Texas Spring 2024

[rwfromkansas]

00z HRRR fires some nasty cells across DFW tomorrow evening.

Interesting. I honestly ignored tomorrow completely since the risk zone is so narrow and DFW is almost not even in it.

[snownado]

00z HRRR fires some nasty cells across DFW tomorrow evening.

HRRR is pretty much on its own there.

All of the other models are either a fat goose egg for everyone, or delay intiation until just SE of DFW (I.E. repeat of 5/8/24).

So I mean, as interesting as the HRRR may be, I see no reason to bet against the seasonal trend.

[Cpv17]

00z HRRR fires some nasty cells across DFW tomorrow evening.

HRRR is pretty much on its own there.

All of the other models are either a fat goose egg for everyone, or delay intiation until just SE of DFW (I.E. repeat of 5/8/24).

So I mean, as interesting as the HRRR may be, I see no reason to bet against the seasonal trend.

The other models usually don’t pick up on things like the HRRR does though.

[snownado]

00z HRRR fires some nasty cells across DFW tomorrow evening.

HRRR is pretty much on its own there.

All of the other models are either a fat goose egg for everyone, or delay intiation until just SE of DFW (I.E. repeat of 5/8/24).

So I mean, as interesting as the HRRR may be, I see no reason to bet against the seasonal trend.

The other models usually don’t pick up on things like the HRRR does though.

Just to clarify, I was including the other CAMs (NBM, ARW, 3km NAM, etc.) as well when I said "all of the other models."

[ElectricStorm]

Well the 0z CAMs are out and pretty much every single one of them fire zero storms in OK Saturday, which was not what I was expecting. Seems like a few of them like the NAM have a strong capping inversion while others like the HRRR don't have much of a cap at all yet still fail to convect. I initially thought it would be typical 48hr HRRR dryline shenanigans (heck even today it was all over the place) but when all of them show nothing it makes me wonder...

Interested to read the upcoming SPC discussion in about an hour. I'm not sure I buy the CAMs at this range since they can still be unreliable 48 hours out but it'll be something to watch as we get closer. Still looks to be a very potent environment though so any storm that does form will probably have strong tornado potential.

Also a chance this could be another post 0z event so that could have something to do with it since most CAMs only go out 48 hours.

[Cpv17]

HRRR is pretty much on its own there.

All of the other models are either a fat goose egg for everyone, or delay intiation until just SE of DFW (I.E. repeat of 5/8/24).

So I mean, as interesting as the HRRR may be, I see no reason to bet against the seasonal trend.

The other models usually don’t pick up on things like the HRRR does though.

Just to clarify, I was including the other CAMs (NBM, ARW, 3km NAM, etc.) as well when I said "all of the other models."

I know. The NBM I’m not familiar with. The NAM sucks in my opinion for precipitation. I only use the NAM for temps during the winter. The ARW is half decent. FV3 overdoes precip too often. RGEM sometimes can be okay, but the HRRR overall does the best IMO so it holds the most weight for me. I’m just not familiar with the NBM.

[ElectricStorm]

 https://x.com/NWSSPC/status/1793884151202111491




Smaller enhanced risk now for Day 2 (Sat) with a small 10# tornado area from W OK to south-central KS, so maybe the CAMs and CIPs analogs are on to something

[HockeyTx82]

SPC just went enhanced for DFW for today......

[bubba hotep]

SPC just went enhanced for DFW for today......

[bubba hotep]

The 12z SPC HREF is pretty aggressive along the entire ENH zoned.

[Ntxw]

73 dewpoint at DFW, it's quite juicy. Upper 70s dews in SE Texas yuck! Probably a couple of big ones.

[HockeyTx82]

The 12z SPC HREF is pretty aggressive along the entire ENH zoned.

Why I feel this will catch people off guard today?

This one just seems like a sleeper with potential to really fire off.

It's the hail and wind threat I'm worried about, not so much a tornado.

[snownado]

With the excessive rainfall we've seen, the elevated dewpoints should be no surprise.

The bigger concern should be thus far, the wet soils have not worked to keep temps in check (nothing extreme yet due in part to all of the cloud cover, but it's been consistently above-normal with fairly efficient heating when there are breaks in the clouds), despite what some have been hoping for...

[bubba hotep]

The 12z SPC HREF is pretty aggressive along the entire ENH zoned.

Why I feel this will catch people off guard today?

This one just seems like a sleeper with potential to really fire off.

It's the hail and wind threat I'm worried about, not so much a tornado.

The hail threat looks to be high-end if storms can get going.

[snownado]

The 12z SPC HREF is pretty aggressive along the entire ENH zoned.

Why I feel this will catch people off guard today?

This one just seems like a sleeper with potential to really fire off.

It's the hail and wind threat I'm worried about, not so much a tornado.

The hail threat looks to be high-end if storms can get going.

The story of 2024 for DFW (with emphasis on the bolded).

[Ntxw]

With the excessive rainfall we've seen, the elevated dewpoints should be no surprise.

The bigger concern should be thus far, the wet soils have not worked to keep temps in check (nothing extreme yet due in part to all of the cloud cover, but it's been consistently above-normal with fairly efficient heating when there are breaks in the clouds), despite what some have been hoping for...

I think most of us have accepted at this point being below normal for a monthly has become a rarity, seldom more than one or two months. We are approaching mid decade (2025) and already the averages in the next cycle will be higher than the 2010s which we are consistently above. This is the numbers.

We just want to avoid the long duration heatwaves at this point.

[Cpv17]

Looks like the window of opportunity for DFW today will be from about 4pm-12am. Pretty wide window.

[ElectricStorm]

Big moderate added for tomorrow and they're already mentioning High risk if confidence in storm coverage increases

[snownado]

With the excessive rainfall we've seen, the elevated dewpoints should be no surprise.

The bigger concern should be thus far, the wet soils have not worked to keep temps in check (nothing extreme yet due in part to all of the cloud cover, but it's been consistently above-normal with fairly efficient heating when there are breaks in the clouds), despite what some have been hoping for...

I think most of us have accepted at this point being below normal for a monthly has become a rarity, seldom more than one or two months. We are approaching mid decade (2025) and already the averages in the next cycle will be higher than the 2010s which we are consistently above. This is the numbers.

We just want to avoid the long duration heatwaves at this point.

Even if the wet soils do help to keep actual temps in check this year, there may still be the heightened risk of wet bulb events with more extreme heat indices instead.

Last year (which wasn't exactly a wet Winter/Spring), DFW in June had what seemed like numerous days with heat indices above 110*F and dewpoints in the 75*F-80*F range.

[HockeyTx82]

Why I feel this will catch people off guard today?

This one just seems like a sleeper with potential to really fire off.

It's the hail and wind threat I'm worried about, not so much a tornado.

The hail threat looks to be high-end if storms can get going.

The story of 2024 for DFW (with emphasis on the bolded).

And unless my eyes are deceiving me the HRRR is trending less and less for DFW. Maybe the clouds are hanging around keeping temps in check?

Anyone else want to check me on that?