Texas Fall 2022

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harp
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Re: Texas Fall 2022

#1441 Postby harp » Fri Nov 25, 2022 8:31 pm

Iceresistance wrote:If the PNA refuses to become negative or become a weaker negative only to return to neutral faster than expected, this could have huge implications down the road for winter weather here.
Explain please
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Re: Texas Fall 2022

#1442 Postby Iceresistance » Fri Nov 25, 2022 8:40 pm

harp wrote:
Iceresistance wrote:If the PNA refuses to become negative or become a weaker negative only to return to neutral faster than expected, this could have huge implications down the road for winter weather here.
Explain please

-PNA favors cold in the west with a NW Trough and SE Ridge, positive PNA features the Eastern Trough and NW Ridge, the cold air is more likely to be dumped in the Eastern United States.

The Neutral PNA allows the cold air to be dumped in the Central USA, the most favorable setup regiment for us for cold air is the Neutral PNA/-EPO/-AO/-NAO.
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Re: Texas Fall 2022

#1443 Postby bubba hotep » Fri Nov 25, 2022 11:27 pm

It's going to be a stormy night across Texas

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Winter time post are almost exclusively focused on the DFW area.

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Re: Texas Fall 2022

#1444 Postby gpsnowman » Fri Nov 25, 2022 11:37 pm

Saturday could be a soaker. The cold will come with one these systems down the road into winter and then watch out. I hope.
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Re: Texas Fall 2022

#1445 Postby Iceresistance » Fri Nov 25, 2022 11:41 pm

The GFS is too inconsistent after this month, different solutions every run!
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Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

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Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

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Re: Texas Fall 2022

#1446 Postby harp » Sat Nov 26, 2022 12:25 am

The GFS is probably the most inconsistent that I can recall in a long time. After 160 or so hours it’s been all over the place. Frustrating.
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Re: Texas Fall 2022

#1447 Postby TropicalTundra » Sat Nov 26, 2022 1:22 am

Mid 50's and light rain here. Low pressure is setting up in the gulf which should make for some decent storms for a good while. Already recorded about 2 1/3 of rain from all these storms :rain:
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Re: Texas Fall 2022

#1448 Postby Iceresistance » Sat Nov 26, 2022 9:31 am

The rain is really coming down now.
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Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

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Re: Texas Fall 2022

#1449 Postby bubba hotep » Sat Nov 26, 2022 10:26 am

GFS looks to stay active with multiple storm systems impacting the Southern Plains over the next two weeks.

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Re: Texas Fall 2022

#1450 Postby bubba hotep » Sat Nov 26, 2022 10:33 am

DFW is officially above normal for yearly rainfall, and this is now the 3rd wettest Nov since 2020. Also, DFW is now almost 2" above average for the period starting Sept 1, after only picking up 0.33" in Sept.
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Re: Texas Fall 2022

#1451 Postby Iceresistance » Sat Nov 26, 2022 10:55 am

bubba hotep wrote:DFW is officially above normal for yearly rainfall, and this is now the 3rd wettest Nov since 2020. Also, DFW is now almost 2" above average for the period starting Sept 1, after only picking up 0.33" in Sept.

That is likely one of the greatest rainfall comebacks I have ever seen! 2022 would be a story to remember!
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020

Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!

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Re: Texas Fall 2022

#1452 Postby bubba hotep » Sat Nov 26, 2022 10:58 am

Iceresistance wrote:
bubba hotep wrote:DFW is officially above normal for yearly rainfall, and this is now the 3rd wettest Nov since 2020. Also, DFW is now almost 2" above average for the period starting Sept 1, after only picking up 0.33" in Sept.

That is likely one of the greatest rainfall comebacks I have ever seen! 2022 would be a story to remember!


Obviously, the big storm in August helped this, which is odd b/c August is typically our driest month. However, the flip for Oct/Nov has been very impressive, and the Euro Weeklies look to keep the wet pattern going into January.
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Winter time post are almost exclusively focused on the DFW area.

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Re: Texas Fall 2022

#1453 Postby Ntxw » Sat Nov 26, 2022 12:00 pm

bubba hotep wrote:
Iceresistance wrote:
bubba hotep wrote:DFW is officially above normal for yearly rainfall, and this is now the 3rd wettest Nov since 2020. Also, DFW is now almost 2" above average for the period starting Sept 1, after only picking up 0.33" in Sept.

That is likely one of the greatest rainfall comebacks I have ever seen! 2022 would be a story to remember!


Obviously, the big storm in August helped this, which is odd b/c August is typically our driest month. However, the flip for Oct/Nov has been very impressive, and the Euro Weeklies look to keep the wet pattern going into January.


Best guess the next couple of months the atmosphere will have tendencies of a growing El Nino.

Image
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The above post and any post by Ntxw is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including Storm2k. For official information, please refer to NWS products.

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Re: Texas Fall 2022

#1454 Postby Iceresistance » Sat Nov 26, 2022 12:50 pm

Rain gauge shows 1.1 inches since early this morning! :D
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020

Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!

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Re: Texas Fall 2022

#1455 Postby Iceresistance » Sat Nov 26, 2022 1:30 pm

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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020

Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!

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Re: Texas Fall 2022

#1456 Postby Itryatgolf » Sat Nov 26, 2022 1:45 pm


The million dollar question is getting it timed with enough cold and moisture, which is tough in the southern Plains and mid south
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Re: Texas Fall 2022

#1457 Postby harp » Sat Nov 26, 2022 2:30 pm

As long as that SE ridge stays in place, I don’t know how far south that cold air will get. I stopped even looking at the GFS. It’s frustrating.
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Re: Texas Fall 2022

#1458 Postby Cpv17 » Sat Nov 26, 2022 2:40 pm

harp wrote:As long as that SE ridge stays in place, I don’t know how far south that cold air will get. I stopped even looking at the GFS. It’s frustrating.


Remember, cold shallow air is very dense. Once it gets rolling, it’s hard to stop it. The models don’t handle these scenarios well.
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Re: Texas Fall 2022

#1459 Postby TeamPlayersBlue » Sat Nov 26, 2022 4:18 pm

869MB wrote:FYI…

In addition to utilizing your local NWS pinpoint forecasts and weather apps, I would strongly recommend also utilizing the National Blend of Models 1D Viewer when determining your local temperature, wind, and precipitation forecasts. Just click on the menu option in the upper right corner to select the point on the map that’s the closest to your location. The link below gives you a good example of what the data looks like…

https://hwp-viz.gsd.esrl.noaa.gov/wave1d/?col=2&hgt=1&obs=true&fontsize=1&location=KIWS&selectedgroup=Default&darkmode=auto&graph=fa-chart-bar&probfield=Tmax&proboperator=%3E%3D&probvalue=40&whiskers=false&boxes=true&median=false&det=true&tz=local&colorfriendly=false

This is incredible, thank you!
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Re: Texas Fall 2022

#1460 Postby Brent » Sat Nov 26, 2022 4:20 pm

Itryatgolf wrote:

The million dollar question is getting it timed with enough cold and moisture, which is tough in the southern Plains and mid south


I mean there's never guarantees but I'd much rather have this wet pattern we appear to be getting into... The cold will probably come sooner or later. Look at how many times it has snowed west of here already and it's only November(heck 2 flizzards here already). I never saw flakes before January last year
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