Hammered and Training?

[Cookiely]

I know what hammered is but what is training?
000
FXUS62 KTBW 151940
AFDTBW

WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
240 PM EST TUE MAR 15 2005

...WINDY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH POSSIBLE SEVERE STORMS LATE...

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT - THU)...PLENTY OF WEATHER TO TALK ABOUT RIGHT
THROUGH THE PERIOD. FOR THE IDES OF MARCH THROUGH ST. PATRICK'S DAY
THE ACTIVE PATTERN WILL BEAR FRUIT. SOME GOOD (WIDESPREAD TROPICAL
RAINS) AND NOT SO GOOD (WINDS...POSSIBLE SEVERE STORMS...AND RIVER
FLOODS).

FOR TONIGHT...THE MAIN QUESTION IS HOW MUCH ACTION WILL THE NATURE
COAST SEE TONIGHT? MODELS GENERALLY AGREE THAT AN EVENING SHOT OF
SHOWERS...PERHAPS AN ELEVATED THUNDERSTORM...MAY SKIRT THROUGH AREAS
FROM HERNANDO NORTH. LATER TONIGHT...WHAT'S LEFT OF THE PSEUDO-
BOUNDARY WILL SWEEP NORTHWARD INTO GEORGIA. WITH THAT...THE SFC
WINDS WILL PICK UP TO AROUND 10 MPH (15 TOWARD THE COAST) WHICH
SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY FOG BUT KEEP PLENTY OF STRATUS AROUND. AS FOR
LATE TONIGHT ACROSS THE NATURE COAST...LEVY COUNTY MAY SQUEEZE OUT
MORE ACTIVITY. SHOULD THAT HAPPEN...WE'LL HAVE TO MONITOR CLOSELY
FOR ROTATING STORMS AS AREA WILL HAVE VERY FAVORABLE HELICITY.

TWO HAZARDS TO WATCH FOR WEDNESDAY. SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL
REMAIN MAINLY N OF TAMPA BAY DURING THE AFTERNOON...CLOSER TO THE
DEEPER MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS. FARTHER SOUTH...THE PROBLEM WILL BE
GUSTY WINDS. EVENT SHOULD STAY JUST BELOW ADVISORY (SUSTAINED 31
MPH) CRITERIA) BUT GUSTS INTO THE 30S POSSIBLE...AND AREA LAKES
WILL BE ROUGH GENERALLY E AND SE OF TAMPA BAY. LAKE WIND ADVISORY
MIGHT BE THE BEST CALL...AND WILL HAVE WINDY IN THE TEXT.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT COULD INCLUDE BOTH SEVERE WEATHER AND TORRENTIAL
RAINS. POTENTIAL FOR EARLY EVENING EVENING SQUALL LINE...A SOMEWHAT
FAVORED TIME OF DAY...IS HIGH FOR BOTH ETA/GFS...WITH PRIMARY THREAT
AT THAT TIME DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS AS PROFILES BECOME MORE
UNIDIRECTIONAL. ONE POSSIBLE LIMITING FACTOR IS A POSSIBLE
STABLE LAYER IN THE MID LEVELS...BUT LOW LEVELS WON'T HAVE ANY
PROBLEM DESTABILIZING OVER CENTRAL/SW FLORIDA.

SEE STORM PREDICTION CENTER OUTLOOKS FOR MORE DETAILS.

AS FOR TORRENTIAL RAINS...SOMEONE IS GOING TO GET "HAMMERED" BY
CONVECTIVE BANDS AND PERHAPS TRAINING. DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL
BE IN PLACE...WITH GFS CARRYING NEARLY 2 INCHES PCP WATER IN ITS
SOUNDINGS THROUGH THE NIGHT. NOT GOOD CONSIDERING THE IMPRESSIVE
SYNOPTIC SITUATION. WITH TROUGH SLOWING OVER THE AREA (AWAITING
STRONGER UPSTREAM KICKER) EXPECT TO SEE SOME DEGREE OF FLOODING.
RIVER FLOODING LATE IN THE EVENT (THURS) AND OVER THE WEEKEND A
PRETTY GOOD BET AS WELL. FOR THIS REASON...WILL ISSUE A HYDRO
OUTLOOK AND TRY TO FINE TUNE AREA FOR POTENTIAL FLOOD WATCH
ISSUANCE BY EARLY WED MORNING.

