Caribbean - Central America Weather

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL STORM MARIA TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142011
1225 PM AST FRI SEP 09 2011

AT 1215 PM AST...1615 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF FRANCE HAS ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR MARTINIQUE...ST. MARTIN...AND ST.
BARTHELEMY.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

[Macrocane]

The temperatures registered on Septmeber 8 in Central America:
-Near normal lows in all the region.
-Warmer than normal highs in Guatemala, El Salvador, Honduras and Nicaragua. Cooler than normal highs in Belize and Panama. Near normal in Costa Rica.

Minimum Temperatures
Belize city, Belize 24°C (75°F)
Mountain Pine Ridge, Belize 19.6°C (67.3°F) Coolest since August 5
Guatemala city, Guatemala 16°C (61°F)
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala 10.3°C (50.5°F)
Zacapa, Guatemala 25°C (77°F)
San Salvador, El Salvador 19.3°C (66.7°F)
Las Pilas, El Salvador 12.6°C (54.7°F)
San Miguel, El Salvador 23.7°C (74.7°F) Warmest since August 6
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 17°C (63°F)
La Esperanza, Honduras 15°C (59°F)
Choluteca, Honduras 24°C (75°F)
Managua, Nicaragua 24°C (75°F)
Jinotega, Nicaragua 17°C (63°F)
San Jose, Costa Rica 17.7°C (63.9°F)
Liberia, Costa Rica 22.4°C (72.3°F)
Panama city, Panama 22.7°C (72.9°F)
Boquete, Panama 13.9°C (57.0°F)

Maximum Temperatures
Belize city, Belize 30°C (86°F)
Mountain Pine Ridge, Belize 27.9°C (82.2°F)
Guatemala city, Guatemala 26°C (79°F)
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala 21.0°C (69.8°F)
Zacapa, Guatemala 38°C (100°F) Warmest since May 21
San Salvador, El Salvador 30.7°C (87.3°F)
Las Pilas, El Salvador 23.1°C (73.6°F)
San Miguel, El Salvador 35.1°C (95.2°F)
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 30°C (86°F)
La Esperanza, Honduras 25°C (77°F)
Choluteca, Honduras 34°C (93°F)
Managua, Nicaragua 33°C (91°F)
Jinotega, Nicaragua 29°C (84°F)
San Jose, Costa Rica 27.2°C (81.0°F)
Liberia, Costa Rica 30.2°C (86.4°F)
Panama city, Panama 27.9°C (82.2°F)
Boquete, Panama 20.2°C (68.4°F)

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM MARIA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 12A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142011
200 PM AST FRI SEP 09 2011

...MARIA SLOWS DOWN AS IT NEARS THE LESSER ANTILLES...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.3N 57.9W
ABOUT 135 MI...220 KM NE OF BARBADOS
ABOUT 275 MI...445 KM ESE OF GUADELOUPE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES

[cycloneye]

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TROPICAL STORM MARIA LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
247 PM AST FRI SEP 9 2011

...MARIA SLOWS DOWN AS IT NEARS THE LESSER ANTILLES...

.NEW INFORMATION...
STORM INFORMATION UPDATED.

.AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS LOCAL STATEMENT PROVIDES IMPORTANT INFORMATION AND
RECOMMENDED ACTIONS FOR PEOPLE AND MARINE INTERESTS IN SELECT
LOCATIONS AND COASTAL WATER LEGS OF PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S.
VIRGIN ISLANDS COASTAL WATERS.

.WATCHES/WARNINGS...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING CONTINUES FOR PUERTO RICO INCLUDING
CULEBRA AND VIEQUES AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS.

FOR MARINE INTERESTS...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING CONTINUES FOR
ALL OF PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS COASTAL WATERS.

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR PUERTO RICO INCLUDING VIEQUES
AND CULEBRA AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. PLEASE LISTEN CLOSELY
FOR ANY FLOOD WARNINGS THAT MIGHT BE IN EFFECT FOR YOUR AREA.

.STORM INFORMATION...
AT 2 PM AST...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MARIA WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 14.3N...LONGITUDE 57.9W. THIS WAS ABOUT 610 MILES
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF SAN JUAN PR...OR ABOUT 540 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST
OF SAINT THOMAS VI. STORM MOTION WAS WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT
14 MPH. STORM INTENSITY WAS 45 MPH.

.SITUATION OVERVIEW...
TROPICAL STORM MARIA IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING IN A GENERAL
WEST NORTHWEST MOTION FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO. ON THIS FORECAST
TRACK...THE CENTER OF MARIA WILL BE VERY NEAR THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS...CULEBRA...VIEQUES...AND EASTERN PUERTO RICO BY SATURDAY
NIGHT. THERE IS A SERIOUS CONCERN FOR A SIGNIFICANT HEAVY RAINFALL
AND FLASH FLOODING EVENT ACROSS THE LOCAL REGION DUE TO RECENT
HEAVY RAINS. THERE IS ALSO A CONCERN FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF
DAMAGING WINDS...ESPECIALLY TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF WHERE THE
CENTER TRACKS.

.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR THOSE UNDER A WARNING...NOW IS THE TIME TO RUSH TO COMPLETION
PREPARATIONS FOR THE PROTECTION OF LIFE AND PROPERTY. EVACUATE IF
DIRECTED TO DO SO BY LOCAL OFFICIALS...OR IF YOUR HOME IS
VULNERABLE TO HIGH WINDS OR FLOODING.

FOR INTERESTS AT PORTS...DOCKS...AND MARINAS...URGENTLY COMPLETE
PRESCRIBED PREPARATIONS ACCORDING TO YOUR EMERGENCY OPERATIONS
PLAN FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES. IF YOU LIVE ON A BOAT...MAKE FINAL
PREPARATIONS FOR SECURING YOUR CRAFT BEFORE LEAVING IT. BE SURE TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE POSSIBLE CLOSURE OF BRIDGES AND CAUSEWAYS.

