STORM2K

SoupBone wrote:

Iceresistance wrote:

rwfromkansas wrote:Will that tropical system screw Texas out of rain that was supposed to happen later?

I mean, today's GFS and yesterday's Euro had virtually no rain.

Not sure what the CPC is smoking.

Just wait a couple of weeks . . .

Can't keep kicking that can, eventually these rain forecasts have to be called busts. So many days of high percentage rain forecasts where we get no rain at all.

I have that issue too at my house! I had several days in a row with multiple chances of rain to be busted with either absolutely nothing or just a trace. The storms are so dodgy of me!

Iceresistance wrote:

SoupBone wrote:

Iceresistance wrote:
Just wait a couple of weeks . . .

Can't keep kicking that can, eventually these rain forecasts have to be called busts. So many days of high percentage rain forecasts where we get no rain at all.

I have that issue too at my house! I had several days in a row with multiple chances of rain to be busted with either absolutely nothing or just a trace. The storms are so dodgy of me!

So I asked this question in another thread,I have not lived in South Texas when the drought has been so severe .How typically does it end??

Wampadawg wrote:

Iceresistance wrote:

SoupBone wrote:
Can't keep kicking that can, eventually these rain forecasts have to be called busts. So many days of high percentage rain forecasts where we get no rain at all.

I have that issue too at my house! I had several days in a row with multiple chances of rain to be busted with either absolutely nothing or just a trace. The storms are so dodgy of me!

So I asked this question in another thread,I have not lived in South Texas when the drought has been so severe .How typically does it end??

It usually ends by a deluge, it happened in 2013-2015, and I still remember the crazy storms in that time period, the catastrophic drought from 2011 & 2012 that covered all of the southern plains was wiped out, I did remember seeing the archived Texas forums that the drought of 2011-2012 got so bad, that even the SE Texas residents literally said that they wanted a TC to destroy the drought.

I'm sure many are disappointed with the tropical system moving southwest. In a normal year there would be a weakness and the north and right side would have plenty of rainfall chances but there is a stout ridge enhancing subsidence so the south side is favored. It's just how it is in 2022, persistence and keep expectations real. This is the story of the summer, a system will have copious rains on the east side if it's near Louisiana, if it's near Texas it will be out in the gulf, of course right? But that's what a cockroach ridge does, it blocks.

Pattern still looks like it will take for a turn to a weakness in our region which will provide heat relief and perhaps sustain it. Still will say any qpf forecast don't believe it until it is falling and/or just expect the low end. That being said with the weakness it is probably our best shot at some decent rain in a few months.

Iceresistance wrote:

Wampadawg wrote:

Iceresistance wrote:I have that issue too at my house! I had several days in a row with multiple chances of rain to be busted with either absolutely nothing or just a trace. The storms are so dodgy of me!

So I asked this question in another thread,I have not lived in South Texas when the drought has been so severe .How typically does it end??

It usually ends by a deluge, it happened in 2013-2015, and I still remember the crazy storms in that time period, the catastrophic drought from 2011 & 2012 that covered all of the southern plains was wiped out, I did remember seeing the archived Texas forums that the drought of 2011-2012 got so bad, that even the SE Texas residents literally said that they wanted a TC to destroy the drought.

Yeah, it seems more than once in the last 2 decades that Lake Travis has gone from near-historic low levels to floodgates operating within several weeks. And that's a big freaking lake.

Hey y'all! I have officially moved now to Starkville. The drive up here featured some scattered showers but it's nice and dry here right now. Looking forward to a great semester coming up studying my favorite subject--weather!

captainbarbossa19 wrote:Hey y'all! I have officially moved now to Starkville. The drive up here featured some scattered showers but it's nice and dry here right now. Looking forward to a great semester coming up studying my favorite subject--weather!

Starkvegas! Enjoy the college experience.

captainbarbossa19 wrote:Hey y'all! I have officially moved now to Starkville. The drive up here featured some scattered showers but it's nice and dry here right now. Looking forward to a great semester coming up studying my favorite subject--weather!

