Florida Weather

[LarryWx]

Total insanity at Key West: 115 F heat index today shatters old record high for today and ties the alltime record that was set in June!

https://twitter.com/BMcNoldy/status/1790880195609547084

[LarryWx]

 Ft. Lauderdale has had a whopping 11 days in a row of a record high minimum and with another very likely coming today! Along with this, the last 9 days in a row have had a record high mean. This includes yesterday’s 89.5, the highest on record for May (records back to 1913). Also, only one other day has had a warmer mean, the 91.5 of 6/22/2009!

[psyclone]

Finally broke a dry spell dating back to April 11 here. Nice to have some rain cooled air. The heat is definitely on and the extended outlooks are running on the warm side of normal...which is already hot

What's your take on "rainy season"? In spite of a few recent frontal trough induced lines of T'Storms & brief rains here in the Orlando area, I wouldn't raise the checkered flag and anoint that the rainy season has arrived. S. Florida certainly hasn't seen any significant uptick either. I have to admit, a month or two ago I was anticipating that Florida would see the rainy season arrive early. With this early heat though, it does make me wonder whether we'll have a similar summer pattern as last year? No complaints here in my neck of the woods but I recall some of you W. Coast folks weren't all too happy with it.

We got screwed on the west coast last year...I've not seen anything like that before so hopefully that was a fluke. As for this year..my area isn't entitled to summer induced convection until about June 10. Anything earlier is a bonus. Inland areas of central Florida get an earlier start generally. The key is warm sea temps...not just at the shore but well offshore. 83+. We're not there yet but the pot is on the stove. Hopefully we get abundant rainfall this year. I'm hoping early season tropical mischief jump starts the rainy season. That has happened many times in the past and we're due for that again.

[chaser1]

From Don Sutherland, this is amazing:

“Yesterday, Fort Lauderdale had a minimum temperature of 85°. That set a new May record and tied the all-time mark. All three prior cases had occurred in August.

Fort Lauderdale's 85F Low Temperatures:
August 11, 1915
August 2, 1936
August 11, 1941
May 14, 2024

The average minimum temperature in May has warmed dramatically from 70.1° during 1961-1990 to 73.2° during 1991-2020. Excessive ocean warmth has played an important role, with climate change having increased the frequency, magnitude, and duration of marine heatwaves.”

wow, Wow, WOW That IS amazing, and telling. Something's "off" for sure. Growing up in Miami, I seem to recall Spring and Summer breezy days and the easterly trades being such a constant. Never too hot (except for a few days in late July & August) with a transitioning pattern of days with late afternoon thunderstorms coming in from the 'glades, to several breezy days with just a few fast moving showers early morning and evening off the water.

I think more than just "global warming", there's got to be some other dynamic process going on. Meaning, as different levels of our atmosphere heat up, as ocean currents change or weaken, and if potentially greater glacial ice melt occurs..... I've got to think that as overall global weather patterns change other subtle & unanticipated regional weather patterns change as well. If so, such directional wind flow pattern changes alone would be enough to largely impact rainfall and temperature norms. These crazy warm temps are occurring in S.E. Florida, the Keys, and even near record temperatures here in Central Fla. One thing I noticed is that there seems to be a dearth of dry 300-700 mb humidity over much of Florida, the GOM, and westward from across the U.S. lower latitudes and Mexico, and seemingly originating from a deep west to east flow out of the Pacific. At the surface it seems like most of Florida has had a very weak to even south to westerly surface flow, with the flow aloft being largely out of the west and NW.

Maybe its simply a seasonal transition or the waning effects of El Nino? It does make me wonder though whether global scale climate change and/or subtle weather patterns are evolving instead. I guess only time will tell.

[LarryWx]

At 3 PM were these amazingly high HIs:

Miami 112
WPB 114
Key Largo 117

These must be records for at least the day, if not the month!

[chaser1]

At 3 PM were these amazingly high HIs:

Miami 112
WPB 114
Key Largo 117

These must be records for at least the day, if not the month!

Really bad in the Keys too. I think I last saw the Key West Air temp at about 94 with an 80 DP?? That's miserable. My son-in-law is running the Keys 100 mile marathon today/tonight and that must be hell

[psyclone]

Tampa had a 90 with a dewpoint of 80 today which yielded a heat index of 108. A real steambath for sure. The shelf water temps have rocketed higher. Summer is definitely nosing in..