REGARDING ANY COASTAL WATERS UNDER A WARNING...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD
REMAIN IN PORT AND WELL SECURED.

FOR ADDITIONAL PRECAUTIONARY AND PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION...
PLEASE REFER TO THE DETAILED RECOMMENDATIONS RELATIVE TO YOUR
LOCATION AS FURTHER DESCRIBED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE OFFICE AND LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.

&&

.NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE IN SAN JUAN AROUND 630 PM AST...OR SOONER IF CONDITIONS
WARRANT.

PRZ001>013-VIZ001-002-101900-
/O.CON.TJSJ.TR.W.1014.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
SAN JUAN AND VICINITY-NORTHEAST-SOUTHEAST-EASTERN INTERIOR-
NORTH CENTRAL-CENTRAL INTERIOR-PONCE AND VICINITY-NORTHWEST-
WESTERN INTERIOR-MAYAGUEZ AND VICINITY-SOUTHWEST-CULEBRA-VIEQUES-
ST. THOMAS/ST. JOHN/ADJACENT ISLANDS-ST CROIX-
247 PM AST FRI SEP 9 2011

...TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT...

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FINAL PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE COMPLETED
BEFORE CONDITIONS DETERIORATE. THE ONSET OF GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY
RAINS CAN CAUSE OUTSIDE ACTIVITIES TO BECOME DANGEROUS. SECURE
LOOSE OUTDOOR OBJECTS WHICH CAN BE BLOWN AROUND. IF YOU LIVE IN A
MOBILE HOME...LEAVE IT FOR MORE SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER.


&&

...WINDS AND SEAS...
AS TROPICAL STORM MARIA MOVES CLOSER...THE THREAT FOR SUSTAINED HIGH
WINDS IS LIKELY TO INCREASE. THE LATEST FORECAST IS FOR TROPICAL
STORM FORCE WINDS FROM LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON TO SUNDAY EVENING.
WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE 45 TO 55 MPH RANGE WITH GUSTS OF 65
MPH OR GREATER. EAST SWELLS WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT THE ATLANTIC OFF
SHORE COASTAL WATERS SATURDAY AND WILL BUILD SIGNIFICANTLY
BY SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. COMBINED SEAS ACROSS THE
REGIONAL WATERS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH 8 TO 14 FEET OR GREATER.

...INLAND FLOODING...
RAIN BANDS WITH EMBEDDED TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS ASSOCIATED WITH
TROPICAL STORM MARIA ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN AFFECTING THE U.S.
VIRGIN ISLANDS SATURDAY MORNING...AND PUERTO RICO SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE BANDS OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SURROUNDING TROPICAL STORM MARIA WILL
BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF FOUR TO
EIGHT INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE IN FAVORED
AREA. MUDSLIDES AND DEBRIS FLOW ARE ALSO POSSIBLE IN AREAS OF
STEEP TERRAIN. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE
AREA.

...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE...
THE IMPACT FROM COMBINED STORM SURGE AND TIDE WATERS IS EXPECTED TO
BE LOW. THE STORM SURGE IS FORECAST TO RANGE FROM 1 TO 2 FEET.
THIS SURGE WILL ADD TO THE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...CREATING ABOVE
NORMAL TIDES. THUS...THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A SHORT PERIOD OF
INUNDATION OF LOW LYING AREAS UNTIL THE ONSHORE WINDS SUBSIDE.

IN ADDITION TO ABOVE NORMAL TIDES...HIGH SURF...AND STRONG RIP
CURRENTS ARE EXPECTED. THE SURF ALONG THE SOUTH AND NORTH COASTS OF
PUERTO RICO WILL LIKELY APPROACH 8 TO 12 FEET ON SUNDAY MORNING
THROUGH MONDAY. THIS COULD CAUSE SIGNIFICANT BEACH EROSION AND
POSSIBLY FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS AND ROADS.

...TORNADOES...
ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE MOST LIKELY TO OCCUR ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS IN THE OUTER RAINBANDS...AS THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM
MARIA SLOWLY APPROACH THE LOCAL AREA AND THEN PASSES CLOSE TO PUERTO
RICO...AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. REMEMBER...
TORNADOES CAN DEVELOP MANY MILES AWAY FROM THE TROPICAL CYCLONE
CENTER OF CIRCULATION.

$$

AMZ710-712-715-722-725-732-735-741-742-745-101900-
/O.CON.TJSJ.TR.W.1014.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
ATLC WATERS OF PUERTO RICO AND USVI FROM 10NM TO 19.5N-
COASTAL WATERS OF NORTHERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM-
COASTAL WATERS OF NORTHERN USVI AND CULEBRA OUT 10 NM-
ANEGADA PASSAGE SOUTHWARD TO 17N-
COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHERN USVI VIEQUES AND EASTERN PUERTO RICO
OUT 10 NM-CARIBBEAN WATERS OF PUERTO RICO FROM 10 NM TO 17N-
COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM-
MONA PASSAGE SOUTHWARD TO 17N-
COASTAL WATERS OF NORTHWESTERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM-
COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHWESTERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM-
247 PM AST FRI SEP 9 2011

...TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT...

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

BOAT OWNERS AND CAPTAINS OF SMALL CRAFT SHOULD RUSH TO COMPLETION
THE SECURING OF THEIR CRAFT.


