Florida Weather

[FireRat]

wow gatorcane, it will be interesting to see if that cold shot verifies. The time around Thanksgiving has brought florida major cold fronts in the last 7 years...will this be the 8th? hope so, would be great to finally have a end to this ridiculously long hot, tropical summer!

[NDG]

And just that quick the GFS drops its 18z solution, not surprised at all. Not until the NAO & AO go into a well negative territory will FL see a major wx change, we will be warmer than average for the most part through the next 2 weeks at least if not longer.

[FireRat]

Another hot one down here, currently 90 degrees at my location! some spots were 91 - 92 according to my car's thermometer while in motion around town. Could this end up being a real endless summer? This is amazing, no end in sight huh. Never thought I'd be glad to see low 80s for highs in the forecast lol

[gatorcane]

NWS Miami snippet. Kindaof sad when "cooler" is low to mid 80s:

THE BIGGEST CHANGE
WILL BE THE ARRIVAL OF SOME "COOLER" TEMPERATURES, LOW 80S, WITH
THE BREEZY FLOW AND INCREASED CLOUD COVER, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
EAST COAST. INTERIOR/WEST WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER IN THE MID 80S,
BUT STILL CLOSER TO NORMAL THAN WHAT WE`VE SEEN IN THE PAST WEEK.

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php ... glossary=1

[northjaxpro]

As shown on the global models thread, GFS 240 hr run shows some potential of colder temps finally dropping into at least North Florida by Nov 21-22. Let's see if this holds up or if GFS kills this idea later. We shall see. Long been ready for some cooler weather I can tell you that much for sure!

[NDG]

As of yesterday Orlando Int'l so far this month is averaging 89.1 for highs & 70.2 F for lows, a whopping 9.2 degrees above average for the month, incredible. Highs in the upper 70s this weekend is going to feel cold lol.

[gatorcane]

The GFS and ECMWF paint a warm picture for Florida for the next 10 days with a slight cool down this weekend which will be ephemeral indeed.

GFS keeps hinting at much cooler weather but it always seems to be beyond 10 days in the long-range.

[northjaxpro]

The NOAA 8-14 day temperature outlook tells the story. Colder than normal out west, warmer than normal in the East, with well above normal in the Northeast and New England. Should this verify, looks like classic set-up with deep troughing right over and west of the Rockies and a building ridge in the Eastern CONUS going into Thanksgiving.

This pseudo summer just does not want to end gang...

[TheStormExpert]

I'll take it since it's the best we can get in terms of "cooler" weather right now.

MOST NOTABLY THE PATTERN CHANGE AND INCREASED PRECIP AND CLOUD
COVER WILL BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
IN THE LOW 80S. WOULDN`T BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW LOCATIONS ALONG
THE IMMEDIATE EAST COAST THAT DON`T GET OUT OF THE 70S SUN/MON.

[psyclone]

last week was just too hot but this week has been great...or at least much better...still above normal but not record breaking and more reasonable dewpoints. we're getting a quick cooldown this weekend but immediately bounce back to above normal (but not record breaking) temps next week. Tampa has not fallen below 60 since late march...65 is the coolest they've been this fall. For St Pete the low so far this fall (I think at albert whitted) is 70.

[gatorcane]

Latest GFS is out and there is just no real cool autumn-like air for Florida in the foreseeable future. All I see are above normal temperatures. Here are your temps for Sun. 11/22.

[psyclone]

Low to mid 80's over the peninsula...looks fantastic to me!

[NDG]

Upper 50s in Orlando this morning, first time getting down below 60 since March 31st, almost 8 months ago, wow!
Above average temps return for next week.

[TheStormExpert]

Both the GFS and Euro are now in good agreement on a somewhat stronger cold front(compared to this past weekends) passing through the Florida Peninsula around the 22nd or 23rd of November. With the NAO and AO heading towards Neutral territory it is believable.

GFS 500mb Heights Hr. 138



Euro 500mb Heights Hr. 144

[northjaxpro]

We shall see. I have already seen the models back off twice on cooler air coming towards Florida just in the last 7 days. I suspect if it does verify to cooler, it will only get it to near normal levels, which I will take right now given how ridiculously warm it has been all Fall season.

[northjaxpro]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
859 PM EST MON NOV 16 2015


CLIMATE...

FIRST HALF OF NOVEMBER WAS THE WARMEST ON RECORD AT JACKSONVILLE...
ST SIMONS ISLAND AND ALMA GEORGIA AND THE SECOND WARMEST ON
RECORD AT GAINESVILLE.

[NDG]

Indeed it looks like a stronger cold front will come through the Peninsula Saturday night, but the core of the cold air will be moving more east than south. Parts of north FL could get down into the 30s, more widespread 50s for central FL next Monday morning with highs only in the low 70s to mid 70s for central FL on Sunday. This time around the Euro is more bullish than the GFS.

[NDG]

Now the Euro has been trending warmer for central and southern FL while the GFS now has temps in the 40s for lows in central FL Monday morning. The Euro usually sees something right within 5 days.

[northjaxpro]

It does look like we will FINALLY see a decent cold front to move through late this weekend across the state. A strong shortwave will carve out an upper trough to briefly drive down a decent shot of cooler air at least into North and Central Florida early next week. Currently, projected lows in the Jax area are forecast to be in the low-mid 40s Monday morning, with the flow coming from north to veering northeast, with winds blowing in which will keep temps here in Jax from dropping into the 30s. Inland North Florida and the Panhandle areas may see temps drop into the 30s Monday morning. Outside of wind protected areas, it looks as though most areas will not see their first frost or freeze of the season with this brief cool spell early next week.


Highs on Monday are currently forecast to be only around 60 degrees! About time we see a decent cooldown here in Jax. This cool spell will be brief early next week as upper ridging returns and 500mb heights begin the rise to bring back milder/warmer conditions to the area by the latter portions of next week.

Elsewhere, it should drop into the 50s for minimums across central Florida in most areas Monday-Tuesday and max temps into the Low 70s Monday.

South Florida should see less humid conditions as the front clears that area by late Monday. Max temps expected in the upper 70s.

[Sanibel]

Nice heavy rain just now. Recharged the wetland pools. Hot sun right after.


Could be a glimpse of Nino.