Next Chance of Severe Storms In Oklahoma: Tomorrow Evening

[Nalora]

Well, we got a nice two day break from the storms, and now it looks like this next system is revving up a tad. Had hoped last week it would be just a couple day soaking rain event (something we need desperately), but another Low combined with a dry line setting up makes it look like it may get us... (this according to my fav. local meteorologist David Payne on Channel 4 weather)

BUT, This morning he did not mention the Jet Stream, and I have not seen it on TWC, how is the flow of moisture from the gulf? This cold front pushed all that soupy stuff away from us, so how will our dew points get up there in ONE DAY to produce storms tomorrow night?

Any answers from you storm gurus?

Nalora

[Arizwx]

Well, we got a nice two day break from the storms, and now it looks like this next system is revving up a tad. Had hoped last week it would be just a couple day soaking rain event (something we need desperately), but another Low combined with a dry line setting up makes it look like it may get us... (this according to my fav. local meteorologist David Payne on Channel 4 weather)

BUT, This morning he did not mention the Jet Stream, and I have not seen it on TWC, how is the flow of moisture from the gulf? This cold front pushed all that soupy stuff away from us, so how will our dew points get up there in ONE DAY to produce storms tomorrow night?

Any answers from you storm gurus?

Nalora

"It's Four Twenty Nine in the AM,my name is Lionel Arizwx...and you are watching 'Perspectives'.Our Guest this AM is 'Nalora' from Oklahoma"!
But seriously folks..HI Nalora!!!Long time no 'see'.Nice to hear from you again.I remember you well...I believe you used to post up at my old site..'Sev Wx' and TWC.Been awhile.Great to have you back..
Okay..now as I recall,you are quite good at this.a WxBB Veteran,and I remember some of your posts were quite informative.
Your question is a good one..and has a simple yet complex answer,given the recent 'Wx du Extreme' as of late.
Remember your conditions over the past week or so,humid,RA+,twisters,Hi Dewpoints over 60F,instability aloft...thickness values,helicity,J/jk CAPE ,TX dry lines,etc...It's been 'Mr. Toads' Wild Ride' for sure.Remember too,you have latent moisture in the mid levels of the atmosphere still and residual GROUND moisture.Add the Zonal Flow from San Francisco,the downsloping Rocky winds and a Disturbance inbound with a 'bump' or two in the road..Mixing down of the moisture..and a confluence plus ample GOMEX bathtub sfc SSTs of 27C(81F),the dry slot N of the Troppy PAC NINO STJ just to your south,an inbound ULL,and you have...Instabilty.
Let's save some time..time is money.Cruise down to my Thread w/re to the Mex MCC..there you will find several Hyperlinks that explain in detail what is happening.The feature you might 'zone' in on...is the GOES IR Enh Ch 1/2/3&4.The dry slot and Jet stream are very visable..as is the disturbance off the Cali Coast going Zonal toward the Rocky Mtns,N of the STJ..which is way way south now.
I trust this is of assistance to you!Nice to see you again..

'This is Lionel Arizwx..it's 444 in the AM..and you have been watching 'Perspectives',with our Guest 'Nalora' from Oklahoma..Be sure to Tune in Tomorrow at 4 in the AM for ..Perspectives'! :o

[Nalora]

Yes, I remember you very well from your other board. I am one of those crazy people who love to watch the weather, and learn stuff. Most of my knowledge is just stuff you pick up when you live in Oklahoma (most true Okies are weather freaks, since your life depends on it.) Folks are generally surprised that we don't have a lot of deaths in our storms, but that is because we have great meteorologists with fantastic state of the art equipment and we are taught from the time we are knee high to a grasshopper what "Take your tornado precautions now!" means. After the May 3rd 1999 F5 (which will mark time in Oklahoma forevermore), We bought a brand new siren system, which was put to good use this time around. Our old sirens were seriously antiquated, and believe it or not there were only 44 sirens for a city the size of Oklahoma City. We now have 177 sirens, and everyone said they heard them EVEN INSIDE THE HOUSE this time.

Anyway I digress...you know that I watch the local weather religiously, because I am an avid gardener, and besides, I kind of like watching a big old supercell build 40 miles down the pike from me from my backyard (ahhhhhhhh the joys of the plains). So what they are saying is this:

The cold front that passed to set all this in motion and has given us two days of glorious weather (combined with an extremely cantankerous dry line that just did not want to leave central Oklahoma, hence the very rare two tornadoes in a row event) That cold front is being backed up from the gulf, and the stream of moisture that is generally flowing over Oklahoma this time of year will return and there is another dry line setting up in New Mexico. This will give us a good chance of severe storms tomorrow evening and into Wednesday.

Now what I have observed on the ground (from being out all day in my garden) is that the day was cool and dry, and although there was some heating in the afternoon up to 80, it was a dry heat and bearable. But about an hour ago the winds picked up out of the south, and I am seeing those old familiar clouds of moisture flowing overhead in the same pattern again.

That is what is happening now, as I see it. (in a very non-tech way)

Nalora

[Stormsfury]

Tomorrow for that region ... right now, I see more of a large hail and wind damage threat ... a strong cap should be in place for most of the day ...

There will likely be a isolated tornado or two ... but the forecasted soundings support initially higher based thunderstorms with large hail and damaging winds the primary threat. The same goes for Wednesday as well but a little deeper moisture ... the setup looks like of MCS and MCC development with the potential for a larger scale wind damage event with large hail as well ... maybe a derecho.