&&

...WINDS AND SEAS...
AS TROPICAL STORM MARIA MOVES CLOSER...THE THREAT FOR SUSTAINED HIGH
WINDS IS LIKELY TO INCREASE. THE LATEST FORECAST IS FOR TROPICAL
STORM FORCE WINDS FROM LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON TO SUNDAY EVENING.
WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE 45 TO 55 MPH RANGE WITH GUSTS OF 65
MPH OR GREATER. EAST SWELLS WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT THE ATLANTIC OFF
SHORE COASTAL WATERS SATURDAY AND WILL BUILD SIGNIFICANTLY
BY SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. COMBINED SEAS ACROSS THE
REGIONAL WATERS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH 8 TO 14 FEET OR GREATER.

...MARINE...
ROUGH AND HAZARDOUS SEAS ARE EXPECTED MAINLY ACROSS THE LOCAL AND
REGIONAL WATERS AS TROPICAL STORM MARIA BRINGS INCREASING WINDS AND
SEAS STARTING SATURDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. SEAS ARE
EXPECTED TO PEAK ON SUNDAY MORNING...BEFORE SLOWLY SUBSIDING THROUGH
TUESDAY. COMBINED SEAS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE 8 TO 14 FEET OR
GREATER.

...TORNADOES AND WATERSPOUTS...
ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE MOST LIKELY TO OCCUR ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS IN THE OUTER RAINBANDS...AS THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM
MARIA SLOWLY APPROACH THE LOCAL AREA AND THEN PASSES CLOSE TO PUERTO
RICO...AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. REMEMBER...
TORNADOES CAN DEVELOP MANY MILES AWAY FROM THE TROPICAL CYCLONE
CENTER OF CIRCULATION.

[cycloneye]

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
206 PM AST FRI SEP 9 2011

PRZ001>013-VIZ001-002-101815-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FF.A.0011.110910T1400Z-110912T1200Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
SAN JUAN AND VICINITY-NORTHEAST-SOUTHEAST-EASTERN INTERIOR-
NORTH CENTRAL-CENTRAL INTERIOR-PONCE AND VICINITY-NORTHWEST-
WESTERN INTERIOR-MAYAGUEZ AND VICINITY-SOUTHWEST-CULEBRA-VIEQUES-
ST. THOMAS/ST. JOHN/ADJACENT ISLANDS-ST CROIX-
INCLUDING THE MUNICIPALITIES AND/OR ISLANDS OF...SAN JUAN...
CAROLINA...FAJARDO...HUMACAO...GUAYAMA...ARROYO...YABUCOA...
SALINAS...COCO...CAGUAS...ARECIBO...VEGA BAJA...DORADO...COAMO...
COROZAL...AIBONITO...VILLALBA...JAYUYA...PONCE...AGUADILLA...
ISABELA...HATILLO...QUEBRADILLAS...UTUADO...SABANA GRANDE...LARES...
ADJUNTAS...HORMIGUEROS...MOCA...AGUADA...LUYANDO...CABO ROJO...
LAJAS...CULEBRA...ESPERANZA...ANNA`S RETREAT...CHARLOTTE AMALIE...
CHARLOTTE AMALIE EAST...CHARLOTTE AMALIE WEST...CRUZ BAY...
CHRISTIANSTED...FREDERIKSTED...FREDERIKSTED SOUTHEAST...GROVE PLACE
206 PM AST FRI SEP 9 2011

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR PUERTO RICO INCLUDING CULEBRA AND VIEQUES
AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS.

* FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING

* TROPICAL STORM MARIA IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING IN A GENERAL
WEST NORTHWEST MOTION FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. ON THIS
FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF MARIA WILL BE NEAR THE U.S.
VIRGIN ISLANDS... CULEBRA AND VIEQUES...AND EASTERN PUERTO RICO
BY SATURDAY NIGHT. RAIN BANDS ASSOCIATED WITH MARIA WILL
GRADUALLY MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY AND THEN
CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND. AS WITH
TROPICAL SYSTEMS...EXPECT PERIODS OF TORRENTIAL RAINFALL...WITH
RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN THE 4 TO 8 INCH RANGE WITH LOCALIZED HIGHER
AMOUNTS IN THE FAVORED AREAS...LIKE THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE
ISLANDS. THIS RAINFALL WILL RESULT IN RAPID RISES OF LOCAL
STREAMS...RIVERS AND GUTS AND COULD EVENTUALLY LEAD TO
SIGNIFICANT FLASH AND RIVER FLOODING. MUDSLIDES AND DEBRIS FLOWS
ARE EXPECTED IN AREAS OF STEEP TERRAIN...OF HIGHER CONCERN ARE
AREAS THAT WERE ALREADY IMPACTED BY DEBRIS FLOW IN THE WAKE OF
HURRICANE IRENE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR HEAVY
RAIN ACROSS THE WATCH AREA...WHICH MAY LEAD TO FLOODING. IF YOU
ARE IN THE WATCH AREA...CHECK YOUR PREPAREDNESS REQUIREMENTS...
ESPECIALLY IF YOU HAVE INTERESTS ALONG AREA RIVERS. KEEP
INFORMED...AND BE READY FOR QUICK ACTION IF FLOODING IS OBSERVED
OR IF A FLASH FLOOD WARNING IS ISSUED.

PEOPLE IN THE WATCH AREA SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE AWARE OF THE
POSSIBILITY FOR HEAVY RAINFALL. AVOID LOW LYING AREAS...AND BE
CAREFUL WHEN APPROACHING HIGHWAY DIPS AND UNDERPASSES. THE
HEAVY RAIN COULD ALSO CAUSE MUDSLIDES IN AREAS OF STEEP TERRAIN.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...LOCAL TV...RADIO OR YOUR
CABLE TELEVISION PROVIDER FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE
WARNINGS.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND
CLIMATE INFORMATION...IS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT
HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/SJU OR AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV.

