Texas Fall 2022

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Iceresistance
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Re: Texas Fall 2022

#281 Postby Iceresistance » Wed Oct 05, 2022 5:44 am

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Re: Texas Fall 2022

#282 Postby bubba hotep » Wed Oct 05, 2022 2:12 pm

There are still differences across the models but they are pointing to a pretty good rain setup for Texas. A big cutoff low to our West and a wide open Gulf and EPAC. We could see some big totals and widespread coverage.
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Re: Texas Fall 2022

#283 Postby Edwards Limestone » Wed Oct 05, 2022 4:52 pm

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Re: Texas Fall 2022

#284 Postby Iceresistance » Wed Oct 05, 2022 7:21 pm

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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020

Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

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Re: Texas Fall 2022

#285 Postby bubba hotep » Wed Oct 05, 2022 8:44 pm

Image
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Re: Texas Fall 2022

#286 Postby weatherdude1108 » Wed Oct 05, 2022 9:23 pm

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Re: Texas Fall 2022

#287 Postby Cpv17 » Wed Oct 05, 2022 9:30 pm



I don’t really see it yet on the models but that’s a good sign for sure. Hopefully it’ll start popping up on the models soon.
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Re: Texas Fall 2022

#288 Postby Tireman4 » Thu Oct 06, 2022 8:41 am

And speaking of models, the HGX Pro Met, Batiste is a funny guy..

Global models are still pointing towards a deeper upper level trough
digging down into the Northwestern CONUS mid next week that could be
the source of a stronger cold front towards the end of the week.
Uncertainty still remains with it being more than a week out, but
I choose to be hopeful! NBM temperature trends have been downward
after Thursday for the past few days. If I was doing a Lee Corso
style headgear pick for this, I`d have a cold front on my head...
#TeamFROPA


Batiste
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Re: Texas Fall 2022

#289 Postby Edwards Limestone » Thu Oct 06, 2022 8:48 am

Tireman4 wrote:And speaking of models, the HGX Pro Met, Batiste is a funny guy..

Global models are still pointing towards a deeper upper level trough
digging down into the Northwestern CONUS mid next week that could be
the source of a stronger cold front towards the end of the week.
Uncertainty still remains with it being more than a week out, but
I choose to be hopeful! NBM temperature trends have been downward
after Thursday for the past few days. [b]If I was doing a Lee Corso
style headgear pick for this, I`d have a cold front on my head...

#TeamFROPA[/b]

Batiste


:lol: :lol: :lol:
Image
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Re: Texas Fall 2022

#290 Postby Ntxw » Thu Oct 06, 2022 8:52 am

If you look at 500mb charts currently there is a cutoff low/trof in the southwest and digging tof in the E-Central US. Typical patterns as such other years in October would yield chances for rain and much cooler temperatures. But currently that is not the case at the surface.

Ensembles show a change in the North Pacific medium to long term. I'm more optimistic on 'cooler' fronts, meaning a shot of air that is more than getting to normals. SOI + streak has passed 40 days since the last negative reading.
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Re: Texas Fall 2022

#291 Postby jasons2k » Thu Oct 06, 2022 10:41 am

This is currently my longest rain-free period since 2011. We need rain very badly.
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Re: Texas Fall 2022

#292 Postby Ntxw » Thu Oct 06, 2022 11:15 am

DFW too is going through second stretch of such anomalous dry spell.

Image

Tidbit...outside of 2015 and 1999 the following winters were pretty chilly on this list.
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Re: Texas Fall 2022

#293 Postby lukem » Thu Oct 06, 2022 12:31 pm

Ntxw wrote:DFW too is going through second stretch of such anomalous dry spell.

https://i.imgur.com/z7u2Bux.png

Tidbit...outside of 2015 and 1999 the following winters were pretty chilly on this list.


That chart is very surprising to me. Seems like Texas goes months without rain all the time. I'm in West Texas, so my perspective is probably just skewed (we went almost a year without rain in 2010/2011).
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Re: Texas Fall 2022

#294 Postby cheezyWXguy » Thu Oct 06, 2022 12:54 pm

Ntxw wrote:If you look at 500mb charts currently there is a cutoff low/trof in the southwest and digging tof in the E-Central US. Typical patterns as such other years in October would yield chances for rain and much cooler temperatures. But currently that is not the case at the surface.

Ensembles show a change in the North Pacific medium to long term. I'm more optimistic on 'cooler' fronts, meaning a shot of air that is more than getting to normals. SOI + streak has passed 40 days since the last negative reading.

