NOAA Fire Weather Outlooks
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.
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Rob-TheStormChaser
ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
FNUS21 KWNS 160943
STORM PREDICTION CENTER...NWS/NCEP...NORMAN OK
400 AM CST SUN MAR 16 2003
DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK...REF AWIPS GRAPHIC PMWE98 KWNS
VALID 161200-171200
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SRN HIGH
PLAINS...
...SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY EWD WHILE INTENSIFYING
AND CLOSING OFF OVER THE WEST. MANY LOCATIONS OVER THE WEST WILL
SEE PRECIPITATION...ESPECIALLY HIGHER ELEVATIONS. ALONG THE
ERN/SERN PERIPHERY OF THIS SYSTEM...SFC WINDS WILL INCREASE IN
RESPONSE TO AN INCREASING SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT...MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES/WINDS. LOW RH READINGS COMBINED WITH THE STRONG WINDS WILL
PROVIDE FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TO PORTIONS OF THE SRN
HIGH PLAINS.
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA 1 - FAR SERN CO/SWRN KS...THE WRN
OK/TX PANHANDLES...FAR WRN TX AND PORTIONS OF SRN/ERN NM...
PRIMARY CONDITIONS: SUSTAINED WINDS FROM 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO
40 MPH IN HIGHER TERRAIN / MIN RH READINGS FROM 15 TO 20 PERCENT /
APPROACHING TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL
AID IN STEEPENING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES FROM SRN NM NEWD INTO SWRN
KS THROUGH THE PERIOD. MID LEVEL WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE
DAY...MOST NOTABLY OVER SRN NM AND FAR WRN TX. BY 17/00Z...10000 FT
WINDS ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM 30 TO 40 MPH OVER SRN NM/FAR WRN
TX. THE PRESENCE OF STEEP LOW TO MID LAPSE RATES OVER THIS AREA AND
STRONG MIXING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL ALLOW FOR
GOOD MOMENTUM TRANSFER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SUSTAINED WINDS FROM
20 TO 30 MPH...AND GUSTS TO 40 MPH IN THE SACRAMENTO AND GUADALUPE
MTNS. ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH A PACIFIC COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE EWD AND REACH A POSITION FROM TCC TO ELP BY 17/06Z.
BEHIND THIS FRONT...WINDS WILL SWITCH TO A WLY DIRECTION...AND RH
RECOVERY IS EXPECTED TO BE GOOD. ALONG WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION IN PORTIONS OF SCENTRAL
NM...ESPECIALLY THE SACRAMENTO MTNS. DESPITE INCREASING MID/HIGH
CLOUD COVER...MINIMUM RH READINGS FROM 15 TO 20 PERCENT ARE
EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
FARTHER NORTH/EAST THE LEE TROUGH/DRYLINE WILL EXTEND FROM AN
STRENGTHENING SFC LOW OVER NERN CO SSEWD THROUGH THE ERN TX
PANHANDLE AND INTO SWRN TX BY AFTERNOON. 8-10 MB SFC PRESSURE FALLS
AND SUBSEQUENT MID LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS ALONG THIS LEE TROUGH OVER
THE SRN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS WILL AID IN INCREASING SWLY SFC WINDS
BEHIND THE LEE TROUGH FROM ERN NM/WRN TX NWD THROUGH MUCH OF THE
OK/TX PANHANDLES AND INTO FAR SERN CO/SWRN KS. SUSTAINED WINDS FROM
20 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS OVER 30 MPH SHOULD DEVELOP BY AROUND 16/18Z
AND LAST UNTIL 17/00Z. HIGH CLOUD COVER WILL MOVE EWD INTO THE AREA
EARLY IN THE DAY WHICH WILL INHIBIT FULL LOW LEVEL MIXING/WARMING
AND STRONGER WINDS. HOWEVER...DEWPOINTS IN THE 20S COMBINED WITH
MAX TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S WILL PROVIDE FOR CRITICALLY LOW RH
READINGS FROM 15 TO 20 PERCENT. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DECREASE
AFTER 17/00Z WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING/MIXING.
