Texas Summer 2018

[Ntxw]

I posted this in the Texas Winter thread, and I know this is anecdotal, but I live in a heavy tree-lined neighborhood, and we're seeing quite a bit of deciduous trees dropping leaves already. Anyone else seeing this?

Where are you located SoupBone? I haven't notice any around here but I'm curious some leaves have fallen where you are but not changed colors. Maybe drought effecting?

[Yukon Cornelius]

I posted this in the Texas Winter thread, and I know this is anecdotal, but I live in a heavy tree-lined neighborhood, and we're seeing quite a bit of deciduous trees dropping leaves already. Anyone else seeing this?

My mulberries are starting to, but they are notorious for dropping leaves extremely early. Trees will sometimes go into forced dormancy for survival if conditions aren't ideal, such as lack of water from drought or extreme heat.

[gboudx]

Leaves falling this early violate the natural process which takes place in the Fall, since trees use the amount of sunlight to determine when it's time to drop the leaves. Most likely its stress related by drought, insects, disease, or some combination of all 3. I haven't seen this in my area.

[CaptinCrunch]

Cottonwoods will drop leaves like it was mid Fall during droughts, even during prolong heat spells they will retain their leaves long as there is occasional rains. My Cottonwood is so stressed by the heat and lack of rain that it's been dropping leaves like it was mid October. Matter of fact my backyard besides looking like mid January (Dead) is carpeted by leaves.

[SoupBone]

I posted this in the Texas Winter thread, and I know this is anecdotal, but I live in a heavy tree-lined neighborhood, and we're seeing quite a bit of deciduous trees dropping leaves already. Anyone else seeing this?

Where are you located SoupBone? I haven't notice any around here but I'm curious some leaves have fallen where you are but not changed colors. Maybe drought effecting?

You know, I'd normally go with occam's razor and say that it's drought related, but my neighborhood is very heavily stocked with sprinkler systems in almost every single yard. People are running them so much it's affecting our water pressure. I'm in NW Houston. It has a very fall-like feel to it, which is strange.

[weatherdude1108]

I posted this in the Texas Winter thread, and I know this is anecdotal, but I live in a heavy tree-lined neighborhood, and we're seeing quite a bit of deciduous trees dropping leaves already. Anyone else seeing this?

Where are you located SoupBone? I haven't notice any around here but I'm curious some leaves have fallen where you are but not changed colors. Maybe drought effecting?

You know, I'd normally go with occam's razor and say that it's drought related, but my neighborhood is very heavily stocked with sprinkler systems in almost every single yard. People are running them so much it's affecting our water pressure. I'm in NW Houston. It has a very fall-like feel to it, which is strange.

Over the last week, I have noticed Elm trees dropping leaves in my backyard, and at work. My yard gets watered with sprinkler with the grass and bushes, but the Elms at work are in a vacant wooded lot with no water. I'm sure it's heat/water stress, which turns on a system to shed leaves to reduce photosynthesis, so they don't have to work as hard. Survival mechanism I am guessing. Unless the trees can sense the subtle shortening of days this early too(?). Could be a combination of heat stress and shorter days, inducing leaf drop.

My Crepe Myrtles on the other hand are thriving, flowering like crazy. They love the heat. No leaf drop there, just the usual lots of flower pedals dropping throughout Summer.

[CaptinCrunch]

Last part of this mornings AFD NWS FTW

Next week, the next upper level ridge builds in from the east
resulting in a return of hot and mostly dry conditions. Triple
digit afternoon temperatures will return along with warm overnight
lows. Heat index values near or over 105 degrees will be possible
as some low level moisture return will yield more humid
conditions, in particular east of I-35. At this point, there
isn`t any glimmer of hope for beneficial rain in the next 7-10
days.

JLDunn

[FunNestlé]

We could discuss this forever but the avg center of high pressure at the 500 MB level for the summer months is near the El Paso. With a 5H near El Paso, a trough is likely in the East. Relatively.

The center of the high is actually more towards Four Corners, but its expansiveness spreads large range subsidence. The frequency of troughing over the Eastern US shapes the high in a way that keeps a "SE nose" into Texas, maintaining the rain-free conditions.