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM MARIA ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142011
500 PM AST FRI SEP 09 2011

...RAIN BANDS FROM MARIA MOVING ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.8N 58.6W
ABOUT 125 MI...205 KM NNE OF BARBADOS
ABOUT 215 MI...345 KM ESE OF GUADELOUPE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM MARIA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 13A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142011
800 PM AST FRI SEP 09 2011

...CENTER OF MARIA PASSING NORTH OF BARBADOS AND MOVING TOWARD THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.0N 59.1W
ABOUT 135 MI...215 KM N OF BARBADOS
ABOUT 185 MI...295 KM ESE OF GUADELOUPE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES

[cycloneye]

SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.1N 59.5W
ABOUT 130 MI...210 KM N OF BARBADOS
ABOUT 150 MI...245 KM ESE OF GUADELOUPE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


11 PM Track.

[cycloneye]

Good morning. What a day makes as yesterday PR was in the middle of the cone,but today is almost out of it.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
424 AM AST SAT SEP 10 2011

.SYNOPSIS...TUTT LOW NORTHEAST OF PR WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN TODAY
AS IT LIFTS TO THE NORTH AND GETS ABSORBED BY A POLAR TROUGH.
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL THEN BUILD TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA AND
HOLD THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. TS MARIA FCST TO MOVE ACROSS THE
USVI TONIGHT.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT MARIA IS VERY POORLY
ORGANIZED AND LATEST OBS FROM BUOY 41101 SHOW PRESSURES FALLING JUST
TO THE NORTHEAST OF WHERE THE DEEP CONVECTION IS OCCURRING. THIS
SUGGESTS THAT THE CENTER OF MARIA MAY BE REFORMING FARTHER EAST
UNDER THE DEEP CONVECTION. LATEST TRACK GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
SHIFT TO THE RIGHT WITH MOST OF THE GUIDANCE TAKING MARIA OVER THE
NORTHERN LEEWARD AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS. THIS WOULD PUT
MAINLAND PR TOO FAR AWAY FROM THE TRACK AND ON THE WEAKEST SIDE OF
THE STORM. THIS MEANS THAT ONLY THE USVI AND PERHAPS CULEBRA WILL
HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF EXPERIENCING MINIMAL TS CONDITIONS AND
HEAVY RAINFALL. 4 TO 8 INCHES OF RAIN STILL SEEM LIKELY ALONG THE
TRACK. HOWEVER...MAINLAND PR WOULD BE TOO FAR AWAY FROM THE CENTER
FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL. ONE THING TO CONSIDER IS THAT MODELS
STILL INDICATE PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WITH BEST
CONVERGENCE/CONFLUENCE LINE SETTING UP ACROSS FAR ERN PR AND THE
ADJACENT ISLANDS TO THE EAST. SO SCT CONVECTION STILL APPEARS
LIKELY WITH LOCALIZED TWO TO FOUR INCHES OF RAIN POSSIBLE WITH ANY
CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS. MODEL FIELDS OF 1000-500 MB RH SHOW
VALUES LESS THAN 60% SUGGESTING SUBSTANTIAL BREAKS IN THE CLOUD
COVER THAT COULD AID IN STORM DEVELOPMENT. ANOTHER FACTOR TO
CONSIDER IS RISK FOR ISOLD TORNADOES GIVEN EXPECTED LOW PRESSURE
VALUES ACROSS THE AREA AND MODEST AMOUNT OF 850 MB VORTICITY.
LIMITING FACTOR SEEMS TO BE LACK OF STRONG SFC CONFLUENCE AND/OR
CONVERGENCE OVR MAINLAND PR. THE THREAT FOR TORNADOES IS GREATEST
OVR THE ISLANDS. RISK OF CONVECTION WILL PERSIST THROUGH TUE WITH
DRYING EXPECTED FOR WED.


&&

.AVIATION...CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE AT THE LEEWARDS TERMINALS
THIS MORNING AND USVI TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON. BEST CHANCE FOR TS
CONDITIONS IS USVI AND LEEWARD ISLANDS. SCT CONVECTION EXPECTED
SUN-TUE WITH LOCALLY TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS AND BRIEF MVFR CIGS.
CONDITIONS IMPROVE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...TS CONDITIONS LIKELY ACROSS THE ATLC COASTAL WATERS AND
ADJACENT WATERS TO THE EAST. 8 TO 14 FOOT SEAS ARE EXPECTED NEAR
THE TRACK OF MARIA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 90 77 89 78 / 90 100 100 70
STT 88 80 89 80 / 100 100 100 70

[cycloneye]

...MARIA LOSING ORGANIZATION...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.9N 61.2W
ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM NNE OF GUADELOUPE
ABOUT 340 MI...545 KM ESE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES

[cycloneye]

A question for Barbara or Patti. Is the St Marteen radar working?

[cycloneye]

All warnings have been discontinued.

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM MARIA ADVISORY NUMBER 16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142011
1100 AM AST SAT SEP 10 2011

...MARIA BARELY A TROPICAL CYCLONE...WARNINGS DISCONTINUED...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.3N 61.5W
ABOUT 25 MI...40 KM NE OF ANTIGUA
ABOUT 310 MI...500 KM ESE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

ALL TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

NONE

INTERESTS IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...THE TURKS AND CAICOS
ISLANDS...AND THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF MARIA.

[Patti]

Hi Cycloneye, I havent been able to get the radar up for a while now. I have been using the Guadeloupe radar to see what is going on.

[cycloneye]

Hi Cycloneye, I havent been able to get the radar up for a while now. I have been using the Guadeloupe radar to see what is going on.

Thank you. I also been using that one too.