..CROSBIE.. 03/16/03
FNUS21 KWNS 160943
STORM PREDICTION CENTER...NWS/NCEP...NORMAN OK
400 AM CST SUN MAR 16 2003
DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK...REF AWIPS GRAPHIC PMWE98 KWNS
VALID 161200-171200
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SRN HIGH
PLAINS...
...SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY EWD WHILE INTENSIFYING
AND CLOSING OFF OVER THE WEST. MANY LOCATIONS OVER THE WEST WILL
SEE PRECIPITATION...ESPECIALLY HIGHER ELEVATIONS. ALONG THE
ERN/SERN PERIPHERY OF THIS SYSTEM...SFC WINDS WILL INCREASE IN
RESPONSE TO AN INCREASING SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT...MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES/WINDS. LOW RH READINGS COMBINED WITH THE STRONG WINDS WILL
PROVIDE FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TO PORTIONS OF THE SRN
HIGH PLAINS.
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA 1 - FAR SERN CO/SWRN KS...THE WRN
OK/TX PANHANDLES...FAR WRN TX AND PORTIONS OF SRN/ERN NM...
PRIMARY CONDITIONS: SUSTAINED WINDS FROM 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO
40 MPH IN HIGHER TERRAIN / MIN RH READINGS FROM 15 TO 20 PERCENT /
APPROACHING TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL
AID IN STEEPENING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES FROM SRN NM NEWD INTO SWRN
KS THROUGH THE PERIOD. MID LEVEL WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE
DAY...MOST NOTABLY OVER SRN NM AND FAR WRN TX. BY 17/00Z...10000 FT
WINDS ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM 30 TO 40 MPH OVER SRN NM/FAR WRN
TX. THE PRESENCE OF STEEP LOW TO MID LAPSE RATES OVER THIS AREA AND
STRONG MIXING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL ALLOW FOR
GOOD MOMENTUM TRANSFER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SUSTAINED WINDS FROM
20 TO 30 MPH...AND GUSTS TO 40 MPH IN THE SACRAMENTO AND GUADALUPE
MTNS. ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH A PACIFIC COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE EWD AND REACH A POSITION FROM TCC TO ELP BY 17/06Z.
BEHIND THIS FRONT...WINDS WILL SWITCH TO A WLY DIRECTION...AND RH
RECOVERY IS EXPECTED TO BE GOOD. ALONG WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION IN PORTIONS OF SCENTRAL
NM...ESPECIALLY THE SACRAMENTO MTNS. DESPITE INCREASING MID/HIGH
CLOUD COVER...MINIMUM RH READINGS FROM 15 TO 20 PERCENT ARE
EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
FARTHER NORTH/EAST THE LEE TROUGH/DRYLINE WILL EXTEND FROM AN
STRENGTHENING SFC LOW OVER NERN CO SSEWD THROUGH THE ERN TX
PANHANDLE AND INTO SWRN TX BY AFTERNOON. 8-10 MB SFC PRESSURE FALLS
AND SUBSEQUENT MID LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS ALONG THIS LEE TROUGH OVER
THE SRN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS WILL AID IN INCREASING SWLY SFC WINDS
BEHIND THE LEE TROUGH FROM ERN NM/WRN TX NWD THROUGH MUCH OF THE
OK/TX PANHANDLES AND INTO FAR SERN CO/SWRN KS. SUSTAINED WINDS FROM
20 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS OVER 30 MPH SHOULD DEVELOP BY AROUND 16/18Z
AND LAST UNTIL 17/00Z. HIGH CLOUD COVER WILL MOVE EWD INTO THE AREA
EARLY IN THE DAY WHICH WILL INHIBIT FULL LOW LEVEL MIXING/WARMING
AND STRONGER WINDS. HOWEVER...DEWPOINTS IN THE 20S COMBINED WITH
MAX TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S WILL PROVIDE FOR CRITICALLY LOW RH
READINGS FROM 15 TO 20 PERCENT. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DECREASE
AFTER 17/00Z WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING/MIXING.