It's the weather though. Sooooo many factors at play. It's never just ONE thing that creates a major system or characteristic for the atmosphere.

Never said it was. But at the same time, some factors clearly are more important than others.

[Ralph's Weather]

My elms are dropping leaves. I assumed drought related. My young crepe myrtles (couple years old have to be watered a couple times a week or they will drop leaves. The big crepe myrtles love this weather though. My soil is extremely sandy so it is hard to keep moisture in it. I have lost my St Augustine grass because it is in an area of the yard where my sprinklers are not working. I was sure hoping for some rain this week, but looks like all we got was a few minutes of light rain.

[gboudx]

Unless the trees can sense the subtle shortening of days this early too(?).

Trees certainly sense the shortening of days, in a natural way. The way this was explained to me, imagine the trees had a hour glass, each day the hour glass would be flipped over and sand would start dropping into the bottom chamber. This continues all day until night. In summer, the sand is all in the bottom chamber. As days get shorter, eventually some sand is left in the top chamber at night fall. It's at this point the trees start the process of severing the leaves. Photoperiodism is the mechanism by which the process of senescence starts in Autumn.

[Ralph's Weather]

Sure looking forward to the mid 60s tomorrow morning. It will be interesting to see if any spots in NE TX make it below 60.

[weatherdude1108]

I was asked by a couple cohorts (including supervisor) where the rain is. This is the update I gave.

"Not looking good for this part of the area, unfortunately. :/
The hill country near Burnet got some nice totals though! They need it worse than we do, so not all bad."

000
FXUS64 KEWX 311323
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
823 AM CDT Tue Jul 31 2018

.UPDATE...
Decent amount of precipitation on the radar this morning. The complex
of showers and storms is pushing south of Del Rio with the heaviest
rain currently over Brackettville and the KDFX radar. Other pop up
showers and a few storms have been ongoing across the Hill Country
this morning. This activity tends to pulse up and then quickly die
off. Rainfall amounts so far today have ranged from 0.50 to 1.5
inches in parts of Burnet County, with some higher totals across the
Rio Grande Plains. There was a total of 2.20 from a CoCoRaHS gauge in
southwest Edwards county this morning.

The main update to the forecast is to reconfigure the PoPs to focus
chances out west through the morning hours. Isolated showers, and
maybe a storm or two could continue to pop up across the Hill
Country and Austin Metro area through the morning, but chances of
some decent rain are not looking all that good. Through the afternoon
hours some of the high resolution models do show more of this popcorn
variety showers and storms across much of the area so will continue
with mostly slight chance PoPs through the afternoon hours before all
of the precipitation clears the area overnight tonight. With the
cloudcover this morning temperatures today should be kept a few
degrees cooler than we have seen with most of the area topping out in
the mid 90s, around seasonal normals.

&&"

[Haris]

Yeah zero drops from the useless front . but the severe drought areas W got a good soaking. Oh well

[South Texas Storms]

Severe Warning for Houston and it's pitch black at the office. What a sight for sore eyes. Wish areas west of here could've gotten some from this system.

[FunNestlé]

Yeah zero drops from the useless front . but the severe drought areas W got a good soaking. Oh well

The cold fronts singlehandedly ruin the climate of Texas. Reduce summer rain to intermittence at best, while driving down deep cold for winter.

[Ntxw]

Yeah zero drops from the useless front . but the severe drought areas W got a good soaking. Oh well

The cold fronts singlehandedly ruin the climate of Texas. Reduce summer rain to intermittence at best, while driving down deep cold for winter.

So let me get this straight, you claim the ridge pattern is not 'normal' but at the same time the trough pattern is also bad? So what is normal?

[Cpv17]

Severe Warning for Houston and it's pitch black at the office. What a sight for sore eyes. Wish areas west of here could've gotten some from this system.

Areas southwest of Houston are getting it now. It’s been raining here in Wharton for almost an hour now. Nothing heavy, but a good steady rain. We’re almost up to an inch now. First rain we’ve had since that 6” of rain in June from that tropical wave.