[cycloneye]

The Flash Flood Watch remains in effect until Monday morning.

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1200 PM AST SAT SEP 10 2011

PRZ001>013-VIZ001-002-110400-
/O.CON.TJSJ.FF.A.0011.000000T0000Z-110912T1200Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
SAN JUAN AND VICINITY-NORTHEAST-SOUTHEAST-EASTERN INTERIOR-
NORTH CENTRAL-CENTRAL INTERIOR-PONCE AND VICINITY-NORTHWEST-
WESTERN INTERIOR-MAYAGUEZ AND VICINITY-SOUTHWEST-CULEBRA-VIEQUES-
ST. THOMAS/ST. JOHN/ADJACENT ISLANDS-ST CROIX-
INCLUDING THE MUNICIPALITIES AND/OR ISLANDS OF...SAN JUAN...
CAROLINA...FAJARDO...HUMACAO...GUAYAMA...ARROYO...YABUCOA...
SALINAS...COCO...CAGUAS...ARECIBO...VEGA BAJA...DORADO...COAMO...
COROZAL...AIBONITO...VILLALBA...JAYUYA...PONCE...AGUADILLA...
ISABELA...HATILLO...QUEBRADILLAS...UTUADO...SABANA GRANDE...LARES...
ADJUNTAS...HORMIGUEROS...MOCA...AGUADA...LUYANDO...CABO ROJO...
LAJAS...CULEBRA...ESPERANZA...ANNA`S RETREAT...CHARLOTTE AMALIE...
CHARLOTTE AMALIE EAST...CHARLOTTE AMALIE WEST...CRUZ BAY...
CHRISTIANSTED...FREDERIKSTED...FREDERIKSTED SOUTHEAST...GROVE PLACE
1200 PM AST SAT SEP 10 2011

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR

* PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS.

* THROUGH MONDAY MORNING

* SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY INDICATE THAT THE CIRCULATION OF
MARIA CONTINUES TO BECOME LESS DEFINED. IF THIS TREND CONTINUES
...MARIA COULD BE DOWNGRADED INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION LATER
TODAY. REGARDLESS INTENSITY OR FORECAST TRACK...COMPUTER
FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE PLENTY OF MOISTURE MOVING
OVER THE AREA DURING THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THEREFORE...THE LIKELIHOOD OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUES OVER PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS THROUGH
AT LEAST MONDAY.

EXPECT RAINFALL AMOUNTS BETWEEN 2 TO 4 INCHES WITH AMOUNTS OF 6
TO 8 INCHES IN ISOLATED AREAS...IN PARTICULAR THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF THE ISLANDS. THIS RAINFALL WILL RESULT IN RAPID
RISES OF LOCAL STREAMS...RIVERS AND GUTS AND COULD EVENTUALLY
LEAD TO SIGNIFICANT FLASH AND RIVER FLOODING. MUDSLIDES AND
DEBRIS FLOWS ARE EXPECTED IN AREAS OF STEEP TERRAIN. AREAS OF
HIGHER CONCERN ARE THOSE THAT WERE ALREADY IMPACTED BY DEBRIS
FLOW IN THE WAKE OF HURRICANE IRENE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR HEAVY
RAIN ACROSS THE WATCH AREA...WHICH MAY LEAD TO FLOODING. IF YOU ARE
IN THE WATCH AREA...CHECK YOUR PREPAREDNESS REQUIREMENTS...
ESPECIALLY IF YOU HAVE INTERESTS ALONG AREA RIVERS. KEEP INFORMED...
AND BE READY FOR QUICK ACTION IF FLOODING IS OBSERVED OR IF A FLASH
FLOOD WARNING IS ISSUED.

PEOPLE IN THE WATCH AREA SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE AWARE OF THE
POSSIBILITY FOR HEAVY RAINFALL. AVOID LOW LYING AREAS...AND BE
CAREFUL WHEN APPROACHING HIGHWAY DIPS AND UNDERPASSES. THE HEAVY
RAIN COULD ALSO CAUSE MUDSLIDES IN AREAS OF STEEP TERRAIN.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...LOCAL TV...RADIO OR YOUR CABLE
TELEVISION PROVIDER FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE
INFORMATION...IS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/SJU
OR AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV.

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
331 PM AST SAT SEP 10 2011

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW JUST NORTH OF THE
U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AND DISSIPATE AS THE
TROPICAL STORM IMPINGES ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW AND
WEAKENS. A SECOND UPPER LOW NEAR 27 NORTH 38 WEST WILL MOVE DUE
WEST TO JUST NORTH OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS BY NEXT WEEKEND. THIS
LOW WILL ALSO CAUSE A REFLECTION AT MID LEVELS.

AT MID LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
AS MARIA ROTATES AROUND ITS WESTERN PERIPHERY.

AT LOWER LEVELS...TROPICAL STORM MARIA WILL CONTINUE MOVING
NORTHWEST WHILE WEAKENING TODAY THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE WILL RIDGE BACK INTO THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN BEHIND IT.
MOISTURE FROM THE TAIL OF MARIA WILL PASS OVER PUERTO RICO AND THE
U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED IMMEDIATELY ON
THURSDAY BY ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...STRONG CONVECTION CONTINUES TO APPEAR ON THE EASTERN
FLANK OF TROPICAL STORM MARIA AS IT MOVES NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 13
KNOTS. MIMIC PRODUCT REVEALS THAT THE LOCAL AREA IS JUST NOW BEING
INVADED BY THE DEEP MOISTURE AROUND THE STORM AND THIS EXPLAINS
WHY ONLY THE SLIGHTEST SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER INTERIOR PUERTO
RICO. NEVERTHELESS...SOME SHOWERS HAVE ALREADY BEGUN OVER THE
EASTERN TIP OF PUERTO RICO AND HAVE CROSSED CULEBRA AND VIEQUES.
BOTH SAINT CROIX AND SAINT THOMAS HAVE HAD MEASURABLE RAIN WHILE
SAINT THOMAS AND SAINT JOHN ARE RECEIVING A SECOND ROUND OF
SHOWERS NOW.

