STORM2K

Anyone else concerned with the possibility of ridging pushing Dorian into the Central GoM? Is that cool front going to hang around a while?

Portastorm wrote::uarrow:

Meanwhile here in south central Texas, we are experiencing one of the hottest Augusts on record. TV mets are saying it is ranking at 4th or 5th hottest ever. We'll see when the official NWS data comes out. But the airport is averaging about 3.3 degrees above normal for the mean alone while Camp Mabry (KATT) is at 4.3 above normal. Granted the latter experiences the urban heat island effect but still ... 3-4 degrees above normal for the mean is a lot.

At Camp Mabry, 22 of the 25 days this month have had 100 degrees or higher. At the airport, 17 of 25 days. Today and tomorrow are likely 100+ days at both sites so it'll continue. It's been brutal down here.

The question is how long will it last? and if tropical systems continue to move east of us.. well not much to say. My grass is orange.. no point in watering either

hriverajr wrote:

Portastorm wrote::uarrow:

Meanwhile here in south central Texas, we are experiencing one of the hottest Augusts on record. TV mets are saying it is ranking at 4th or 5th hottest ever. We'll see when the official NWS data comes out. But the airport is averaging about 3.3 degrees above normal for the mean alone while Camp Mabry (KATT) is at 4.3 above normal. Granted the latter experiences the urban heat island effect but still ... 3-4 degrees above normal for the mean is a lot.

At Camp Mabry, 22 of the 25 days this month have had 100 degrees or higher. At the airport, 17 of 25 days. Today and tomorrow are likely 100+ days at both sites so it'll continue. It's been brutal down here.

The question is how long will it last? and if tropical systems continue to move east of us.. well not much to say. My grass is orange.. no point in watering either

It's been downright depressing down here since mid-July or so. I was hoping that really wet and coolish Spring to June would give us minimal 100-degree temps and a near to below average Summer.
Boy was I wrong! I have lost my faith in wet springs or other periods effecting Summer temperatures. It apparently doesn't matter one way or the other, wet or dry. If wet, it's a steam bath for a few weeks after rain stops, then it turns to oven. It rains an inch, and it's back steam bath for several days, rinse, repeat. The weather is getting hotter.

Well, Camp Mabry has a record high of 107, set in 1924. That was pre-Industrial Revolution times. Still depressing.lol

000
FXUS64 KEWX 261947
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
247 PM CDT Mon Aug 26 2019

.SHORT TERM (Tonight through Tuesday Night)...
Heat Advisory conditions have developed across much of our area this
afternoon. They will continue into the early evening hours. Expect
they will drop out of criteria by sunset and maintained the Advisory
through 8 PM CDT. Del Rio already has broken their record high
temperature for today. Record highs may also be tied or broken at
the other climate sites. See the CLIMATE section below for the
current records.

The Subtropical Ridge remains centered over the Southwestern states
and extends into Texas with a slight weakening trend indicated as a
cold front drops south through Northern and Western Texas. The
thermal ridge weakens a little with slightly lower high temperatures
on Tuesday. However, another Heat Advisory is likely on Tuesday for
much of our area as dewpoints will continue to be rather stubborn in
mixing out keeping Heat Index values elevated. Will not extend
current Advisory as there will be some relief from the heat tonight
and let later shifts issue one for Tuesday. Late Tuesday night, the
front drops into Central Texas where isolated showers and
thunderstorms are possible due to moisture convergence and upward
forcing along the front.

&&

.LONG TERM (Wednesday through Monday)...
The Subtropical Ridge remains centered over the Southwestern states
though weakens further over Texas late week into the Labor Day
weekend. The front may drift into the northern Hill Country and
possibly into the Austin metro area on Wednesday. With a weakened
ridge and less subsidence, the seabreeze may become more active. Will
maintain the slight chance POPs for much of our area for Wednesday
through Thursday. The thermal ridge weakens further allowing an
additional drop in temperatures to closer to normal, though still
above. Although the front retreats to the north by Friday, broad
surface high pressure builds into our areas this weekend into early
next week as a weak surface low drifts west across the Gulf of
Mexico. Little changes in temperature are expected.

&&

.CLIMATE...

