"FIRST SNOW COMIN'!"

[azsnowman]

Could this be a sign of things to come? Let's HOPE so.....the first snow of the season is in the forecast for this coming Tues night into Weds morning

NEXT SERIES OF STORM SYSTEMS WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH BRINGING MUCH COLDER AIR AND A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. CURRENT MODEL SOLUTIONS BRING THE SNOW LEVELS DOWN QUICKLY TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AND COULD SEE A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW AS LOW AS 7000 FEET BY EARLY WEDNESDAY. PCPN AMOUNTS WILL PROBABLY REMAIN ON THE LIGHT SIDE AND WITH WARM GROUND TEMPS ACCUMULATIONS ARE UNLIKELY. THIS ALL COMES WITH A CAVEAT...THE MODELS HAVE BEEN HAVING A DIFFICULT TIME HANDLING THESE FEATURES FOR THE PAST WEEK AND THE SYSTEM MAY EVOLVE QUITE DIFFERENTLY FROM HOW IT IS CURRENTLY DEPICTED. IF...HOWEVER...IT IS RIGHT...THIS COULD BE THE FIRST SNOW FOR SOME OF THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS CITIES IN NRN AZ. DB

Dennis

[Stephanie]

KEWL!!!!

I hope this is a sign of good things to come this winter!

I know that the monsoon has been over, but it seems like there's been a decent amount of rain towards the SW, especially in CO & NM and towards your area Dennis. Has it been better than normal or am I just imagining things?

[Aslkahuna]

For AZ you are imagining things-rainfall has been largely absent from the state since late September and is likely to remain so down in my corner for the forseeable future.

Steve

[weatherlover427]

The NWS out my way (San Diego) is predicting a decent rain (1/4" to 1/2" with mountain foothills possibly seeing as much as 1 inch tomorrow night and Sunday morning along with the chance of some thunderstorms. This comes on the heels of some areas receiving almost 1/4" in the event on early Tuesday morning.

There is also another front projected to come in around Monday night bringing another chance of some rain. Looks like things may finally get cranking for the rainy season here in a day or two.

[Stephanie]

For AZ you are imagining things-rainfall has been largely absent from the state since late September and is likely to remain so down in my corner for the forseeable future.

Steve

I figured you'd answer this one!

I wasn't sure if the moisture was that far west.

[azsnowman]

Now Steve, do I sense a tad bit of *sarcasim* in your voice? LOL! Just kidding.....ya know, actually, we've had some DECENT rains over the past 3 weeks, with totals of 3.41"

This is this evenings latest AFD:

.DISCUSSION...NORTHERN ARIZONA CURRENTLY UNDER A BUILDING RIDGE THAT STRETCHES FROM THE WEST COAST INTO NORTHERN MEXICO. THE CLOSED UPPER LOW OFF THE COAST OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL CAUSE SOME INCREASING CIRRUS OVER OUR SOUTHWESTERN CWA THIS EVENING...SPREADING ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. OTHERWISE...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED SATURDAY WITH INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS. BY SUNDAY...MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT THAT THE CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL OPEN UP AND MOVE INTO NORTHERN ARIZONA. THIS WILL RESULT IN BREEZY CONDITIONS...MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES AND A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. THE UPPER LOW MOVES EAST IN RESPONSE TO A SIGNIFICANT LONGWAVE TROUGH THAT IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN U.S. LATE IN THE WEEKEND THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES AND A CHANCE OF RAIN WILL AFFECT THE AREA MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH IMPROVING WEATHER LATE IN THE WEEK. 06Z AND 12Z GFS MODEL RUNS SHOW THE BEST PRECIP CHANCES MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES MAY ALSO BE COLD ENOUGH FOR RAIN TO CHANGE TO SNOW AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. SNOW LEVELS MAY FALL AS LOW AS 6500 FEET DURING THIS PERIOD. SNOW LEVELS AND PRECIP AMOUNTS ARE STILL QUITE UNCERTAIN AS THE EVENT IS STILL OVER 72 HOURS AWAY...SO STAY TUNED.

[weatherlover427]

I don't know where this low that is affecting us is going after it moves through here; but it sure is a chilly rain. Currently 62° with heavy rain reported at my local reporting station. Already over 1/3" reported here so far.

