North Carolina Severe Weather -- 040411

[NCn8ochaser]

I was just wondering if/where you all think svr-wx will occur in NC today. I'm using a computer with dial-up and can't connect to maps from Unisys or the SPC Mesoanalysis pages. The Sweat Index for KGSO is 476 (I believe), so that's a little reassuring. From looking at the few maps that are available to me, I've been thinking about just staying in the Raleigh area for now. I'm not going to rely on surface heating all that much for right now due to the fact that it is hazy and rather chilly, but this should change in a few hours. So far I've noticed that we've got Moisture, Heat, Lifting Mechanism, and wind shear w/ height, etc. Well if any of you have any info for me, just reply back here and/or to the following email address. ncn8ochaser@earthlink.net

Thanks for your time,

John Mullen
Team Leader
North Carolina Storm Chasers, Team Two




PS: Cell: 278-8571 NEXTEL: 168555*2
Please only call me if it is relavent to the weather today.

[Stormsfury]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0331
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1105 AM CDT SUN APR 11 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS ERN NC...EXTREME SRN SC

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL

VALID 111605Z - 111830Z

TSTMS ARE FCST TO DEVELOP OVER PORTIONS ERN NC COASTAL PLAIN AND
INLAND SOUND AREAS...IN RAPIDLY DESTABILIZING AIR MASS. DAMAGING
GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE. THREAT MAY EXTEND AS FAR S AS
VICINITY MYR. AREA IS BEING MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE WW.

15Z SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWED FRONTAL-WAVE LOW OFFSHORE VA
BEACH...EXTENDING SWWD THROUGH ECG REGION TO JUST E CLT. AIR MASS E
OF THIS BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO WARM INTO UPPER 70S/LOW 80S F
THROUGH MID AFTERNOON...WEAKENING THE MODEST CAP EVIDENT IN 12Z CHS
RAOB. PER COORD W/CHS...18Z RAOB WILL BE LAUNCHED THERE AS WELL TO
FURTHER ASSESS CHARACTER OF AIR MASS AND WIND FIELDS.
MEANWHILE...SFC DEW POINTS SHOULD REMAIN GENERALLY MID 60S F AS
SSWLY MOIST ADVECTION OFFSETS VERTICAL MIXING. MAIN LOW LEVEL FOCI
FOR CONVECTION SHOULD BE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES AND WEAK CONVERGENCE
LINES WWD TOWARD MAIN BAROCLINIC ZONE. WEAK LOW LEVEL SHEAR
PROFILES BENEATH ROUGHLY 100 KT UPPER JET LEVEL WINDS SUGGEST
ORGANIZED MULTICELLS WILL BE DOMINANT CONVECTIVE MODE. MARGINAL
SUPERCELLS ARE POSSIBLE...HOWEVER...WITH BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS.
ADDITIONAL DESTABILIZATION AND LOCALIZED SHEAR ENHANCEMENT POSSIBLE
OVER WRN PART OF DISCUSSION AREA FROM CONVECTIVELY INDUCED VORTICITY
MAX -- EVIDENT ATTM ON VIS IMAGERY BETWEEN CLT-AVL -- AND MOVING
ENEWD 30-35 KT TOWARD NERN NC.

..EDWARDS.. 04/11/2004


ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...