Caribbean - Central America Weather

[cycloneye]

Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED
National Weather Service San Juan PR
328 AM AST Mon Jan 5 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACH FORECAST...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 256 AM AST Mon Jan 5 2026

* An upper-level trough and frontal boundary will increase shower
and thunderstorm activity today.

* There is an elevated flood risk through Tuesday across Puerto
Rico, particularly during the afternoon and evening hours.

* Across the U.S. Virgin Islands, there is a limited flood risk
through Tuesday, followed by a drying trend for the remainder of
the week. A moderate risk of rip currents will prevail from
midweek onward.

* Life-threatening rip currents are expected on Wednesday and
Thursday along the northwest to northeast beaches of Puerto
Rico.

&&

.Short Term(Today through Wednesday)...
Issued at 256 AM AST Mon Jan 5 2026

Similar to last night, mostly fair conditions prevailed across the
CWA, with most of the shower activity remaining across local waters
and some moving over portions of eastern Puerto Rico, including
Vieques. Since winds weakened and became light and variable, showers
persisted longer. CWOP and RAW stations reported mid-to-upper 70s
across coastal and lower elevations, and low to mid-60s across
higher elevations. Temperatures should slightly drop near sunrise,
with localized areas dropping into the upper 50s.

The short-term remains on track, with few changes for the end of the
period. Current satellite-derived products show the deep-layered
trough inducing a surface trough north of Hispaniola, producing
scattered showers and thunderstorms. As the trough approaches the
local area, a resulting cold region should move across the region,
weakening surface winds and becoming light and variable. As the col
moves out of the local area, AGL winds will strengthen and veer from
the northeast. Confidence is increasing between model solutions, as
ensembles are tending towards wetter conditions due to low to mid-
level moisture above climatological normal (between 70 and 80 %) and
high chance of PWAT values above 1.6 inches, not typical for this
time of the year. The latest guidance continues to suggest favorable
dynamics for deep convection, as cooler-than-normal mid-level
temperatures (between -10 and -11 degrees Celsius), and strong upper-
level winds (around 80kt), could lead to forced ascent, cloud
growth, and ventilation. The advective pattern will be the main
driver of showers and isolated thunderstorms throughout the day,
with the highest chance of flooding tonight into early Tuesday,
moving across local waters and windward sections of the islands.
Afternoon convection over the mountain ranges and southern hills of
Puerto Rico is still very likely, if cloud cover allows it. Due to
weakening winds, showers and thunderstorms will very likely become
stationary, producing higher rainfall accumulations and increased
flood potential. Over the U.S. Virgin Islands, mostly ponding of
water over roads, urban, and poorly drained areas, while southern
and eastern Puerto Rico will experience higher accumulations leading
to urban and small stream flooding, with a low chance of flash
flooding. Given the expected conditions, the flood threat will
remain limited to elevated. The lightning risk will remain limited,
though scattered thunderstorms across the local Atlantic waters and
passages cannot be ruled out.

The drier airmass seems to be delayed, expected to filter by late
Tuesday night instead of the afternoon, based on the latest
deterministic guidance of the GFS and AIGFS. Additionally, the 00z
solutions show enhanced upper-level divergence across the CWA,
meaning the presence of "troughiness" and instability aloft. With
the lingering moisture, the chance remains medium to high for the
development of showers and thunderstorms on Tuesday afternoon,
particularly over portions of interior and southwestern Puerto Rico.
Due to the expected rainfall accumulations and previous shower
activity, the flood potential will increase over the aforementioned
areas, hence, the flood threat will remain limited to elevated. As
the trough migrates eastward, the subsidence side of the trough
should bring more stable conditions across the CWA on Wednesday.
With drier-than-normal conditions (PWATs between 1.0 and 1.2
inches), the probability of precipitation will remain low, bringing
mostly fair conditions across the islands. As winds remain from the
NE through most of the period, temperatures should remain
seasonal.

&&

.Long Term(Thursday through Monday)...
Issued at 256 AM AST Mon Jan 5 2026

A building surface high pressure over the western Atlantic will
promote moderate to locally fresh east to northeasterly trades
during the long term period. A weak induced surface trough northeast
of the region will bring a brief surge in moisture content late in
the workweek, while a drying trend is expected during the weekend.
At upper levels, a ridge from the southwestern Atlantic and a
developing TUTT-low from the central Atlantic will promote drier
air aloft and more stable conditions in general. Therefore,
showers that form through the period are not expected to produce
heavy rainfall or grow into thunderstorms. These showers will be
mainly driven by the increasing trades, favoring an advective
pattern at night, with showers moving briefly at times across the
USVI and along the east and north sections of PR. Shallow
afternoon convection is expected over the Cordillera and southern
sections of PR, but the flood risk will remain low as rainfall
accumulations are not expected to exceed an inch of rain per day.
A TUTT induced surface trough is expected to increase moisture
content from the northeast once again early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 256 AM AST Mon Jan 5 2026

