LONG TERM... /Issued 209 PM CDT Fri Sep 29 2023/
/Saturday night through Friday/
The week will start out with more of the same seasonably hot and tranquil weather, but changes are on the way by midweek as a large upper level trough moves across the Plains and pushes a decently strong cold front through. This will bring the region some widespread rain, mainly Wednesday and into Thursday morning.
Rainfall totals from this event will average 1 to 2 inches,
however the ensemble guidance is exhibiting very high standard deviations, meaning that most people will not see 1 to 2 inches, instead the range for 80% of the area will be more like 0.25" to 3 inches. This is an indication convection will be scattered into slow moving clusters, setting the stage for winners and losers. Due to low instability and marginal deep layer shear values, the severe weather threat will be more limited...but some low probability threat does exist Wednesday afternoon and evening when instability may be sufficient.
I'll go ahead and slot DFW and eastern Tarrant in the losers column.