Texas Summer 2024

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cycloneye
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Re: Texas Summer 2024

#161 Postby cycloneye » Mon Jun 17, 2024 9:03 am

For those who may want to follow the information about new invest 91L at Bay of Campeche, go to the 91L main discussion thread.
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Re: Texas Summer 2024

#162 Postby snownado » Mon Jun 17, 2024 9:28 am

Cpv17 wrote:
Brent wrote:Wow this place is dead :lol: with a very large circulation in the Gulf

Even up here we might be a little less hot


It’s because most people on here are from DFW and they aren’t expected to get much outta it.


That, and I've had my severe weather fix for the season between 5/27 and 6/3.

I'm just loving the Summertime weather now.
Last edited by snownado on Mon Jun 17, 2024 1:23 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Texas Summer 2024

#163 Postby Wthrfan » Mon Jun 17, 2024 10:39 am

Hoping my friends and family in the Austin-San Antonio area and the watersheds to the west and northwest pick up some much needed moisture!
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Re: Texas Summer 2024

#164 Postby bubba hotep » Mon Jun 17, 2024 11:42 am

Wthrfan wrote:Hoping my friends and family in the Austin-San Antonio area and the watersheds to the west and northwest pick up some much needed moisture!


Models are in pretty good agreement that there will be widespread rains for South Texas :rain: :rain:
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Winter time post are almost exclusively focused on the DFW area.

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Re: Texas Summer 2024

#165 Postby txtwister78 » Mon Jun 17, 2024 3:37 pm

Might have to watch the SW Gulf/Bay of Campeche again for another possible disturbance early next week as the Euro Ensemble probs are beginning to ramp up with a decent signal for a tropical depression around the 24th.
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Re: Texas Summer 2024

#166 Postby txtwister78 » Mon Jun 17, 2024 3:39 pm

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Re: Texas Summer 2024

#167 Postby weatherdude1108 » Mon Jun 17, 2024 4:19 pm

The EWX office had some interesting wording. :eek: :rain: :rain: :rain:

With regard to the overall setup, the Subtropical High is situated
over North Carolina and will strengthen and expand in size over the
Ohio Valley by midweek. This will act to block 91L from moving into
the central Gulf, and allowing it to move into northern Mexico or
south Texas under southeasterly flow aloft. It looks as if PWATs
will be near or close to top 10 all time values within the
climatology based off of Corpus Christi`s sounding history. The max
is 3.00" from July 2010, and based off of the ensembles from the GFS
and ECM, that value could be challenged Tuesday evening through
Thursday morning, with values in the 2.7-3.0" range, some 3-4 sigma
above the mean. Those are some remarkable values given the
climatology, so we are working with a DEEP tropical airmass moving
into South Central Texas midweek. Showers and storms that develop
within this airmass will be incredibly efficient rain makers, with
rates likely approaching several inches per hour.



https://forecast.weather.gov/product.ph ... glossary=1
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Re: Texas Summer 2024

#168 Postby utpmg » Mon Jun 17, 2024 4:33 pm

bubba hotep wrote:
Wthrfan wrote:Hoping my friends and family in the Austin-San Antonio area and the watersheds to the west and northwest pick up some much needed moisture!


Models are in pretty good agreement that there will be widespread rains for South Texas :rain: :rain:

I'm sure they need it as well, but man...anything south of Blanco doesn't really help us here. Even rain in Austin proper won't really help the overriding issue. Lake Travis and Buchanan are still way down.
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Re: Texas Summer 2024

#169 Postby Edwards Limestone » Mon Jun 17, 2024 5:18 pm

utpmg wrote:
bubba hotep wrote:
Wthrfan wrote:Hoping my friends and family in the Austin-San Antonio area and the watersheds to the west and northwest pick up some much needed moisture!


Models are in pretty good agreement that there will be widespread rains for South Texas :rain: :rain:

I'm sure they need it as well, but man...anything south of Blanco doesn't really help us here. Even rain in Austin proper won't really help the overriding issue. Lake Travis and Buchanan are still way down.