..CROSBIE.. 03/16/03
0 likes
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Rob-TheStormChaser
ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
FNUS22 KWNS 160944
STORM PREDICTION CENTER...NWS/NCEP...NORMAN OK
400 AM CST SUN MAR 16 2003
DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK...REF AWIPS GRAPHIC PMWI98 KWNS
VALID 171200-181200
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SRN HIGH
PLAINS...
...SYNOPSIS...
A BROAD UPPER LOW/TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE NRN ROCKIES INTO THE
SRN PLAINS WILL DIG SLOWLY SEWD THROUGH THE PERIOD...WHILE
INTENSIFYING. AREAS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION ARE EXPECTED
ON THE NRN PORTIONS OF THIS TROUGH OVER THE NRN ROCKIES AND
NRN/CENTRAL PLNS...WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED OVER THE
SRN PLAINS. BEHIND A DRYLINE EXTENDING FROM FAR SWRN KS INTO WRN
TX...LOW RH READINGS COMBINED WITH STRONG SFC WINDS WILL
PROVIDE FOR A CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THREAT OVER THE SRN HIGH
PLAINS.
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA 1 - ERN NM AND MUCH OF WRN TX -
INCLUDING THE PANHANDLE...
PRIMARY CONDITIONS: SUSTAINED WINDS FROM 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO
40 MPH / MIN RH READINGS AROUND 15 PERCENT
AS THE UPPER TROUGH INTENSIFIES AND MOVES SEWD...EXPECT THE SFC LOW
TO DO THE SAME AND MOVE FROM NERN CO INTO SWRN KS BY 18/00Z. A SFC
DRYLINE WILL MIX EWD DURING THE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS AND
EXTEND FROM THE LOW SWD INTO CENTRAL TX. WEST OF THE DRYLINE
...CONTINUED MID LEVEL COLD ADVECTION WILL AID IN MAINTAINING STEEP
LAPSE RATES. THIS WILL PROVIDE FOR FAVORABLE DEEP LOW-MID LEVEL
MIXING AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF WSWLY SFC WINDS FROM 20 TO 30 MPH
WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH OVER THE GUADALUPE MTNS BY 17/18Z. DOWNSLOPE
COMPONENT TO THE WIND FIELDS WILL AID IN MAXIMIZING LOW LEVEL
COMPRESSIONAL WARMING. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO
70S AND LOWER 80S. COMBINED WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 15-25 RANGE...
EXPECT MINIMUM RH READINGS FROM 10-15 PERCENT. SUSTAINED WINDS
SHOULD DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 20 MPH OVER LOWER ELEVATIONS AFTER
18/00Z WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...BUT POOR RH RECOVERY IS
EXPECTED AREAWIDE BEHIND THE DRYLINE. FARTHER SOUTH...MOD WINDS/LOW
RH READINGS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE BIG BEND REGION/DAVIS MTNS.
HOWEVER...RECENT PRECIPITATION SHOULD LIMIT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS IN THIS AREA.
..CROSBIE.. 03/16/03
FNUS22 KWNS 160944
STORM PREDICTION CENTER...NWS/NCEP...NORMAN OK
400 AM CST SUN MAR 16 2003
DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK...REF AWIPS GRAPHIC PMWI98 KWNS
VALID 171200-181200
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SRN HIGH
PLAINS...
...SYNOPSIS...
A BROAD UPPER LOW/TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE NRN ROCKIES INTO THE
SRN PLAINS WILL DIG SLOWLY SEWD THROUGH THE PERIOD...WHILE
INTENSIFYING. AREAS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION ARE EXPECTED
ON THE NRN PORTIONS OF THIS TROUGH OVER THE NRN ROCKIES AND
NRN/CENTRAL PLNS...WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED OVER THE
SRN PLAINS. BEHIND A DRYLINE EXTENDING FROM FAR SWRN KS INTO WRN
TX...LOW RH READINGS COMBINED WITH STRONG SFC WINDS WILL
PROVIDE FOR A CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THREAT OVER THE SRN HIGH
PLAINS.