Record Highs for August 26
--------------------------
Austin Mabry 107 in 1924
Austin Bergstrom 103 in 2009
Del Rio 103 in 2002
San Antonio 102 in 2006

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry 79 102 78 100 77 / 0 0 10 20 20
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 77 100 76 98 76 / 0 0 10 20 20
New Braunfels Muni Airport 77 100 76 97 74 / 0 0 - 20 20
Burnet Muni Airport 77 99 76 96 74 / 0 - 20 20 20
Del Rio Intl Airport 80 104 79 101 77 / 0 0 0 10 20
Georgetown Muni Airport 78 101 77 99 77 / 0 10 20 20 20
Hondo Muni Airport 77 103 76 100 74 / 0 0 - 10 20
San Marcos Muni Airport 77 100 76 98 75 / 0 0 - 20 20
La Grange - Fayette Regional 78 101 77 99 77 / 0 0 - 20 20
San Antonio Intl Airport 79 100 78 99 77 / 0 0 - 20 20
Stinson Muni Airport 79 103 78 100 77 / 0 0 0 20 20

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for Atascosa-Bandera-
Bastrop-Bexar-Blanco-Burnet-Caldwell-Comal-De Witt-Dimmit-Edwards-
Fayette-Frio-Gillespie-Gonzales-Guadalupe-Hays-Karnes-Kendall-Kerr-
Kinney-Lavaca-Lee-Llano-Maverick-Medina-Real-Travis-Uvalde-Val
Verde-Williamson-Wilson-Zavala.

&&

Looking for a pattern change. I'm trying!


Bob Rose:

The hot, August weather pattern certainly hasn't gone away yet. Monday's weather maps showed a broad, persistent ridge of high pressure stretching from the West Coast to the western Gulf of Mexico. The ridge was centered over Far West Texas. Strong subsidence around the center of the ridge is expected to produce very hot temperatures across all of Texas this afternoon. For some locations, today's readings may rival the hottest temperatures recorded so far this summer. The very hottest readings are forecast to occur across the South Plains and the Permian Basin, where temperatures look to exceed 110 degrees. The temperature at Midland is forecast to reach 113 degrees this afternoon. If this occurs, it will be Midland's 3rd hottest temperature ever recorded.

Weather conditions will be sunny, dry and very hot across the Hill Country, Central Texas and coastal regions this afternoon. High temperatures are forecast to be near 100-105 degrees across the Hill Country and Central Texas regions and near 98-100 degrees across the middle Texas coast. The National Weather Service has posted a heat advisory for the entire region, where heat index readings are predicted to reach as high as 110-112 degrees. Fortunately, there will be a south breeze with speeds of 10-15 mph this afternoon and overnight.

Forecasts call for the ridge of high pressure to remain over our region throughout the week. However, the center of the ridge is predicted to shift more to the west Tuesday and Wednesday when a trough of low pressure tracks east across the central Plains states. A cold front associated with the trough is forecast to sink south to the Red River Tuesday morning, then sag a south into North Central Texas Tuesday evening into Wednesday morning. The front has some potential to push through the northern Hill Country and stall across Central Texas on Wednesday. In advance of the cold front, weather conditions will likely stay sunny and very hot Tuesday. High temperatures are forecast to be near 100-103 degrees across the Hill Country and Central Texas regions and be between 98 and 100 degrees across the coastal plains. For Wednesday and Thursday, high temperatures are forecast to be close to 100 degrees across the Hill Country and Central Texas regions and in the upper 90s across the coastal plains.

There will be a slight chance for rain and thunderstorms across the northern Hill Country Tuesday night and across the entire region Wednesday through Thursday as the cold front sags south out of North Texas and stalls across the central part to the state. The probability for rain will generally be around 20 percent. For locations that do happen to see rain, totals should average around a quarter inch, with a few isolated totals to near 1 inch possible.

A very typical late summer weather pattern is forecast Friday, this upcoming weekend and Labor Day as our region remains under the influence of a broad high pressure ridge in the upper atmosphere. The center of the ridge is forecast to generally set up across the Four Corners region and the southern Rockies. The ridge is forecast to be somewhat weaker than what we are seeing early this week. No rain is forecast, although there a few isolated showers will be possible each day across the coastal plains region. High temperatures across the Hill Country and Central Texas regions are forecast to be near 98-100 degrees. Coastal areas should see high temperatures in the mid-90s.

Looking ahead to next week, medium-range forecast solutions are not calling for any notable change in pattern. A broad ridge of high pressure is forecast to remain in place over the southern and south central US. The ridge is again forecast to be a little weaker, compared to the strength of this week's ridge. Overall, weather conditions look to be dry. There is some thought a weak tropical wave may push inland over southern Texas around the middle of the week. This system may pull some tropical moisture inland, possibly resulting in the development of a few scattered rain showers. Aside from this feature, conditions look to stay dry. High temperatures next week are forecast to generally be in the upper 90s. Long-range forecasts do not suggest any significant change in the temperature pattern through the first 10 days of September.

Are you kidding me? 90L can’t stall out right before the coast two times in a row can it?

I'm sick of this Summer! maybe I'm just getting old, but this has felt like one of the worst Summer's of my life even though its been fairly mild compared to the norm here in North Texas.

Sick of it....... Bring the cold.....

93/82 at Galveston today, good for a 116ºF heat index. Oof.

High for DFW today is 102. Storms are firing in Oklahoma marking the weak front. Highs next couple of days in N Texas will be around 90.