Respectfully disagree. Canyon Lake and the upper Guadalupe River Basin have been much worse off than Travis as of late. We are in a 3-4 year drought right now.

We all need rain but Travis and Buchanan have gotten a lot more help the last few months than those of us to your south. Let's hope we all get something beneficial.

It may not matter anyway, there's likely going to be a sharp precip cutoff somewhere in SC TX- and that line may well be south of SA. Lucy is getting ready with her football again...
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Re: Texas Summer 2024

#170 Postby txtwister78 » Mon Jun 17, 2024 5:21 pm

NHC briefing for those interested. Per the discussion impacts in terms of rainfall and potentially even tropical storm gust will be felt several hundred miles north of the actual center. Models still have some time to shift a little, but odds still favor South Central Texas points south in terms of the heaviest rainfall inland from this event

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uQTTRaWyz6I
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Re: Texas Summer 2024

#171 Postby South Texas Storms » Mon Jun 17, 2024 6:24 pm

Edwards Limestone wrote:
utpmg wrote:
bubba hotep wrote:
Models are in pretty good agreement that there will be widespread rains for South Texas :rain: :rain:

I'm sure they need it as well, but man...anything south of Blanco doesn't really help us here. Even rain in Austin proper won't really help the overriding issue. Lake Travis and Buchanan are still way down.


Respectfully disagree. Canyon Lake and the upper Guadalupe River Basin have been much worse off than Travis as of late. We are in a 3-4 year drought right now.

We all need rain but Travis and Buchanan have gotten a lot more help the last few months than those of us to your south. Let's hope we all get something beneficial.

It may not matter anyway, there's likely going to be a sharp precip cutoff somewhere in SC TX- and that line may well be south of SA. Lucy is getting ready with her football again...


Yeah I'm beginning to think the cutoff line for the significant rainfall with this system will be near San Antonio unfortunately. Wouldn't be surprised to see the areas that still need rain badly to miss out yet again. Hopefully it comes in farther north but that is looking less likely with time...
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Re: Texas Summer 2024

#172 Postby Cpv17 » Mon Jun 17, 2024 6:32 pm

txtwister78 wrote:Might have to watch the SW Gulf/Bay of Campeche again for another possible disturbance early next week as the Euro Ensemble probs are beginning to ramp up with a decent signal for a tropical depression around the 24th.


And the CPC forecast today agrees with that.
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Re: Texas Summer 2024

#173 Postby Edwards Limestone » Mon Jun 17, 2024 7:00 pm

South Texas Storms wrote:
Edwards Limestone wrote:
utpmg wrote:I'm sure they need it as well, but man...anything south of Blanco doesn't really help us here. Even rain in Austin proper won't really help the overriding issue. Lake Travis and Buchanan are still way down.


Respectfully disagree. Canyon Lake and the upper Guadalupe River Basin have been much worse off than Travis as of late. We are in a 3-4 year drought right now.

We all need rain but Travis and Buchanan have gotten a lot more help the last few months than those of us to your south. Let's hope we all get something beneficial.

It may not matter anyway, there's likely going to be a sharp precip cutoff somewhere in SC TX- and that line may well be south of SA. Lucy is getting ready with her football again...


Yeah I'm beginning to think the cutoff line for the significant rainfall with this system will be near San Antonio unfortunately. Wouldn't be surprised to see the areas that still need rain badly to miss out yet again. Hopefully it comes in farther north but that is looking less likely with time...


Bummer again. At least we’ll get some cooler temps and clouds- hopefully. Maybe next week’s system will bring better luck for the Hill Country.
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Re: Texas Summer 2024

#174 Postby txtwister78 » Mon Jun 17, 2024 7:25 pm

South Texas Storms wrote:
Edwards Limestone wrote:
utpmg wrote:I'm sure they need it as well, but man...anything south of Blanco doesn't really help us here. Even rain in Austin proper won't really help the overriding issue. Lake Travis and Buchanan are still way down.