THURSDAY STILL LOOKS WET...WITH A GRADUAL TAPERING OFF FROM NORTH
TO SOUTH. OVERALL...HAVE USED HPC QPF GRIDS FOR A GENERAL 2 TO 4
INCHES AREA WIDE...MORE TO THE N WITH INITIAL SQUALL LINE AND AGAIN
TO THE S ON THURSDAY IN REINFORCING ENERGY. STILL...FULLY EXPECT
SEVERAL LOCATIONS TO EXCEED 5 INCHES...PERHAPS 10 INCHES IN A FEW
SPOTS...BEFORE ALL IS SAID AND DONE.


.LONG TERM (THURS NIGHT - TUE)...LOOKS LIKE WE'LL FINALLY SEE A
PATTERN CHANGE AS EAST COAST TROUGH MOVES A BIT OFFSHORE AND ALLOWS
MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO BUILD OVER THE EASTERN GULF. THIS SHOULD KEEP MOST
OF THE JET DYNAMICS TO OUR NORTH AND ALLOW AT LEAST THIS PART OF THE
SUNSHINE STATE TO LIVE UP TO ITS NAME.

FOR THE SPECIFICS...DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
WILL TAKE LINGERING RAINS OUT TO SEA ALONG WITH IT ON THURSDAY NIGHT
AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE GULF. THERE ARE MINOR DIFFERENCES
HERE BETWEEN THE GFS AND ETA...BUT BOTH SHOW A RIDGE EXTENDING FROM
NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE GULF ON FRIDAY. THIS SHOULD
PROVIDE US WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND CONTINUED SOMEWHAT BELOW
NORMAL TEMPS IN NORTH OR NORTHWESTERLY FLOW.

COOL HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES DIRECTLY IN OVER THE EASTERN
GULF/FLORIDA PENINSULA ON SATURDAY AND MOVES INTO THE ATLANTIC ON
SUNDAY. AT THIS TIME THE WEEKEND LOOKS QUITE NICE...WITH A GRADUAL
WARMING TREND AS WELL WITH RISING MID LEVEL HEIGHTS. WE MAY EVEN SEE
A FEW LOCATIONS NEAR 80 DEGREES ON SUNDAY ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES.

500 MB HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO RISE ON MONDAY AS 12Z GFS RIGHTLY
ABANDONS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT THAT THE
06Z RUN DEPICTED. THIS IS NOW MORE IN LINE WITH THE 06Z DGEX IN
CONSOLIDATING PRECIPITATION ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOCATED NORTH
OF THE GULF COAST. IN FACT...I DON'T THINK I'VE SEEN THIS KIND OF
AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE DGEX AND THE GFS THIS FAR OUT IN THE FORECAST
CYCLE. I HAVE DECREASED CLOUD AMOUNTS SOME...AND LOWERED POPS FOR
THE SOUTHERN TWO THIRDS OF OUR FORECAST AREA WITH JUST SILENT POPS
THERE. WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND CONTINUED MID-LEVEL RIDGING...I
RAISED TEMPS SEVERAL DEGREES TO BE CLOSER TO 00Z MEX ENSEMBLE
MEANS...OR RIGHT AROUND 80 DEGREES MOST PLACES.

TUESDAY WE'LL HAVE TO WATCH A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY SINKING SOUTH
THROUGH THE NORTHEAST GULF WHILE MOST OF THE ASSOCIATED JET ENERGY
SLIDES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW 20 POPS NORTHERN
ZONES CLOSEST TO FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND SILENT 10 POPS ELSEWHERE.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN WARM...WITH TEMPS WITHIN 2 DEGREES OF 80
FOR ALL BUT IMMEDIATE COASTAL AREAS WHERE GULF BREEZES WILL PROVIDE
MID-DAY RELIEF.