VFR conds should prevail most of the time across all TAF sites,
though a sfc trof approaching the CWA will bring -TSRA/+TSRA that
will lead to VCTS for most terminals aft 05/13z. PROB30s for JPS,
IST, and ISX btwn 05/18-21z, and for JSJ btwn 06/03-06z due -TSRA
reducing CIGs/VIS and resulting in brf MVFR conds. Winds from the NE
will slgtly increase, btwn 6 - 10 kt, around 05/13-14z, becoming
light and VRB once again after 05/23z.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 256 AM AST Mon Jan 5 2026

A frontal boundary with an associated polar trough approaching
the local waters will promote light northerly to northeasterly
winds, and an increase in shower and thunderstorm activity
through at least Tuesday. A long period northerly swell is
expected to arrive by midweek, building seas up to 6 feet and
occasionally higher, particularly across the Atlantic waters and
the Caribbean Passages. Small craft operators should continue to
monitor forecasts for potential changes in marine conditions.

&&

.BEACH FORECAST...
Issued at 256 AM AST Mon Jan 5 2026

A long period northerly swell will cause rough surf and life-
threatening rip currents by midweek across the north-facing beaches
of Puerto Rico. Breaking waves could range between 6 and 8 feet,
and occasionally higher, particularly on Wednesday. Elsewhere, the
risk will be moderate, except along the southern beaches where
the risk will remain low throughout the week.

[cycloneye]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
444 AM AST Tue Jan 6 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACH FORECAST...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 405 AM AST Tue Jan 6 2026

* Northerly winds and shower activity will prevail today as a
front moves over the region.

* Weather conditions will improve by this evening after the frontal
passage, with drier, cooler air leading to below-normal minimum
temperatures early Wednesday morning.

* Life-threatening rip currents are expected on Wednesday and
Thursday along the northwest to northeast beaches of PR, with a
moderate risk for the north and east-facing beaches in the
USVI.

&&

.Short Term(Today through Thursday)...
Issued at 405 AM AST Tue Jan 6 2026

Shower and thunderstorm activity persisted yesterday afternoon and
overnight, with the highest rainfall accumulations over portions of
Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands. Based on WSR-88D rainfall
estimates, these areas received between 1 and 2 inches, higher in
localized areas. Taking a look at the 24-hour precipitation reports
from CWOP, ASOS, and RAW stations across the CWA, the highest
accumulations in Puerto Rico were reported at Cayey and Guayama
(1.64 and 2.16 inches, respectively). Meanwhile, across the U.S.
Virgin Islands, a station near the Henry E. Rohlsen International
Airport reported 0.95 inches. Nevertheless, no flash flood reports
were received. Although cloud cover persisted during the night,
temperatures decreased as stations at lower elevations reported low
to mid-70s, while those at higher elevations reported 60s. With
winds with a northerly component and cloud cover diminishing,
temperatures will continue to decrease, with localized areas at
higher elevations reaching the upper 50s.

Some changes were introduced to the short term forecast, as the
unsettled conditions should continue today, Three Kings Day, and
gradually improve tomorrow and Thursday. Current satellite-derived
products show the frontal boundary associated with the polar trough
across the CWA, producing showers and isolated thunderstorms. In
terms of instability, today is the best chance of thunderstorm
development, as lingering upper-level divergence, cooler than normal
mid-level temperatures (around -10 degrees Celsius), and an upper-
level jet streak producing winds between 60 and 80 kt, allowing
cloud growth and ventilation. Based on the latest HIRES models, the
advective pattern is expected to continue today, with showers and
isolated thunderstorms moving over windward sections across the
islands. For the afternoon convection, the latest solutions suggest
less widespread shower and thunderstorm activity compared to
yesterday, localized over portions of southwestern Puerto Rico. As
surface winds will begin to increase and low to mid-level moisture
should gradually decrease (700 - 500 mb RH below 20%) throughout the
day, rainfall accumulations should remain limited, leading to
ponding of water over roadways and poorly drained areas, with a low
chance of urban and small stream flooding. Hence, the flooding risk
will now remain limited over northern, southwestern, and eastern
Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands.

As the front moves away from the region, a surface high pressure
building in the western Atlantic will promote winds from the N-NE,
with a drier air mass filtering into the region. Based on the latest
model guidance, PWAT values are expected to plummet below
climatological normal values by late tonight (PWAT between 1.1 and
1.3 inches). Additionally, the CWA is expected to be under the
subsident side of the upper-level trough, bringing more stable
conditions aloft. Hence, shower activity should remain limited on
Wednesday. Moisture content will gradually increase to more typical
values (PWAT between 1.2 and 1.4 inches) as a surface trough lingers
northeast of the region, increasing the frequency of isolated
showers over windward sections. Nevertheless, conditions should be
unfavorable for the development of thunderstorm activity. Hence, the
flood and lightning threat is not expected for the rest of the
forecast period.

