Texas Fall 2023

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mmmmsnouts
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Re: Texas Fall 2023

#581 Postby mmmmsnouts » Fri Sep 29, 2023 8:21 pm

From the FWD discussion:

LONG TERM... /Issued 209 PM CDT Fri Sep 29 2023/
/Saturday night through Friday/

The week will start out with more of the same seasonably hot and tranquil weather, but changes are on the way by midweek as a large upper level trough moves across the Plains and pushes a decently strong cold front through. This will bring the region some widespread rain, mainly Wednesday and into Thursday morning.

Rainfall totals from this event will average 1 to 2 inches,
however the ensemble guidance is exhibiting very high standard deviations, meaning that most people will not see 1 to 2 inches, instead the range for 80% of the area will be more like 0.25" to 3 inches. This is an indication convection will be scattered into slow moving clusters, setting the stage for winners and losers.
Due to low instability and marginal deep layer shear values, the severe weather threat will be more limited...but some low probability threat does exist Wednesday afternoon and evening when instability may be sufficient.


I'll go ahead and slot DFW and eastern Tarrant in the losers column.
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Re: Texas Fall 2023

#582 Postby Brent » Fri Sep 29, 2023 11:49 pm

Now several days with highs in the 60s here showing up behind the midweek front :froze: we've barely had a low below 60 so far
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Re: Texas Fall 2023

#583 Postby Yukon Cornelius » Sat Sep 30, 2023 10:53 am

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Re: Texas Fall 2023

#584 Postby Cpv17 » Sat Sep 30, 2023 11:26 am

Yukon Cornelius wrote:Thoughts?
https://apple.news/AfSWixOy9TViXsYtGlYcHew


It’s forecasted to peak around 2.0. That’s basically between moderate to strong. So nothing too crazy.
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Re: Texas Fall 2023

#585 Postby Ntxw » Sat Sep 30, 2023 1:08 pm

As far as ENSO there are different ways to measure it. The standard is how anomalous the ocean is relative to the normal base state. Right now the 1.7C weekly readings is enough to put this El Nino in the "strong" category. There is roughly 2-3 more months for it to warm we may sneak in a 2C reading for 'Super' but these things require some consistency in terms of months. Safe bet is a top 10 strong event that may end up top 5.

That says nothing about atmospheric response which is what effects our weather. The -PDO mutes a lot of the El Nino tendencies until it can overwhelm it, which eventually it will since ENSO often modulates the PDO. Factor now is that triple La Nina's have imprinted the PDO (mid latitudes) in place it's taking a long time to reverse.

However in winter, the -PDOish/+Nino combo can actually lean in our favor, too much ++PDO floods the continent with mild Pacific air. If Canada can get cold with a neutral to slightly -PNA with bouts of +PNA coupled with a subtropical jet then you end up with years like 1963 and 2009.

Chart is from webberweather.com (Eric Webb's ENSO site that reconstructs further back than ONI.)

Image
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Re: Texas Fall 2023

#586 Postby Iceresistance » Sat Sep 30, 2023 4:30 pm

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Re: Texas Fall 2023

#587 Postby tajmahal » Sat Sep 30, 2023 4:43 pm

For Austin Camp Mabry, global models (deterministic and ensemble) have been trending downwards in total forecast rainfall during October 3–14.
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Re: Texas Fall 2023

#588 Postby Ntxw » Sat Sep 30, 2023 5:39 pm

Anyone notice how early it is for the PVa to set up over Hudson Bay? Talk about setting stage for a hard flip. If we can pull anything like 1991 (El Nino) we'd be talking about October freezes late in the month.
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Re: Texas Fall 2023

#589 Postby Iceresistance » Sat Sep 30, 2023 5:42 pm

Ntxw wrote:Anyone notice how early it is for the PVa to set up over Hudson Bay? Talk about setting stage for a hard flip. If we can pull anything like 1991 (El Nino) we'd be talking about October freezes late in the month.


Also noticed that the Polar Vortex is now set up at the North Pole.
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Re: Texas Fall 2023

#590 Postby Ntxw » Sat Sep 30, 2023 5:45 pm

Iceresistance wrote:
Ntxw wrote:Anyone notice how early it is for the PVa to set up over Hudson Bay? Talk about setting stage for a hard flip. If we can pull anything like 1991 (El Nino) we'd be talking about October freezes late in the month.