Respectfully disagree. Canyon Lake and the upper Guadalupe River Basin have been much worse off than Travis as of late. We are in a 3-4 year drought right now.

We all need rain but Travis and Buchanan have gotten a lot more help the last few months than those of us to your south. Let's hope we all get something beneficial.

It may not matter anyway, there's likely going to be a sharp precip cutoff somewhere in SC TX- and that line may well be south of SA. Lucy is getting ready with her football again...


Yeah I'm beginning to think the cutoff line for the significant rainfall with this system will be near San Antonio unfortunately. Wouldn't be surprised to see the areas that still need rain badly to miss out yet again. Hopefully it comes in farther north but that is looking less likely with time...


I think the thing to watch is whether we see a secondary vort max develop further north which has been shown per the GFS/CMC model solutions over the past several runs. This would enhance convection further north of the actual center. That's the key in my opinion as it relates to how far north impacts will be felt. The Euro hasn't been as bullish with that scenario taking place and thus keeping the bulk of the heavier rain further south across the RGV.

If this thing spins up faster where NHC has it positioned than most models currently show, then I think we may see the Euro solution win out but the longer this remains as a broad area of circulation, I can see a GFS/CMC solution having some merit. Still some things to sort out, but I'll take anything we can get at this point. it's all a bonus once you get into mid-June and beyond.
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Re: Texas Summer 2024

#175 Postby Cpv17 » Mon Jun 17, 2024 7:54 pm

Edwards Limestone wrote:
South Texas Storms wrote:
Edwards Limestone wrote:
Respectfully disagree. Canyon Lake and the upper Guadalupe River Basin have been much worse off than Travis as of late. We are in a 3-4 year drought right now.

We all need rain but Travis and Buchanan have gotten a lot more help the last few months than those of us to your south. Let's hope we all get something beneficial.

It may not matter anyway, there's likely going to be a sharp precip cutoff somewhere in SC TX- and that line may well be south of SA. Lucy is getting ready with her football again...


Yeah I'm beginning to think the cutoff line for the significant rainfall with this system will be near San Antonio unfortunately. Wouldn't be surprised to see the areas that still need rain badly to miss out yet again. Hopefully it comes in farther north but that is looking less likely with time...


Bummer again. At least we’ll get some cooler temps and clouds- hopefully. Maybe next week’s system will bring better luck for the Hill Country.


The NHC is already mentioning the next one. Interesting times ahead.
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Re: Texas Summer 2024

#176 Postby South Texas Storms » Mon Jun 17, 2024 8:12 pm

txtwister78 wrote:
South Texas Storms wrote:
Edwards Limestone wrote:
Respectfully disagree. Canyon Lake and the upper Guadalupe River Basin have been much worse off than Travis as of late. We are in a 3-4 year drought right now.

We all need rain but Travis and Buchanan have gotten a lot more help the last few months than those of us to your south. Let's hope we all get something beneficial.

It may not matter anyway, there's likely going to be a sharp precip cutoff somewhere in SC TX- and that line may well be south of SA. Lucy is getting ready with her football again...


Yeah I'm beginning to think the cutoff line for the significant rainfall with this system will be near San Antonio unfortunately. Wouldn't be surprised to see the areas that still need rain badly to miss out yet again. Hopefully it comes in farther north but that is looking less likely with time...


I think the thing to watch is whether we see a secondary vort max develop further north which has been shown per the GFS/CMC model solutions over the past several runs. This would enhance convection further north of the actual center. That's the key in my opinion as it relates to how far north impacts will be felt. The Euro hasn't been as bullish with that scenario taking place and thus keeping the bulk of the heavier rain further south across the RGV.

If this thing spins up faster where NHC has it positioned than most models currently show, then I think we may see the Euro solution win out but the longer this remains as a broad area of circulation, I can see a GFS/CMC solution having some merit. Still some things to sort out, but I'll take anything we can get at this point. it's all a bonus once you get into mid-June and beyond.


