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CaptinCrunch
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#61 Postby CaptinCrunch » Tue Nov 02, 2004 3:48 pm

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
230 PM CST TUE NOV 2 2004


.SHORT TERM...
UPPER LOW CENTERED BETWEEN MIDLAND AND SWEETWATER AS OF 20Z OR 2
PM...WITH BULK OF RAIN OCCURRING WEST OF I-35. THIS FEATURE SHOULD
SLOWLY MOVE E/NEWD INTO ERN OK BY 00Z THURS...AS KICKER SYSTEM NOW
ARRIVING ACROSS PAC NW STATES HELPS NUDGE THIS SYSTEM ALONG TO THE
ENE. MEANWHILE...COLD FRONT TO CONTINUE TO PUSH OFF THE TX UPPER
COAST TONIGHT...AS SFC LOW MOVES INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY. AS A
RESULT...EXPECT A COOL...BREEZY...WET FCST FOR A MAJORITY OF N TX
THROUGH MID MORNING WED...ESPECIALLY AREAS NORTH OF A GOLDTHWAITE
-WACO-ATHENS LINE. MOST AREAS SHOULD SEE 1/10-1/3 OF AN INCH WHEN
ALL IS SAID AND DONE...BUT ANY EMBEDDED CONVECTION AS NOTED BY
CURRENT LDS DATA BETWEEN WICHITA FALLS/ABILENE COULD RESULT IN ISOLD
=> 1/2 INCH TOTALS. WITH THIS IN MIND...WILL BE ADDING ISOLD THUNDER
NW OF A CISCO-LAKE BRIDGEPORT-MUENSTER/GAINESVILLE LINE...CLOSER TO
MID LVL COLD POOL/STEEPER MID LVL LAPSE RATES.

LINGERING SPRINKLES OR PATCHY LIGHT RAIN EXPECTED ON WED AFTN AS
UPPER LOW PULLS AWAY. HOWEVER...H85 THERMAL TROUGH WILL LINGER
ACROSS N TX AND WITH CLOUDS...WET SOILS AND CONTINUED NLY WINDS
AROUND 10 MPH...EXPECT A COOL DAY WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE
50S. WINDS DIMINISH WED NIGHT AS SKIES PROGRESSIVELY CLEAR OUT IN
WAKE OF UPPER LOW AND SFC HIGH SETTLING IN. LOOK FOR FAIRLY CHILLY
CONDITIONS BY SUNRISE THURS MORNING. AMPLE SUNSHINE AND DEPARTURE OF
H85 THERMAL TROUGH THURS TO RESULT IN A WARM UP BACK INTO THE
60S.

&&

.LONG TERM...
UPPER LOW IS HISTORY BY FRIDAY AS IT GETS PICKED UP BY POLAR WLYS
AND RAPIDLY EJECTS NEWD INTO GT LAKES/SE CANADA. MEANWHILE...CURRENT
PAC NW SYSTEM CUTS OFF OVER CA/AZ THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. RESULTING
UPPER RIDGE AND WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER N TX SHOULD RESULT IN
COOL NIGHTTIME TEMPS...BUT PLEASANT AFTN TEMPS WITH A MODIFICATION
INTO THE LOW-MID 70S UNDER PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. CA/AZ SYSTEM WILL
BREAK DOWN THE UPPER RIDGE AND AFFECT THE SRN PLAINS LATE TUES/WED
...THUS HAVE ADDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THAT PD NEXT WEEK.
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