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA 1 - ERN NM AND MUCH OF WRN TX -
INCLUDING THE PANHANDLE...
PRIMARY CONDITIONS: SUSTAINED WINDS FROM 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO
40 MPH / MIN RH READINGS AROUND 15 PERCENT
AS THE UPPER TROUGH INTENSIFIES AND MOVES SEWD...EXPECT THE SFC LOW
TO DO THE SAME AND MOVE FROM NERN CO INTO SWRN KS BY 18/00Z. A SFC
DRYLINE WILL MIX EWD DURING THE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS AND
EXTEND FROM THE LOW SWD INTO CENTRAL TX. WEST OF THE DRYLINE
...CONTINUED MID LEVEL COLD ADVECTION WILL AID IN MAINTAINING STEEP
LAPSE RATES. THIS WILL PROVIDE FOR FAVORABLE DEEP LOW-MID LEVEL
MIXING AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF WSWLY SFC WINDS FROM 20 TO 30 MPH
WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH OVER THE GUADALUPE MTNS BY 17/18Z. DOWNSLOPE
COMPONENT TO THE WIND FIELDS WILL AID IN MAXIMIZING LOW LEVEL
COMPRESSIONAL WARMING. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO
70S AND LOWER 80S. COMBINED WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 15-25 RANGE...
EXPECT MINIMUM RH READINGS FROM 10-15 PERCENT. SUSTAINED WINDS
SHOULD DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 20 MPH OVER LOWER ELEVATIONS AFTER
18/00Z WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...BUT POOR RH RECOVERY IS
EXPECTED AREAWIDE BEHIND THE DRYLINE. FARTHER SOUTH...MOD WINDS/LOW
RH READINGS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE BIG BEND REGION/DAVIS MTNS.
HOWEVER...RECENT PRECIPITATION SHOULD LIMIT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS IN THIS AREA.
..CROSBIE.. 03/16/03
0 likes
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Rob-TheStormChaser
DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK...REF AWIPS GRAPHIC PMWE98 KWNS
VALID 171200-181200
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR A PORTION OF THE SRN HIGH
PLAINS...
...SYNOPSIS...
A BROAD MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AS IT
MOVES INTO THE ROCKIES THROUGH THE PERIOD. SCT PRECIPITATION AND
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE FOUND OVER MUCH OF THE WEST IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE BROAD TROUGH. AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM... A
STRENGTHENING SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL ALLOW FOR INCREASING SFC
WINDS ACROSS THE PLAINS. LOW RH READINGS COMBINED WITH THE MOD-
STRONG WINDS OVER WRN TX AND ERN NM WILL ALLOW FOR A CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER THREAT.
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA 1 - WRN TX AND ERN NM...
PRIMARY CONDITIONS: SUSTAINED WINDS FROM 25 TO 35 MPH...WITH GUSTS
OVER 50 MPH IN THE MTNS OF SERN NM/SWRN TX / MIN RH READINGS AROUND
15 PERCENT / ISOLATED DRY THUNDERSTORMS IN NERN NM AND THE NRN
TX/OK PANHANDLES
A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS THE AREA EARLY IN
THE PERIOD. BEHIND THIS TROUGH A COMBINATION OF INCREASING MID
LEVEL FLOW/STEEPENING LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND A DEEPENING LOW
PRESSURE AREA OVER ERN CO WILL AID INCREASING SFC WINDS ACROSS
LOWER ELEVATIONS. THE DRYLINE WILL MIX EWD THROUGH THE MORNING
BEFORE EXTENDING FROM THE SFC LOW SWD INTO THE FAR ERN TX
PANHANDLE AND CENTRAL TX BY 17/20Z. BEHIND THE DRYLINE...SFC WINDS
WILL INCREASE TO BETWEEN 25 AND 35 MPH FROM THE SRN TX PANHANDLE
/ECENTRAL NM SWD INTO SWRN TX BY 17/18Z. THE STRONGEST WINDS
WILL LIKELY BE OVER THE MTNS OF SWRN/FAR WRN TX WHERE WIND GUSTS
OVER 50 MPH WILL BE LIKELY. AS TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE 70S TO
LOWER 80S.../60S IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS/...EXPECT MINIMUM RH READINGS
TO FALL TO AROUND 15 PERCENT. STEEPNESS OF LOW-MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES /NEAR DRY ADIABATIC/ ALONG WITH SECONDARY SHORTWAVE MOVING
OUT OF AZ INTO NM LATER TODAY SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NERN NM AND
ALONG THE LEE TROUGH/DRYLINE BY MID AFTERNOON. CLOUD BASE HEIGHTS
AROUND 10 KFT AGL WOULD SUGGEST THAT DRY LIGHTNING WILL BE
POSSIBLE.
