Texas Summer 2022

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SoupBone
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Re: Texas Summer 2022

#981 Postby SoupBone » Fri Aug 12, 2022 12:05 am

We getting a tropical system this weekend? Where's Wxman57?
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Re: Texas Summer 2022

#982 Postby Cpv17 » Fri Aug 12, 2022 7:56 am

SoupBone wrote:We getting a tropical system this weekend? Where's Wxman57?


Probably going towards Corpus Christi. Most of the rain should stay south of Houston.
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Re: Texas Summer 2022

#983 Postby Iceresistance » Fri Aug 12, 2022 7:58 am

I've noticed that part of Western Mexico is being clobbered with the Monsoon Rainfall with more coming per WPC, could this factor what's going to happen in Texas in the near future?
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Re: Texas Summer 2022

#984 Postby Iceresistance » Fri Aug 12, 2022 8:54 am

Next 5 Days, All of Southern Texas at the Rio Grande may be impacted by this system.

Image
https://s4.gifyu.com/images/gfs_apcpn_scus_20.png

(I do want to mention that the 6z GFS has a HUGE amount of rainfall for Oklahoma and Texas by 15 days, but it's too far out for me to show Y'all)
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Re: Texas Summer 2022

#985 Postby SoupBone » Fri Aug 12, 2022 9:00 am

Iceresistance wrote:Next 5 Days, All of Southern Texas at the Rio Grande may be impacted by this system.

https://s4.gifyu.com/images/gfs_apcpn_scus_20.png
https://s4.gifyu.com/images/gfs_apcpn_scus_20.png

(I do want to mention that the 6z GFS has a HUGE amount of rainfall for Oklahoma and Texas by 15 days, but it's too far out for me to show Y'all)


I'll take 2 inches of rain, bring it on.
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Re: Texas Summer 2022

#986 Postby Cpv17 » Fri Aug 12, 2022 9:38 am

SoupBone wrote:
Iceresistance wrote:Next 5 Days, All of Southern Texas at the Rio Grande may be impacted by this system.

https://s4.gifyu.com/images/gfs_apcpn_scus_20.png
https://s4.gifyu.com/images/gfs_apcpn_scus_20.png

(I do want to mention that the 6z GFS has a HUGE amount of rainfall for Oklahoma and Texas by 15 days, but it's too far out for me to show Y'all)


I'll take 2 inches of rain, bring it on.


That shows about half an inch for your area.
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Re: Texas Summer 2022

#987 Postby Iceresistance » Fri Aug 12, 2022 9:46 am

Cpv17 wrote:
SoupBone wrote:
Iceresistance wrote:Next 5 Days, All of Southern Texas at the Rio Grande may be impacted by this system.

https://s4.gifyu.com/images/gfs_apcpn_scus_20.png
https://s4.gifyu.com/images/gfs_apcpn_scus_20.png

(I do want to mention that the 6z GFS has a HUGE amount of rainfall for Oklahoma and Texas by 15 days, but it's too far out for me to show Y'all)


I'll take 2 inches of rain, bring it on.


That shows about half an inch for your area.

Corpus Christi has 2 inches of rain on the model, Pinkish color = 2 inches.
Blue from Green = .5 inch.
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Re: Texas Summer 2022

#988 Postby Ntxw » Fri Aug 12, 2022 9:58 am

Iceresistance wrote:Next 5 Days, All of Southern Texas at the Rio Grande may be impacted by this system.

https://s4.gifyu.com/images/gfs_apcpn_scus_20.png
https://s4.gifyu.com/images/gfs_apcpn_scus_20.png

(I do want to mention that the 6z GFS has a HUGE amount of rainfall for Oklahoma and Texas by 15 days, but it's too far out for me to show Y'all)


I believe in the temperature and trough relief but still kind of feeling some hesitancy with any qpf forecast. It's almost mid August and if the models were right with qpf early month we'd be sitting at 2-3" already but so far 0.41". It's better off taking the low end, even this past week it was nice having any rain and clouds but the totals overall for the state is somewhat lackluster. That's just the background state and drought making a mark.