[azsnowman]

Still on track with the snow here's the latest AFD:

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
FXUS65 KFGZ 171039 AFDFGZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF 330 AM MST SUN OCT 17 2004 .SYNOPSIS...A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...WITH THE STRONGEST SYSTEM ARRIVING WEDNESDAY. THE FIRST SYSTEMS WILL BE WEAK AND MAINLY TO THE NORTH....BRINGING PROGRESSIVELY COOLER AIR TO THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS. BY TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...A MUCH STRONGER STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING COLD TEMPERATURES AND A GOOD CHANCE FOR RAIN AND HIGH ELEVATION SNOW TO MUCH OF NORTHERN ARIZONA. THIS STORM WILL EXIT THE AREA LATE THURSDAY...WITH SOME WARMING AND DRIER CONDITIONS FOR THE END OF THIS WEEK...AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND. && .DISCUSSION...TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST CAN BE SEEN ON 0930Z WATER VAPOR, THIS WILL BE THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL WEATHER DISTURBANCES THAT WILL BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES, WINDY CONDITIONS AND INCREASING CHC`S OF RAIN AND THEN HIGHER ELEVATION SNOW BY MID-WEEK.


Dennis

[azsnowman]

We've had some pretty hellacious winds, thunder, lightning already today and CHECK out THIS HWO

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
700 AM MST SUN OCT 17 2004

AZZ004>018-037>040-171957-
BLACK MESA AREA-CHINLE VALLEY-CHUSKA MOUNTAINS AND DEFIANCE PLATEAU-
COCONINO PLATEAU-EASTERN MOGOLLON RIM-GRAND CANYON COUNTRY-
KAIBAB PLATEAU-LITTLE COLORADO RIVER IN APACHE COUNTY-
LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN COCONINO COUNTY-
LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN NAVAJO COUNTY-
MARBLE CANYON AND GLEN CANYON-NORTHEAST PLATEAUS AND MESAS-
NORTHEAST PLATEAUS AND MESAS - SOUTH OF HWY 264-NORTHERN GILA-
OAK CREEK AND SYCAMORE CANYONS-
WESTERN MOGOLLON RIM INCLUDING FLAGSTAFF-WHITE MOUNTAINS-
YAVAPAI COUNTY MOUNTAINS-YAVAPAI COUNTY VALLEYS AND BASINS-
700 AM MST SUN OCT 17 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR APACHE...COCONINO...NORTHERN
GILA...NAVAJO...AND YAVAPAI COUNTIES IN NORTHERN ARIZONA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY

A WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BRING WINDY CONDITIONS TO NORTHERN ARIZONA
TODAY. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE OVER THE LITTLE COLORADO RIVER
VALLEY...THE NORTHEAST PLATEAU SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 264. ..AND THE CHINLE
VALLEY WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS FROM 20 TO 30 MPH AND GUSTS NEAR 40 MPH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEK...WITH THE BIGGEST CHANGE
COMING BY MID WEEK. A STRONG STORM SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS
NORTHERN ARIZONA WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING MUCH
COLDER TEMPERATURES...WIDE SPREAD RAIN AND DROPPING SNOW LEVELS TO
AROUND 6500 FEET...AND STRONG WINDS.

[therock1811]

Took a step closer to winter here yesterday with a little bit of sleet! Still no snow.

[Aslkahuna]

Just gusty winds down here-no rain and not much cloud cover. The rain up you way never made it down here and I have major doubts about the system due in this week. If you read my homepage you also note that I am not optimistic about the Winter either.

Steve

[Wnghs2007]

Sweat for you!


I cant wait till we get some snow this year.

[azsnowman]

That sux Steve, I received .61" of rain yesterday afternoon with "sleet" mixed in, reports of heavy snow at Sunrise Park Resort!

THE HEAVIEST PRECIP WILL LIKELY FALL ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND THEN AS THE FRONT PASSES SNOW LEVELS WILL BEGIN TO DROP RAPIDLY...HOWEVER PRECIP INTENSITY ARE EXPECTED TO BE DECREASING BEHIND THE FRONT...DUE TO THE ADVECTION OF DRIER AIR. THERE IS A STRONG LIKELIHOOD THAT SOME AREAS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL SEE A SHORT BURST OF SNOW WITH SOME ACCUMULATION ABOVE 6500 FEET. THERE IS STILL ROOM FOR VARIANCES TO COME INTO PLAY THAT COULD CHANGE THE AMOUNT OF SNOW THAT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WILL RECEIVE.

Dennis