Texas Spring 2026

[Cpv17]

Chilly just now standing in the shade for a fire drill. Good news this is my conference period and I had no students.

Last chilly morning of the year?

Tomorrow morning will be a few degrees colder.

[TomballEd]

Day 6 and 7 15% for west central TX/OK per the SPC.

EPS and 0Z operational have a signal for flooding in the Hill Country (and parts of the Big Country and NC Texas). This signal has been present for several days.

As long as nobody drowns (not too big a flood) and some of it falls in the Edwards recharge zone, it could be a good thing.

[Ntxw]

Not surprised the look on the ensembles for a big rain event. April and or May usually has them for the major El Ninos and this one potentially is a big one. Noted before, it's not always the flashy looking outbreaks but volume of rain and storms can produce and isolated but a big tornado event has happened before in TX during these increased rainfall/Nino coupling. Jarrell.

[Cpv17]

Not surprised the look on the ensembles for a big rain event. April and or May usually has them for the major El Ninos and this one potentially is a big one. Noted before, it's not always the flashy looking outbreaks but volume of rain and storms can produce and isolated but a big tornado event has happened before in TX during these increased rainfall/Nino coupling. Jarrell.

When do you think the southern part of the state will start seeing more widespread rain?

On another note, people on X drive me crazy. So many people hyping up severe weather on there showing maps that are over two weeks out. Do they not know that has a low chance of actually verifying? Lol

[Ntxw]

Not surprised the look on the ensembles for a big rain event. April and or May usually has them for the major El Ninos and this one potentially is a big one. Noted before, it's not always the flashy looking outbreaks but volume of rain and storms can produce and isolated but a big tornado event has happened before in TX during these increased rainfall/Nino coupling. Jarrell.

When do you think the southern part of the state will start seeing more widespread rain?

On another note, people on X drive me crazy. So many people hyping up severe weather on there showing maps that are over two weeks out. Do they not know that has a low chance of actually verifying? Lol

CPV more likely the latter half of April and better in May. Right now the rainfalls are from leftover northern stream energy systems, they pull northeast and the southern part of the state is the tail end, once forcing pulls away lift struggles. Once more systems start sitting over northern Mexico, it'll better for you all in the south.

[txtwister78]

I don't know but that Euro op run (more importantly its ensemble) looks pretty darn good for areas much further south across the state beginning this weekend into the following week. Euro has been consistent with that signal thus far.

Btw...yes it wasn't as widespread for most as some would've liked for their backyard or area but I thought areas in the LRGV (2-3 inches) to portions of SC TX (1-4 inches) regarding this previous round did pretty well so it's not as if areas in the southern sections of the state aren't benefiting.

As is the case unfortunately with most of these events some do much better than others. But the pattern overall remains active.
.

[Cpv17]

I picked up .63” over the weekend and I was one of the lucky ones. I received more than just about anyone around me.

[Ntxw]

Later this month the standing wave will start to settle and intensify over the Pacific. This is classic El Nino and isn't like 2015 or 2023, in the same way that season started earlier and was hot in the summer. We'll see the more typical El Nino response in the summer time this year, it's looking like.

[wxman22]

The hype on social media for the severe weather potential this weekend and next week is crazy. Some even mentioning 2011,take a chill pill people. LOL

[wxman22]

Wonderful rainfall totals over the last week!

[Cpv17]

The hype on social media for the severe weather potential this weekend and next week is crazy. Some even mentioning 2011,take a chill pill people. LOL

Lol thank you! Completely agree!

[Iceresistance]

The hype on social media for the severe weather potential this weekend and next week is crazy. Some even mentioning 2011,take a chill pill people. LOL

I know there's going to be a lot of severe weather, but there is no way it's going to be like 2011 barring something extremely crazy. 2011 was during a powerful La Nina, this is developing El Nino

Some people

[txtwister78]

I get a chuckle at the social media "weather hype" stuff because it only impacts folks if they choose to follow and get caught up in it. It's not going to stop in this digital age no matter how many wave their finger at it. That's been tried to no avail.

