Florida Weather

[boca]

I know we are in an El Nino.The weather is acting like a La Nina.We have been wet but why so warm.I dont see the temp going below 60 here in South FLorida anytime soon.I thought we were supposed to be cool.Im frustrated with this summer weather in December.The only way the weather will change is if the NAO goes negative which it probably wont do.

[NDG]

Like many say, not every El Niño is the same, the sypnotic pattern has a lot to do with temps during El Niño. Many thought that it was going to be a repeat of the last El Niño winter 09/10, but like I said earlier it was due to record breaking -AO along with a persistent negative -NAO and +PNA.
We will most likely see cooler wx as he head into January through March more often than not but don't look for record breaking cold wx that's for sure.
The same thing for La Niña winters, one thing for sure that we can say is that they are drier than average especially in Spring for FL but it does not mean that they are always warmer than average, take for example December '10, a La Niña winter FL saw it coldest December ever.

[northjaxpro]

Again, depending upon if we get a lot of sunshine this weekend, some record maximums may get approached over this weekend across the northern peninsula. Observing the data from the Tallahassee and Jacksonville WFOs, the record max temp for Saturday and Sunday across these forecast regions of the state are in the lower 80s. If we get enough full sunshine, the potential is there we could at least tie records. Unbelievable! Of course, highs in the low-mid 80s are expected farther down state, especially across interior areas of the central peninsula.

Chamber of Commerce folks and the mosquitoes are really loving this weather in mid December. Actually, just finished mowing the grass. Usually, I never have to worry about mowing the yard once we get past Thanksgiving because we normally would have had a frost and freeze long by now.......

[NDG]

Plenty of sunshine so far across the State, already low 80s across central and southern FL so record highs for the northern part of the state look like a good bet.

[Sanibel]

Blue sky, bright sun. Warm enough to need a fan here. 84*



Record Rain Devastates Florida Farmers


http://www.southdadenewsleader.com/news ... 707e7.html

[TheStormExpert]

Still awaiting sub-60* temps here in South Florida.

West Palm Beach's latest date of the first sub-60 degree temperature of the fall is Dec. 12, 1994. This record will fall by day's end.

[TheStormExpert]

The 18z GFS has become much more bullish with next weekends cold front(likely too bullish IMO). It now brings 40's well down into S. Florida with upper 30's into C. Florida, N. Florida and the Panhandle would see a widespread freeze if this were to verify, likely the first freeze for many locations up there including Jacksonville possibly.

Now the 12z Euro was less enthusiastic with this cold front(more likely solution IMO). Hard to tell what it has in mind in terms of temperatures next weekend as the low resolution version only give you 850mb temps.

18z GFS 500mb. Heights Hr. 186



12z Euro 500mb. Heights Hr. 192



18z GFS Surface Temps. Heights Hr. 186



12z Euro 850mb. Temps. Hr. 192

[psyclone]

forecasts around here (including the nws) are bullish on a big chilldown next weekend.

[northjaxpro]

Well, we could see an advective freeze on Saturday morning (Dec.19) as northerly winds will funnel right down into the area. Latest 6Z GFS run shows a decent 1033 mb Polar High sitting over Mississippi on Saturday morning. Good bet we will see low-mid 30s across the northern peninsula and we may finally see the first freeze of the season, especially the Suwanee River Valley and Big Bend regions. The brunt of the coldest air will stay just north of the peninsula as the base of the upper trough looks to be over South Carolina on next Saturday morning this particular run as the lowest thicknesses are indicated right over that region.

However, the High axis does not look to move directly over the Florida peninsula as it will stay north of us as it shifts east/northeast toward the Mid -Atlantic region, keeping the flow north to northeast after Saturday. Also, 500 mb heights also begin to rise beginning next Sunday as the upper trough shifts off the Eastern U.S. seaboard. So no frost or freeze will be likely here in Jax on next Sunday morning if the GFS forecast runs come to fruition because of onshore flow. Interior areas in North Florida may see a light freeze on next Sunday morning.