[weatherdude1108]

Severe Warning for Houston and it's pitch black at the office. What a sight for sore eyes. Wish areas west of here could've gotten some from this system.

Areas southwest of Houston are getting it now. It’s been raining here in Wharton for almost an hour now. Nothing heavy, but a good steady rain. We’re almost up to an inch now. First rain we’ve had since that 6” of rain in June from that tropical wave.

(sigh)

[weatherdude1108]

Even our local weather office mets are hoping for any rain chance we can get. Illustrates how dry it is around here, with fires near Burnet, etc. They got an inch of rain in Burnet today, but zero rain fell on the fire near Burnet. Cruel irony.

970
FXUS64 KEWX 311954
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
254 PM CDT Tue Jul 31 2018

.SHORT TERM (Tonight through Wednesday Night)...
The front has made it through the area with everyone seeing north
winds this afternoon. While some gusts are possible to 15 to 20 mph
winds will generally be around 10 to 15 mph. Skies should continue to
gradually clear through the late afternoon and evening hours as drier
air tries to make it down into Central Texas. Any precipitation
through the afternoon and evening hours will be scattered across the
Rio Grande Plains and areas east of Interstate 35. As of 2:30 parts
of Lavaca County are seeing a few isolated thunderstorms with some
showers ongoing across Lee County.

By late tonight rain chances should end across South Central Texas
and skies will continue to clear leading to a partly cloudy to mostly
clear night with temperatures dropping into the mid 60s across the
Hill Country with low to mid-70s elsewhere. Lows for tonight and
Wednesday night will be near seasonal normals and fairly nice.

Other than a few seasonable nights this front will do little to cool
temperatures as highs on Wednesday will return to running a few
degrees above normal under sunny skies. Dewpoints for Wednesday will
remain in the 50s with the north and northeast wind maintaining some
drier air which will keep heat index values down.

&&

.LONG TERM (Thursday through Tuesday)...
High pressure will slide back east beginning Wednesday into Thursday.
The GFS and NAM show an upper level disturbance rotating around the
ridge late on Thursday and into Friday. While the NAM brings shows
some precipitation across the Edwards Plateau the GFS keeps the
precipitation across far west Texas. The ECMWF does not show this
feature and builds the ridge farther east for Thursday and Friday.
Will lean towards the ECMWF and keep the forecast dry into the
weekend across South Central Texas. By Friday afternoon southerly
flow at the surface returns allowing for moisture to begin to
increase across the area. This is further aided by an inverted trough
or weakness in the ridge that develops across South Texas into the
weekend. This will switch winds in the mid-levels around to the
southeast as well. This inverted trough and southerly flow will allow
for enhanced sea breeze for Saturday into the weekend. This means
that the best chances for rain will remain along the Coastal Plains
but a few isolated showers or thunderstorms could make it up towards
the I-35 corridor each afternoon through the weekend. Any weekend
plans should not be a washout by any means due to the isolated nature
of this activity. The ridge looks to flatten across the four corners
region on Monday before strengthening again into the middle of next
week. Due to the increased moisture beginning on Friday high
temperatures each afternoon should remain closer to normal in the
upper 90s rather than topping the century mark. While these rain
chances from the sea breeze next week are only slight chance and
chance, and do not guarantee rain on everyone by any means, we will
certainly take any and all rain chances that we can get at this point
in the summer!

[FunNestlé]

So let me get this straight, you claim the ridge pattern is not 'normal' but at the same time the trough pattern is also bad? So what is normal?

The proper summer pattern would be what was present earlier this month during 4th of July: where the westerlies remain locked up in Canada like they should be, allowing the ridge to settle north and expand longitudinally, bringing tropical easterly disturbances into Texas along the underside.

On the other hand, these type of troughing patterns, with the corresponding subsident ridge across Texas and the SW, are basically just fall/spring/winter patterns carrying into summer. Unless they are super broad, and/or are centered over Texas, these troughing patterns just aren't worth it for summer rain across the state.