Great Plains, Midwest, & Deep South Storm Season 2021
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ElectricStorm
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Re: Great Plains, Midwest, & Deep South Storm Season 2021
Also just remembered that the new severe warning system starts Wednesday. I wonder if they'll start it if there's an ongoing event?
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Iceresistance
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Re: Great Plains, Midwest, & Deep South Storm Season 2021
Weather Dude wrote:Also just remembered that the new severe warning system starts Wednesday. I wonder if they'll start it if there's an ongoing event?
The GFS model was supposed to be upgraded in on the first High Risk day in March, but they pushed it back because of Critical Weather Day (The High Risk Day), they may have to push it back until the timing is right, or do it sooner . . .
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
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Iceresistance
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Re: Great Plains, Midwest, & Deep South Storm Season 2021
Model Uncertainty is higher than usual again, just like Last Friday . . .
Since the MJO is now in Phase 8 & the storm system timing on when it gets here has increased the Model Uncertainty again . . .
When I saw last week that the Euro model was showing the craziness on the SPC, I knew that the chances of one REALLY happening highly depends on the storm system & is unlikely right now since it slowed down . . .
Even though it might speed up again!
Since the MJO is now in Phase 8 & the storm system timing on when it gets here has increased the Model Uncertainty again . . .
When I saw last week that the Euro model was showing the craziness on the SPC, I knew that the chances of one REALLY happening highly depends on the storm system & is unlikely right now since it slowed down . . .
Even though it might speed up again!
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
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ElectricStorm
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Re: Great Plains, Midwest, & Deep South Storm Season 2021
New Day 2 outlook mentions a possible upgrade to enhanced tomorrow for NW TX/SW OK
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Boomer Sooner!
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Iceresistance
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- Location: Tecumseh, OK/Norman, OK
Re: Great Plains, Midwest, & Deep South Storm Season 2021
Day 2 Outlook updated
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
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cheezyWXguy
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Re: Great Plains, Midwest, & Deep South Storm Season 2021
Weather Dude wrote:New Day 2 outlook mentions a possible upgrade to enhanced tomorrow for NW TX/SW OK
18z HRRR would suggest a need for an eastward expansion of the slight risk tomorrow
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Iceresistance
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- Location: Tecumseh, OK/Norman, OK
Re: Great Plains, Midwest, & Deep South Storm Season 2021
Double Trouble Slight Risks!
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
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InfernoFlameCat
- Category 5
- Posts: 1966
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- Joined: Mon Dec 14, 2020 10:52 am
- Location: Buford, GA
Re: Great Plains, Midwest, & Deep South Storm Season 2021
April officially a dud
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I am by no means a professional. DO NOT look at my forecasts for official information or make decisions based on what I post.
Goal: to become a registered expert over tropical and subtropical cyclones.
Goal: to become a registered expert over tropical and subtropical cyclones.
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InfernoFlameCat
- Category 5
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- Location: Buford, GA
Re: Great Plains, Midwest, & Deep South Storm Season 2021
InfernoFlameCat wrote:April officially a dud
thats a good thing though actually.
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I am by no means a professional. DO NOT look at my forecasts for official information or make decisions based on what I post.
Goal: to become a registered expert over tropical and subtropical cyclones.
Goal: to become a registered expert over tropical and subtropical cyclones.
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Iceresistance
- Category 5
- Posts: 8931
- Age: 20
- Joined: Sat Oct 10, 2020 9:45 am
- Location: Tecumseh, OK/Norman, OK
Re: Great Plains, Midwest, & Deep South Storm Season 2021
Slight Risk shifted eastward . . .
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
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Iceresistance
- Category 5
- Posts: 8931
- Age: 20
- Joined: Sat Oct 10, 2020 9:45 am
- Location: Tecumseh, OK/Norman, OK
Re: Great Plains, Midwest, & Deep South Storm Season 2021
WPC is having issues, but I managed to get the proper dates on the Flooding risks
Today
Tomorrow, with a very broad Slight Risk of Flooding from Ohio to Southern Texas
Today
Tomorrow, with a very broad Slight Risk of Flooding from Ohio to Southern Texas
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
-
Iceresistance
- Category 5
- Posts: 8931
- Age: 20
- Joined: Sat Oct 10, 2020 9:45 am
- Location: Tecumseh, OK/Norman, OK
Re: Great Plains, Midwest, & Deep South Storm Season 2021
12z HRRR
A LOT of rain & some flooding when it's all set & done
A LOT of rain & some flooding when it's all set & done
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
-
Iceresistance
- Category 5
- Posts: 8931
- Age: 20
- Joined: Sat Oct 10, 2020 9:45 am
- Location: Tecumseh, OK/Norman, OK
Re: Great Plains, Midwest, & Deep South Storm Season 2021
Observation at Tecumseh, OK
Time: 10:35 AM CDT or 1525z
Current Conditions: Cloudy
Temperature: 70°F
Dew Point: 64°F
Relative Humidity: 81%
Wind: S at 15 mph, gusting to 25 mph
Pressure: 29.70 InHg or 1007 MB
Watches & Warnings: None
Time: 10:35 AM CDT or 1525z
Current Conditions: Cloudy
Temperature: 70°F
Dew Point: 64°F
Relative Humidity: 81%
Wind: S at 15 mph, gusting to 25 mph
Pressure: 29.70 InHg or 1007 MB
Watches & Warnings: None
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
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ElectricStorm
- Category 5
- Posts: 4623
- Age: 23
- Joined: Tue Aug 13, 2019 11:23 pm
- Location: Skiatook, OK / Norman, OK
Re: Great Plains, Midwest, & Deep South Storm Season 2021
Yeah this will definitely mostly be a flood event, which is usually worse than severe storms. Cloudy here right now and I don't expect that to change all day. First round of elevated storms should be here around 7ish so we'll see what happens. Probably a decent shot at getting a severe warning here today.