Hoping today marks the end of 100s at DFW for 2019(not yet for the southern tier of the state) as climo now pushes for less.

weatherdude1108 wrote:Well, Camp Mabry has a record high of 107, set in 1924. That was pre-Industrial Revolution times. Still depressing.lol

The Industrial Revolution began in the early 1800s with consensus that there were two peak periods called the 1st and 2nd Industrial Revolutions. The 2nd ended around 1914.

We are in the midst of a flash drought and heatwave. These events are unfortunately becoming more frequent and more severe. It doesn't matter how much rain falls earlier in the year, just look at 2015 as an example where we had tons of rain in the spring but had a forest fire in Bastrop County by the end of the summer. More evaporation is occurring nowadays and that trend will continue. If you think summer is bad now, just wait another decade and we will be seeing temps start to approach the 120 degree mark. By that statement what I mean is that records will break again and again higher and higher as the years go by. It won't be long stretches but there will be a cow oc days here and there that will push to 110 and up.


Glad we got some nice rain Saturday but it wasn't enough, certainly not enough for any long term relief.

00z 3k NAM looks good for DFW, the 00z FWD sounding shows over 4,000 CAPE but does have a decent cap in place

bubba hotep wrote:00z 3k NAM looks good for DFW, the 00z FWD sounding shows over 4,000 CAPE but does have a decent cap in place

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam3km/2019082700/nam3km_apcpn_scus_6.png

here's hoping because the HRRR pretty much blanks the metro for the first round

Big cluster headed south for the morning commute. Looks impressive with a lot of lightning. Bring it baby!!!!

Rain, change, FALL is on the way!

Let us be rid of this WICKED EVIL that is Summer.

Unfortunately not for us in SW Texas .....

hriverajr wrote:Unfortunately not for us in SW Texas .....

Maybe we'll get our "fall" by October. Man, I feel for you ... I saw that Del Rio hit 109 yesterday easily setting a new record. Ugh.

I'd have to say that this August has been the worst I have experienced in Austin outside of 2011. And I've lived here for 35 years.

hriverajr wrote:Unfortunately not for us in SW Texas .....

Texas is so big, I have to look at people's locations when they post. Seeing the posters in Dallas/Ft Worth talk about lower dew points, etc. makes me upset.

JDawg512 wrote:

weatherdude1108 wrote:Well, Camp Mabry has a record high of 107, set in 1924. That was pre-Industrial Revolution times. Still depressing.lol

The Industrial Revolution began in the early 1800s with consensus that there were two peak periods called the 1st and 2nd Industrial Revolutions. The 2nd ended around 1914.

We are in the midst of a flash drought and heatwave. These events are unfortunately becoming more frequent and more severe. It doesn't matter how much rain falls earlier in the year, just look at 2015 as an example where we had tons of rain in the spring but had a forest fire in Bastrop County by the end of the summer. More evaporation is occurring nowadays and that trend will continue. If you think summer is bad now, just wait another decade and we will be seeing temps start to approach the 120 degree mark. By that statement what I mean is that records will break again and again higher and higher as the years go by. It won't be long stretches but there will be a cow oc days here and there that will push to 110 and up.


Glad we got some nice rain Saturday but it wasn't enough, certainly not enough for any long term relief.

Yeah, we got rain, but not enough to even make a TRACE in the gauge. Forgive me with my Industrial Revolution dates. Sorry I was thinking that as far as climate impact, wasn't it around the 1920s when factories started going full speed ahead with their emissions, which marked the start of excessive gasses/particulates? I'm honestly not sure(?). Then there are random volcanic eruptions around the globe which put out more C02 in one eruption than man puts out in an entire year or something like that. You probably know more about it. That's why I like this forum. So much knowledge around here, seriously!

It does depress me if that comes to fruition (110-120-degree temps more common), which looks more probable with each passing year. Lived here in Texas since 1976, and it has always been hot, but not like this. We had our 100+-degree heat waves in the 1980s for several days or so. But they are definitely sticking around longer, for weeks on end now.

If the native biosphere can't adapt to the atmosphere, only the most hardy plants and trees will make it.

I read where things like Bougainvillea only grew in deep south Texas or southern California because freezes kill them here (unless you move them inside). But now you can plant them outside here, and they survive, because it doesn't freeze as much. I mean, freezes themselves can be devastating to pipes and other infrastructure, and vegetation in general, but lack of water due to heat is also not good.

Maybe we'll get some rain tomorrow, or maybe later today(?). I'm eyeballing the stuff in north Texas headed this way. Looks like more ominous clouds out there right now.

Wow it feels amazing outside after that 102 yesterday

Man almost need light jacket outside today with temps around 70, cloudy/light rain and a breeze. Not sure we get back above 80 today.