I’ve been wondering about the prospect of southern plains severe weather later this season. Not anytime soon, obviously, but given that…
- the western gulf has remained warm and untapped by TCs (source of moisture/instability)
- NM and AZ saw drought improvement a month or so ago (more limited CIN)
- the southern plains are expected to have normal/above normal temps for the foreseeable future, in contrast with expected colder than normal conditions in the northern US
…it seems like some of the ingredients are there once troughs start digging deeper as we get into fall. Any thoughts?
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Re: Texas Fall 2022

#295 Postby Ntxw » Thu Oct 06, 2022 1:15 pm

lukem wrote:
Ntxw wrote:DFW too is going through second stretch of such anomalous dry spell.

https://i.imgur.com/z7u2Bux.png

Tidbit...outside of 2015 and 1999 the following winters were pretty chilly on this list.


That chart is very surprising to me. Seems like Texas goes months without rain all the time. I'm in West Texas, so my perspective is probably just skewed (we went almost a year without rain in 2010/2011).


Western half of Texas is arid so yes it is common. But the eastern half no, subtropical climate closer to the southeast than desert southwest. Hot and dry is common but there is always some storms or infrequent rains to cut into the stretches typically even during the hot stretches.
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Re: Texas Fall 2022

#296 Postby Ntxw » Thu Oct 06, 2022 1:16 pm

cheezyWXguy wrote:
Ntxw wrote:If you look at 500mb charts currently there is a cutoff low/trof in the southwest and digging tof in the E-Central US. Typical patterns as such other years in October would yield chances for rain and much cooler temperatures. But currently that is not the case at the surface.

Ensembles show a change in the North Pacific medium to long term. I'm more optimistic on 'cooler' fronts, meaning a shot of air that is more than getting to normals. SOI + streak has passed 40 days since the last negative reading.

I’ve been wondering about the prospect of southern plains severe weather later this season. Not anytime soon, obviously, but given that…
- the western gulf has remained warm and untapped by TCs (source of moisture/instability)
- NM and AZ saw drought improvement a month or so ago (more limited CIN)
- the southern plains are expected to have normal/above normal temps for the foreseeable future, in contrast with expected colder than normal conditions in the northern US
…it seems like some of the ingredients are there once troughs start digging deeper as we get into fall. Any thoughts?


Admittedly severe weather is a learning curve for me. Trough configuration you'd think provide the parameters for severe weather. But to get it still has to rain, need some kind of moisture influx. What it can allow is a wider window deep into fall due to the warmth, but something has to take advantage of it.
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Re: Texas Fall 2022

#297 Postby weatherdude1108 » Thu Oct 06, 2022 2:24 pm

Ntxw wrote:
lukem wrote:
Ntxw wrote:DFW too is going through second stretch of such anomalous dry spell.

https://i.imgur.com/z7u2Bux.png

Tidbit...outside of 2015 and 1999 the following winters were pretty chilly on this list.


That chart is very surprising to me. Seems like Texas goes months without rain all the time. I'm in West Texas, so my perspective is probably just skewed (we went almost a year without rain in 2010/2011).


Western half of Texas is arid so yes it is common. But the eastern half no, subtropical climate closer to the southeast than desert southwest. Hot and dry is common but there is always some storms or infrequent rains to cut into the stretches typically even during the hot stretches.


September 7th was the last time it rained at my place. Seems like longer. :roll:
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Re: Texas Fall 2022

#298 Postby Iceresistance » Thu Oct 06, 2022 2:45 pm

weatherdude1108 wrote:
Ntxw wrote:
lukem wrote:
That chart is very surprising to me. Seems like Texas goes months without rain all the time. I'm in West Texas, so my perspective is probably just skewed (we went almost a year without rain in 2010/2011).


Western half of Texas is arid so yes it is common. But the eastern half no, subtropical climate closer to the southeast than desert southwest. Hot and dry is common but there is always some storms or infrequent rains to cut into the stretches typically even during the hot stretches.


September 7th was the last time it rained at my place. Seems like longer. :roll:


My last substantial rainfall was September 7th as well.
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020

Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!

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Re: Texas Fall 2022

#299 Postby Iceresistance » Thu Oct 06, 2022 2:48 pm

And just like that, the heavy rainfall risk for the Southern Plains is gone. This is getting extremely old, stupid Cockroach Death Ridge! :grr:
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020

Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!

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Re: Texas Fall 2022

#300 Postby starsfan65 » Thu Oct 06, 2022 3:08 pm

Iceresistance wrote:And just like that, the heavy rainfall risk for the Southern Plains is gone. This is getting extremely old, stupid Cockroach Death Ridge! :grr:
How is it gone?
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