VALID 171200-181200
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR A PORTION OF THE SRN HIGH
PLAINS...
...SYNOPSIS...
A BROAD MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AS IT
MOVES INTO THE ROCKIES THROUGH THE PERIOD. SCT PRECIPITATION AND
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE FOUND OVER MUCH OF THE WEST IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE BROAD TROUGH. AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM... A
STRENGTHENING SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL ALLOW FOR INCREASING SFC
WINDS ACROSS THE PLAINS. LOW RH READINGS COMBINED WITH THE MOD-
STRONG WINDS OVER WRN TX AND ERN NM WILL ALLOW FOR A CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER THREAT.
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA 1 - WRN TX AND ERN NM...
PRIMARY CONDITIONS: SUSTAINED WINDS FROM 25 TO 35 MPH...WITH GUSTS
OVER 50 MPH IN THE MTNS OF SERN NM/SWRN TX / MIN RH READINGS AROUND
15 PERCENT / ISOLATED DRY THUNDERSTORMS IN NERN NM AND THE NRN
TX/OK PANHANDLES
A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS THE AREA EARLY IN
THE PERIOD. BEHIND THIS TROUGH A COMBINATION OF INCREASING MID
LEVEL FLOW/STEEPENING LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND A DEEPENING LOW
PRESSURE AREA OVER ERN CO WILL AID INCREASING SFC WINDS ACROSS
LOWER ELEVATIONS. THE DRYLINE WILL MIX EWD THROUGH THE MORNING
BEFORE EXTENDING FROM THE SFC LOW SWD INTO THE FAR ERN TX
PANHANDLE AND CENTRAL TX BY 17/20Z. BEHIND THE DRYLINE...SFC WINDS
WILL INCREASE TO BETWEEN 25 AND 35 MPH FROM THE SRN TX PANHANDLE
/ECENTRAL NM SWD INTO SWRN TX BY 17/18Z. THE STRONGEST WINDS
WILL LIKELY BE OVER THE MTNS OF SWRN/FAR WRN TX WHERE WIND GUSTS
OVER 50 MPH WILL BE LIKELY. AS TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE 70S TO
LOWER 80S.../60S IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS/...EXPECT MINIMUM RH READINGS
TO FALL TO AROUND 15 PERCENT. STEEPNESS OF LOW-MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES /NEAR DRY ADIABATIC/ ALONG WITH SECONDARY SHORTWAVE MOVING
OUT OF AZ INTO NM LATER TODAY SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NERN NM AND
ALONG THE LEE TROUGH/DRYLINE BY MID AFTERNOON. CLOUD BASE HEIGHTS
AROUND 10 KFT AGL WOULD SUGGEST THAT DRY LIGHTNING WILL BE
POSSIBLE.
0 likes
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Rob-TheStormChaser
DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK...REF AWIPS GRAPHIC PMWI98 KWNS
VALID 181200-191200
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF WRN TX/SERN NM...
...SYNOPSIS...
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH/LOW CENTERED OVER THE SRN ROCKIES AT THE START
OF THE PERIOD WILL MOVE SLOWLY EWD INTO THE SRN PLNS BY 19/12Z.
STEEP LOW-MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ALONG WITH STRONG MID LEVEL WINDS
WILL ALLOW FOR ANOTHER WINDY DAY TO PORTIONS OF THE SRN PLNS.
