Texas Fall 2023

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Ntxw
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Re: Texas Fall 2023

#501 Postby Ntxw » Mon Sep 25, 2023 2:02 pm

Below in itself doesn't promise cooler air, but it's better than above normal air everywhere in W Canada. At the very least, if true, can knock down some of the ambient heat.

Image

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Re: Texas Fall 2023

#502 Postby weatherdude1108 » Mon Sep 25, 2023 3:29 pm

The damage from the heat and drought has already been done, but maybe finally an OVERALL pattern change?

000
FXUS64 KEWX 251903
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
203 PM CDT Mon Sep 25 2023

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Tuesday night)
Issued at 126 PM CDT Mon Sep 25 2023

Synopsis/Mesoanalysis: A highly variable surface pattern is evident
in regional surface observations early this afternoon. Influenced
heavily by both overnight and early morning convection, last night`s
front was analyzed along an approximate Del Rio - Uvalde - Seguin -
Austin line as of 1:00 PM. The Uvalde - Del Rio segment is
attempting to return northward as a warm front, though its forward
progress has been hindered by morning showers, storms, and cloud
cover over the southern Edwards Plateau. The north-south oriented
portion of the boundary running from Seguin to Austin serves as a
rough demarcation between a modestly cooler/drier air mass over Hill
Country, and a hot/muggy regime further east. This has led to the
establishment of an effective warm sector along & east of Interstate
35, where deeper cumulus agitation has been noted over the last
couple hours. Said cumulus have struggled to mature into convection
through 1:00 PM, which is a likely consequence of residual CIN
apparent in both San Antonio and Austin ACARS soundings. Said
stability is further confirmed in visible satellite imagery, which
depicts pockets of gravity waves/bores over portions of the Coastal
Plains at the current hour. This stable layer should erode given
continued daytime heating, with at least scattered convection
becoming possible along/east of I-35 and over the Coastal Plains by
mid afternoon. Additional showers and storms are possible over the
southern Edwards Plateau and Rio Grande through mid-evening, where
the western portion of the front will continue to attempt to advance
north. A few storms could become strong/severe with large hail and
damaging winds being the primary concerns. Locally heavy rainfall is
also possible. Storms should taper near and after midnight. Remnants
of the front will support additional isolated storm potential on
Tuesday, with areas over the Coastal Plains and Rio Grande being
favored. Severe weather is not currently expected in any of the
Tuesday activity.

This Afternoon & Evening: Scattered showers and storms remain
possible over the southern Edwards Plateau, Rio Grande, and
locations along/east of Interstate 35. Given weaker shear in place
across the area, organized severe weather potential is a touch lower
in today`s storms relative to yesterday. Nevertheless, CAPE values
are expected to climb into the 2000-3000+ J/kg range leading up to
storm development, which will likely support at least some hail
potential in the strongest storms that develop. Efficient mixing
will drive steep lapse rates within the boundary layer, which will
result in scattered damaging wind potential as well. We thus can`t
rule out a few strong to severe storms through this evening across
the area. The Storm Prediction Center continues to carry a marginal
(level 1/5) risk for severe weather over the majority of South-
Central Texas given this potential. Minor flooding is also possible
in any heavy downpours, particularly over the southern Edwards
Plateau, where 2-3 inches of rain have already fallen today. The
Weather Prediction Center thus continues a marginal (level 1/4) risk
of excessive rainfall over the southern Edwards Plateau, San Antonio
metro, and Coastal Plains through this evening. Apart from the
shower/storm potential, a few locations across primarily the Coastal
Plains and Rio Grande could see elevated heat indices in the 105-107
range. Practice proper heat safety if spending prolonged periods of
time outdoors in these locations through the rest of this afternoon.

