Texas Fall 2018

[Brent]

I definitely don't see a dull pattern anytime soon... I mean past years the heat wasn't even over by now...

I'm also not at all convinced by the models only showing a very quick hitting rain

and yeah I'd look towards Halloween for a bigger cold front

but wasn't today stunning after all the rain???

[Cpv17]

So when should we expect our next significant cool down?

The weekend before Halloween.

Before that, it turns out it's not Vicente that is re-curving, it is Willa since a TC formed near Guatamala before 99E (now Willa) but short lived. Got to watch that Hurricane as well as remnants of Vicente for rains. Models can be poor handling the qpf with these systems once they move into the low observed areas of NW Mexico. But I do expect flood watches to once again be put up for much of the state that have already been saturated.

This will only makes things worse for the lakes and rivers. Somebody will get a foot of rain out of this, I'd bet a hedge fund on it.

The Euro isn’t very enthusiastic about qpf totals except for out in the Gulf.

[Ralph's Weather]

So when should we expect our next significant cool down?

The weekend before Halloween.

Before that, it turns out it's not Vicente that is re-curving, it is Willa since a TC formed near Guatamala before 99E (now Willa) but short lived. Got to watch that Hurricane as well as remnants of Vicente for rains. Models can be poor handling the qpf with these systems once they move into the low observed areas of NW Mexico. But I do expect flood watches to once again be put up for much of the state that have already been saturated.

This will only makes things worse for the lakes and rivers. Somebody will get a foot of rain out of this, I'd bet a hedge fund on it.

The Euro isn’t very enthusiastic about qpf totals except for out in the Gulf.

This is a situation where going on past history isnthe right call. We will be affected by three low pressure systems all about the same time next week (Vicente, Willa and a western trough). This will bring very heavy rain. These will combine to form a Gulf low which will be the first Nor Easter of the season most likely. Our next cold shot follows this set of systems. Could bring our first frost/freeze threat.

[Ntxw]

The weekend before Halloween.

Before that, it turns out it's not Vicente that is re-curving, it is Willa since a TC formed near Guatamala before 99E (now Willa) but short lived. Got to watch that Hurricane as well as remnants of Vicente for rains. Models can be poor handling the qpf with these systems once they move into the low observed areas of NW Mexico. But I do expect flood watches to once again be put up for much of the state that have already been saturated.

This will only makes things worse for the lakes and rivers. Somebody will get a foot of rain out of this, I'd bet a hedge fund on it.

The Euro isn’t very enthusiastic about qpf totals except for out in the Gulf.

This is a situation where going on past history isnthe right call. We will be affected by three low pressure systems all about the same time next week (Vicente, Willa and a western trough). This will bring very heavy rain. These will combine to form a Gulf low which will be the first Nor Easter of the season most likely. Our next cold shot follows this set of systems. Could bring our first frost/freeze threat.

There is also an upper trough/low near the baja in the mix. The same trough causing Willa to hit. Messy set up and I expect qpf placements to shift.

[Haris]

Never ever thought I'd ever say this during my life on planet earth but I AM LOVING THE SUNSHINE!

lol! Who's with me?

[South Texas Storms]

Never ever thought I'd ever say this during my life on planet earth but I AM LOVING THE SUNSHINE!

lol! Who's with me?

Sure it's nice for a few days. But I'm ready for the rain to return tomorrow!

[Brent]

Never ever thought I'd ever say this during my life on planet earth but I AM LOVING THE SUNSHINE!

lol! Who's with me?

Yeah have to admit I've been kind of enjoying it too

[Cpv17]

Never ever thought I'd ever say this during my life on planet earth but I AM LOVING THE SUNSHINE!

lol! Who's with me?

Sure it's nice for a few days. But I'm ready for the rain to return tomorrow!

I’m expecting this next rain event to cover areas much further south and east than the last one.

[StruThiO]

 https://twitter.com/NWSWPC/status/1054114265911705600

[Cpv17]

I wonder what’s keeping the models so conservative with qpf totals. Seems like a major EPAC hurricane recurving into Texas would produce a lot more than 1-3” which is what the models are basically showing.

[Haris]

Latest GFS tonight spitting out very impressive QPF for SCTX over next 72 hours

[Haris]

I wonder what’s keeping the models so conservative with qpf totals. Seems like a major EPAC hurricane recurving into Texas would produce a lot more than 1-3” which is what the models are basically showing.

I agree too... I'm not sure though

[Cpv17]

I wonder what’s keeping the models so conservative with qpf totals. Seems like a major EPAC hurricane recurving into Texas would produce a lot more than 1-3” which is what the models are basically showing.

I agree too... I'm not sure though

This is bound to produce a whole lot of rain for someone. I mean, wow, look at that strength and track of Willa

[Brent]

I wonder what’s keeping the models so conservative with qpf totals. Seems like a major EPAC hurricane recurving into Texas would produce a lot more than 1-3” which is what the models are basically showing.

Yeah i dont really understand especially after what has already happened in the last month

[weatherdude1108]

Never ever thought I'd ever say this during my life on planet earth but I AM LOVING THE SUNSHINE!

lol! Who's with me?

Oh yeah, my whole family and friends from church were totally loving the sunshine. My daughter and I went to the playground and had to dodge mud and standing water, but it felt great! Felt like the mountains in Summertime. But after several days of it, I'd be ready for it to rain again, maybe not heavy. But keep it moist. But we also need to keep mold and fungus at bay. Hard balance.

[Ntxw]

Willa has become a beast. It will be a Cat 5 designation by morning, satellite representation already looks it now. Very intense system, likely the strongest of the year this side of the globe. Rain from the system will effect just about everybody. DFW only needs a couple of inches to make it wettest October on record and take us to 50" for the year of rain to date.

[Brent]

the 0z GFS is real close to some North Texas/DFW snow the weekend after Halloween

Halloween is into the 80s(we'll see about that ) and then temps plunge

[weatherdude1108]

More record low maxima temps?

Several locations across South Central Texas may tie or set record
low maximum temperatures today. The records for the four South
Central Texas climate sites are listed below.

LOCATION RECORD LO MAX YEAR
Austin Bergstrom 64 1997
Austin Mabry 60 1984
San Antonio 60 1984
Del Rio 65 1984

https://forecast.weather.gov/product.ph ... glossary=0

[weatherdude1108]

My wife got an email this morning from her school district and showed me. Then I heard on radio, and got to work and saw this. I had that thought cross my mind during the flooding and how it would effect the water quality. Sure enough.

I'm certain it's just a default precaution when they shut down a plant. They issue the boil water notice until they test it again once it's running through the system. Meanwhile, people freak out buying water emptying shelves like it's the zombie apocalypse.smh

I brought a thermos of water from home,;) since my area is not effected.

[gboudx]

I'm in the Arborteum area and also in Leander today and tomorrow. Same deal with boiling water.