THE SOUNDER IN SAN JUAN AT 2 PM AST WAS SHOWING 1.7 INCHES OF
PRECIPITABLE WATER AND RISING. AT CHRISTIANSTED VALUES WERE NEARLY
TWO INCHES. AS THE ENVELOPE OF PRECIPITABLE WATER MOVES INTO THE
AREA EXPECT SHOWERS TO INCREASE...BUT AMOUNTS EXPECTED WILL BE
CONSIDERABLY LESS THAN WHEN IT WAS EXPECTED THAT THE TROPICAL
STORM WOULD PASS THROUGH THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND CLOSE TO OR
OVER THE NORTHEAST PORTION OF PUERTO RICO. AT THIS TIME SHOWERS
APPEAR TO BE DEVELOPING IN A RAIN BAND THAT IS NOW MOVING INTO
PUERTO RICO AND AMOUNTS FROM THIS BAND SHOULD NOT BE SUFFICIENT TO
CAUSE FLOODING. AS THE TROPICAL STORM MOVES NORTHWEST HOWEVER THE
DEEP CONVECTION ON ITS EASTERN FLANK WILL MOVE CLOSER TO THE AREA
AND LATEST GFS SHOWS RAINFALL AND MOISTURE OVER MOST OF EASTERN
PUERTO RICO DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND CONTINUING INTO THE DAY
OVER ALL OF THE ISLANDS WITH ONSHORE WINDS FROM THE NORTH.
IT IS ESTIMATED THAT TWO TO FOUR INCHES IN ISOLATED AREAS OF
HIGHER TERRAIN COULD RESULT FROM THESE SHOWERS. ELSEWHERE AMOUNTS
WILL BE LESS THAN ONE TO TWO INCHES. AFTER SUNDAY MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO FLOW OVER THE ISLAND FROM THE SOUTH THROUGH
THURSDAY...HOWEVER THE GFS DOES NOT SHOW AS MUCH LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AS WOULD BE NEEDED FOR FLOODING. NEVERTHELESS IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT THE MODEL IS UNDER-FORECASTING THE MOISTURE...GIVEN THE
PRECIPITABLE WATER EXPECTED.

AT THIS TIME AM RELUCTANT TO CANCEL THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL IT
IS CLEAR THAT THE BANDS FROM MARIA WILL BE LESS PRODUCTIVE THAN
THE PRECIPITABLE WATER INDICATES THEY COULD BE. SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED FROM THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT. THEN...THE GFS BRINGS A WEAK DRY
TONGUE INTO PUERTO RICO LATER SUNDAY...BUT ALSO BRINGS BETTER
RELATIVE HUMIDITY AT LOW LEVELS IN ON MONDAY. THEREFORE WILL KEEP
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR NOW...BUT ALL CONCERNED SHOULD UNDERSTAND
THAT CONDITIONS CONDUCIVE TO FLASH FLOODING HAVE YET TO DEVELOP
AND FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED BEFORE 8 PM AST AT THE EARLIEST.
FURTHERMORE FLOODING IS NOT LIKELY IN THE SOUTHERN COASTAL AREAS OF
PUERTO RICO TONIGHT.

THE GFS BRINGS IN SURFACE WINDS OVER 35 KNOTS INTO THE NORTHEAST
CORNER OF OUR FORECAST AREA AND WINDS OF 30 KNOTS OR GREATER HOVER
ON OR JUST INSIDE THE BOUNDARY OF THE FORECAST AREA AT 19.5
DEGREES NORTH THROUGH 8 PM AST SUNDAY. THIS SOLUTION ALSO BUILDS
WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH OVER THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS OF SAINT THOMAS
AND SAINT JOHN OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL LIKELY ALSO BE ACCOMPANIED BY
HEAVY RAINS AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE GUSTS. INTERESTS IN THE
NORTHERN VIRGIN ISLANDS SHOULD REMAIN ON GUARD FOR DIRECT IMPACTS
FROM TROPICAL STORM...LATER TROPICAL DEPRESSION...MARIA THROUGH
AT LEAST SUNDAY. WIND LEVELS IN AND AROUND THE AREA WILL BE
MONITORED AND SHOULD SUSTAINED WINDS OF 25 MPH OR GREATER OCCUR
OR APPEAR IMMINENT A WIND ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED.

&&

.AVIATION...AS TROPICAL STORM MARIA CONTINUES TO MOVE
NORTHWEST...SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE LOCAL TAF SITES.
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TIL 10/23Z. AFTER
10/23Z...MVFR CONDS EXPECTED WITH LOW CIGS AND TEMPO IFR CONDS
POSSIBLE IN OCCASIONAL SHRA/TSRA ESPECIALLY IN THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS AND ALONG THE NORTHERN COASTS OF PUERTO RICO. LOW LEVEL
WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS WERE PRESENT AT 10/19Z AND COULD BUILD TO
15 TO 30 KNOTS OVERNIGHT AT TAF SITES TIST...TNCM...TJSJ AND TJBQ.
LOW LEVEL WINDS WOULD BE NORTHEAST AT ALL MENTIONED SITES EXCEPT
TNCM WHERE THEY WILL BE SOUTHWEST.


