Florida Weather

[NDG]

Orlando ended Meteorological Fall 2.3 deg F above average, after a very wet October due to tropical wx it was followed by a fairly dry November, much drier than November of last year.
Much cooler end to the month and start to December but nothing out of the ordinary. Pattern looks to get warmer as we get close to the middle of the month.

[NDG]

Upper 30s made it to my part of Orlando's NW suburbs this morning but thankfully the winds stayed up enough that there was no frost at all. We survived this time around.
If you believe in the LRC this will mean that this cold wx pattern will return some time in around mid or late January, we may not be so lucky then.
In the meantime I am looking forward to the 70s-80s more often than not over the next few weeks.

[Patrick99]

I hope everyone enjoyed that little cool snap, because it looks pretty quiet around here for weeks upcoming.

[Abdullah]

We can see the next event

Let's check back December 20

[gatorcane]

Models bullish on some really cold air around Dec 22-24 with a possible freeze down into the peninsula.

[NDG]

Ensembles showing NAO to go positive over the next couple of weeks.

[gatorcane]

Amazing how different the temps can be between the east and west coast of Florida when the cold air advection is from the NE direction. That Gulf Stream along with abundant cloud cover sure does modify the air. Also note the wind direction and speeds difference:




Source: https://www.usairnet.com/weather/maps/c ... mperature/

[psyclone]

Friday morning was another chilly one here but that's the last one for a bit as we have several warm days on tap. 6-10 and 8-14 day outlooks are below normal and that includes Christmas so more firepit weather on tap. Really nice cold season so far

[NDG]

GFS has backed away from its really frigid forecast for next weekend. I was doubting it all along, I pointed out to the ensembles showing the NAO going back to positive. Next weekend’s chill will be a quick one with the core of it staying to the north of the Peninsula as they usually do during a +NAO, average to above average should be followed for Christmas.

[gatorcane]

Long-range Euro with snow over the NE Gulf

[gatorcane]

Today’s 12Z GFS might be the coldest run I have ever seen by the model for Florida, thankfully way out in fantasyland like the Euro:

[NDG]

12z GFS is hilarious, central & southern FL has never gotten that cold in at least the past 100 years. Not even during the 19080s Arctic blasts.
Yes, the NAO is going negative so most like we will be back to cold wx pattern here in the peninsula but what I doubt we’ll see such extreme low temps is that the AO is forecasted to stay positive.

[FireRat]

Today’s 12Z GFS might be the coldest run I have ever seen by the model for Florida, thankfully way out in fantasyland like the Euro:

https://i.postimg.cc/FsrJM1j1/gfs-T2m-seus-61.png

Holy Mother of Cold Miser that is absolutely insane!! Can you all imagine if that run actually verifies?
That would leave 2010 in the dust.

[gatorcane]

I was also wondering if it is even possible to get that cold in Florida. Clearly that GFS run makes little sense. 20F in Miami!?!

[FireRat]

I was also wondering if it is even possible to get that cold in Florida. Clearly that GFS run makes little sense. 20F in Miami!?!

Yeah it would be practically impossible, especially these days!
I remember once reading about a record low of 21 in Fort Lauderdale from Feb 1996 in a weather history calendar from 1998 that I had... but this seems too low haha. I'd say 25 is the lowest possible maybe, like what the inland areas saw in 2010

[gatorcane]

Last two runs of the GFS are showing wintry precip for Florida.

Of course it's the super long-range and probably will be poof in the next runs. Nonetheless both the GFS and Euro are showing a deep freeze into Florida still around Jan 8-12

00Z GFS Tampa to Fort Myers:


06Z GFS Panhandle to Orlando:

[psyclone]

We definitely have a long period of below normal temps coming at the coldest time of the year. I'd be shocked if we didn't have some meaningful freeze potential evolve at some point. We're way overdue for a good scare at a minimum. Same with a good cold season svr risk. Seems like we're overdue for that too

[FireRat]

Last two runs of the GFS are showing wintry precip for Florida.

Of course it's the super long-range and probably will be poof in the next runs. Nonetheless both the GFS and Euro are showing a deep freeze into Florida still around Jan 8-12

00Z GFS Tampa to Fort Myers:
https://i.postimg.cc/wj5bLcJ2/gfs-mslp-pcpn-frzn-seus-fh300-354.gif

06Z GFS Panhandle to Orlando:
https://i.postimg.cc/KYZBVtW0/gfs-mslp-pcpn-frzn-seus-fh300-348.gif

That really would be one heck of a way to begin 2025
1977 style

[gatorcane]

Wintry precip continues to show up on the GFS for Florida.

The long-range globals continue to show an arctic airmass pushing into Florida around Jan 11-13 with the GFS and Euro models advertising 20s across Central Florida and the freeze line down into Naples to Miami area.

[FireRat]

Wow! Y'all gonna likely see some crazy cold down there if those trends keep up! Reminds me of 2010