2023 Severe Weather

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cycloneye
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Re: 2023 Severe Weather

#41 Postby cycloneye » Thu Mar 02, 2023 5:31 am

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Texas Spring 2023

#42 Postby cycloneye » Thu Mar 02, 2023 7:29 am

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Re: 2023 Severe Weather

#43 Postby cycloneye » Thu Mar 02, 2023 11:42 am

The moderate risk area has been expanded west to include the DFW area.

 https://twitter.com/NWSSPC/status/1631331315789307912


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Re: 2023 Severe Weather

#44 Postby ElectricStorm » Sat Mar 04, 2023 1:18 pm

Might need to watch the 3/10-3/12 timeframe for another round of severe weather for the south/Dixie alley. May have a couple smaller-setup days before then
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Re: 2023 Severe Weather

#45 Postby cycloneye » Tue Mar 07, 2023 8:11 pm

Preliminary total of Febuary was 53.

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Re: 2023 Severe Weather

#46 Postby cycloneye » Sun Mar 12, 2023 12:08 pm

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Re: 2023 Severe Weather

#47 Postby Iceresistance » Thu Mar 23, 2023 9:04 am

Moderate Risk already along the Mississippi River in Mississippi and Louisiana
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Re: 2023 Severe Weather

#48 Postby captainbarbossa19 » Thu Mar 23, 2023 3:35 pm

Iceresistance wrote:Moderate Risk already along the Mississippi River in Mississippi and Louisiana


Yep. Looks like tomorrow will be busy for me.
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Re: 2023 Severe Weather

#49 Postby ElectricStorm » Fri Mar 24, 2023 1:11 am

Day 1 outlook expands the moderate risk area a bit and includes some very strong wording in the discussion.
Image

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1256 AM CDT Fri Mar 24 2023

Valid 241200Z - 251200Z

...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
An outbreak of severe weather is expected from the Lower Mississippi
Valley toward the lower Ohio Valley Friday afternoon and evening.
Tornadoes, strong to potentially intense, as well as damaging winds
and hail are expected.

***Tornado Outbreak Possible Across Portions of the Mid Mississippi
Valley Friday Evening***

...Synopsis...
A mid-level trough can be seen on water vapor east of the northern
Baja Peninsula this morning. This trough will move quickly across
the southern Plains through the day and into the Mid
Mississippi/Lower Ohio Valley by Saturday morning. A very strong
mid-level jet (90-100 knots) will develop as this wave impinges on a
strong upper-level High across the Southeast.

Broad warm air advection is expected across the Mid-Mississippi
Valley during the day Friday with a strengthening low-level jet
through the day. Significant mass response is expected across this
area by early evening as the mid-level trough approaches the area.
As a result, the surface low will deepen rapidly between 00Z to 06Z
to around 992-994mb in the southern Illinois/Indiana vicinity.
During this period of rapid deepening, a warm front which is
forecast to be mostly stationary from northeast Arkansas to central
Tennessee during most of the day, will start to move quickly north
during the late afternoon with the northern extent of the warm
sector depicted by the approximate path of the surface low.

...Mid Mississippi Valley...
Thunderstorms will be ongoing at the beginning of the period across
eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas. Some embedded supercells are
possible with the threat for a few weak tornadoes. Most guidance is
consistent with the convectively enhanced cold front drifting south
into north-central/northeast Arkansas in the morning. Therefore,
this early activity will likely wane as it interacts with this
southward moving front by late morning.

A pocket of drier air can be seen on water vapor moving north in the
west-central Gulf early this morning. This is associated with a
relative minimum in PWAT which will overspread eastern Louisiana and
much of Mississippi during the late morning and through the
afternoon. This seems to be responsible for the significant mixing
and surface dewpoint reductions seen my much of the guidance across
Mississippi in the afternoon where temperatures warm into low 80s.
However, despite this drier air further east, deep moisture will
remain across the western Gulf and will advect northward into
Louisiana during the afternoon as low-level mass response increases.
By mid to late afternoon, upper 60s to potentially low 70s dewpoints
are expected across northern Louisiana and eastern Arkansas,
spreading into northern Mississippi by the evening. This will lead
to an uncapped warm sector featuring MLCAPE of 500-1000 J/kg up the
Mississippi River to near Memphis and 1500-2000 J/kg farther south
across northern Louisiana and west-central Mississippi.

Expect storms to strengthen during the afternoon as the better
moisture advects northward and destabilizes the airmass ahead of
ongoing activity. CAM guidance is in agreement for a strong QLCS to
develop from central to northern Arkansas during the afternoon. This
line of storms will pose a threat for damaging wind and QLCS
tornadoes given the long, curved low-level hodographs with the best
overlap of favorable shear and instability in the vicinity of the
Mississippi River. This line of storms will eventually outrun the
better instability as it moves toward Middle Tennessee/southern
Kentucky, but the strong low-level jet (~70 kts), and strong forcing
with the deepening surface cyclone will help to maintain some severe
threat well into the overnight despite progressively more meager
instability.

