Texas Fall 2025

[snownado]

Got a beautiful-looking week on tap.

[snownado]

BTW, 2025 will end up being the 4th warmest October record for DFW (2024 was the warmest). The last week or so really knocked down the average.

[Brent]

Officially the first freeze of the season here. Pretty close to average after yeah a hot October

Also suddenly the GFS has a huge front next weekend(we go from 70s to 40s for highs with some snow around Kansas City) although the brunt of the cold air is still east of us

[Ntxw]

Climo will win! Warmth (for November) mid to late week before another cold shot to knock it back down next weekend.

Evidence still favors the possible pattern that may deliver a winter-ish pattern late month into December as the EPO and Pacific domain shifts. Plenty of time to watch what kind of air mass builds up there in the coming weeks.

[wxman22]

Climo will win! Warmth (for November) mid to late week before another cold shot to knock it back down next weekend.

Evidence still favors the possible pattern that may deliver a winter-ish pattern late month into December as the EPO and Pacific domain shifts. Plenty of time to watch what kind of air mass builds up there in the coming weeks.

If the 1030+mb surface high moves down the plains into the state like the models are showing. I can see a lot of areas having their first freeze if such a scenario occurs. Especially if things slow down a bit and become less progressive.

While the official recording station for the city didn't hit freezing the other day ( got down to 35F). The western areas of Wichita county did get to freezing though. So i don't think they will issue another freeze warning here.As they are usually only issued for the first freeze of the season (excluding hard freeze warnings).

[Stratton23]

To follow up to NTXW’s post, it seems or id argue that we may try to flip to a cooler/ cold pattern maybe just before thanksgiving, looking at ensemble trends the past 2 days and while we got a ways to go, the ensembles clearly are trending towards a - EPO pattern with a trough setting up over the western- central US around the 17th

[Ntxw]

Air mass next weekend looks like a lobe that originates from the Arctic, moderated of course glancing shot. Areas outside the big population centers that haven't seen a freeze will probably come close.

[Brent]

Well the usually weenie people up here have woken up about some pattern toward Thanksgiving apparently yeah it's 3 weeks out whatever. Another one who is usually pretty good said probably at least a stormy pattern would show up before that

The big question right now is how cold is the front this weekend the NWS isn't cold at all but some of the GFS runs especially are

The NWS does mention it could be a lot colder than their forecast already

[Stratton23]

Extended ensembles suggests not only does the EPO go negative a couple of days before thanksgiving , but also the WPO is trending neutral to negative as well on gfs extended and euro weeklies, that’s significant when the WPO starts going down towards negative, I think the next 2 weeks or so will feature up and down swings temperature wise, but pieces of the puzzle are starting to come together for potentially a much colder pattern beginning sometime around or just after thanksgiving, CFS shows a much colder outlook for thanksgiving

[Ntxw]

Extended ensembles suggests not only does the EPO go negative a couple of days before thanksgiving , but also the WPO is trending neutral to negative as well on gfs extended and euro weeklies, that’s significant when the WPO starts going down towards negative, I think the next 2 weeks or so will feature up and down swings temperature wise, but pieces of the puzzle are starting to come together for potentially a much colder pattern beginning sometime around or just after thanksgiving, CFS shows a much colder outlook for thanksgiving

I have to concur. I've been watching the Pacific and it's been screaming change near month's end and classic -EPO *potentially* gates opening into December. Sometimes it's just long range noise but there is other supportive evidence. We'll see more long range runs showing some fun stuff probably. We're supposed to see a big Aleutian ridge in a Nina for sustained warm pattern but trough instead is going to attack the SPV.

[Stratton23]

Big big changes on the ensembles in the 10-15 day period, see a big - EPO/AO/ NAO and - WPO blocking pattern, at least on the GEFS/ GEPS runs

[Lagreeneyes03]

Extended ensembles suggests not only does the EPO go negative a couple of days before thanksgiving , but also the WPO is trending neutral to negative as well on gfs extended and euro weeklies, that’s significant when the WPO starts going down towards negative, I think the next 2 weeks or so will feature up and down swings temperature wise, but pieces of the puzzle are starting to come together for potentially a much colder pattern beginning sometime around or just after thanksgiving, CFS shows a much colder outlook for thanksgiving

I have to concur. I've been watching the Pacific and it's been screaming change near month's end and classic -EPO *potentially* gates opening into December. Sometimes it's just long range noise but there is other supportive evidence. We'll see more long range runs showing some fun stuff probably. We're supposed to see a big Aleutian ridge in a Nina for sustained warm pattern but trough instead is going to attack the SPV.

I'd heard about 2013-2014 winter possibly being an analog year, especially given the lack of tropical activity in the CONUS. Hmm. and Cobblestone Ice WAS in December, mind you.

[Ntxw]

I'd heard about 2013-2014 winter possibly being an analog year, especially given the lack of tropical activity in the CONUS. Hmm. and Cobblestone Ice WAS in December, mind you.

The strat PV is forecasted to be very weak by month's end. It's going to start out like an old fashioned cold enso/Nina front loaded season. 2013/2022 perhaps, both having significant December cold.

[Ntxw]

The front over the weekend into early week is going to be a good early test for modeled temperatures, not that I'm expecting much different from prior seasons regarding air mass forecasting.

GFS/ICON/CMC all have much of North Texas into the 30s (urban heat island typical shenanigans) with the GFS being coldest. Euro is warmest up and down the region (mid 40s). You can extend those values in central and SE Texas as well with the varying models.

Euro AI is closer to the GFS/ICON/CMC conglomerate average.

Given sufficient northerly flow, 1039-1040HP system, I'm going to bet the Euro will lose this one.

[wxman22]

The ICON Shows a hard freeze here, Sunday night. With a low of 26.

[rwfromkansas]

This was helpful for me in terms of understanding all these different patterns: https://frontierweather.dtn.com/WinterC ... rivers.pdf

[Wthrfan]

This was helpful for me in terms of understanding all these different patterns: https://frontierweather.dtn.com/WinterC ... rivers.pdf

Thanks for this! No I need a cheat sheet for the weather models to see which ones tend to be more accurate!

[Brent]

Seeing wind chills down into the teens Sunday night

Still hearing talk about the end of the month too

Interestingly the year we had the biggest snowstorm at the end of November it didn't snow again the rest of the winter I don't know how I feel about that...

[wxman22]

First Hard Freeze of the season possible here this weekend.

[Brent]

Man if this weekend wasn't mostly east of us it'd probably be historic cold reading some posts from back there

Probably will be the first snow in a lot of places