The Euro has been very consistent in showing 1-2 inch amounts in SA, and now the GFS is shifting south and will probably soon be in that range as well. Unfortunate that the hardest hit drought area keeps getting teased by the models with regards to these drought busting rain events. I hope I'm wrong and heavier amounts fall in SA and the Hill Country, but the trend hasn't been good today.

Don't get me wrong 1-2 inches will be very beneficial to the area, but it's frustrating when there's a chance for 4-8 inch totals which would really put a dent in the drought.
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Re: Texas Summer 2024

#177 Postby Cpv17 » Mon Jun 17, 2024 8:27 pm

South Texas Storms wrote:
txtwister78 wrote:
South Texas Storms wrote:
Yeah I'm beginning to think the cutoff line for the significant rainfall with this system will be near San Antonio unfortunately. Wouldn't be surprised to see the areas that still need rain badly to miss out yet again. Hopefully it comes in farther north but that is looking less likely with time...


I think the thing to watch is whether we see a secondary vort max develop further north which has been shown per the GFS/CMC model solutions over the past several runs. This would enhance convection further north of the actual center. That's the key in my opinion as it relates to how far north impacts will be felt. The Euro hasn't been as bullish with that scenario taking place and thus keeping the bulk of the heavier rain further south across the RGV.

If this thing spins up faster where NHC has it positioned than most models currently show, then I think we may see the Euro solution win out but the longer this remains as a broad area of circulation, I can see a GFS/CMC solution having some merit. Still some things to sort out, but I'll take anything we can get at this point. it's all a bonus once you get into mid-June and beyond.


The Euro has been very consistent in showing 1-2 inch amounts in SA, and now the GFS is shifting south and will probably soon be in that range as well. Unfortunate that the hardest hit drought area keeps getting teased by the models with regards to these drought busting rain events. I hope I'm wrong and heavier amounts fall in SA and the Hill Country, but the trend hasn't been good today.

Don't get me wrong 1-2 inches will be very beneficial to the area, but it's frustrating when there's a chance for 4-8 inch totals which would really put a dent in the drought.


As long as we have that ECR, I’m not too concerned about it. You mentioned a couple weeks ago about tropical moisture moving in over the second part of June. You were spot on.
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Re: Texas Summer 2024

#178 Postby Brent » Mon Jun 17, 2024 9:59 pm

Cpv17 wrote:
South Texas Storms wrote:
txtwister78 wrote:
I think the thing to watch is whether we see a secondary vort max develop further north which has been shown per the GFS/CMC model solutions over the past several runs. This would enhance convection further north of the actual center. That's the key in my opinion as it relates to how far north impacts will be felt. The Euro hasn't been as bullish with that scenario taking place and thus keeping the bulk of the heavier rain further south across the RGV.

If this thing spins up faster where NHC has it positioned than most models currently show, then I think we may see the Euro solution win out but the longer this remains as a broad area of circulation, I can see a GFS/CMC solution having some merit. Still some things to sort out, but I'll take anything we can get at this point. it's all a bonus once you get into mid-June and beyond.


The Euro has been very consistent in showing 1-2 inch amounts in SA, and now the GFS is shifting south and will probably soon be in that range as well. Unfortunate that the hardest hit drought area keeps getting teased by the models with regards to these drought busting rain events. I hope I'm wrong and heavier amounts fall in SA and the Hill Country, but the trend hasn't been good today.

Don't get me wrong 1-2 inches will be very beneficial to the area, but it's frustrating when there's a chance for 4-8 inch totals which would really put a dent in the drought.


As long as we have that ECR, I’m not too concerned about it. You mentioned a couple weeks ago about tropical moisture moving in over the second part of June. You were spot on.


Not to mention there is already hints of another storm in the same area it appears we have a western Pacific type gyre where it just hangs out for awhile
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Re: Texas Summer 2024

#179 Postby txtwister78 » Mon Jun 17, 2024 10:11 pm

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Re: Texas Summer 2024

#180 Postby Cpv17 » Mon Jun 17, 2024 11:10 pm

Terrible trends on the models today. Hopefully the next possible system will come in further N.
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