&&

.Long Term(Friday through Tuesday)...
Issued at 405 AM AST Tue Jan 6 2026

A surface high pressure moving from the western Atlantic into the
central Atlantic will promote moderate to locally fresh east to
northeasterly trades during the long term period. A weak induced
surface trough northeast of the region will bring at times patches
of low-level moisture over the islands, particularly on Friday and
Saturday. During the second half of the forecast period, at the
upper levels, a ridge over the southwestern Atlantic and a
developing TUTT-low from the north central Atlantic will promote
drier air aloft and more stable conditions in general. Therefore,
showers that form through the period are not expected to produce
heavy rainfall or grow into thunderstorms. These showers will be
mainly driven by the increasing northeasterly trades, favoring an
advective pattern at night, with showers moving at times across
the USVI and along the east and north sections of PR. Shallow
afternoon convection is expected over the Cordillera and the
southern sections of PR, but the flood risk will remain low as
rainfall accumulations are not expected to exceed an inch of rain
per day.

By early next week, global models now have the strong TUTT-low
and induced surface trough a little farther away of the islands.
This solution now suggest a drier weather trend than previously
expected, with the GFS indicating a minimum in precipitable water
content of 1.00-1.25 inches on Monday and Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 405 AM AST Tue Jan 6 2026

Mainly VFR conds expcd across all TAF sites, with VCTS and brf prds
of -RA for ISX and IST due nearby -TSRA/+TSRA throughout the day.
Winds from the N-NE will increase btwn 10 - 12 kt, with gusts up to
20 kt over IST aft 06/13-14z. PROB30s for JSJ and JPS today btwn 18 -
21z due -TSRA reducing CIGs/VIS and leading to tempo MVFR conds.
Winds will once again weaken and become light and VRB aft
06/22-23z.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 405 AM AST Tue Jan 6 2026

Light to moderate northerly winds will continue today as a frontal
boundary moves across the region. Showers and isolated thunderstorms
are expected to continue through most of the morning hours. A long
period northerly swell is expected to arrive on Wednesday, building
seas up to 6 feet, particularly across the Atlantic waters and Caribbean
Passages. A surface high pressure over the western Atlantic and weak
induced surface troughs northeast of the region will promote moderate
east to northeast trades for the rest of the period.

&&

.BEACH FORECAST...
Issued at 405 AM AST Tue Jan 6 2026

A long period northerly swell will cause rough surf and life-
threatening rip currents across the north-facing beaches of
Puerto Rico, particularly on Wednesday. Elsewhere, the risk of rip
currents will be moderate, except along the southern beaches of
the islands where the risk will remain low throughout the week.

[cycloneye]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
342 AM AST Wed Jan 7 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 330 AM AST Wed Jan 7 2026

* Life-threatening rip currents are expected today and Thursday
along the northwest to northeast beaches of Puerto Rico. A
moderate to risk will continue along the the north and east-
facing beaches of the U.S. Virgin Islands.

* Drier air behind the frontal boundary will continue to filter
into the area today, with few passing showers reaching Puerto
Rico and the Virgin Islands, mostly during the morning and
evening hours.

* Seasonal temperatures are anticipated throughout the week with
highs in the low to mid 80s along the lower elevations of the
islands, and the mid to upper 70s in the higher mountains.

&&

.Short Term(Today through Friday)...
Issued at 330 AM AST Wed Jan 7 2026

Life-threatening rip currents along the northern beaches will be the
main hazard today and tomorrow.

Partly cloudy skies were observed across the islands during the
overnight hours. Passing showers were noted along the northern and
eastern sections of the islands, with Doppler radar estimates of
half an inch of rain over Manati and San Juan. Minimum temperatures
were from the upper 60s to low 70s across the lower elevations of
the islands to the upper 50s and mid-60s across the higher
elevations of Puerto Rico. The wind was light with a northerly
component.

For the rest of the short-term period, a similar weather pattern is
expected as a surface trough east of the region and east to
northeasterly winds brings an influx of shallow moisture content
over the area. The overall precipitable water content is expected to
range between 1.20-1.40 inches, which goes from the 25th to the 50th
percentile for this time of the year. At the mid-and upper-levels, a
ridge is expected to slowly build from the southwestern Atlantic,
promoting drier air intrusion aloft. However, only slightly warmer
500mb temperatures (around minus 7/8C) are expected, which are still
within normal seasonal levels. In summary, showers are expected each
day, and under light to moderate east to northeasterly trades,
passing showers are expected at times along the northern and eastern
sections of the islands. Shallow afternoon convection is expected to
develop over portions of the Cordillera and SW PR each afternoon,
where rainfall accumulations up to an inch and locally higher are
possible, particularly on Thursday.

In term of temperatures, daily highs are expected to range from the
mid-to upper-80s along the southern coast of PR to the low and mid-
80s across the rest of the lower elevations of the islands. Due to
the expected showers and clouds at night, seasonal temperatures are
expected at night, with minimums ranging from the upper 50s across
the higher elevations of PR to the low 70s across coastal areas.

