Texas Summer 2022

U.S. & Caribbean Weather Discussions and Severe Weather Events

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Forum rules

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.

Help Support Storm2K
Message
Author
Brent
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 36121
Age: 34
Joined: Sun May 16, 2004 10:30 pm
Location: Tulsa Oklahoma
Contact:

Re: Texas Summer 2022

#901 Postby Brent » Fri Aug 05, 2022 9:18 pm

Winter Storm Warning in Alaska :double:

Soon the heat will at least not be endless
4 likes   
#neversummer

User avatar
captainbarbossa19
Category 4
Category 4
Posts: 966
Joined: Wed Aug 21, 2019 11:09 pm
Location: Starkville, MS

Re: Texas Summer 2022

#902 Postby captainbarbossa19 » Fri Aug 05, 2022 11:06 pm

Brent wrote:Winter Storm Warning in Alaska :double:

Soon the heat will at least not be endless


I want snow this winter after this less than ideal summer. Is it too much to ask? If I can't have snow, rain would be great, but not freezing rain. :cold:
3 likes   

cstrunk
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 255
Joined: Sat Jul 04, 2020 10:38 am
Location: Longview, TX

Re: Texas Summer 2022

#903 Postby cstrunk » Sat Aug 06, 2022 12:16 pm

Longview did hit 100F yesterday. So close to getting a decent rain from nearby storms but only ended up with 0.14". Parts of SE Longview reported storm damage from what they claimed was a tornado but it was probably a microburst.
0 likes   

cstrunk
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 255
Joined: Sat Jul 04, 2020 10:38 am
Location: Longview, TX

Re: Texas Summer 2022

#904 Postby cstrunk » Sat Aug 06, 2022 3:46 pm

cstrunk wrote:Longview did hit 100F yesterday. So close to getting a decent rain from nearby storms but only ended up with 0.14". Parts of SE Longview reported storm damage from what they claimed was a tornado but it was probably a microburst.


Wow, NWS survey confirmed downburst with 105 mph maximum winds.

I don't think there was even a warning.
1 likes   

aggiecutter
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1708
Joined: Thu Oct 14, 2004 9:22 pm
Location: Texarkana

Re: Texas Summer 2022

#905 Postby aggiecutter » Sat Aug 06, 2022 6:39 pm

Image
0 likes   

cstrunk
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 255
Joined: Sat Jul 04, 2020 10:38 am
Location: Longview, TX

Re: Texas Summer 2022

#906 Postby cstrunk » Sun Aug 07, 2022 2:15 am

97F for the high today and 0.03" of rain... :spam:
0 likes   

Ntxw
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 19609
Joined: Wed Oct 21, 2009 6:34 pm
Location: DFW, Texas

Re: Texas Summer 2022

#907 Postby Ntxw » Sun Aug 07, 2022 9:03 am

Keep an eye on the system/hurricane formation southeast of Hawaii. Models develop and send it past the IDL linking up with N Pacific trough. This shakes up the ridge over the Aleutian islands. That would be a pattern change kind of like a pseudo Typhoon recurve. I think this is why some ensemble runs have been developing ridges on the coasts.
3 likes   
The above post and any post by Ntxw is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including Storm2k. For official information, please refer to NWS products.

  Help support Storm2K!
Help Support Storm2K

Ntxw
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 19609
Joined: Wed Oct 21, 2009 6:34 pm
Location: DFW, Texas

Re: Texas Summer 2022

#908 Postby Ntxw » Sun Aug 07, 2022 9:09 am

Also DFW did not hit 100 yesterday only 99.
0 likes   
The above post and any post by Ntxw is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including Storm2k. For official information, please refer to NWS products.



  Help support Storm2K!

