Florida Weather

[TheStormExpert]

Feels pleasant out finally tonight, with dewpoints in the low 60's and temps in the upper 60's with a somewhat gusty north wind at the moment! Good enough to open the windows/doors for now.

[gatorcane]

Yeah it does actually feel cool outside for a change with temps in the upper 60s, cool and damp with the north wind, pretty "wintry" for us down here in South Florida!

[psyclone]

it feels chilly here tonight. temps are in the mid 60's and the expected low is in the upper 50's.

[TheStormExpert]

Yeah it does actually feel cool outside for a change with temps in the upper 60s, cool and damp with the north wind, pretty "wintry" for us down here in South Florida!

Yep it feels fantastic out! Never been this desperate to open the windows/doors up. Still curious if and when we might see overnight lows dip into the 50's. Wonder what the latest date here in WPB is for temps to dip into the 50's?

[Ntxw]

No surprise in some of the hefty rains lately in parts of SFL. The subtropical jet has fed into a persistent wet pattern there that you can see clearly from the eastern Pacific. In the medium range things should be allowed to dry out some as the PNA reverts back to neutral-negative and the jet is lifted north through Mexico.

[northjaxpro]

Well, I can dream right lol.. I know this is very long range, and I hate looking beyond two weeks out, but the 6Z GFS shows a nice, deep upper trough across the Eastern CONUS, which brings polar air all the way down into the Deep South, just in time for Christmas. Also, the first major winter storm of the season for the Eastern CONUS is shown as well over Pennsylvania/Eastern Great Lakes region. The 540 thickness line in the GFS run below drops all the way into the northern peninsula. This type of pattern would drive cold air deep into the peninsula for the first time this season IF, and only IF this comes close to fruition. It is all about the NAO and whether or not we see it go to some type of negative phase.

Now, I am well aware that much will change and the GFS may kill this idea all together this far out. But, I for one would like it to be cold for a change this Christmas. Actually we need a freeze here in Jax to kill off these nagging mosquitoes for heavens sake!!!!

[northjaxpro]

Also, could see more record highs this weekend across the peninsula. Models are projecting max temps into the lower 80s here in Jax by Sunday. Unbelievable. Old Man Winter where are you?

This El Nino is heading in a direction to be one of the warmest ever for the winter in these parts if this continues. The state already just experienced its warmest Autumn ever!

[NDG]

I keep saying that this winter could end up being close to 82/83 winter for the gulf coast and FL Peninsula, which means an eventual more cooling down events and stormier Jan-March time frame.

[psyclone]

My hope is that we continue to "suffer" with above normal upper 70's/80's warmth. we've reached the time of the year that even record highs are nice...the days are too short and the sun too anemic to get hot. t-shirts and shorts in December...that's what I want:)

[Sanibel]

Still overcast here from that sub-jet.

[gatorcane]

Yeah that jet is something else, models keep trying to remove the moisture and clouds over Southern Florida but they are stubbornly hanging on. It does seem looping the SAT that the clouds may finally be on the way out tonight making for a nice Friday and weekend (finally) across Southern Florida.

[northjaxpro]

My hope is that we continue to "suffer" with above normal upper 70's/80's warmth. we've reached the time of the year that even record highs are nice...the days are too short and the sun too anemic to get hot. t-shirts and shorts in December...that's what I want:)

Yeah it is Chamber of Commerce weather for sure psyclone. I know you are loving this. But it also is too much of a good thing. Eventually, Old Man Winter will pay us a visit. I think we will see some changes in this pattern as we head into late December and into January. Stormy times are definitely ahead for us as the southern stream jet I believe will become active as we progress into January as well. We have reaped the dividends of the warm, nice side of El-Nino for months now, experiencing the warmest Autumn ever on record across the peninsula. As we turn the calendar into 2016, the wet, cool side of El Nino I believe will show up across the Southern tier of the CONUS and across Florida.

[gatorcane]

northjaxpro I do agree with you in that I think the pattern is going to abruptly change come end of month like you said.

We are definitely experiencing the good part of El Nino across most of Florida. Of course it has been rainy and downright dreary across Southern Florida for just about a week now with some sun finally breaking through yesterday and today, so I would say we are not on the good side of El Nino down here, though the bad side of El Nino (in this case a "Godzilla" El Nino) has the potential to hand Florida a much worse scenario as we head into the winter months

[northjaxpro]

northjaxpro I do agree with you in that I think the pattern is going to abruptly change come end of month like you said.

We are definitely experiencing the good part of El Nino across most of Florida. Of course it has been rainy and downright dreary across Southern Florida for just about a week now with some sun finally breaking through yesterday and today, so I would say we are not on the good side of El Nino down here, though the bad side of El Nino (in this case a "Godzilla" El Nino) has the potential to hand Florida a much worse scenario as we head into the winter months

Agreed. I definitely am anticipating very wet times ahead for the peninsula, and we may see even severe weather outbreaks during this meteorological winter season as well in this Super El Nino. It will be interesting.

[psyclone]

I'll be ready for the active weather to show up for sure. I do agree we should expect plenty of rain/svr wx potential with this super nino. We should enjoy the fair weather while it lasts...it's downright dry around Tampa Bay...rain would be welcome. all the rain last week stayed to our south.

[FireRat]

Impressive lightning show offshore SE Florida at this late hour (3 AM on 12/11). Interesting to note that I'm seeing this to my east while temps are in the upper 60s where I'm at. Kind of cool to be seeing this kind of stuff, which happens often in warm summer nights when temps are near 80.
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[NDG]

Impressive lightning show offshore SE Florida at this late hour (3 AM on 12/11). Interesting to note that I'm seeing this to my east while temps are in the upper 60s where I'm at. Kind of cool to be seeing this kind of stuff, which happens often in warm summer nights when temps are near 80.
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Since the storms were near shore and or offshore I am sure the temps there were much warmer plus this time of the year the atmosphere is colder than in the summer time so it does not take that much warm air at the surface to create instability.
But yet another impressive event for this time of the year that's for sure thanks to El Nino.

http://weather.rap.ucar.edu/radar/displ ... duration=3

[FireRat]

Thanks for the insight NDG!

[HURRICANELONNY]

A little off topic. But ever notice how the CPC models are so off every other week with NAO/AO. One week in advance going Neg. Then as it gets closer. Total opposite. Its like why look a week ahead. It's always wrong

pc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/ao.shtml

[NDG]

A little off topic. But ever notice how the CPC models are so off every other week with NAO/AO. One week in advance going Neg. Then as it gets closer. Total opposite. Its like why look a week ahead. It's always wrong

pc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/ao.shtml

When I used to live in Nola I remember a phrase that I never forgot, from Met David Bernard: "Always go with the trend"
The NAO & AO have persistently been positive for at least the last 2 months, it will take a lot for it to go negative.