&&

.Long Term(Saturday through Wednesday)...
Issued at 330 AM AST Wed Jan 7 2026

A strong surface high-pressure system will shift from the western to
the central Atlantic during the first half of the long-term period,
maintaining moderate to locally fresh east-northeast winds through
midweek. The forecast remains on track as a weak surface-induced
trough brings patches of moisture into the region on Saturday;
however, precipitable water values will remain at normal to slightly
below climatological normals, ranging between 1.15 and 1.35 inches.
Despite these relatively dry conditions, the combination of east-
northeast flow, daytime heating, and local effects will likely
trigger afternoon showers across portions of southwestern Puerto
Rico, though rainfall accumulations should remain below 1.00 inch.

By Monday and continuing through midweek, upper-level dynamics will
shift as a ridge builds over the southwestern Atlantic and a
Tropical Upper Tropospheric Trough (TUTT) develops over the north-
central Atlantic. These features will promote drier air aloft and
generally more stable conditions. Consequently, shower activity
during this period will be driven primarily by the northeasterly
trade winds, favoring an advective pattern that brings passing
showers to the U.S. Virgin Islands and northern and eastern Puerto
Rico, particularly during the overnight and early morning hours.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 330 AM AST Wed Jan 7 2026

Mainly VFR conditions expected to prevail across all terminals
during the next 24 hours. However, -SHRA embedded in the trades
could move at times in and around TJSJ/TIST. Also, iso/sct shra and
sct/bkn cigs btw FL030-FL060 are expected near TJPS btw 07/17z-21z.
NE winds up to 12 kt with sea breeze variations and higher gusts
expected aft 07/14z.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 330 AM AST Wed Jan 7 2026

A long-period northeasterly swell is expected to spread across the
Atlantic waters and local Caribbean passages, resulting in building
seas up to 6 feet. Small craft should exercise caution under these
conditions. A surface high pressure over the western Atlantic, along
with weak induced surface troughs northeast of the region, will
promote moderate east to northeast trade winds today through the
the rest of the week.


&&

.BEACH FORECAST...
Issued at 330 AM AST Wed Jan 7 2026

A long-period northerly swell will cause rough surf and life-
threatening rip currents across the north-facing beaches of Puerto
Rico today through at least Thursday. Elsewhere, the risk of rip
currents will be moderate, except along the southern beaches of
the islands where the risk will remain low throughout the week.

[cycloneye]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
440 AM AST Thu Jan 8 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 403 AM AST Thu Jan 8 2026

* Life-threatening rip currents are expected along the north and
east-facing beaches of Puerto Rico through this afternoon due to
a persistent northeasterly swell across the local Atlantic
waters. A moderate risk will continue for north and east-
facing beaches of the U.S. Virgin Islands.

* Expect passing morning showers across the windward areas of
Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands, and afternoon showers
across the interior and southwest Puerto Rico.

* Seasonal temperatures will prevail across the islands through
the next several days, with cooler conditions continuing in the
higher elevations.

&&

.Short Term(Today through Saturday)...
Issued at 403 AM AST Thu Jan 8 2026

Clear to partly cloudy skies were observed across the islands during
the overnight hours. Passing showers were noted mainly across the
regional waters, and briefly along the northern and eastern sections
of Puerto Rico. Little to no rainfall was observed across the U.S.
Virgin Islands. Minimum temperatures were from the upper 60s to low
70s across the lower elevations of the islands to the upper 50s and
mid-60s across the higher elevations of Puerto Rico. Mostly light
winds prevailed over land areas with a northeasterly component and
gusts around 12 mph.

A weak, broad trough east/northeast of the region is expected to
increase the overall moisture content today. However, pockets of dry
air will also be carried by the light to moderate east to northeast
trades. This weather pattern will continue during the next few days,
and as the trough pulls further into the central Atlantic, a surface
high pressure building over the western Atlantic will promote
stronger winds by Saturday and increase the frequency of passing
showers across the islands in general. Therefore, expect showers to
move at times during the nighttime across the USVI, and
east/northern sections of PR during the night. In the afternoon, the
available limited moisture content in combination with daytime
heating and the sea breeze convergence will cause showers to develop
over portions of the Cordillera, including the southern and western
slopes.

Seasonal temperatures will prevail throughout the short-term period,
resulting in generally pleasant conditions across the islands. High
temperatures will remain near climatological normals. However,
slightly warmer temperatures are expected each day along the
southern portions of PR, where max temps could reach the upper 80s.
Cooler conditions are expected at night under mostly clear skies
across the higher elevations and valleys of PR.