Across southeast Arkansas, northern Louisiana, and northwest
Mississippi, a more volatile environment will develop Friday
evening/early overnight. More discrete convection is anticipated on
the southern periphery of the aforementioned QLCS. The more discrete
mode, combined with greater instability and strong shear should
allow for multiple supercells to develop across northern Louisiana
and southern Arkansas and move northeastward. Low-level hodographs
are very favorable in this region with 0-500m SRH around 200 m2/s2
and 0-1km SRH 300+ m2/s2. Therefore, any sustained supercells will
be capable of producing strong to intense (EF3+) tornadoes, with
long-track tornadoes possible with any longer-lived, undisturbed
supercells.

00Z HREF members showed a variety of solutions which cast some
uncertainty on the forecast. WRF members are notably less bullish
with warm sector supercell development from northeast Louisiana into
northern Mississippi while the HRRR was most aggressive with
convective coverage and environment. After further investigation it
appears the more aggressive HRRR solution can be attributed to a
more robust mass response during the afternoon/early evening hours.
This results in a pronounced shortwave trough which can be seen at
700 and 850mb and reflected as a significant confluence zone at the
surface. Not only does this act as a forcing for storm development,
but it also acts as moisture convergence with a more broad region of
70+F dewpoints. In this scenario, numerous strong tornadoes would be
likely, with the potential for several intense tornadoes. Despite
being the most aggressive, this solution does not seem unreasonable
as similar low-level confluence features can been on both the 00Z
GFS and the 18Z ECMWF.

As is often the case, the severity of the tornado threat across the
moderate risk will be modulated by mesoscale influences in the
region. As the event approaches, these mesoscale effects may become
more clear and allow the greatest risk corridor to become better
defined.

..Bentley/Weinman.. 03/24/2023


If the HRRR continues to look like the 0z run and morning/surface obs support it, I think we could see an upgrade here. Probably a small chance like usual but either way the ceiling for this event is very high. If it does get upgraded it would be the first high risk in almost exactly 2 years, 3/25/21. Overall there's going to be a fine line between a major outbreak and a mostly linear event, hopefully it's the latter.
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Re: 2023 Severe Weather

#50 Postby Iceresistance » Fri Mar 24, 2023 8:49 am

Moderate Risk now includes Memphis, TN
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Re: 2023 Severe Weather

#51 Postby Tireman4 » Fri Mar 24, 2023 3:39 pm

000
FXUS64 KSHV 242037
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
337 PM CDT Fri Mar 24 2023

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Saturday Night)
Issued at 249 PM CDT Fri Mar 24 2023

We are currently monitoring increasing and strengthening
thunderstorms across the Arklatex, along and ahead of a cold
front pushing into far western zones. What is occurring is
meeting our previous expectations for this afternoon as the
combination of the incoming front, strengthening low pressure in
our northwest along the front, and deep lift prompted by an
incoming upper level trough will be increasingly initiating deep
and likely severe thunderstorms the rest of this afternoon across
western and central portions of the region, with this activity
organizing further and advancing out of the Arklatex and into the
Arklamiss in several hours. A mixed mode of supercells and QLCS
activity is expected to march through the Moderate Risk from the
Storm Prediction Center over the Arklamiss and points to the east
over this time frame with hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes
(some strong) all possible this afternoon into at least early this
evening. The latest high resolution guidance consensus suggests
any potent supercells will also carry the potential for large
hail. While the highest severe weather risk will be in the
Moderate risk area, all areas of the Four State region will have
at least some risk of severe storms until this system clears the
region later on tonight. In addition, most of our covered areas of
south-central AR and northern LA are in an Enhanced Risk of severe
storms, if not already in the Moderate Risk itself, and all
locations in or near the Enhanced or Moderate risk have a risk of
experiencing a strong tornado. We expect severe weather to clear
east of the region between 9 to 11 pm tonight, but until then at
least portions of our region will be experiencing severe weather
and everyone needs to be ready to quickly take shelter if under a
tornado warning. Finally, most of our region is under a tornado
watch until 7 pm, with locations in the Arklamiss not currently in
a watch likely to have one issued for them in the not-too-distant
future.

Later tonight as the convection exits entirely and the front
clears east of the region, expect skies to gradually clear from
the west with low temperatures ranging from the mid 40s in the far
northwest to near 60 in the far southeast. The air mass in the
wake of this front is definitely not overly chilly, so tomorrow
should be a nice day with a good amount of sunshine and high
temperatures ranging from near 70 in far northwest zones to around
80 in the far southeast. Clouds should probably wait to increase
much until Sunday morning with seasonably cool low Saturday night
in the 40s and 50s. /50/

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through next Thursday)
Issued at 249 PM CDT Fri Mar 24 2023

The weak cold front driving through the region tonight will be
trying to slowly come back north toward the region as a warm front
by Sunday. Model guidance continues to trend toward more
consensus for showers and mainly elevated thunderstorms across
central and southern zones as another weak wave aloft in southwest
flow triggers convection mainly north of the boundary. There is an
SPC marginal risk for mainly just the southeast portion of our
forecast area on Sunday and this will have to be watched for
potential expansion on later SPC updates. Significant severe
weather does not appear likely, although sufficient deep layer
wind shear and decent temperature lapse rates aloft could be
conducive for at least semi-organized storms producing hail.