Are we going to see some severe weather with this upcoming setup? Definitely looks that way and so it's up to the public to follow their own trusted source of information during times of inclement weather. That's all you can advise. Hopefully those sources deliver for them and their families

[Brent]

I've been saying it for awhile here but yes the hype has gotten out of control. It's definitely the worst part about living in the Plains to me

I really thought some of these people knew better than that. Apparently I was wrong

Like I lived through 2011 in Alabama when 300 people were dead... Come on guys. Those days are like once in a generation

[HockeyTx82]

I mean it's the same thing regarding winter weather

[Brent]

I mean it's the same thing regarding winter weather

Oh why do you think I was kind of disappointed with our storm in January despite the fact it did snow 8 inches. I know some of y'all didn't see why but that was why because of the insane hype and the posts on social media all week. The expectations were just ridiculous

It gets old and it's the worst part of living here. Everything is always the worst ever

[txtwister78]

I mean it's the same thing regarding winter weather

Oh why do you think I was kind of disappointed with our storm in January despite the fact it did snow 8 inches. I know some of y'all didn't see why but that was why because of the insane hype and the posts on social media all week. The expectations were just ridiculous

It gets old and it's the worst part of living here. Everything is always the worst ever

Probably a good test case/indicator of who to trust and avoid to get your personal weather information going forward.

Not saying this is you personally but if one chooses to follow it and get burned/upset by it when the outcome is constantly wrong, yet they keep going back for more.... Lol??? Some wish cast which attracts a following and some overhype for clicks obviously ($$$)

The irony is some will get frustrated with the NWS because they don't overhype? Lol. Nobody is perfect and with weather that's impossible to achieve but again in times of protecting life and property it shouldn't really be a debate in my opinion.

[TomballEd]

Somebody is excited for a tornado outbreak that would put DFW, OKC, STL and LIT in the middle of it. I get the excitement of one guy, he has been chasing since OU days and now makes money off it. The engineer who surveys tornado damaged structures, not so sure.

[Brent]

I mean it's the same thing regarding winter weather

Oh why do you think I was kind of disappointed with our storm in January despite the fact it did snow 8 inches. I know some of y'all didn't see why but that was why because of the insane hype and the posts on social media all week. The expectations were just ridiculous

It gets old and it's the worst part of living here. Everything is always the worst ever

Probably a good test case/indicator of who to trust and avoid to get your personal weather information going forward.

Not saying this is you personally but if one chooses to follow it and get burned/upset by it when the outcome is constantly wrong, yet they keep going back for more.... Lol??? Some wish cast which attracts a following and some overhype for clicks obviously ($$$)

The irony is some will get frustrated with the NWS because they don't overhype? Lol. Nobody is perfect and with weather that's impossible to achieve but again in times of protecting life and property it shouldn't really be a debate in my opinion.

Oh i totally understand....I've already unfollowed some pages but then you see more... Its definitely been a very eye opening last few months for me here....

Honestly the NWS even didn't help themselves much even back then. They were openly talking about 18 inches in the AFD and stuff but clearly that's in the past now

At this point I'm just trying to reply to some comments and tell people nobody knows this far out but to make sure you know what your plan is ahead of time

[wxman22]

Another severe weather risk added for Monday. Busy weekend ahead.

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0356 AM CDT Tue Apr 07 2026

Valid 101200Z - 151200Z

...DISCUSSION...
...Friday/Day 4 to Sunday/Day 6...
An upper-level trough will move eastward from the eastern Pacific on
Friday into the western U.S. on Saturday, as southwest mid-level
flow gradually strengthens over the south-central states. In
response, low-level moisture advection will continue over the Great
Plains. Ahead of the western U.S. trough, a subtle shortwave trough
is forecast to move into the southern High Plains Saturday
afternoon. A severe threat will be possible ahead of and near the
trough during the afternoon and evening.

On Sunday, the western U.S. upper-level trough is forecast to move
quickly east-northeastward into the southern Rockies. Ahead of the
trough, a moist and moderately unstable airmass is forecast over
much of the southern and central Plains by afternoon. Scattered
thunderstorms appear likely to develop over much of this airmass
during the afternoon and evening. Moderate to strong deep-layer
shear appear likely to be in place, which will be favorable for
severe storms. Supercells with large hail, severe wind gusts and a
tornado threat will be possible. An isolated severe threat may also
develop in parts of the north-central U.S.

...Monday/Day 7 and Tuesday/Day 8...
A secondary upper-level trough is forecast to move into the Desert
Southwest on Monday. Ahead of this system, a moist and unstable
airmass is forecast to remain in place from the southern Plains
north-northeastward into the Upper Midwest. Although a severe threat
will be possible along much of the instability corridor, the
greatest threat is expected to develop in the southern Plains, where
model forecasts show the most favorable environment.

On Tuesday, model forecasts have some agreement concerning the
timing of the trough, which is forecast to eject northeastward
across the southern and central Plains. Ahead of the trough, there
is large variance among the models concerning the distribution of
instability. If a moderately unstable airmass is in place by Tuesday
afternoon ahead of the ejecting system, a severe threat will be
likely from the southern Plains into the mid to upper Mississippi
Valley. However, the system will probably be slower than forecast,
which adds considerable uncertainty this late in the period.

..Broyles.. 04/07/2026