&&

.Long Term(Sunday through Thursday)...
Issued at 403 AM AST Thu Jan 8 2026

Surface high pressure over the north-central Atlantic will promote
moderate to locally fresh east-northeast winds through late Tuesday
night. From Wednesday onward, winds are expected to shift from the
east as the high pressure migrates toward the eastern Atlantic. At
the mid-to-upper levels, a ridge will build over the southwestern
Atlantic while a Tropical Upper Tropospheric Trough (TUTT) begins to
develop over the central Atlantic, northeast of the Lesser Antilles.

The latest model guidance continues to suggest precipitable water
(PWAT) values will remain near normal on Sunday before dropping
below seasonal averages by Monday (0.85 to 1.21 inches). Despite the
strength of the TUTT low to the northeast, dry air intrusion
associated with the mid-to-upper level ridge will promote stable
conditions aloft. This will inhibit shower development across Puerto
Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands throughout the period.

Temperatures at the 925 mb level will remain near seasonal averages.
Consequently, expect maximum temperatures in the low to mid-80s
across lower elevations and in the mid to upper 70s across higher
terrain.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 403 AM AST Thu Jan 8 2026

Mainly VFR conditions are expected to prevail across all terminals
during the next 24 hours. However, brief periods of -RA/VCSH are
expected thru the early morning hours at TJSJ/TJBQ. Locally induced
SHRA over central PR, may cause tempo MVFR cigs at TJPS btw 08/17z-
21z. E-ENE winds up to 12 kt with sea breeze variations and higher
gusts expected aft 08/13z.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 403 AM AST Thu Jan 8 2026

A long-period northeasterly swell will continue to spread across
the Atlantic waters and local Caribbean passages through today,
resulting in building seas between 4 to 6 feet. A surface high
pressure over the western Atlantic, along with weak induced
surface troughs northeast of the region, will promote moderate
east to northeast trade winds today through the the rest of the
week.

&&

.BEACH FORECAST...
Issued at 403 AM AST Thu Jan 8 2026

Hazardous coastal conditions will continue across the local beaches
through at least this afternoon due to a spreading northeasterly
swell affecting the Atlantic waters. This swell will maintain
life- threatening rip current conditions along the northwest to
northeast-facing beaches of Puerto Rico, where a High Rip Current
Risk remains in effect until later today. Life-threatening rip
currents are possible along north and east-facing beaches of the
U.S. Virgin Islands, where a moderate rip current risk is
expected.

[cycloneye]

FXCA62 TJSJ 090842
AFDSJU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
442 AM AST Fri Jan 9 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACH FORECAST...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 418 AM AST Fri Jan 9 2026

* Showers and localized flooding risk this afternoon: Afternoon
showers are expected across western Puerto Rico, with brief,
heavy rainfall that may cause ponding in poorly drained and
urban areas.

* Pleasant overnight temperatures: Below-normal to seasonably
cool minimum temperatures are expected across Puerto Rico and
the US Virgin Islands overnight and early morning.

* Moderate rip current risk: Rip currents are possible along the
Atlantic-facing beaches of Puerto Rico, Culebra, St Thomas, St
John, and the north and east-facing beaches in St Croix.
Hazardous swimming conditions are possible at exposed beaches.

&&

.Short Term(Today through Sunday)...
Issued at 418 AM AST Fri Jan 9 2026

Overnight, Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands experienced calm
weather under clear to partly cloudy skies. While passing showers
were observed across the region, most remained over the Atlantic and
Caribbean waters. A few reached portions of St. Croix, resulting in
minimal rainfall accumulation. Overnight lows ranged from the upper
60s to low 70s across lower elevations, while higher elevations in
Puerto Rico observed temperatures in the upper 50s and low 60s.
Winds remained light and variable throughout the night.

A weak surface trough lingering northeast of the region will
continue to bring trade wind showers into the islands. Recent
precipitable water (PWAT) suggests moisture levels remaining near or
slightly below seasonal levels (1.20 to 1.45 inches) through early
next week.

Today, passing trade wind showers will continue to affect windward
sections of the islands. During the afternoon, limited moisture
combined with daytime heating and sea breeze convergence will likely
trigger showers across the interior and western to southwestern
Puerto Rico. This weather pattern is expected to persist through
Saturday.

By Sunday, a mid-to-upper-level ridge will build over the
southwestern Atlantic, while a Tropical Upper Tropospheric Trough
(TUTT) begins to develop over the central Atlantic, northeast of the
Lesser Antilles. Consequently, patches of low-level moisture will
continue to drift over the islands, bringing morning showers and
potential afternoon convection over interior and southwestern Puerto
Rico. As temperatures at the 500 mb level drop to approximately -
10°C, isolated thunderstorms cannot be ruled out during the
afternoon hours.

Temperatures at the 925 mb level are expected to remain near
climatological normals. Daytime highs will reach the low to mid-80s
across lower elevations and the mid to upper 70s across the higher
elevations of Puerto Rico.