Help Support Storm2K


User avatar
bubba hotep
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 4376
Joined: Wed Dec 28, 2016 1:00 am
Location: Collin County Texas

Re: Texas Summer 2022

#909 Postby bubba hotep » Sun Aug 07, 2022 3:30 pm

Certainly looks like there should be more widespread rain across N. Texas next week. Not drought busting by any means but looks like a lot more people will see rain than the last system.
1 likes   
Winter time post are almost exclusively focused on the DFW area.

underthwx
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1744
Joined: Sat Jul 30, 2011 2:14 pm
Location: Brazoria County

Re: Texas Summer 2022

#910 Postby underthwx » Sun Aug 07, 2022 4:17 pm

bubba hotep wrote:Certainly looks like there should be more widespread rain across N. Texas next week. Not drought busting by any means but looks like a lot more people will see rain than the last system.


Sounds good Bubba, send some down here bro!
5 likes   

aggiecutter
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1708
Joined: Thu Oct 14, 2004 9:22 pm
Location: Texarkana

Re: Texas Summer 2022

#911 Postby aggiecutter » Sun Aug 07, 2022 8:38 pm

Image
1 likes   

lukem
Tropical Depression
Tropical Depression
Posts: 98
Joined: Wed Feb 17, 2010 2:53 pm

Re: Texas Summer 2022

#912 Postby lukem » Mon Aug 08, 2022 9:10 am

GFS finally giving Texas some hope for rain after a pretty long stretch of nothing. I've been waiting for these runs to show up!
5 likes   

User avatar
Edwards Limestone
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 106
Age: 33
Joined: Tue Dec 28, 2021 11:05 am
Location: Hollywood Park & Comal County, TX

Re: Texas Summer 2022

#913 Postby Edwards Limestone » Mon Aug 08, 2022 10:45 am

lukem wrote:GFS finally giving Texas some hope for rain after a pretty long stretch of nothing. I've been waiting for these runs to show up!


But then you remember it's the GFS... :double:
0 likes   

User avatar
Iceresistance
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 6105
Age: 19
Joined: Sat Oct 10, 2020 9:45 am
Location: Tecumseh, OK

Re: Texas Summer 2022

#914 Postby Iceresistance » Mon Aug 08, 2022 5:22 pm

Storms would not stop teasing me! :grr:
3 likes   
Bill 2015 & Beta 2020

Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

Also many Oklahoma Supercells

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

My posts are NOT Endorsed by S2K, NHC or SPC, please look up the SPC, NHC & NWS for more info.

Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!

rwfromkansas
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1407
Joined: Sat Aug 27, 2005 12:47 am
Location: North Fort Worth

Re: Texas Summer 2022

#915 Postby rwfromkansas » Mon Aug 08, 2022 6:32 pm

It’s bad when we are getting excited about maybe .10 to at best .50 of rain.
2 likes   

Brent
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 36121
Age: 34
Joined: Sun May 16, 2004 10:30 pm
Location: Tulsa Oklahoma
Contact:

Re: Texas Summer 2022

#916 Postby Brent » Mon Aug 08, 2022 8:23 pm

Iceresistance wrote:Storms would not stop teasing me! :grr:


This stupid humidity reminds me of the beach without the beach :lol: :spam:
0 likes   
#neversummer

User avatar
South Texas Storms
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 3779
Joined: Thu Jun 24, 2010 12:28 am
Location: Houston, TX

Re: Texas Summer 2022

#917 Postby South Texas Storms » Mon Aug 08, 2022 8:36 pm

After looking at the latest Euro Weeklies run along with the past few runs of the operational and ensemble data, I'm becoming more optimistic that the hottest days of the year are behind us. If the latest model guidance verifies, we should see an upper-level trough develop across the Central and Eastern U.S. in the 1-2 week time frame. This should push the heat ridge into the Western U.S. with near to slightly below normal temperatures in TX. Rain chances will also likely accompany this feature for at least a few days.
4 likes   

Ntxw
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 19609
Joined: Wed Oct 21, 2009 6:34 pm
Location: DFW, Texas

Re: Texas Summer 2022

#918 Postby Ntxw » Mon Aug 08, 2022 8:54 pm

South Texas Storms wrote:After looking at the latest Euro Weeklies run along with the past few runs of the operational and ensemble data, I'm becoming more optimistic that the hottest days of the year are behind us. If the latest model guidance verifies, we should see an upper-level trough develop across the Central and Eastern U.S. in the 1-2 week time frame. This should push the heat ridge into the Western U.S. with near to slightly below normal temperatures in TX. Rain chances will also likely accompany this feature for at least a few days.