BEHIND A DRYLINE...WLY WINDS WILL INCREASE EARLY IN THE PERIOD.
ALONG WITH LOW RH READINGS A CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THREAT WILL
OCCUR OVER THE AREA. FARTHER WEST...A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE
SWD ON THE WRN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LOW ACROSS THE SRN GREAT
BASIN. THIS SYSTEM WILL GENERATE SUSTAINED WINDS FROM 20 TO 30 MPH
DURING THE AFTERNOON OVER THE CO RIVER VALLEY AND ADJACENT DESERTS.
HOWEVER...RECENT RAINS WILL PRECLUDE ANY FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS OVER
THIS AREA.
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA 1 - FAR SERN NM AND ALL OF SOUTHWEST
TX...
PRIMARY CONDITIONS: SUSTAINED WINDS FROM 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS TO
50 MPH IN HIGHER TERRAIN / MIN RH READINGS FROM 15 TO 20 PERCENT
WITH THE MID LEVEL TROUGH PASSAGE DURING THE PERIOD...STRONG MID
LEVEL COLD ADVECTION WILL AID IN NEAR DRY ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES
FROM THE SFC TO 500 MB. UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES THROUGH THIS
LAYER WILL SUPPORT MOMENTUM TRANSFER OF STRONG MID LEVEL WINDS TO
THE SURFACE. THE DRYLINE IS FORECAST TO EXTEND FROM A SFC LOW OVER
THE TX PANHANDLE SEWD INTO CENTRAL TX BY 18/18Z. SURFACE WINDS WILL
LIKELY BE STRONG AT THE START OF THE PERIOD OVER THE DAVIS
/GUADALUPE MTNS. OVER LOWER ELEVATIONS SFC WINDS WILL INCREASE
DURING THE MORNING HOURS WITH SUSTAINED WLY WINDS FROM 25 TO 35 MPH
BY 18/18Z. ALTHOUGH SFC TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES
COLDER THAN DAY ONE OWING TO LOW-MID LEVEL COLD ADVECTION...STRONG
DOWNWARD VERTICAL MOTION WILL AID IN LOWERING DEWPOINTS
COMPENSATING FOR THE EXPECTED COOLER TEMPERATURES. THEREFORE MIN RH
READINGS SHOULD AGAIN BE AROUND 15 PERCENT DURING THE AFTERNOON
/EARLY EVENING. RH RECOVERY IS EXPECTED TO BE POOR TO FAIR
OVERNIGHT AS WINDS SHOULD REMAIN BETWEEN 15 AND 25 MPH OVERNIGHT.
VALID 181200-191200
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF WRN TX/SERN NM...
...SYNOPSIS...
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH/LOW CENTERED OVER THE SRN ROCKIES AT THE START
OF THE PERIOD WILL MOVE SLOWLY EWD INTO THE SRN PLNS BY 19/12Z.
STEEP LOW-MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ALONG WITH STRONG MID LEVEL WINDS
WILL ALLOW FOR ANOTHER WINDY DAY TO PORTIONS OF THE SRN PLNS.
BEHIND A DRYLINE...WLY WINDS WILL INCREASE EARLY IN THE PERIOD.
ALONG WITH LOW RH READINGS A CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THREAT WILL
OCCUR OVER THE AREA. FARTHER WEST...A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE
SWD ON THE WRN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LOW ACROSS THE SRN GREAT
BASIN. THIS SYSTEM WILL GENERATE SUSTAINED WINDS FROM 20 TO 30 MPH
DURING THE AFTERNOON OVER THE CO RIVER VALLEY AND ADJACENT DESERTS.
HOWEVER...RECENT RAINS WILL PRECLUDE ANY FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS OVER
THIS AREA.
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA 1 - FAR SERN NM AND ALL OF SOUTHWEST
TX...