&&

.Long Term(Monday through Friday)...
Issued at 418 AM AST Fri Jan 9 2026

Looking ahead into early next week, a deep-layer mid-to-upper-
level trough is forecast to amplify over the Atlantic Ocean east
of the northeast Caribbean on Monday. This feature will migrate
further into the Central Atlantic by Tuesday or Wednesday. As it
moves, it will generate surface disturbances that the prevailing
trade winds will advect into Puerto Rico and the US Virgin
Islands, resulting in periods of shower activity. Simultaneously,
a mid-to-upper-level ridge will build over the Northeast
Caribbean. This feature is expected to limit the vertical
development of showers and promote subsidence aloft (sinking air)
due to the presence of a dry air mass.

Model discrepancies exist around Thursday, January 15, regarding
the strength of the ridge versus the influence of a secondary
trough. ECMWF 09/00z suggests a mid-to-upper-level ridge holding
firm over the region, maintaining suppressed convective activity.
GFS 09/00z proposes a mid-to-upper-level trough swinging by the
area, which would displace the ridge and provide more favorable
upper-level dynamics for precipitation. However, the GFS also
indicates an increase in mid-to-upper-level cloud cover, which
may inhibit widespread vertical development despite the favorable
dynamics.

Given the aforementioned weather pattern, residents and visitors
in PR and the USVI can anticipate brief periods of passing
showers, especially in the evening and early morning hours in
windward locations and in the afternoon in leeward locations
(western and interior PR).

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 418 AM AST Fri Jan 9 2026

Mainly VFR conds are expected to prevail across all terminals during
the forecast period. Brief VCSH/SHRA are expected this morning at
TJSJ/TIST/TISX aft 09/13Z-14Z. Locally induced SHRA over central and
southwestern PR, may cause brief tempo MVFR cigs at TJPS btw 09/17Z-
21Z. E-ENE winds btw 08 to 14 kt with sea breeze variations and
higher gusts expected aft 09/13z.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 418 AM AST Fri Jan 9 2026

A long-period northeasterly swell continues to spread across the
Atlantic waters and local Caribbean passages, gradually subsiding
today. A surface high pressure over the western Atlantic, along with
weak induced surface troughs northeast of the region, will promote
moderate east to northeast trade winds today through the the rest of
the week.

&&

.BEACH FORECAST...
Issued at 418 AM AST Fri Jan 9 2026

A moderate risk of rip currents is in place along the Atlantic-
facing beaches of Puerto Rico, St. Thomas, and St. John, as well
as the north- and east-facing beaches of St. Croix. Under these
conditions, rip currents are possible, particularly at exposed
beaches, and can pose a hazard to swimmers. Beachgoers are urged
to exercise caution, remain near lifeguarded areas when available,
and avoid entering the water if conditions appear unsafe.

[cycloneye]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
205 PM AST Fri Jan 9 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACH FORECAST...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 205 PM AST Fri Jan 9 2026

* Swim with caution: A moderate risk of rip currents continues
along Atlantic-facing beaches of Puerto Rico and Culebra, as
well as the north- and east-facing beaches of St. Croix, with
the risk expanding to western Puerto Rico and the northern U.S.
Virgin Islands on Sunday. Dangerous swimming conditions are
possible at exposed beaches.

* Passing showers, localized flooding risk: A typical trade-wind
pattern will bring passing showers to windward areas during the
mornings and isolated to locally scattered afternoon downpours,
mainly across south-central interior to southwestern Puerto
Rico. Localized flooding impacts are possible, especially across
the southwestern quadrant, though widespread flooding is not
expected.

* cool nights, typical warmth by day: Slightly below-normal to
seasonably cool overnight temperatures will continue across
Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands, while daytime highs
remain warm but near typical values for this time of
year.Hazardous swimming conditions are possible at exposed
beaches.

&&

.Short Term(This evening through Sunday)...
Issued at 205 PM AST Fri Jan 9 2026

Today, winds were generally light, with local sea-breeze
circulations producing briefly moderate breezes along exposed
coastal areas. A patch of low-level moisture moved across the U.S.
Virgin Islands and into eastern Puerto Rico, bringing isolated to
scattered showers and trade-wind streamers. Radar estimates
showed up to around one-half inch of rainfall across parts of the
USVI and northeastern Puerto Rico, with no significant impacts
observed. Morning lows dropped into the upper 50s across higher
elevations and the mid-70s across the USVI, while afternoon highs
reached the lower 70s in higher terrain and the mid-80s in coastal
and urban areas.

Tonight, trade winds will increase to a moderate ENE–NE breeze as
a building surface high shifts eastward over the western-central
Atlantic, maintaining a steady influx of low-level moisture. This
will result in patches of clouds and fast-moving trade-wind
showers, mainly affecting the USVI, Vieques, Culebra, and northern
and eastern Puerto Rico, with brief inland spillover at times. A
departing upper-level trough will place the region under
increasing subsidence, promoting mid-level drying and limited
instability. As a result, showers will be brief and become more
isolated overnight, with no significant rainfall expected. Patchy
fog may redevelop late tonight, mainly across higher elevations
and interior valleys. Overnight lows will again fall into the mid
to lower 50s in the mountains, with milder lows across lower
elevations. Land-based hazard risks will remain low to none
tonight.