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I am in no way a professional. Take what I say with a grain of salt as I could be totally wrong. Please refer to the NHC, NWS, or SPC for official information.
Boomer Sooner!
Boomer Sooner!
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InfernoFlameCat
- Category 5
- Posts: 1966
- Age: 21
- Joined: Mon Dec 14, 2020 10:52 am
- Location: Buford, GA
Re: Great Plains, Midwest, & Deep South Storm Season 2021
Clouds are really limiting Diurnal heating. This would be a much bigger threat if not for the extensive CC.
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I am by no means a professional. DO NOT look at my forecasts for official information or make decisions based on what I post.
Goal: to become a registered expert over tropical and subtropical cyclones.
Goal: to become a registered expert over tropical and subtropical cyclones.
-
Iceresistance
- Category 5
- Posts: 8931
- Age: 20
- Joined: Sat Oct 10, 2020 9:45 am
- Location: Tecumseh, OK/Norman, OK
Re: Great Plains, Midwest, & Deep South Storm Season 2021
Observation in Tecumseh, OK
Time: 11 AM CDT or 1600z
Current Conditions: Cloudy
Temperature: 70°F
Dew Point: 64°F
Relative Humidity: 82%
Wind: S at 15 mph, gusting to 25 mph
Pressure: 29.75 InHg or 1007.5 MB
Watches & Warnings:
Flood Watch until Thursday Morning
Time: 11 AM CDT or 1600z
Current Conditions: Cloudy
Temperature: 70°F
Dew Point: 64°F
Relative Humidity: 82%
Wind: S at 15 mph, gusting to 25 mph
Pressure: 29.75 InHg or 1007.5 MB
Watches & Warnings:
Flood Watch until Thursday Morning
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
-
Iceresistance
- Category 5
- Posts: 8931
- Age: 20
- Joined: Sat Oct 10, 2020 9:45 am
- Location: Tecumseh, OK/Norman, OK
Re: Great Plains, Midwest, & Deep South Storm Season 2021
Slight Risk extended into Kansas City & Added in Wisconsin
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
-
Iceresistance
- Category 5
- Posts: 8931
- Age: 20
- Joined: Sat Oct 10, 2020 9:45 am
- Location: Tecumseh, OK/Norman, OK
Re: Great Plains, Midwest, & Deep South Storm Season 2021
Noon Observation in Tecumseh, OK
Time: 12 PM CDT or 1700z
Current Conditions: Cloudy
Temperature: 71°F
Dew Point: 65°F
Relative Humidity: 80%
Wind: S at 15 mph, gusting to 25 mph
Pressure: 29.76 InHg or 1008 MB
Watches & Warnings:
Flood Watch until Thursday Morning
Time: 12 PM CDT or 1700z
Current Conditions: Cloudy
Temperature: 71°F
Dew Point: 65°F
Relative Humidity: 80%
Wind: S at 15 mph, gusting to 25 mph
Pressure: 29.76 InHg or 1008 MB
Watches & Warnings:
Flood Watch until Thursday Morning
0 likes
Bill 2015 & Beta 2020
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
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somethingfunny
- ChatStaff
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- Joined: Thu May 31, 2007 10:30 pm
- Location: McKinney, Texas
Re: Great Plains, Midwest, & Deep South Storm Season 2021
Weather Dude wrote:Also just remembered that the new severe warning system starts Wednesday. I wonder if they'll start it if there's an ongoing event?
What new severe warning system?
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I am not a meteorologist, and any posts made by me are not official forecasts or to be interpreted as being intelligent. These posts are just my opinions and are probably silly opinions.
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ElectricStorm
- Category 5
- Posts: 4623
- Age: 23
- Joined: Tue Aug 13, 2019 11:23 pm
- Location: Skiatook, OK / Norman, OK
Re: Great Plains, Midwest, & Deep South Storm Season 2021
somethingfunny wrote:Weather Dude wrote:Also just remembered that the new severe warning system starts Wednesday. I wonder if they'll start it if there's an ongoing event?
What new severe warning system?
It divides severe thunderstorm warnings into 3 tiers based on impacts. Right now when a storm is warned for either baseball or larger hail, or 80+ mph winds, the warning text is tagged with a line that says "This is a very dangerous storm". I believe under the new system, instead of having that line, I'm pretty sure an emergency alert will be sent out to peoples phones/radios, just like a tornado warning.
Here is an article that explains it way better than me.
https://www.weathernationtv.com/news/nw ... -in-april/
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