Well, enjoy being in Mississippi!

bubba hotep wrote:https://c.tenor.com/yfO663rxRGYAAAAM/mother-of-god-what-is-it.gif

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FaJpMzXXkAAGoP0?format=png&name=large

https://m1o.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf_full/2022081412/240/qpf_acc.us_sc.png

https://m1o.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2022081412/384/qpf_acc.us_sc.png

This drought may break, but it's far out and it could literally dry up before it gets here.

 https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/1559117965643096064

Morning update from Jeff Lindner:

Impressive “tropical system” over SW TX this morning with a well defined center located NW of Laredo TX.

98L made landfall near Kingsville TX early Sunday and has brought widespread and in some cases significant rainfall to southern Texas where some places have seen more rainfall in the last 36 hours than much of this year. 98L will continue to move WNW in the general direction of Big Bend over the next 24 hours with a moisture feed and low level convergence shifting westward toward the Rio Grande and then into eastern MX as high pressure builds in from the NE. While moisture is still in place over SE TX today, building upper level heights will help to cap off much activity along the seabreeze.

Forecast will be mainly dry and hot through Wednesday with high pressure back in control. Lack of rainfall the last few days over the Brazos Valley area will result in afternoon temperatures back into the low 100’s as early as today and through Wednesday.

Upper air pattern will undergo significant transition toward the middle and end of the week with a large trough developing over the eastern US which will help drive a surface boundary down into TX and possibly into the Gulf waters. Showers and thunderstorms will begin to increase on Thursday as the boundary sinks into the area from the north and then lingers near the coast or offshore into next weekend. At the same time a strong tropical wave will be moving westward from the Caribbean Sea toward the Yucatan and the southern Gulf of Mexico. This tropical wave will then turn NW over the Gulf and move toward the western Gulf next weekend south of the stalled frontal boundary. Both the GFS and ECMWF have been hinting at surface low pressure developing with this tropical wave axis over the western Gulf of Mexico next weekend. End result is likely a wet weather pattern starting on Thursday and lasting into next weekend and even the following week.

Tropics:
Several areas to watch over the next 5-10 days as favorable phase of the MJO moves into the Atlantic basin. Southern/western Gulf late this week into next weekend. Additionally several strong tropical waves will be moving off the western coast of Africa and there is some global model support that these waves may attempt to develop as they move westward across the Atlantic basin.

Jeff Lindner
Director Hydrologic Operations Division/Meteorologist
Harris County Flood Control District

When is it time to start believing the GFS? It has consistently been showing significant rainfall for all of Texas starting later this week. It also seems to be trending wetter. Hopefully the fall pattern will deliver this year and this system is a sign of things to come. The Pacific seems to be delivering in New Mexico and Colorado even though we continue to be in a strong La Nina.

lukem wrote:When is it time to start believing the GFS?

Never?

lukem wrote:When is it time to start believing the GFS? It has consistently been showing significant rainfall for all of Texas starting later this week. It also seems to be trending wetter. Hopefully the fall pattern will deliver this year and this system is a sign of things to come. The Pacific seems to be delivering in New Mexico and Colorado even though we continue to be in a strong La Nina.

The Euro doesn’t look half bad either and the EPS actually looks better than the GEFS.

98L being 150 miles further north would have been great. Drought persists here in Comal County/eastern Hill Country.

Happy for far western Hill Country and south TX at least. It's funny how when we actually need the classic asymmetrical north/east favored slop storm- no dice.

Next we'll get a landfalling TC into TX coast with westernmost convection in Beaumont and LA and Arkansas will get 20+ inches of rain. Such is life.

La Nina -1.1C this week and it is only August. We are headed for the strongest Nina event since 2010. With the PDO sink last month long term drought will persist if not get worse.

The broad rainfall pattern indexes (PDO, ENSO, and SOI) hasn't changed all that much. We are sitting about where we were in April. And that told us back then the coming months would favor dry, same here.

Short and medium term we can still get bouts of rain from intraseasonal variability. The last half of August should be better than the first half. But this is basic climo saying it should.

Ntxw wrote:La Nina -1.1C this week and it is only August. We are headed for the strongest Nina event since 2010. With the PDO sink last month long term drought will persist if not get worse.

The broad rainfall pattern indexes (PDO, ENSO, and SOI) hasn't changed all that much. We are sitting about where we were in April. And that told us back then the coming months would favor dry, same here.

Short and medium term we can still get bouts of rain from intraseasonal variability. The last half of August should be better than the first half. But this is basic climo saying it should.

Models seem to be looking good in the medium to long range only to slowly fade away as it gets closer. Really discouraging.