Tomorrow: Anticipate modestly cooler high temperatures areawide with
a post-frontal regime firmly entrenched. Most locations should top
out in the low-mid 90s. Isolated storms will be possible along
remaining wind shifts during the afternoon hours over primarily the
Coastal Plains and Rio Grande. Severe weather is not currently
anticipated.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 126 PM CDT Mon Sep 25 2023

Any sort of convective activity over locations outside of the Coastal
Plains is unlikely beyond Wednesday afternoon. Weak northwesterly
flow aloft will result in some slight chance PoPs Wednesday
afternoon, which will be primarily driven by daytime heating, but
some weak synoptic support could result in some stronger storms with
gusty winds and small hail.

Thursday through Friday look to be mainly dry, as 500mb ridging
returns, however, not quite as strong. Temperatures will remain above
normal, but more manageable, at least compared to the torture we
endured this Summer. Lower to middle 90s will be common, with some
spots of the Hill Country actually staying below 90 degrees each
afternoon. The Coastal Plains have the best shot at any sort of
precip, with chances for seabreeze showers/isolated thunderstorms
each afternoon Thursday-Friday.

This weekend will perhaps be the start of our next shot at more
widespread precip chances,
but how the overall pattern evolves beyond
Saturday is still in question. Both the GEFS and ECM ensembles
indicate southwest flow aloft as long wave troughing develops over
the western CONUS. This will result in a more active jet stream
pattern for South-Central Texas. Meanwhile, the deterministic GFS has
been fairly consistent the last few days in depicting a cutoff low
developing just outside of this forecast, next Monday-Tuesday. This
low could result in increased chances for heavy rainfall, and the WPC
Week 2 Hazards outlook does indicate a slight risk for heavy
precipitation over the Hill Country October 3rd-6th. At this time,
we will take it with a grain of salt, but know that the overall
pattern might finally be tilting more in our favor as we move into
the month of October
.
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Re: Texas Fall 2023

#503 Postby SoupBone » Mon Sep 25, 2023 3:55 pm

weatherdude1108 wrote:The damage from the heat and drought has already been done, but maybe finally an OVERALL pattern change?



I hate to be the Debbie Downer, but for me, this is the boy who cried wolf scenario. I'll believe it when the first real rain and cool front hit us here in NW Houston. I've seen the hints of a pattern change too many times in the last several weeks to believe it now with the models.
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Re: Texas Fall 2023

#504 Postby Ntxw » Mon Sep 25, 2023 4:13 pm

SoupBone wrote:
weatherdude1108 wrote:The damage from the heat and drought has already been done, but maybe finally an OVERALL pattern change?



I hate to be the Debbie Downer, but for me, this is the boy who cried wolf scenario. I'll believe it when the first real rain and cool front hit us here in NW Houston. I've seen the hints of a pattern change too many times in the last several weeks to believe it now with the models.


The -PDO is defying the El Nino and refuses to flip, if anything it has strengthened. Along with a stubborn warm Atlantic (+AMO and high cyclone activity) are staples of a dry/droughty long-term pattern for Texas. Until one or both of these things flip, dry usually wins out.
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Re: Texas Fall 2023

#505 Postby rwfromkansas » Mon Sep 25, 2023 4:29 pm

Geez, I just looked at the SST anomaly change over the last week, and it does show the -PDO getting stronger. Ugh.

We need help! Something has to make this El Nino take over. There does to be some Atlantic cooling, but not much.
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Re: Texas Fall 2023

#506 Postby bubba hotep » Mon Sep 25, 2023 4:48 pm

Ntxw wrote:
rwfromkansas wrote:
utpmg wrote:Had my old roof replaced in Spring 2021 after a hail storm; then had more roof damage during the terrible ice storm in February this year, now this. Insurance company had already tried to drop me. :double:


I am sorry.

My homeowner's insurance went from $600 in 2015 to $2300, with most of that increase this year. It's insane, but worse if you can't even get it...

And I have no claims for hail, but Texas overall is getting slammed with insurance rates.


Some insurance companies are also limiting coverage for roofs so do check policy. A part of it is inflation (cost to repair goes up) and not just disasters but all of it comes together to hit the pockets.

Hail does nothing for me. Being under one is not the same as watching it hit somewhere else on radar.