Chances for showers and embedded thunderstorms could continue into
Monday for central and southern zones as the aforementioned
boundary gets further activated by another weak disturbance. This
should drive the front back south and latest model trends are more
aggressive with a cool and dry push which could keep us rain free
most of Tuesday and Wednesday, before another, more significant,
upper trough amplifies the perturbed southwest flow pattern over
our region. This will return the boundary back north for Thursday
and Thursday and Friday holds at least some risk for significant
weather from a combination of heavy rain and thunderstorm
concerns. That said, there is still some NWP discrepancies
regarding evolution that far out, so definitely stayed tuned for
further updates in the coming days. /50/

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1236 PM CDT Fri Mar 24 2023

A mix of VFR and MVFR conditions are in place currently across the
forecast area with ceilings ranging from roughly 2 kft to 4 kft
with surface SE to S winds quite gusty, with sustained winds of
15 to 25 mph and gusts up to 30 mph. Scattered showers are
blossoming now across most of the region with thunderstorms
rapidly developing just west of TYR along a cold front moving
toward the region. Expect scattered to numerous strong to severe
thunderstorms moving from west to east across the region from
roughly now through roughly 10 pm. Expect activity to clear TYR by
roughly 4 to 5 pm, clear TXK/SHV/LFK by roughly 5 to 7 pm, and
then clear ELD/MLU by 9 to 10 pm. Severe thunderstorms should be
accompanied by a risk of large hail, winds in excess of 60 mph, a
risk of tornadoes, and IFR to MVFR flight cats. Expect winds to
turn to the SW to W in the wake of the front with conditions
trending rather quickly back to VFR after the storms pass. Some
patchy late night fog cannot be entirely ruled out, with mostly
clear skies and west winds of 10 to 15 mph anticipated tomorrow.
/50/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 55 79 52 77 / 20 0 0 30
MLU 60 81 53 77 / 80 0 0 40
DEQ 48 71 45 74 / 10 0 0 10
TXK 52 73 48 77 / 10 0 0 20
ELD 53 76 48 77 / 50 0 0 30
TYR 51 77 51 77 / 0 0 0 20
GGG 51 77 50 78 / 0 0 0 30
LFK 53 80 52 77 / 10 0 0 40

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM....50
AVIATION...50
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Re: 2023 Severe Weather

#52 Postby captainbarbossa19 » Fri Mar 24, 2023 4:13 pm

Watching closely discrete cells moving into Mississippi from Louisiana. The HRRR shows them, but not near the coverage as currently depicted on radar. These could get ugly in a hurry since some are already producing lightning.
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Re: 2023 Severe Weather

#53 Postby Cpv17 » Fri Mar 24, 2023 5:36 pm

Storm approaching Georgetown, MS looks like it could produce.
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Re: 2023 Severe Weather

#54 Postby ElectricStorm » Fri Mar 24, 2023 7:20 pm

Very poor lapse rates seem to really be hurting this event so far. We'll see if things can pick up a bit over the next few hours but so far it's been very slow. SPC definitely made the right call not upgrading to high.
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Re: 2023 Severe Weather

#55 Postby ElectricStorm » Fri Mar 24, 2023 8:04 pm

Welp, starting to pick up now, PDS warning for the cell near Rolling Fork, MS
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Re: 2023 Severe Weather

#56 Postby cycloneye » Fri Mar 24, 2023 8:13 pm

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Re: 2023 Severe Weather

#57 Postby Bunkertor » Fri Mar 24, 2023 8:36 pm

Mesoscale Discussion 0329
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0824 PM CDT Fri Mar 24 2023

Areas affected...North-central MS

Concerning...Tornado Watch 76...

Valid 250124Z - 250215Z

CORRECTED FOR ERROR IN SPATIAL DELINEATION

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 76 continues.

SUMMARY...An intense tornado (EF3+) is likely ongoing with a
supercell tracking northeastward across western Sharkley County MS,
and this storm should persist for the next 30-60 min.

DISCUSSION...Latest radar data shows an organized cyclonic supercell
tracking northeastward across western Sharkley County MS, with a
VROT above 70 kt and well-defined TDS up to 13k ft -- indicative of
an intense tornado (EF3+) given the parameter space (STP of 4). The
downstream environment features a large, clockwise-curved hodograph
per DGX VWP (around 430 m2/s2 0-1 km SRH) amid rich boundary-layer
moisture. This will support the maintenance of this intense
supercell toward the northeast for the next 30-60 min.

..Weinman.. 03/25/2023
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Re: 2023 Severe Weather

#58 Postby Bunkertor » Fri Mar 24, 2023 8:38 pm

Adair is in Silver City :eek: :eek: :eek: Lost signal
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Re: 2023 Severe Weather

#59 Postby cycloneye » Fri Mar 24, 2023 8:39 pm

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Re: 2023 Severe Weather

#60 Postby captainbarbossa19 » Fri Mar 24, 2023 8:42 pm



Watching very closely. Praying for the folks in the path!
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