&&

.MARINE...SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO BE PRESENT FROM TROPICAL STORM
MARIA IN THE ATLANTIC WATERS NORTHEAST OF PUERTO RICO AND THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN. THE LAST OF THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL
LIKELY NOT COME DOWN UNTIL MONDAY. SEAS RETURN TO 7 FEET IN MANY
AREAS EXPOSED TO EAST OR SOUTHEAST FLOW WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 78 88 78 91 / 100 80 50 40
STT 80 88 81 89 / 100 90 60 50

[cycloneye]

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
954 PM AST SAT SEP 10 2011

PRZ001>004-012-013-VIZ001-002-111000-
/O.CON.TJSJ.FF.A.0012.110911T1200Z-110912T1200Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
SAN JUAN AND VICINITY-NORTHEAST-SOUTHEAST-EASTERN INTERIOR-CULEBRA-
VIEQUES-ST. THOMAS/ST. JOHN/ADJACENT ISLANDS-ST CROIX-
INCLUDING THE MUNICIPALITIES AND/OR ISLANDS OF...SAN JUAN...
CAROLINA...FAJARDO...HUMACAO...GUAYAMA...ARROYO...YABUCOA...
SALINAS...COCO...CAGUAS...CULEBRA...ESPERANZA...ANNA`S RETREAT...
CHARLOTTE AMALIE...CHARLOTTE AMALIE EAST...CHARLOTTE AMALIE WEST...
CRUZ BAY...CHRISTIANSTED...FREDERIKSTED...FREDERIKSTED SOUTHEAST...
GROVE PLACE
954 PM AST SAT SEP 10 2011

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM AST SUNDAY THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING...

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR

* PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO AND VIRGIN ISLANDS...INCLUDING THE
FOLLOWING AREAS...IN PUERTO RICO...CULEBRA...EASTERN INTERIOR...
NORTHEAST...SAN JUAN AND VICINITY...SOUTHEAST AND VIEQUES. IN
VIRGIN ISLANDS...ST CROIX AND ST. THOMAS/ST. JOHN/ADJACENT
ISLANDS.

* FROM 8 AM AST SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING

* WHILE OCCASIONAL SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT NORTHEAST PUERTO
RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS OVERNIGHT THESE SHOWERS WILL NOT
POSE A THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING. HOWEVER...OUTER RAINBANDS
ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL STORM MARIA WILL BECOME MORE FREQUENT
AND HEAVIER STARTING SUNDAY MORNING AND CONTINUING THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING. TWO TO FOUR INCHES OF RAIN WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS
UP TO 8 INCHES STILL APPEAR POSSIBLE MAINLY OVER EASTERN PUERTO
RICO AND ESPECIALLY THE NORTHERN VIRGIN ISLANDS.

* THIS AMOUNT OF RAINFALL COULD RESULT IN RAPID RISES OF LOCAL
STREAMS...RIVERS AND GUTTERS AND LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING. AREAS
OF HIGHER CONCERN ARE THOSE THAT WERE ALREADY IMPACTED BY DEBRIS
FLOW IN THE WAKE OF HURRICANE IRENE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR HEAVY
RAIN ACROSS THE WATCH AREA...WHICH MAY LEAD TO FLOODING. IF YOU ARE
IN THE WATCH AREA...CHECK YOUR PREPAREDNESS REQUIREMENTS...
ESPECIALLY IF YOU HAVE INTERESTS ALONG AREA RIVERS. KEEP INFORMED...
AND BE READY FOR QUICK ACTION IF FLOODING IS OBSERVED OR IF A FLASH
FLOOD WARNING IS ISSUED.

PEOPLE IN THE WATCH AREA SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE AWARE OF THE
POSSIBILITY FOR HEAVY RAINFALL. AVOID LOW LYING AREAS...AND BE
CAREFUL WHEN APPROACHING HIGHWAY DIPS AND UNDERPASSES. THE HEAVY
RAIN COULD ALSO CAUSE MUDSLIDES IN AREAS OF STEEP TERRAIN.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...LOCAL TV...RADIO OR YOUR CABLE
TELEVISION PROVIDER FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE
INFORMATION...IS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/SJU
OR AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV.

[cycloneye]

Good morning. So far nothing nad in PR has occured. Let's see when Maria moves more to the north of us if that tail of rain reach us.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...DELAYED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
635 AM AST SUN SEP 11 2011

.SYNOPSIS...AT 500 AM AST...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MARIA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 63.7 WEST AND WAS
MOVING NORTHWEST AT NEAR 13 MPH. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS. ON THIS FORECAST TRACK...THE
CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MARIA WILL CROSS THROUGH THE EXTREME
NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE LOCAL ATLANTIC OFF SHORE COASTAL WATERS
THIS MORNING.

&&

.DISCUSSION...OUTER FRINGE RAINBANDS FROM TROPICAL STORM MARIA
WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS EARLY THIS
MORNING AND ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE FREQUENT AND HEAVIER
STARTING LATER THIS MORNING AND CONTINUING THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY
MORNING AND PROBABLY LONGER...ESPECIALLY OVER EASTERN PUERTO
RICO...CULEBRA...VIEQUES AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...AS THE MAIN
CONVERGENT INFLOW BAND SETS UP ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS. THIS
PATTERN WILL RESULT IN A GOOD DEAL OF CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FA...WITH PERIODS OF HEAVY
RAINFALL AND THE POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST SOME LOCALIZED FLASH AND
RIVER FLOODING. FOR THIS REASON...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN
EFFECT FOR ROUGHLY THE EASTERN ONE-THIRD OF PUERTO RICO...
CULEBRA...VIEQUES AND ALL OF THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS UNTIL 8 AM
AST MONDAY MORNING. IN GENERAL...EXPECT DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE TO
LINGER ACROSS AT LEAST PARTS OF THE FA THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT OR
EARLY WEDNESDAY...RESULTING IN UNSETTLED CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...AS T.S. MARIA CONTINUES TO MOVE GENERALLY TOWARD THE
NORTHWEST...OUTER RAINBANDS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE LOCAL TAF
SITES FROM TIME TO TIME. PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR CONDS ARE LIKELY ACROSS
TNCM AND TKPK THROUGH AT LEAST 11/20Z DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF T.S.
MARIA. MVFR CONDS WITH OCCASIONAL SHRA/TSRA ARE POSSIBLE
ELSEWHERE...AS T.S. MARIA MAKES IT CLOSEST APPROACH TO USVI AND PR.
WINDS WILL BE VARIABLE AND GUSTY AS THEY WILL BE INFLUENCED BY THE
CIRCULATION OF MARIA. CONDITIONS IMPROVE MON.