Better (relative) rains will likely come when the PVa/gradient shifts south with the seasons.
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Re: Texas Summer 2022

#989 Postby jasons2k » Fri Aug 12, 2022 10:15 am

The donut hole over Texas just keeps getting bigger with each QPF update…
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Re: Texas Summer 2022

#990 Postby Iceresistance » Fri Aug 12, 2022 10:53 am

jasons2k wrote:The donut hole over Texas just keeps getting bigger with each QPF update…


It appears that the models are underestimating the Texas Cockroach Death Ridge. :(
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Re: Texas Summer 2022

#991 Postby rwfromkansas » Fri Aug 12, 2022 12:53 pm

Will that tropical system screw Texas out of rain that was supposed to happen later?

I mean, today's GFS and yesterday's Euro had virtually no rain.

Not sure what the CPC is smoking.
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Re: Texas Summer 2022

#992 Postby Iceresistance » Fri Aug 12, 2022 1:01 pm

rwfromkansas wrote:Will that tropical system screw Texas out of rain that was supposed to happen later?

I mean, today's GFS and yesterday's Euro had virtually no rain.

Not sure what the CPC is smoking.


Just wait a couple of weeks . . .
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020

Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

Also many Oklahoma Supercells

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

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Re: Texas Summer 2022

#993 Postby EnnisTx » Fri Aug 12, 2022 2:00 pm

Cpv17 wrote:
SoupBone wrote:
Iceresistance wrote:Next 5 Days, All of Southern Texas at the Rio Grande may be impacted by this system.

https://s4.gifyu.com/images/gfs_apcpn_scus_20.png
https://s4.gifyu.com/images/gfs_apcpn_scus_20.png

(I do want to mention that the 6z GFS has a HUGE amount of rainfall for Oklahoma and Texas by 15 days, but it's too far out for me to show Y'all)


I'll take 2 inches of rain, bring it on.


That shows about half an inch for your area.


You know men always exaggerate inches! :P :P
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Re: Texas Summer 2022

#994 Postby aggiecutter » Fri Aug 12, 2022 2:18 pm

Image
Last edited by aggiecutter on Fri Aug 12, 2022 2:21 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Texas Summer 2022

#995 Postby aggiecutter » Fri Aug 12, 2022 2:21 pm

Image
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Re: Texas Summer 2022

#996 Postby Cpv17 » Fri Aug 12, 2022 5:31 pm

EnnisTx wrote:
Cpv17 wrote:
SoupBone wrote:
I'll take 2 inches of rain, bring it on.


That shows about half an inch for your area.


You know men always exaggerate inches! :P :P


Oh geez :lol:
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Re: Texas Summer 2022

#997 Postby cycloneye » Fri Aug 12, 2022 6:01 pm

Hopefully, 98L brings good rains to part of the state that needs it so much.
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Re: Texas Summer 2022

#998 Postby Rgv20 » Fri Aug 12, 2022 8:52 pm

0zHRRR thru Saturday afternoon...has a decent representation on Satellite.

Image


18zECMWF starting to show some heavy rainfall totals widespread 5+ inches thru midday Monday
Image
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Re: Texas Summer 2022

#999 Postby cstrunk » Fri Aug 12, 2022 9:39 pm

Wow, a rogue thunderstorm dropped 0.63" at my house in Longview tonight - very unexpected!! It wasn't very big either, just went straight over my house.
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Re: Texas Summer 2022

#1000 Postby SoupBone » Sat Aug 13, 2022 9:55 am

Iceresistance wrote:
rwfromkansas wrote:Will that tropical system screw Texas out of rain that was supposed to happen later?

I mean, today's GFS and yesterday's Euro had virtually no rain.

Not sure what the CPC is smoking.


Just wait a couple of weeks . . .


Can't keep kicking that can, eventually these rain forecasts have to be called busts. So man days of high percentage rain forecasts where we get no rain at all.
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