Tornadoes get all the press. However, I've only seen one tornado in my lifetime. I don't know anyone who has received damage from a tornado, and I've never had anything damaged by a tornado. I've had cars destroyed by hail. A roof destroyed by hail. Know tons of people who have received damage via hail. Hail is an underreported menace.
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Re: Texas Fall 2023

#507 Postby Ntxw » Mon Sep 25, 2023 5:14 pm

bubba hotep wrote:
Ntxw wrote:
rwfromkansas wrote:
I am sorry.

My homeowner's insurance went from $600 in 2015 to $2300, with most of that increase this year. It's insane, but worse if you can't even get it...

And I have no claims for hail, but Texas overall is getting slammed with insurance rates.


Some insurance companies are also limiting coverage for roofs so do check policy. A part of it is inflation (cost to repair goes up) and not just disasters but all of it comes together to hit the pockets.

Hail does nothing for me. Being under one is not the same as watching it hit somewhere else on radar.


Tornadoes get all the press. However, I've only seen one tornado in my lifetime. I don't know anyone who has received damage from a tornado, and I've never had anything damaged by a tornado. I've had cars destroyed by hail. A roof destroyed by hail. Know tons of people who have received damage via hail. Hail is an underreported menace.


In 2022, hail was the costliest natural disaster for insurance companies in Texas. Year after year outside of Hurricanes, it is often the state's most expensive weather events. Definitely underreported costly weather phenomenon in the state and likely an important factor for insurance.
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Re: Texas Fall 2023

#508 Postby starsfan65 » Mon Sep 25, 2023 6:23 pm

SoupBone wrote:
weatherdude1108 wrote:The damage from the heat and drought has already been done, but maybe finally an OVERALL pattern change?



I hate to be the Debbie Downer, but for me, this is the boy who cried wolf scenario. I'll believe it when the first real rain and cool front hit us here in NW Houston. I've seen the hints of a pattern change too many times in the last several weeks to believe it now with the models.
We haven't got to October yet.
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Re: Texas Fall 2023

#509 Postby Iceresistance » Mon Sep 25, 2023 6:33 pm

starsfan65 wrote:
SoupBone wrote:
weatherdude1108 wrote:The damage from the heat and drought has already been done, but maybe finally an OVERALL pattern change?



I hate to be the Debbie Downer, but for me, this is the boy who cried wolf scenario. I'll believe it when the first real rain and cool front hit us here in NW Houston. I've seen the hints of a pattern change too many times in the last several weeks to believe it now with the models.
We haven't got to October yet.


Speaking of October...
Image
https://s6.gifyu.com/images/S4rIt.png
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Re: Texas Fall 2023

#510 Postby Edwards Limestone » Mon Sep 25, 2023 7:48 pm

Another bust for San Antonio.
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Re: Texas Fall 2023

#511 Postby jasons2k » Mon Sep 25, 2023 9:58 pm

Some big storms in Southeast Texas today after the sun heated things up. Got a shot of some mammatus clouds at sunset. Picked up a quick .20” here.

Image
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Re: Texas Fall 2023

#512 Postby weatherdude1108 » Mon Sep 25, 2023 10:32 pm

rwfromkansas wrote:Geez, I just looked at the SST anomaly change over the last week, and it does show the -PDO getting stronger. Ugh.

We need help! Something has to make this El Nino take over. There does to be some Atlantic cooling, but not much.


We need to get that heat dome over the Pacific, and cold lows over the Atlantic! That'll flip it fast. :wink:lol
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Re: Texas Fall 2023

#513 Postby Brent » Mon Sep 25, 2023 10:57 pm

Well the 18z GFS had 40s here for the first time I think end of next week. Now will it stay consistent :spam: something has to give soon because our average low is already 59 and plunging and we've barely touched the 50s like one or two days
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Re: Texas Fall 2023

#514 Postby tajmahal » Tue Sep 26, 2023 12:55 am

"Compared to the low-prediction-skill era of 1960–2010, the influence of ENSO on the North Pacific is much more significant during 1910–1960, with ENSO’s effects extending significantly to the subpolar region. On the other hand, during 1960–2010, ENSO’s influences become weaker and were only limited to the mid-latitude."

