Look at What Could be Headed My Way...MD is out

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Look at What Could be Headed My Way...MD is out

#1 Postby Guest » Tue Apr 20, 2004 3:34 pm

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(North Platte Radar)

Code: Select all

208
ACUS11 KWNS 202213
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 202212
NEZ000-SDZ000-210045-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0393
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0512 PM CDT TUE APR 20 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...N-CENTRAL AND NERN NEB

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL

VALID 202212Z - 210045Z

SMALL CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS MOVING SEWD AT 40-45 KT ACROSS ROCK
AND HOLT COUNTIES IN NEB AT 22Z WILL GRADUALLY TURN ESEWD THROUGH
21/00Z. THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS AND SEVERE HAIL WILL PERSIST INTO
THIS EVENING AS CONVECTIVE SYSTEM MOVES INTO NERN NEB.

AT 22Z...STEEP LOW-MID LEVEL LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT EXISTS ACROSS
NERN NEB JUST SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST OF UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER ERN SD.
 COMBINED WITH AMPLE SURFACE HEATING...AN AXIS OF SBCAPE BETWEEN
500-1000 J/KG WILL PERSIST INTO THE EVENING HOURS IN ADVANCE OF
ONGOING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. NWLY DEEP-LAYER FLOW AROUND 30 KT
BECOMES MORE WNWLY ACROSS NERN NEB SOUTH OF UPPER LOW CENTER...WHICH
SHOULD RESULT IN A MORE EWD COMPONENT OF CONVECTION THROUGH THIS
EVENING. FORWARD PROPAGATION OF STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH MESOSCALE
COLD POOL WILL CONTINUE THREAT OF WIND GUSTS TO SEVERE LEVELS UNTIL
BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS LATE THIS EVENING. IN ADDITION...THREAT OF HAIL
CONTINUES WITH EMBEDDED STRONGER CORES DURING NEXT 2-3 HOURS GIVEN
STEEP LAPSE RATES AND WBZ HEIGHTS BETWEEN 6-7 KFT...PER RUC
ANALYSIS/FORECAST SOUNDINGS.

..BANACOS.. 04/20/2004

PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX...GID...LBF...

42899897 42859833 42649735 42329689 41959704 41679722
41609776 41759930 42049951 42779937



.
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wx247
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#2 Postby wx247 » Tue Apr 20, 2004 4:55 pm

eek... stay safe Brian and keep me informed. :D
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Guest

#3 Postby Guest » Tue Apr 20, 2004 7:11 pm

wx247 wrote:eek... stay safe Brian and keep me informed. :D


MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0399
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0806 PM CDT TUE APR 20 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...MO VALLEY REGION OF IA/NEB

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 96...

VALID 210106Z - 210230Z

WW SHOULD BE CONTINUED FOR ALL COUNTIES IN POTENTIAL PATH OF SEVERE
TSTMS OVER NERN NEB. SMALL COMPLEX OF SEVERE TSTMS HAS EVOLVED FROM
INITIAL TORNADIC/ANTICYCLONIC SUPERCELL...AND SHOULD MOVE SEWD 30-35
KT TOWARD PORTIONS BURT/ DOUGLAS/WASHINGTON COUNTIES
NEB...HARRISON/SHELBY/POTTAWATOMIE COUNTIES IA.
THIS ACTIVITY IS
MOVING ALONG SRN GRADIENT OF NW-SE ORIENTED SWATH OF SFC MOISTURE --
PARALLEL TO MOIST AXIS OVER NWRN IA. MODIFIED OAX RAOB INDICATES
VERY STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES OVER REGION AND CONTINUED POTENTIAL
FOR LARGE HAIL. DRY LOW LEVEL AIR JUST ABOVE SFC ALSO SUPPORTS
DAMAGING WIND
WITH THIS ACTIVITY AS IT MOVES ACROSS MO RIVER INTO
IA. WEAKENING TREND POSSIBLE IN ANOTHER 2 HOURS OR SO...ONCE INFLOW
LAYER DIABATICALLY COOLS ENOUGH TO REMOVE SFC-BASED INSTABILITY.

..EDWARDS.. 04/21/2004

PLEASE SEE http://WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...FSD...OAX...GID...

40149503 41349828 43069820 41859499


The counties in bold are part of the Omaha metro area.
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