FOR WHAT ITS WORTH...THE OPERATIONAL 00Z MEX GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES
ARE A COUPLE OF DEGREES HIGHER FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY THAN I AM
CURRENTLY DEPICTING.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW FLAG CRITERIA THROUGH
TONIGHT THEN INCREASE AS SYSTEM MOVES IN FROM THE WEST ON WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY. SHOULD BE A PERIOD OF AT LEAST CAUTION...PERHAPS
ADVISORY...WINDS SOMETIME BETWEEN DURING WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...WILL HOIST CAUTION TONIGHT AS WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO CRANK
TOWARD DAYBREAK. WILL WORD IT AS "LATE". SCA HEADLINE WILL ALSO BE
ADDED FOR SECOND PERIOD GIVEN EXPECTED 20 TO 25 KT WITH NEAR GALE
FORCE GUSTS...ESPECIALLY CLOSE TO THE COAST. WINDS SHOULD GRADUALLY
DROP OFF WED EVENING AND REMAIN DOWN AS TROUGH AXIS SAGS ACROSS AREA
INTO THURSDAY WELL AFTER MAIN LOW EXITS. HOWEVER...TROUGH LOOKING A
BIT STRONGER PUSHING THE DEEP MOISTURE OUT AND MAY NEED CAUTION
THURS NIGHT/FRI IN NW FLOW BEFORE NICE CONDITIONS FINALLY ARRIVE FOR
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...ONLY CONCERN IS LAVDAS DISPERSION INDEX WED AFTN...
WHERE 20 FT WINDS WILL EXCEED 20 MPH AND TRANSPORT WINDS AT LEAST 30
MPH IN MOST AREAS...ESPECIALLY CENTRAL AND S. VALUES WELL OVER 75
SEEM REALISTIC...BUT AT LEAST RH WILL BE WELL ABOVE CRITERIA (50
PERCENT AND HIGHER). MAY HAVE TO WATCH FOR LOW RH LATER FRI/SAT...
BELIEVE IT OR NOT. AT LEAST THE FUELS WILL START OFF WET BY THEN.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 67 78 68 68 / 20 70 90 90
FMY 66 83 70 69 / 00 40 90 90
GIF 66 83 68 68 / 20 70 90 90
SRQ 66 79 69 69 / 20 40 90 90
BKV 64 78 65 66 / 20 70 90 70

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION BONITA BEACH TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 60
OUT 60NM...INCLUDING TAMPA BAY.


&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BSG
LONG TERM....EJ

[Ed1]

Training: This is many times the cause of high rainfall amounts and flash flooding. Examples: 1). A line of thunderstorms aligned from west to east, moving east. 2). A line of thunderstorms aligned from southwest to northeast, moving northeast. The storms continuously move over the same area, unlike a north to south line of storms, moving east, which pass over an area quickly.


Source -
http://www.wtkr.com/Global/story.asp?S=148626

[jeff]

As stated by Ed1, training is the repeated movement of thunderstroms over the same region. It comes from the common knowledge of boxcars moving along a railroad track. In the atmosphere the boxcars are thunderstorm cells.

Training is most common when the propagation of thunderstorm cells is 180 degrees opposite of the mean storm motion. That is if storms are backbuilding SW (Vprop) and the mean cell motion (Vmean) is NE, then storms will track along the same line. As long as storms continue to develop to the SW of a particular location heavy rains will continue. This can happen from any direction as long as the steering and movement are correct to keep storms anchored in one location. It is also most common in deep moist envirnoments where outflow from downdrafts is limited allowing a near continuous supply of low level inflow and moisture into developing convection.

Training is most common along slow moving or stalled outflow boundaries or weak fronts, seabreeze boundaries, and within the feeder rainbands of tropical cyclones. Mesoscale processes during the spring, summer, and fall tend to support numerous training episodes with extreme amounts of rainfall.

The result of training is excessive rainfall over an extended period of time which usually leads to rapid flash flooding, especially over urban areas. Rainfall totals can be 2-4 times higher in areas of training compared to areas where training did not occur. Training events have led to some of the worst flood events in TX (Houston Oct 02, C TX OCT 98, Dallas May 95) and US history (Boulder CO flash flood, St Louis urban flash flood, Grand Rapids SD flood ( Do not remember the dates of these events).

JL

[Cookiely]

Thank you both for your help.

[Aquawind]

I think jeff ment the Rapid City, South Dakota flood of 1972. There was alot of orographic influence as well. 238 people killed..2-6 inches per hour

http://www.crh.noaa.gov/unr/iwe/1972/

Paul

[jeff]

I think jeff ment the Rapid City, South Dakota flood of 1972. There was alot of orographic influence as well. 238 people killed..2-6 inches per hour

http://www.crh.noaa.gov/unr/iwe/1972/

Paul

Yep, that is what I meant, and yes orography did play an important role. It was probably not the best example to use. I cannot think of any other ones off the top of my head. Such events are usually localized and do not make much national news except when the death toll is high or lots of damage is reported. However they are very frequest from the Rockies to the E coast