From "Evaluating Changes in the Multiyear Predictability of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation Using Model Analogs since 1900" (2023)
https://www.mdpi.com/2077-1312/11/5/980
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Re: Texas Fall 2023

#515 Postby JDawg512 » Tue Sep 26, 2023 10:48 am

I've watched storms at night since I was a kid and very few ever caused me to actually feel nervous the way that storm did. It missed the rain cave just to the east but was close enough to being powerful winds that knocked a tree down on my house. Gonna be a lot of work to clear it out, not to mention any potential damage to the roof.
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Re: Texas Fall 2023

#516 Postby weatherdude1108 » Tue Sep 26, 2023 11:09 am

JDawg512 wrote:I've watched storms at night since I was a kid and very few ever caused me to actually feel nervous the way that storm did. It missed the rain cave just to the east but was close enough to being powerful winds that knocked a tree down on my house. Gonna be a lot of work to clear it out, not to mention any potential damage to the roof.


Bummer. :( So sorry.
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Re: Texas Fall 2023

#517 Postby weatherdude1108 » Tue Sep 26, 2023 2:15 pm

EWX still holding out hope. Given our endless stretch of bad luck, I'm not going to bank on anything at this point until the PDO behaves and Atlantic cools off a bit, and whatever else can help out a Nino wetness.

CPC has pushed back the risk of heavy precipication time frame a few days from yesterdays update.

I think all of us (except maybe wxman57) are ready to "kiss Summer goodbye."


LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 138 PM CDT Tue Sep 26 2023

Thursday and Friday will feature the return of hotter and drier
conditions for much of South Central Texas, with the exception being
the Coastal Plains, where seabreeze showers and the occasional
rumble of thunder will be possible both afternoons. Temperatures are
expected to remain above normal, some 5-10 degrees warmer than we
usually get for late September. Compared to last September, we are
running warmer, but not by much. However, we actually had some
cooler mornings last September in the 50s and 60s, and that doesn`t
appear to be happening anytime soon.

The weekend looks to be the start of a sort of overall pattern
shift. Hopefully. Long term trends in both deterministic and
ensemble guidance continue to indicate that our 500mb ridging
pattern will FINALLY start to break down as a far more progressive
pattern gets going over the southern CONUS, mostly tied to the
subtropical jet at 200mb.
Saturday and Sunday afternoon, weak
southwest flow aloft and a moist boundary layer should result in
some showers and storms each afternoon, but only in the slight
chance category. Out west over the Great Basin, a 500mb vort max and
deepening trough will result in a stormy pattern over the western
CONUS. This should start to break down our 500mb ridging and bring a
series of disturbances through the region by the middle of next
week. For now, we`ve gone dry for Monday-Tuesday, but as we move
into the month of October, a wetter pattern appears possible and
perhaps at some point, we can kiss Summer goodbye
.


Image
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Re: Texas Fall 2023

#518 Postby wxman57 » Tue Sep 26, 2023 2:20 pm

There were loud noises coming from outside yesterday afternoon. About the same time, a strange liquid began falling from the sky. I measured 1.15" of rain. The street was flooded for a bit, as it all fell in about 15 min.
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Re: Texas Fall 2023

#519 Postby HockeyTx82 » Tue Sep 26, 2023 8:50 pm

wxman57 wrote:There were loud noises coming from outside yesterday afternoon. About the same time, a strange liquid began falling from the sky. I measured 1.15" of rain. The street was flooded for a bit, as it all fell in about 15 min.


Are you getting your plans ready for hibernation yet? :lol:
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Re: Texas Fall 2023

#520 Postby ElectricStorm » Wed Sep 27, 2023 7:59 am

90+ here for at least the next 4 days, maybe more. No signs of this changing until at least October 5th or so. Ridiculous
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