A typical trade-wind pattern will persist through Saturday and
Sunday, bringing mostly favorable weather for outdoor activities,
except for brief showers. Morning showers will favor windward
areas, with isolated and very localized afternoon showers possible
over south-central to southwestern Puerto Rico due to daytime
heating and sea-breeze convergence. The driest conditions are
expected early Sunday morning. Later Sunday, a mid-level low and
an associated surface-induced trough approaching from the
northeast will gradually increase moisture, leading to more
cloudiness and scattered showers, along with a brief easterly wind
shift before ENE–NE flow returns. Temperatures will be near
normal Saturday, become slightly warmer late Saturday night into
Sunday, with cooler nighttime lows returning Sunday night. Aside
from a localized, limited excessive rainfall risk, overall hazard
risks will remain low to none, though continued limited rainfall
may allow dry conditions to persist or worsen, increasing
localized drought and fire-weather concerns.


&&

.Long Term(Monday through next Thursday)...
Issued at 418 AM AST Fri Jan 9 2026

Looking ahead into early next week, a deep-layer mid-to-upper-
level trough is forecast to amplify over the Atlantic Ocean east
of the northeast Caribbean on Monday. This feature will migrate
further into the Central Atlantic by Tuesday or Wednesday. As it
moves, it will generate surface disturbances that the prevailing
trade winds will advect into Puerto Rico and the US Virgin
Islands, resulting in periods of shower activity. Simultaneously,
a mid-to-upper-level ridge will build over the Northeast
Caribbean. This feature is expected to limit the vertical
development of showers and promote subsidence aloft (sinking air)
due to the presence of a dry air mass.

Model discrepancies exist around Thursday, January 15, regarding
the strength of the ridge versus the influence of a secondary
trough. ECMWF 09/00z suggests a mid-to-upper-level ridge holding
firm over the region, maintaining suppressed convective activity.
GFS 09/00z proposes a mid-to-upper-level trough swinging by the
area, which would displace the ridge and provide more favorable
upper-level dynamics for precipitation. However, the GFS also
indicates an increase in mid-to-upper-level cloud cover, which
may inhibit widespread vertical development despite the favorable
dynamics.

Given the aforementioned weather pattern, residents and visitors
in PR and the USVI can anticipate brief periods of passing
showers, especially in the evening and early morning hours in
windward locations and in the afternoon in leeward locations
(western and interior PR).

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 205 PM AST Fri Jan 9 2026

Mainly VFR conditions are expected across all terminals. Brief
VCSH/SHRA will continue to affect the USVI terminals and TJSJ as
trade-wind showers move inland from the waters. Locally induced
SHRA over interior and southwestern Puerto Rico may cause brief
MVFR cigs at TJPS between 16–20Z each day. Winds will be E–ENE
8–14 kt, becoming light and variable (3–6 kt) after 09/22Z, then
increasing again to a moderate breeze (10–14 kt) with sea-breeze
variations after 10/13Z.&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 205 PM AST Fri Jan 9 2026

A long-period northeasterly swell across the Atlantic waters and
local Caribbean passages will continue to subside tonight. A
surface high over the western-central Atlantic, along with weak
surface troughing northeast of the region, will promote moderate
ENE–NE trade winds tonight, becoming more easterly during the
weekend. Marine conditions are expected to remain generally
favorable for small craft, though choppy seas may develop across
the Atlantic waters on Sunday, especially as the trades
strengthen.&&

.BEACH FORECAST...
Issued at 205 PM AST Fri Jan 9 2026

A moderate risk of rip currents remains in effect for Atlantic-
facing beaches of Puerto Rico and Culebra, as well as north- and
east-facing beaches of St. Croix, where life-threatening rip
currents are possible, particularly along exposed beaches. The
moderate rip current risk may expand to western Puerto Rico and
the northern U.S. Virgin Islands by Sunday as winds and swell
conditions evolve. Beachgoers are urged to exercise caution, stay
near lifeguarded beaches when available, and avoid entering the
water if conditions appear unsafe.

[cycloneye]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
513 AM AST Sun Jan 11 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACH FORECAST...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 500 AM AST Sun Jan 11 2026

* A moderate risk of rip currents continues along the north facing
beaches of Puerto Rico and Culebra today.

* A typical trade-wind pattern will bring passing showers to
windward areas of Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands,
mainly overnight and early in the morning, with afternoon
showers, especially across southwestern Puerto Rico. Localized
ponding or minor flooding is possible in poor drainage areas of
Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands.

* Near-seasonal temperatures will continue across Puerto Rico and
the U.S. Virgin Islands, with comfortable daytime temperatures
for outdoor activities through around mid-week, then guidance
indicates above-normal temperatures for end of the week.