I concur the north Pacific pattern is looking to get a little better. We should see a retrograding weakness.

My only concern is the SOI is still too stubbornly high so cautious with any meaningful rain prospect. But will take anything at this point. If Fall doesn't deliver history of past droughts tell us the next stage will be hydrological, meaning lake levels will be the next problem. A lot hinges on the coming 2nd wet season.
3 likes   
The above post and any post by Ntxw is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including Storm2k. For official information, please refer to NWS products.



  Help support Storm2K!

Help Support Storm2K


User avatar
jasons2k
Storm2k Executive
Storm2k Executive
Posts: 7913
Age: 48
Joined: Wed Jul 06, 2005 12:32 pm
Location: The Woodlands, TX

Re: Texas Summer 2022

#919 Postby jasons2k » Tue Aug 09, 2022 7:33 am

Morning update from Jeff Lindner:

Widespread showers and thunderstorms will be possible late Wednesday-Saturday.

After months of drought and heat it finally appears that much of the area will see some relief this week as several factors combine to bring widespread rains to the area. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will again develop along the seabreeze today…these storms will have the potential to produce lightning induced fires (as seen yesterday over east Texas). Wednesday starts the same as today, but changes begin by afternoon as a decent shortwave in the developing eastern US trough digs southward over the MS valley. This feature will likely help to enhance showers and thunderstorms over SE TX with this activity lasting well into the evening hours on Wednesday. On Thursday a mid level low along the northern Gulf coast moves westward and into Texas with numerous showers and thunderstorms likely. Moisture levels will become increasingly saturated with PWS of 2.0-2.3 inches late Wednesday-Saturday and this will support some heavy rainfall with the stronger storms. Coverage of showers and thunderstorms both Thursday and Friday is in the 60-70% range for much of the area including the very parched western and northwestern areas.

High moisture levels linger into the weekend with a weak boundary drifting southward from the north. This will likely keep a good chance of showers and thunderstorms ongoing into Saturday. With increasing clouds, moisture, and rain chances temperatures will likely fall short of average highs for the first time in a long time on Thursday and Friday.

Fire Weather:
Last several days have featured numerous grass and wildfires over the region including a 400 acre fire near Lake Somerville which burned 2 homes and threatened 13 others. This fire was quickly fanned by strong thunderstorm outflow winds of 40-50mph which resulted in extensive burn rates and crowning/spotting. Yesterday evening, several fires started due to lightning in eastern Texas from Jasper County into Trinity and Polk Counties. Weather conditions continue to be generally unfavorable for the development and spread of fires, but vegetation and the background drought state is compensating for the light winds and higher humidity levels. Relief in the form of widespread showers and thunderstorms later this week should help reduce fuel load dryness to some degree.

Tropics:
A tropical wave over the far eastern Atlantic Ocean (97L) is moving westward with limited thunderstorm activity and organization. This wave has about a 40% chance of development into a tropical cyclone over the next few days before conditions become increasingly unfavorable with stable air and increasing wind shear.

Jeff Lindner
Director Hydrologic Operations Division/Meteorologist
Harris County Flood Control District
1 likes   

cstrunk
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 255
Joined: Sat Jul 04, 2020 10:38 am
Location: Longview, TX

Re: Texas Summer 2022

#920 Postby cstrunk » Tue Aug 09, 2022 9:56 am

NWS SHV seems pretty optimistic that a ETX (and the rest of their forecast area) could see 1-3"+ of rain over the next couple of days. Let's hope so.
3 likes   


Return to “USA & Caribbean Weather”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: A1A and 7 guests