PRIMARY CONDITIONS: SUSTAINED WINDS FROM 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS TO
50 MPH IN HIGHER TERRAIN / MIN RH READINGS FROM 15 TO 20 PERCENT
WITH THE MID LEVEL TROUGH PASSAGE DURING THE PERIOD...STRONG MID
LEVEL COLD ADVECTION WILL AID IN NEAR DRY ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES
FROM THE SFC TO 500 MB. UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES THROUGH THIS
LAYER WILL SUPPORT MOMENTUM TRANSFER OF STRONG MID LEVEL WINDS TO
THE SURFACE. THE DRYLINE IS FORECAST TO EXTEND FROM A SFC LOW OVER
THE TX PANHANDLE SEWD INTO CENTRAL TX BY 18/18Z. SURFACE WINDS WILL
LIKELY BE STRONG AT THE START OF THE PERIOD OVER THE DAVIS
/GUADALUPE MTNS. OVER LOWER ELEVATIONS SFC WINDS WILL INCREASE
DURING THE MORNING HOURS WITH SUSTAINED WLY WINDS FROM 25 TO 35 MPH
BY 18/18Z. ALTHOUGH SFC TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES
COLDER THAN DAY ONE OWING TO LOW-MID LEVEL COLD ADVECTION...STRONG
DOWNWARD VERTICAL MOTION WILL AID IN LOWERING DEWPOINTS
COMPENSATING FOR THE EXPECTED COOLER TEMPERATURES. THEREFORE MIN RH
READINGS SHOULD AGAIN BE AROUND 15 PERCENT DURING THE AFTERNOON
/EARLY EVENING. RH RECOVERY IS EXPECTED TO BE POOR TO FAIR
OVERNIGHT AS WINDS SHOULD REMAIN BETWEEN 15 AND 25 MPH OVERNIGHT.
0 likes
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Rob-TheStormChaser
ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
FNUS21 KWNS 180921
STORM PREDICTION CENTER...NWS/NCEP...NORMAN OK
400 AM CST TUE MAR 18 2003
DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK...REF AWIPS GRAPHIC PMWE98 KWNS
VALID 181200-191200
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHWEST TX...
...SYNOPSIS...
A NEARLY STATIONARY STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER THE
SRN ROCKIES AT 18/12Z WILL BEGIN TO EJECT SLOWLY EWD INTO THE SRN
PLAINS THROUGH THE PERIOD. ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM...A STRONG
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL ROTATE THROUGH THE SRN HIGH PLAINS EARLY THIS
MORNING. IN THE WAKE OF THIS TROUGH...STRONG WINDS AND LOW RH
READINGS WILL BE FOUND OVER PORTIONS OF FAR SERN NM AND SWRN TX.
FARTHER WEST...A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE TROUGH ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
BROAD UPPER LOW HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE GREAT BASIN AND
AID IN A STRONG N-S PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE SRN GREAT BASIN AND
LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY. HOWEVER...RECENT PRECIPITATION IN THIS AREA
WILL PRECLUDE AND CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER COND/S.
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA 1 - SOUTHWEST TX...
PRIMARY CONDITIONS: SUSTAINED WINDS FROM 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS TO
45 MPH / MIN RH READINGS FROM 15 TO 20 PERCENT
A WIDESPREAD AREA OF STRONG WINDS IS EXPECTED TODAY FROM PORTIONS
OF WRN TX/SERN NM EWD INTO MUCH OF CENTRAL TX. HOWEVER...RECENT
RAINFALL FROM THE LAST FEW DAYS INCLUDING EARLY THIS MORNING OVER
PORTIONS OF THE AREA WILL LIMIT THE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THREAT TO
PORTIONS OF SWRN TX INCLUDING THE BIG BEND AREA. WITH THE PASSAGE
OF A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH BEFORE 18/18Z...EXPECT WLY WINDS TO
INCREASE OVER THE AREA QUICKLY WITH ONSET OF DAYTIME HEATING/LOW
LEVEL MIXING. UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW BETWEEN THE SFC AND 500 MB ALONG
WITH NEARLY DRY ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES IN THIS LAYER WILL SUPPORT
STRONG WINDS OVER THE REGION TODAY. STRONG DOWNWARD VERTICAL MOTION
BEHIND THIS SHORTWAVE WILL COUNTERACT LOW/MID LEVEL COLD ADVECTION
AND ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO ONLY BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN
YESTERDAY. GIVEN PRESENCE OF EXPECTED LOW DEWPOINTS IN THE
TEENS/20S MIN RH READINGS WILL BE SUFFICIENTLY LOW FOR A CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER THREAT. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN STRONG IN HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OVERNIGHT...BUT RH RECOVERY IS ANTICIPATED TO BE FAIR TO
GOOD OVERNIGHT.