The rest of the peninsula we see a decent cool down as well next weekend as minimums will get well down into the 40s across most of the central peninsula, with upper 30s possible down into the Nature Coast region (Brooksville) to a line from Ocala to Daytona. South Florida will probably see mins down into the mid-upper 40s in the interior areas just north and west of Lake Okeechobee under this set up, and low-mid 50s across the remainder of the southern peninsula, with lower 60s in the Keys by next weekend.

Well, at least we will finally get some decent cool weather down here next weekend folks!!!!

[TheStormExpert]

The latest 00z Run of the Euro shows the coldest anomalies centered over NE Florida, Eastern Georgia, and Southeast South Carolina. It too has become more bullish with this cold front, being now more bullish than the GFS.

[northjaxpro]

Yeah, I saw the EURO runs earlier. I am inclined to side with the GFS at this time. One big reason I am siding with the GFS currently is that remember, there is absolutely no snowpack whatsoever across the Eastern CONUS because of this extremely warm El Nino. I think that factor alone may not allow for such cold bias to be realized, like that in which the EURO is showing at this time. It also could be possible that the GFS may be a bit too cold as well. We will see as we get closer to next weekend's event.

[northjaxpro]

Sarasota apparently was the only Florida locale which at least tied a record max for the date yesterday. They reached 85 degrees which tied the record for yesterday.

I think we may see a better chance of more records approached across the peninsula today and tomorrow as increased south to southwest flow will induce warm advection across the region in advance of a weakening cold front approaching from the west into tomorrow.

[Sanibel]

Overcast probably nixed that chance for a record here.


Did Palm Beach break the latest occurring sub-60* record?

[NDG]

Finally below average temps for next weekend heading for FL, looks like 30s for lows for north FL, 40s for central FL and 50s for S FL for both Saturday and Sunday mornings. But it will be a quick visit as temps return back to average and eventual above average Christmas week as both the NAO and AO head back to the positive regime to end the month.

[northjaxpro]

Well, I hope we in the northern peninsula will finally get the first freeze of the season at least from this brief cool down this upcoming weekend. I keep harping on it I know, but the mosquitoes are absolutely miserable. I was eaten alive by them mowing the lawn a couple of days ago. Heck, the repellent sprays did not help that much that day.

Dealing with mosquitoes and mowing the grass, two things I never generally worry about around here approaching Christmas. Thanks El Nino. You have really held Old Man Winter prisoner this season for sure!!

[psyclone]

the 6-10 day outlook shows normal temps for the southeast. that likely means the slightly below normal temps expected this weekend will be offset by slightly above normal temps before the end of the 10th day. meanwhile the 8-14 day outlook shows above normal temps...so it's very likely that this cool spell will be of short duration with a quick return to above normal temps.

[Bocadude85]

Finally below average temps for next weekend heading for FL, looks like 30s for lows for north FL, 40s for central FL and 50s for S FL for both Saturday and Sunday mornings. But it will be a quick visit as temps return back to average and eventual above average Christmas week as both the NAO and AO head back to the positive regime to end the month.

As of right now the NWS Miami is forecasting lows 60's for lows for this coming weekend. Here is the forecast for my area. Though highs will only be in the low 70's. I am looking forward to this cool down.

http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lon=-80.09620095214845&lat=26.284645587077918#.Vm8F3NIrLs0

[Sanibel]

They should smash the record late sub-60 reading in West Palm Beach if their prediction holds true:


http://www.weather.com/weather/tenday/l/USFL0512:1:US

[gatorcane]

Yeah Sanibel, besides a couple of days early Thanksgiving week of just below normal temps, this fall has been pretty much above normal the entire time. We will get a "cool" shot this weekend where we will actually see just below normal temps as NDG pointed out but it is brief then back to above normal temps for the foreseeable future possibly into Christmas. Where is winter?

[psyclone]

my nws forecast shows a high of just 62 on Saturday (that's going to feel frigid) but we're already back to 76 (above normal) by Monday so the near term forecast is now validating what could previously be interpreted from the 6-10 and 8-14 day outlooks...this cooldown is destined to be as brief as it is abrupt...about 2 days so those looking forward to the chill...don't blink..