Also noticed that the Polar Vortex is now set up at the North Pole.


The Aleutian low is going to attack the pole. The idea that cold air is building early for a source on our side of the world is encouraging, especially given the blocking may follow with further dipping south of the colder air later on in your traditional El Nino fashion.

For some time now, composites of analogs had shown a significant "flip" was going to occur at some point, been waiting to see if we can finally get cold air involved, that's always been a struggle in this day and age.
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Re: Texas Fall 2023

#591 Postby mmmmsnouts » Sat Sep 30, 2023 6:16 pm

As long as it's not like fall 2018 where suddenly we got an entire year's worth of rain in September and October, followed almost immediately by a hard freeze. My backyard did pretty well soaking it all up, but after the freeze I had standing water back there for weeks.
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Re: Texas Fall 2023

#592 Postby tajmahal » Sat Sep 30, 2023 9:37 pm

The stratospheric polar vortex is still centered over the North Pole. GFS has it intensifying in place, as it always does this time of year. The progged mild stretching may, in time, bring cooler temperatures to eastern North America, with a glancing blow for Texas.
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Re: Texas Fall 2023

#593 Postby Ntxw » Sat Sep 30, 2023 10:09 pm

tajmahal wrote:The stratospheric polar vortex is still centered over the North Pole. GFS has it intensifying in place, as it always does this time of year. The progged mild stretching may, in time, bring cooler temperatures to eastern North America, with a glancing blow for Texas.


Any insights on the PVa? Not the stratospheric one.
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Re: Texas Fall 2023

#594 Postby tajmahal » Sat Sep 30, 2023 10:22 pm

A simultaneous negative Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and a strong El Niño (multivariate index >=2.0) has happened only once out of 328 observations from 1941 through 2022. In contrast, a simultaneous positive PDO and strong El Niño has been observed 30 times.
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Re: Texas Fall 2023

#595 Postby Portastorm » Sun Oct 01, 2023 4:30 pm

tajmahal wrote:For Austin Camp Mabry, global models (deterministic and ensemble) have been trending downwards in total forecast rainfall during October 3–14.


And they’ve all trended upwards again. Thankfully.
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Re: Texas Fall 2023

#596 Postby rwfromkansas » Sun Oct 01, 2023 4:39 pm

Well guess what, WPC totals dropping and it’s now higher east of DFW.
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Re: Texas Fall 2023

#597 Postby tajmahal » Sun Oct 01, 2023 5:51 pm

Global weather models are predicting low to moderate rainfall for Austin Camp Mabry for October 3–16. Here are the forecast totals:

3.06 inches...UKMET (model excludes Oct. 7–16)
2.94 inches...ECMWF ensemble average (model excludes Oct. 16)
2.26 inches...ECMWF (model excludes Oct. 11–16)
2.09 inches...GEM (model excludes Oct. 11–16)
2.06 inches...Norwegian version of ECMWF (model excludes Oct. 11–16)
1.63 inches...GEM ensemble average (model excludes Oct. 16)
1.37 inches...ACCESS–G (model excludes Oct. 11–16)
1.19 inches...GFS (model excludes Oct. 11–16)
1.17 inches...GFS ensemble average
1.14 inches...ICON (model excludes Oct. 6–16)
1.01 inches...ICON ensemble average (model excludes Oct. 6–16)
0.98 inches...GFS–MOS (model excludes Oct. 9–16)
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Re: Texas Fall 2023

#598 Postby utpmg » Sun Oct 01, 2023 6:32 pm

Heavy rains here in Austin won't help with the drought that much anyway; what we really need is it farther up the Colorado watershed.
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Re: Texas Fall 2023

#599 Postby weatherdude1108 » Sun Oct 01, 2023 8:33 pm

utpmg wrote:Heavy rains here in Austin won't help with the drought that much anyway; what we really need is it farther up the Colorado watershed.


Yeah, I saw at one point the Hill Country had higher QPFs than east. Need those tributaries that feed the Colorado, San Saba, and Pedernales Rivers to flood.
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Re: Texas Fall 2023

#600 Postby TropicalTundra » Mon Oct 02, 2023 12:25 am

That CMC run could easily break records if it were to verify. 50s for highs and 30s for lows. Good amount of rain too for the metroplex on Thursday.

NAM's nearly in range too so it'll be fun to see what it has to say.
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