[toad strangler]

Strong straight line gusts from a severe storm this past Saturday evening at my place in Port St. Lucie West.

https://drive.google.com/file/d/1kb4f_clPaWuaQfbj2NJ_zC8FosQwnR8b/view?usp=sharing

[Patrick99]

Lot of severe weather "potential" in my area the last few days, but nothing really happened. Unfortunate, it needs to cool off, and grass needs a good soak.

[LarryWx]

From met. Ben Noll, this is consistent with what I’ve been posting:
“A strong-to-severe marine heatwave has developed in South Florida's coastal waters amid the recent wave of noteworthy heat and humidity...

The extremely warm water will likely form a positive feedback loop, with above average sea temperatures causing above average air temperatures and vice versa - a cycle that looks unlikely to be broken in the weeks ahead

A pattern of persistent and strong high pressure over Mexico is driving the situation. When superimposed with the long-term warming trend, it creates some downright oppressive conditions.

Simply put, such widespread and severe marine heatwaves are a sign of the warming climate. They are only expected to become stronger and last longer in the years and decades ahead. This event is a glimpse at what the future holds.

It's not just Florida that's being affected: a category 5 ‘beyond extreme’ marine heatwave is active near Port-au-Prince, Haiti, where it recently soared to 100˚F, a few degrees shy of the annual record. Santo Domingo, Dominican Republic, reached 101˚F this month, a degree shy of its annual record. The story has been similar for San Juan, Puerto Rico. Nighttime temperatures have been 5-10˚F above average in these areas, offering little or no reprieve from the heat.”

https://x.com/BenNollWeather/status/179 ... gr%5Etweet

[psyclone]

Water temp at key west is 88...and it's already 86 at clearwater beach. The shelf waters are cooking around peninsular florida as endless sun and heat bake those shallow waters. We're usually around 82 or so for water around west central Florida in late May so we're well above average...

[canes92]

The spring time heat in FL is getting hotter and more intense as the years go by. It's been upper 90s every day for like a month now and will stay this way for the foreseeable future. Might could be 100 on MD. It wasn't like this ten years or more ago. Hopefully rainy season will kick into gear soon and moderate the temps a bit. It's hostile to be outside at all during the afternoon period and almost not fit for human survival with air conditioning.

[chaser1]

I hate to think about the potential of even worse and longer duration red-tide conditions. I suppose this is not "a given", with one very key contributing factor being the level of industrial or farmland runoff that makes it to the coastal regions. I have no idea whether any oversight may have been implemented to reduce this practice.

[psyclone]

We haven't had any red tide issues this year. Definitely due for a break. I was out at the beach yesterday...it was heavenly with warm clear water and beautiful conditions..water temp felt mid 80's which is definitely above our standard 82-83 we typically see in late May. The heat is definitely on and it feels great.

[Patrick99]

The level of heat seen the last couple weeks has really been something, just a searing level of it that reminds me more of other hot places like south central Texas more than Florida.

Also, I think rainy season is broken and has been mostly broken for several years now. These aren't the rainy seasons I remember as a kid. It wasn't as hot back then in part because it felt like it was always raining from May to October.

[Patrick99]

How is it this hot, yet we still can't break the cap and initiate convection?

Is it possible that with the marine heatwave, there's just less difference between land and sea, and the seabreeze is warmer and just can't destabilize things as well as it typically did?

[psyclone]

I can't speak for south florida but Tampa's PWAT today was an arid 1.1" That's not going to deliver rain. We're too dry for good convection. Hot and dry is common up here in May. I'd say May is our best beach climo month..

[chaser1]

I took a quick look at late starting "rainy seasons" and any correlation to Florida tropical cyclone impact for those years, but only seemed to draw an indirect connection at best.

Based on Orlando Florida temperature, humidity, dew point and rainfall data analysis (per Randy Lascody, NWS office - Melbourne), May 27 was the "mean" average date for the beginning of our Central Florida rainy season. The vast majority of the 74 years reviewed beginning in 1950 had Rainy Season start dates ranging from early to late May. Meanwhile only 12 years had Rainy seasons that began on May 6 or later
In fact, May 11 was the beginning of the Rainy season for just (4) of those years - 1955, 1984, 2000, 2006. The only two later starting Rainy seasons occurred on June 14 in 2011 and July 6 on 1998

When reviewing the 12 years of latest-starting Rainy season dates as referenced above, one or more tropical cyclones did strike Florida in 8 of those 12 years
Looking at the long range GFS, I don't see the Rainy season beginning here in East Central Florida until perhaps June 10 or later.