&&

.Short Term(Today through Tuesday)...
Issued at 500 AM AST Sun Jan 11 2026

Southern and western Puerto Rico, as well as St. Croix, observed
mostly clear skies with pleasant temperatures. In contrast, the
northern U.S. Virgin Islands and the north and east Puerto Rico
experienced occasional fast-moving showers, producing periods of
moderate to locally heavy rainfall overnight. Minimum temperatures
ranged from the low 70s across coastal areas to the low 60s, and
locally lower, across interior valleys and mountainous regions.
Winds were generally from the northeast at around 5 mph, with
localized land-breeze variations.

A mid- to upper-level trough continues to move eastward away from
the northeastern Caribbean into the Atlantic, periodically
perturbing the trade wind flow. These perturbations will support
intermittent moisture surges, resulting in passing showers across
windward areas of Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands over the
next few days. Meanwhile, a surface high pressure north of the
region will shift farther east as a weak, surface-induced trough
moves through the local area. This pattern will allow low-level
winds to veer slightly more easterly at times; however, a prevailing
northeasterly steering flow is expected to persist.

Under this synoptic setup, a typical trade-wind advective pattern is
anticipated today through Tuesday. Evening and morning showers will
mainly affect windward and coastal areas, followed by afternoon
convection driven by local effects, primarily across western Puerto
Rico each day, where we cannot rule out one or two thunderstorms.
Rainfall impacts are expected to remain limited overall, though
brief periods of moderate to locally heavy rainfall are possible
with passing showers, particularly along windward locations. Across
western Puerto Rico, localized ponding of water on roads and in
poorly drained areas may occur during afternoon convection. While
widespread flooding is not anticipated, isolated urban flooding
cannot be ruled out.

&&

.Long Term(Wednesday through Sunday)...
Issued at 500 AM AST Sun Jan 11 2026

During the long-term period, a deep-layer mid to upper-level
trough will continue shifting eastward away from the Lesser
Antilles, while a weak mid to upper-level ridge builds over the
northeastern Caribbean. Precipitable water values are forecast to
range between 1.4 and 1.9 inches, near to above climatological
normal for this time of year, with peak moisture expected on
Friday.

Low-level winds will generally remain from the east to southeast
through Friday, then shift to the east-northeast on Saturday and
Sunday while increasing in speed. Model guidance suggests a
frontal boundary will remain north of the region, while a pre-
frontal trough may enhance moisture convergence and atmospheric
instability, supporting a wetter pattern around Friday and again
next Saturday. At this time, Friday appears to present the highest
rainfall potential, with a limited flood risk mainly across
western Puerto Rico during the afternoon hours. Isolated thunderstorm
activity cannot be ruled out as mid-level temperatures cool, with
500 mb temperatures decreasing from near -5 degrees C on Wednesday
to around -8 degrees C by the end of the week.

Ensemble guidance continues to indicate above-normal temperatures
across Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands throughout the
long-term period.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 500 AM AST Sun Jan 11 2026

VFR conditions will prevail today. However, occasional -SHRA/SHRA
will move across JSJ/IST/ISX throughout the day, followed by some
activity near JPS during the afternoon. This activity will bring
brief MVFR conditions at these sites. We cannot rule out one or two
TSRA/-TSRA across the interior and SW-PR between 11/16-23z. A
similar weather pattern is possible for tomorrow. Winds will be calm
to light and variable each night, returning from the NE/E at 10-15kt
with higher gusts, and a sea breeze aft 13z.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 500 AM AST Sun Jan 11 2026

A surface high pressure moving eastward across the western Atlantic,
combined with a weak surface trough northeast of the region, will
maintain moderate east to northeast winds across the local waters
through the middle of next week. This pattern will support passing
trade-wind showers, mainly across the Atlantic waters, with occasional
showers also moving through the Caribbean passages at times. Wind
flow becoming east to southeast around Thursday and Friday. Toward
the latter part of the workweek and into the weekend, strengthening
winds and the arrival of a long-period northerly swell may result in
choppy and potentially hazardous marine conditions. Mariners are
advised to continue monitoring the forecast.

&&

.BEACH FORECAST...
Issued at 500 AM AST Sun Jan 11 2026

Today, a moderate risk of rip currents is in place for the
northern and eastern beaches of Puerto Rico, as well as Culebra,
with breaking waves around 4 feet. Similar conditions are expected
to persist over the next few days, with the moderate risk at
times extending to the northwestern beaches of Puerto Rico and the
U.S. Virgin Islands. A moderate risk indicates that life-
threatening rip currents are possible within the surf zone.

A low risk will prevail across southern, more protected areas;
however, life-threatening rip currents can still occur near
groins, jetties, reefs, and piers even when the overall risk is
low. For more location-specific information, continue to monitor
weather.gov/beach/sju.

By next weekend, conditions may deteriorate, with the potential
for a high risk of rip currents to return.