VERY COLD TEMPERATURE ALOFT NEAR THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LOW ALONG
WITH THE STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES/MID LEVEL MOISTURE ATOP A DRY
SUBCLOUD LAYER BELOW 10 KFT WILL ALLOW FOR ISOLATED MAINLY DRY
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE TX PANHANDLE.
FNUS21 KWNS 180921
STORM PREDICTION CENTER...NWS/NCEP...NORMAN OK
400 AM CST TUE MAR 18 2003
DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK...REF AWIPS GRAPHIC PMWE98 KWNS
VALID 181200-191200
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHWEST TX...
...SYNOPSIS...
A NEARLY STATIONARY STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER THE
SRN ROCKIES AT 18/12Z WILL BEGIN TO EJECT SLOWLY EWD INTO THE SRN
PLAINS THROUGH THE PERIOD. ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM...A STRONG
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL ROTATE THROUGH THE SRN HIGH PLAINS EARLY THIS
MORNING. IN THE WAKE OF THIS TROUGH...STRONG WINDS AND LOW RH
READINGS WILL BE FOUND OVER PORTIONS OF FAR SERN NM AND SWRN TX.
FARTHER WEST...A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE TROUGH ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
BROAD UPPER LOW HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE GREAT BASIN AND
AID IN A STRONG N-S PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE SRN GREAT BASIN AND
LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY. HOWEVER...RECENT PRECIPITATION IN THIS AREA
WILL PRECLUDE AND CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER COND/S.
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA 1 - SOUTHWEST TX...
PRIMARY CONDITIONS: SUSTAINED WINDS FROM 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS TO
45 MPH / MIN RH READINGS FROM 15 TO 20 PERCENT
A WIDESPREAD AREA OF STRONG WINDS IS EXPECTED TODAY FROM PORTIONS
OF WRN TX/SERN NM EWD INTO MUCH OF CENTRAL TX. HOWEVER...RECENT
RAINFALL FROM THE LAST FEW DAYS INCLUDING EARLY THIS MORNING OVER
PORTIONS OF THE AREA WILL LIMIT THE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THREAT TO
PORTIONS OF SWRN TX INCLUDING THE BIG BEND AREA. WITH THE PASSAGE
OF A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH BEFORE 18/18Z...EXPECT WLY WINDS TO
INCREASE OVER THE AREA QUICKLY WITH ONSET OF DAYTIME HEATING/LOW
LEVEL MIXING. UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW BETWEEN THE SFC AND 500 MB ALONG
WITH NEARLY DRY ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES IN THIS LAYER WILL SUPPORT
STRONG WINDS OVER THE REGION TODAY. STRONG DOWNWARD VERTICAL MOTION
BEHIND THIS SHORTWAVE WILL COUNTERACT LOW/MID LEVEL COLD ADVECTION
AND ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO ONLY BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN
YESTERDAY. GIVEN PRESENCE OF EXPECTED LOW DEWPOINTS IN THE
TEENS/20S MIN RH READINGS WILL BE SUFFICIENTLY LOW FOR A CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER THREAT. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN STRONG IN HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OVERNIGHT...BUT RH RECOVERY IS ANTICIPATED TO BE FAIR TO
GOOD OVERNIGHT.
VERY COLD TEMPERATURE ALOFT NEAR THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LOW ALONG
WITH THE STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES/MID LEVEL MOISTURE ATOP A DRY
SUBCLOUD LAYER BELOW 10 KFT WILL ALLOW FOR ISOLATED MAINLY DRY
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE TX PANHANDLE.
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