&&

.MARINE...AT 500 AM AST...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MARIA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 63.7 WEST AND WAS
MOVING NORTHWEST AT NEAR 11 KNOTS. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS. ON THIS FORECAST TRACK...THE
CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MARIA WILL CROSS THROUGH THE EXTREME
NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE LOCAL ATLANTIC OFF SHORE COASTAL WATERS
THIS MORNING. DUE TO THIS FORECASTED CENTER PASS ACROSS AMZ710
AND THE 34 KNOT TCM WINDS CLIPPING THIS ZONE...A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING WAS LOCALLY RE-ISSUED LATE LAST NIGHT AND REMAINS IN
EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM AST THIS MORNING. THEREAFTER...A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WILL BE IN EFFECT AND REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SEVERAL OTHER
LOCAL MARINE ZONES. IN GENERAL...EXPECT WINDS AND SEAS TO
GRADUALLY SUBSIDE ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS...ESPECIALLY BY THIS
AFTERNOON.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 91 78 89 78 / 80 50 40 50
STT 88 78 89 80 / 90 60 50 50

[Macrocane]

This are the temperatures registered yesterday (September 10, 2011) in Central America:
-Cooler than normal lows in El Salvador especially in the high areas, near normal lows in the rest of the region.
-Cooler than normal highs in El Salvador, Honduras, Nicaragua and parts of Guatemala, near normal highs in the rest of the region.

Minimum Temperatures
Belize city, Belize 25°C (77°F)
Mountain Pine Ridge, Belize 20.3°C (68.5°F) The day before it registered 18.8°C (65.8°F) the coolest low since May 8.
Guatemala city, Guatemala 16°C (61°F)
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala 9.4°C (48.9°F)
Zacapa, Guatemala 23°C (73°F)
San Salvador, El Salvador 19.3°C (66.7°F)
Las Pilas, El Salvador 10.6°C (51.1°F) Coolest temperature in El Salvador since May 23
San Miguel, El Salvador 22.3°C (72.1°F)
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 17°C (63°F)
La Esperanza, Honduras 13°C (55°F)
Choluteca, Honduras 24°C (75°F)
Managua, Nicaragua 24°C (75°F)
Jinotega, Nicaragua 17°C (63°F)
San Jose, Costa Rica 17.3°C (63.1°F)
Liberia, Costa Rica 24°C (75°F)
Irazu volcano, Costa Rica 4°C (39°F) Coolest since July 22
Panama city, Panama 22.9°C (73.2°F)
Boquete, Panama 13.2°C (55.8°F)

Maximum Temperatures
Belize city, Belize 32°C (90°F)
Mountain Pine Ridge, Belize 29.8°C (85.6°F)
Guatemala city, Guatemala 27°C (81°F)
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala 20.0°C (68.0°F)
Zacapa, Guatemala 34°C (93°F)
San Salvador, El Salvador 30.4°C (86.7°F)
Las Pilas, El Salvador 22.0°C (71.6°F)
San Miguel, El Salvador 35.4°C (95.7°F)
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 30°C (86°F)
La Esperanza, Honduras 25°C (77°F)
Choluteca, Honduras 34°C (93°F)
Managua, Nicaragua 33°C (91°F)
Jinotega, Nicaragua 28°C (82°F) The day before it registered 30°C (86°F) the warmest since May 19
San Jose, Costa Rica 27.8°C (82.0°F)
Liberia, Costa Rica 31°C (88°F)
Irazu volcano, Costa Rica 16°C (61°F)
Panama city, Panama 31.8°C (89.2°F)
Boquete, Panama 20.1°C (68.2°F) Coolest since July 30.

[cycloneye]

Center is closer to the Virgin Islands.


BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM MARIA ADVISORY NUMBER 20
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142011
1100 AM AST SUN SEP 11 2011

...CENTER OF MARINA PASSING JUST NORTH OF THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS...STRONG WINDS REMAIN WELL NORTH OVER THE ATLANTIC
WATERS...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.0N 64.6W
ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM NNE OF ST. THOMAS
ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM ENE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...THE TURKS AND CAICOS
ISLANDS...AND THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS
OF MARIA.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MARIA WAS
LOCATED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT NEAR
LATITUDE 19.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 64.6 WEST. MARIA IS MOVING TOWARD
THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/H. A TURN TOWARD THE
NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY...AND THIS MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF
MARIA WILL GRADUALLY MOVE AWAY FROM THE EXTREME NORTHEASTERN
CARIBBEAN ISLANDS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. THESE WINDS ARE OCCURRING OVER WATER TO THE NORTH AND EAST
OF THE CENTER. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS ANTICIPATED
DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 200 MILES...325
KM...TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE AIR FORCE
RECONNAISSANCE PLANE WAS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...MARIA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF
2 TO 4 INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES OVER THE
LESSER ANTILLES...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND PUERTO RICO.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN