MESOSCALE DISCUSSION NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0311
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0123 AM CST SUN MAR 19 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF THE TX BIG BEND REGION AND THE EDWARDS
   PLATEAU/HILL COUNTRY
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 94...
   
   VALID 190723Z - 190800Z
   
   NEW WW BEING CONSIDERED ACROSS PARTS OF THE TX BIG BEND REGION AND
   THE EDWARDS PLATEAU/HILL COUNTRY OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
   
   REGIONAL RADARS/MESO-ANALYSIS INDICATED THE MOST RECENT CONVECTIVE
   COMPLEX WHICH HAD DEVELOPED AROUND 05Z OVER PARTS OF SW/CENTRAL TX
   SHOULD CONTINUE TO TRACK TO THE E/ESE DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS
   INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.  STRONG EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR VALUES
   COMBINED WITH SLY LLJ PROVIDING AN INFLOW OF HIGH THETA-E AIR
   SUGGESTS THIS COMPLEX SHOULD PERSIST WITH SUSTAINED ROTATING
   UPDRAFTS PRODUCING PRIMARILY LARGE HAIL.  THE STRONGEST STORMS AT
   THIS TIME WERE LOCATED ACROSS CROCKETT INTO SUTTON COUNTIES...WITH
   THIS ACTIVITY LOCATED CLOSEST TO THE SURFACE BOUNDARY AND OUTFLOW
   BOUNDARY INDICATING POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT...GIVEN
   ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL SHEAR VALUES LIKELY ALONG THESE BOUNDARIES.
   
   ..PETERS.. 03/19/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...FWD...EWX...SJT...MAF...
   
   30010242 30570187 31270074 31329918 31129765 29349833
   29259962 29540134

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0312
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0447 AM CST SUN MAR 19 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL TX
   
   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 95...
   
   VALID 191047Z - 191215Z
   
   GREATEST SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO BE ALONG THE SRN PERIPHERY OF
   THE CENTRAL TX CONVECTIVE COMPLEX THE NEXT FEW HOURS.  THE POTENTIAL
   FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO REMAINS...GIVEN PROXIMITY OF STRONGEST
   STORMS...AT THIS TIME...NEAR THE SURFACE BOUNDARY.  HAIL IS ALSO A
   THREAT.
   
   10Z MESO-ANALYSIS INDICATED THE WARM FRONT EXTENDED GENERALLY WWD
   FROM THE UPPER TX COAST TO AROUND DRT...WHILE AN INVERTED TROUGH
   EXTENDED FROM NNW OF DRT NEWD INTO CENTRAL TX /35 W TPL/ AND THEN
   ENEWD TO EAST CENTRAL TX.  REGIONAL RADARS/SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED
   THE SRN EXTENT OF THE CENTRAL TX CONVECTIVE COMPLEX WAS LOCATED
   ALONG/N OF THE INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH FROM THE COUNTIES OF EDWARDS
   TO SAN SABA/LAMPASAS.  THIS ACTIVITY WAS TRACKING NEWD PARALLEL TO
   THE TROUGH SUGGESTING A CONTINUED POTENTIAL FOR STORMS TO ROOT NEAR/
   CLOSE TO THE SURFACE FOR AN ATTENDANT THREAT OF AN ISOLATED TORNADO.
   OTHERWISE...THE THREAT WITH THE STRONGER ELEVATED STORMS WILL
   PRIMARILY BE HAIL.
   
   LATEST WSR-88D VWP DATA FROM DRT INDICATED A WEAKENING TREND IN THE
   SLY LLJ.  THIS COMBINED WITH DECREASING LARGE SCALE ASCENT...AS THE
   TAIL END OF A CENTRAL PLAINS SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES AWAY FROM
   CENTRAL TX...WOULD SUGGEST DIMINISHING DEEP LAYER FORCING WITH TIME
   ACROSS CENTRAL TX.  THUS...THE STRONGEST ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN
   ALONG THE SRN PERIPHERY OF THE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX...CLOSEST TO THE
   INFLOW OF A RICHER AIR MASS.
   
   ..PETERS.. 03/19/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...FWD...EWX...SJT...
   
   29830139 30660136 31549998 31509836 31109736 30049843
   29520073

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0313
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0516 AM CST SUN MAR 19 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...WESTERN/SOUTH CENTRAL SD AND NORTH
   CENTRAL/NORTHEAST NEB
   
   CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW
   
   VALID 191116Z - 191545Z
   
   MODERATE/LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS WESTERN/SOUTH
   CENTRAL SD AND NORTH CENTRAL INTO NORTHEAST NEB THROUGH MID MORNING.
   SNOW RATES MAY REACH 1 IN/HR THROUGH 15Z...ESPECIALLY ACROSS WEST
   CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL SD AND NORTH CENTRAL NEB.
   
   ON PERIPHERY OF WESTERN STATES BROAD TROUGH...SEVERAL SUBTLE
   SHORTWAVE IMPULSES PER WV IMAGERY...LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION...AND
   COUPLED UPPER JET STRUCTURE ARE CONTRIBUTING TO NORTHWEST-SOUTHEAST
   ORIENTED PRECIPITATION SHIELD THIS MORNING FROM WEST CENTRAL SD TO
   SOUTHEAST NEB. WHILE CURRENT TRENDS/SHORT TERM MODELS SUGGEST A
   MODEST NORTHEASTWARD TRANSITION OF THE HEAVIER SNOW THROUGH EARLY
   MORNING...INFLUENCE OF NORTHERN PLAINS HIGH PRESSURE AND LOW LEVEL
   DRY ADVECTION WILL TEND TO HINDER LOW LEVEL SATURATION...LEADING TO
   A SHARP DEMARKATION OF THE HEAVIER SNOW THIS MORNING ACROSS
   CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST SD INTO NORTHEAST NEB.
   
   THE MOST FAVORED CORRIDOR FOR MODERATE/LOCALIZED HEAVY SNOW THROUGH
   MID MORNING WILL LIKELY BE ALONG A PHILIP SD TO
   AINSWORTH-O'NEILL-COLUMBUS NEB AXIS. WITHIN THIS CORRIDOR...RUC
   SOUNDINGS DEPICT A SUSTAINED DURATION OF AMPLE UVVS JUXTAPOSED WITH
   A SATURATED DENDRITIC LAYER...IN ADDITION TO PRESENCE OF MODEST
   POTENTIAL INSTABILITY.
   
   ..GUYER.. 03/19/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX...ABR...GID...LBF...UNR...
   
   44470341 45130244 44499988 42019723 41179706 40959785
   41419929 42490077 43690197 43740312

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0314
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0755 AM CST SUN MAR 19 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF CENTRAL TX
   
   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 95...
   
   VALID 191355Z - 191430Z
   
   NEW WW BEING ISSUED FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL TX.
   
   13Z SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED THE INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDED NEWD
   THROUGH THE COUNTIES OF EDWARDS TO GILLESPIE/SRN BURNET TO EAST
   CENTRAL TX.  SRN SEVERE STORM...NOW OVER GILLESPIE COUNTY...
   REMAINED NEAR THIS BOUNDARY WITH CONTINUED INDICATIONS OF LOW-LEVEL
   ROTATION.  ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP/MOVE NEWD ALONG THIS BOUNDARY
   GIVEN ELY SURFACE WINDS ALONG THE TROUGH WILL HAVE THE CAPABILITY TO
   PRODUCE A TORNADO.  UNCERTAINTY REMAINS AT HOW MANY ADDITIONAL
   STORMS WILL DEVELOP IN THE NEAR SHORT TERM GIVEN LIMITED NEW STORM
   INITIATION PER CURRENT UPSTREAM RADAR TRENDS. 
   
   MEANWHILE...LEFT SPLITTING SUPERCELL /WHICH SPLIT A SECOND TIME/
   WITH RESPECTIVE LEFT AND RIGHT MOVING STORMS NOW LOCATED OVER CONCHO
   AND MASON COUNTIES RESPECTIVELY ARE LIKELY ELEVATED GIVEN DISTANCE
   FROM INVERTED TROUGH.  THESE STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE POTENTIAL
   TO PRODUCE LARGE HAIL. ANOTHER STORM HAS FORMED FARTHER WNW OVER
   REAGAN COUNTY. THIS NEW STORM ALONG WITH ANY NEW DEVELOPMENT WNW OF
   SURFACE TROUGH SHOULD REMAIN AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT...AT LEAST
   THROUGH MID MORNING...AS INCREASING LARGE SCALE ASCENT/WAA DEVELOPS
   NEWD AHEAD OF SHORT WAVE TROUGH/SPEED MAX NOW ENTERING FAR W TX.
   
   ..PETERS.. 03/19/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...FWD...EWX...SJT...MAF...
   
   29830179 30870197 31860138 32389988 32279739 31829598
   30069764 29799893 29250074

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0315
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1012 AM CST SUN MAR 19 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL TO NERN TX
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 96...
   
   VALID 191612Z - 191745Z
   
   ISOLATED VIGOROUS STORMS...SOME WITH HAIL...WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO
   DEVELOP WITHIN ELEVATED FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS CNTRL AND ERN TX THROUGH
   THIS MORNING. A NEW WATCH OVER THIS AREA DOES NOT APPEAR IMMINENT.
   
   EXTENSIVE LARGE SCALE TROUGH ACROSS THE WRN U.S. CONTINUES TO
   PROMOTE A BROAD REGION OF STRONG ISENTROPIC ASCENT ACROSS TX THIS
   MORNING. LOW AMPLITUDE IMPULSES EJECTING NEWD FROM THE LARGER SCALE
   TROUGH...COUPLED WITH DIURNAL STRENGTHENING OF LOW LEVEL
   JET...CONTINUE TO AID MCS DEVELOPMENT FROM THE PECOS VALLEY TO THE
   HILL COUNTRY. ONE SUCH DISTURBANCE WAS RESULTING IN THE CLUSTER OF
   STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS CURRENTLY FROM CONCHO COUNTY TO CORYELL AND
   BELL COUNTY. THIS ACTIVITY IS ROOTED AROUND 800MB BASED ON LATEST
   RUC SOUNDINGS AND STRONG EFFECTIVE SHEAR WAS LEADING TO PERSISTENT
   UPDRAFTS AND SUPERCELL STRUCTURE IN A FEW OF THE STORMS. ELEVATED
   NATURE OF THE CONVECTION...AND SOMEWHAT MARGINAL LAPSE RATES IN THE
   WAKE OF WIDESPREAD CONVECTION OVER THE PAST DAYS WOULD SUGGEST THAT
   THE HAIL POTENTIAL FROM THIS CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED AS IT
   CONTINUES TO SPREAD ENEWD THROUGH THE MORNING.
   
   ADDITIONAL UPSTREAM PERTURBATIONS EJECTING NEWD FROM THE LARGER
   SCALE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE MODEST TO STRONG FORCING FOR
   ASCENT ACROSS MUCH OF TX THROUGH THE DAY. RESULTING STRONG MASS AND
   MOISTURE FLUX...AND INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE INFLOW ACROSS THE DEEP
   FRONTAL ZONE OVER THE REGION...WILL LIKELY LEAD TO MORE WIDESPREAD
   INTENSE TSTMS LATER TODAY.
   
   ..CARBIN.. 03/19/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...SHV...HGX...FWD...EWX...SJT...
   
   31229538 30879653 30569777 30499911 30579979 31050025
   31579989 32069908 32969613 33139494 33039417 32389391
   31549416

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0316
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1215 PM CST SUN MAR 19 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...WCNTRL TX
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 191815Z - 192015Z
   
   TSTMS WERE BEGINNING TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE FROM THE TRANS PECOS TO
   THE NWRN HILL COUNTRY OF WCNTRL TX. A WATCH MAY BE NEEDED FOR PARTS
   OF THIS AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
   
   SCATTERED TSTMS PERSIST ACROSS PARTS OF WRN TX EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
   MUCH OF THIS CONVECTION REMAINS ELEVATED ATOP COOL/STABLE BOUNDARY
   LAYER AND WAS BEING SUPPORTED BY STRONG ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE OCCURRING
   TO THE NORTH OF SURFACE WARM FRONT. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND SHORT
   TERM MODEL GUIDANCE APPEAR TO SUGGEST THAT THE NEXT MID/UPPER LEVEL
   DISTURBANCE WAS EJECTING OUT OF THE BASE OF THE LARGE SCALE TROUGH
   AND WAS MOVING ENEWD ACROSS WEST TX/SRN NM ATTM. IN RESPONSE TO THIS
   MID LEVEL FORCING... EXPECT LOW LEVEL ASCENT TO STRENGTHEN ACROSS
   THE WARM FRONT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. PARCELS WITHIN THIS
   STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL ORIGINATE FROM WARM AND VERY MOIST
   AIR MASS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT AND SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO
   INCREASINGLY VIGOROUS TSTM DEVELOPMENT. EFFECTIVE SHEAR WILL
   CONTINUE TO SUPPORT UPDRAFT PERSISTENCE AND ROTATION WITH EMBEDDED
   SUPERCELLS POSING A THREAT OF LARGE HAIL.
   
   SURFACE-BASED STORM INITIATION ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT
   STILL APPEARS POSSIBLE LATER THIS AFTERNOON GIVEN MAGNITUDE OF LARGE
   SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT CONTRIBUTING TO PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL
   CONVERGENCE. HOWEVER...WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER HAS SO FAR GREATLY
   INHIBITED SURFACE HEATING NEAR THE BOUNDARY AND CAPPING WILL
   PROBABLY HOLD FOR AT LEAST A FEW MORE HOURS. SOME BREAKS IN THE
   DENSE CI ARE STARTING TO APPEAR ACROSS THE BIG BEND AREA AND MAY
   SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
   
   ..CARBIN.. 03/19/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...FWD...SJT...MAF...
   
   31399890 30779930 30380320 31100280 31570224 32470070
   32499940

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0316
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1215 PM CST SUN MAR 19 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...WCNTRL TX
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 191815Z - 192015Z
   
   TSTMS WERE BEGINNING TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE FROM THE TRANS PECOS TO
   THE NWRN HILL COUNTRY OF WCNTRL TX. A WATCH MAY BE NEEDED FOR PARTS
   OF THIS AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
   
   SCATTERED TSTMS PERSIST ACROSS PARTS OF WRN TX EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
   MUCH OF THIS CONVECTION REMAINS ELEVATED ATOP COOL/STABLE BOUNDARY
   LAYER AND WAS BEING SUPPORTED BY STRONG ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE OCCURRING
   TO THE NORTH OF SURFACE WARM FRONT. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND SHORT
   TERM MODEL GUIDANCE APPEAR TO SUGGEST THAT THE NEXT MID/UPPER LEVEL
   DISTURBANCE WAS EJECTING OUT OF THE BASE OF THE LARGE SCALE TROUGH
   AND WAS MOVING ENEWD ACROSS WEST TX/SRN NM ATTM. IN RESPONSE TO THIS
   MID LEVEL FORCING... EXPECT LOW LEVEL ASCENT TO STRENGTHEN ACROSS
   THE WARM FRONT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. PARCELS WITHIN THIS
   STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL ORIGINATE FROM WARM AND VERY MOIST
   AIR MASS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT AND SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO
   INCREASINGLY VIGOROUS TSTM DEVELOPMENT. EFFECTIVE SHEAR WILL
   CONTINUE TO SUPPORT UPDRAFT PERSISTENCE AND ROTATION WITH EMBEDDED
   SUPERCELLS POSING A THREAT OF LARGE HAIL.
   
   SURFACE-BASED STORM INITIATION ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT
   STILL APPEARS POSSIBLE LATER THIS AFTERNOON GIVEN MAGNITUDE OF LARGE
   SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT CONTRIBUTING TO PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL
   CONVERGENCE. HOWEVER...WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER HAS SO FAR GREATLY
   INHIBITED SURFACE HEATING NEAR THE BOUNDARY AND CAPPING WILL
   PROBABLY HOLD FOR AT LEAST A FEW MORE HOURS. SOME BREAKS IN THE
   DENSE CI ARE STARTING TO APPEAR ACROSS THE BIG BEND AREA AND MAY
   SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
   
   ..CARBIN.. 03/19/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...FWD...SJT...MAF...
   
   31399890 30779930 30380320 31100280 31570224 32470070
   32499940

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0317
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0128 PM CST SUN MAR 19 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...NERN NM AND SERN CO
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 191928Z - 192200Z
   
   CHANCE FOR WIDELY SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS APPEARS TO BE
   INCREASING OVER PARTS OF NERN NM AND SERN CO THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW
   STORMS COULD PRODUCE HAIL TO ABOUT 1 INCH IN DIAMETER.
   
   VERY STRONG LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH
   AGEOSTROPHIC ADJUSTMENTS WITHIN EXIT REGION OF MID LEVEL JET WILL
   CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD THE SRN HIGH PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON.
   MEANWHILE...MODEST SURFACE HEATING IN THE WAKE OF HIGH LEVEL
   BAROCLINIC CLOUD BAND...COUPLED WITH MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW...WERE
   CONTRIBUTING TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF WEAK INSTABILITY ACROSS THE AREA.
   LACK OF GREATER MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO LIMIT MLCAPE TO AOB 500
   J/KG. HOWEVER...THE COMBINATION OF STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND
   STRONG FORCING AND EFFECTIVE SHEAR SHOULD OFFSET THE LIMITED
   INSTABILITY AND AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED LOW-TOPPED BUT
   STRONG THUNDERSTORMS. A FEW OF THESE STORMS COULD BRIEFLY REACH
   SEVERE LEVELS WITH HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS.
   
   ..CARBIN.. 03/19/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...GLD...PUB...BOU...ABQ...
   
   35530332 34350346 33370497 33540573 35280543 36060556
   37880492 39090466 39450391 39180336 38320296 36830318

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0318
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0302 PM CST SUN MAR 19 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SCNTRL TX
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 192102Z - 192300Z
   
   SURFACE-BASED TSTMS WITH ATTENDANT THREAT OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
   WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVER PARTS OF SCNTRL TX THROUGH THIS
   EVENING. A WATCH WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY.
   
   COMPLICATED FORECAST SCENARIO PERSISTS ACROSS TX LATE THIS AFTERNOON
   AS FAST MOVING MID LEVEL DISTURBANCES CONTINUE TO EJECT NEWD OUT OF
   LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WEST. STRONGEST OF THESE
   DISTURBANCES WAS CURRENTLY ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH
   ACROSS SERN AZ/SWRN NM. INCREASINGLY DIFFLUENT MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW
   WILL AID LARGE SCALE LIFT ACROSS TX THROUGH THE EVENING. AT THE
   SURFACE...WAVY FRONTAL ZONE STRETCHES FROM FAR WEST TX EWD ACROSS
   THE HILL COUNTRY AND WAS REINFORCED IN VARIOUS LOCATIONS BY
   CONVECTIVELY COOLED BOUNDARY LAYER AIR MASS TO THE NORTH. MOST
   RECENT CONVECTIVE COMPLEX...NEAR CONCHO COUNTY... APPEARS ANCHORED
   NEAR FRONT/OUTFLOW INTERSECTION WHERE WEAK FRONTAL WAVE WAS LIKELY
   ENHANCING INFLOW INTO ELEVATED CONVECTIVE PLUME. STRONG LIFT ON THE
   LEADING EDGE OF NEXT UPSTREAM PERTURBATION APPEARS TO NOW BE
   PROMOTING RAPID TSTM DEVELOPMENT OVER PECOS AND CROCKETT COUNTIES.
   THIS ACTIVITY APPEARS TO BE TAPPING GREATER INSTABILITY AND MAY
   BECOME SEVERE SHORTLY.
   
   ADDITIONAL SURFACE-BASED STORMS APPEAR LIKELY OVER THE NEXT FEW
   HOURS AS LARGE SCALE FORCING CONTINUES TO ACT ON UNSTABLE AIR ALONG
   AND SOUTH OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY. SHEAR AND FORCING WILL BE MORE
   THAN ADEQUATE FOR SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE
   BECOMING INCREASINGLY LIKELY ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR THIS EVENING.
   
   ..CARBIN.. 03/19/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...FWD...EWX...SJT...MAF...
   
   29410061 29930245 30340238 30990154 31210041 31319947
   31509722 30539740 29889777

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0319
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0531 PM CST SUN MAR 19 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...NEB/NRN KS/NE CO/SE WY/SRN SD
   
   CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW
   
   VALID 192331Z - 200530Z
   
   CORRECTED FOR SECOND PARAGRAPH
   
   ...MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WILL DEVELOP/CONTINUE ACROSS CNTRL NEB
   THROUGH THE EVENING...WITH HRLY SNOW RATES AT LEAST 1-2 INCHES PER
   HOUR /PSBLY HIGHER IN CONVECTIVE BURSTS/. HEAVY SNOW WILL DEVELOP
   WITHIN A FEW HOURS ACROSS NE COLORADO...
   
   LATEST SATELLITE/RADAR LOOPS INDICATE PRECIPITATION IS INCREASING
   ACROSS THE PLAINS WITHIN STRONGLY DIFFLUENT UPPER FLOW PATTERN.
   TSTMS HAVE BEEN ONGOING IN KS THIS AFTN AND ARE SPREADING NWD INTO
   NEB WITH TSSN OBSERVED WITHIN THE LAST HOUR OR TWO AT MCCOOK NEB.
   18Z SOUNDING AT LAMONT OK SEEMS TO HAVE SAMPLED THE ELEVATED
   INSTABILITY WELL...SO ISOLD LTG STRIKES WILL CONTINUE AND
   CONVECTIVELY ENHANCE SNOW RATES THROUGH THE EVENING. FORECAST
   SOUNDINGS ACROSS SCNTRL NEB SUGGEST STEEP ELEVATED LAPSE RATES NEAR
   8 C/KG AND MUCAPE RANGING FROM 100-300 J/KG.
   
   LARGE SCALE LIFT INCREASES DRAMATICALLY ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS
   AFTER 00Z AS MAIN VORT MAX NOW OVER NW MEXICO APPROACHES. IN
   ADDITION TO THE STRONG LARGE SCALE FORCING...LOW LEVEL THETAE
   ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT ACROSS MID LEVEL FRONTAL SFC WILL RESULT
   IN A LARGE AREA OF HEAVY PCPN. HEAVIEST SNOWS OVER THE NEXT FEW
   HOURS WILL FALL FROM SCNTRL SD THROUGH CNTRL/SERN PORTIONS OF NEB.
   NCEP SREF GUIDANCE SUGGESTS AT LEAST 1 INCH/HOUR SNOW RATES ALONG
   THIS AXIS...WHICH WILL PERSIST WELL INTO THE OVERNIGHT. SHALLOW WARM
   INVERSION NOW IN PLACE ACROSS SW NEB/NE CO IS RESULTING IN FZRA AT
   AKO AND IML. STRONG WAA MAY MAINTAIN THIS FOR A TIME...THUS REDUCING
   OVERALL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS SW NEB. ONCE COLUMN COOLS
   SUFFICIENTLY...HEAVY SNOW WILL BE MAIN PTYPE ACROSS NE CO.
   
   IMPRESSIVE DENVER CYCLONE DEVELOPING WITH VERY STRONG INFLOW NOTED
   SE OF DEN. SFC WINDS WILL BECOME MORE NELY WITH TIME THIS
   EVENING...WHICH WILL FAVORABLY ENHANCE UPSLOPE SNOWS INVOF OF THE
   PALMER DIVIDE. THANKS TO WFO LBF FOR COORD.
   
   ..TAYLOR.. 03/19/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX...TOP...ABR...GID...LBF...UNR...GLD...PUB...BOU...CYS...
   
   39239860 39320159 38820459 39380538 41060591 43030404
   43890216 44089977 41259599 40109583 39369677

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0320
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0536 PM CST SUN MAR 19 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS SW/S-CENTRAL TX
   
   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 97...
   
   VALID 192336Z - 200130Z
   
   LINE OF SEVERE TSTMS -- INCLUDING APPARENT HEAVY-PRECIP SUPERCELL ON
   ITS SRN TAIL END -- IS MOVING ENE ABOUT 40 KT ACROSS CROCKETT/IRION
   COUNTIES AS OF 2330Z.  ALTHOUGH SFC OBS ARE SPARSE IN THIS
   AREA...ANCHORING SUPERCELL APPEARS TO BE JUST N OF QUASISTATIONARY
   SFC FRONTAL ZONE ANALYZED ALONG LINE FROM BPT...CLL...JCT...15 S
   FST.  SHALLOW AND RELATIVELY STABLE FRONTAL LAYER MAY LIE BENEATH
   SUPERCELL...HOWEVER EFFECTIVE PARCELS REACH AT OR NEAR SFC IN
   MODIFIED RUC SOUNDINGS...INDICATING POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE GUSTS AND
   PERHAPS A TORNADO REMAINS...IN ADDITION TO DAMAGING HAIL.  STRONG
   LOW LEVEL ROTATION HAS BEEN REPORTED BY SPOTTERS WITH THIS STORM PER
   SJT WARNINGS.
   
   AT 2330Z OTHER TSTMS ARE DEVELOPING RAPIDLY ACROSS PORTIONS NRN
   COAHUILA...FROM SERRANIAS DEL BURRO RANGE NNEWD ACROSS RIO GRANDE
   VALLEY...AND INTO PORTIONS VAL VERDE COUNTY TX.  AIR MASS BETWEEN
   THIS ACTIVITY AND WARM FRONT WILL FAVOR INTENSIFICATION TO SEVERE
   LEVELS...WITH SHEAR AND THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES FAVORING BOTH
   SUPERCELLS AND BOW ECHOES.  DRT VWP AND RUC SOUNDINGS EWD TOWARD SAT
   INDICATE STRONG VEERING WITH HEIGHT AND FAVORABLE HODOGRAPHS...WHICH
   WILL BE MAXIMIZED ALONG FRONT. ANY RELATIVELY DISCRETE TSTM
   INTERACTING WITH FRONT MAY TIGHTEN LOW LEVEL MESOCYCLONE AND PRODUCE
   TORNADOES.  LARGER DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS AND HIGHER DCAPE ARE
   EVIDENT FARTHER SE ACROSS UVA/HDO/COT AREAS..WHERE BOUNDARY LAYER
   HAS BEEN STRONGLY HEATED AND MIXED.  POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR INITIAL
   ACTIVITY NEAR RIO GRANDE TO ORGANIZE INTO MCS AS INDICATED BY
   SEVERAL 12Z/18Z MODELS AND 21Z RUC...WITH  DERECHO POSSIBLE ACROSS
   PORTIONS S-CENTRAL/SE TX.  SHOULD THIS EVOLUTION BECOME BETTER
   EVIDENT...ANOTHER WW MAY BE REQUIRED FARTHER E WITHIN A FEW HOURS.
   
   ..EDWARDS.. 03/19/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...FWD...EWX...SJT...MAF...
   
   29629850 29219978 29190137 29870144 31570125 31830080
   31859865 31109853

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0321
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0551 PM CST SUN MAR 19 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS E-CENTRAL/SERN NM
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 192351Z - 200045Z
   
   WW MAY BE REQUIRED SOON FOR PORTIONS TX/NM BORDER REGION FROM I-40
   SWD TOWARD INK REGION.
   
   WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS ARE DEVELOPING FROM CULBERSON COUNTY TX NNEWD
   TOWARD TCC AREA...IN ZONE OF 250-800 J/KG SBCAPES AND 70-80 KT
   DEEP-LAYER SHEAR...FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL AND
   DAMAGING GUSTS.  ALTHOUGH SFC AIR MASS IS COOL WITH TEMPS 50S TO LOW
   60S IN PROSPECTIVE INFLOW REGION...COLD AIR ALOFT AND STEEP LAPSE
   RATES WILL SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR SFC-BASED TSTMS AS FAR E AS INVOF
   TX/NM BORDER.  ACTIVITY MAY CONTINUE MOVING EWD ATOP PROGRESSIVELY
   MORE STABLE SFC AIR INTO TX PANHANDLE AND SOUTH PLAINS...WITH
   CONTINUED RISK OF LARGE HAIL.
   
   ..EDWARDS.. 03/19/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...MAF...ABQ...
   
   31400345 31400385 31580441 32330417 33320403 35020363
   35470343 35490309 35210249 33480200 31650256

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0322
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0854 PM CST SUN MAR 19 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS E-CENTRAL/SERN NM...TX TRANS-PECOS REGION
   NWD THROUGH SOUTH PLAINS TO SWRN TX PANHANDLE.
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 98...
   
   VALID 200254Z - 200500Z
   
   CONTINUE WW 98.  AREA E OF WW 98 WILL BE MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE WW
   AS WELL.
   
   SCATTERED-NUMEROUS TSTMS ARE DEVELOPING ALONG WRN EDGE OF WW AS OF
   0230Z...W OF ORIGINAL AND MORE WIDELY SCATTERED ACTIVITY THAT NOW IS
   MOVING INTO TX.  THIS ACTIVITY IS FORMING ALONG COMBINED
   DRYLINE/FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT NOW APPEARS TO BE MOVING EWD AGAIN
   FROM ERN PORTIONS CHAVES/EDDY COUNTIES.  SEVERE CONCERN IS
   TRANSITIONING MAINLY TO LARGE HAIL...NOW THAT BOUNDARY LAYER IS
   COOLING...AND ALSO...WITH ACTIVITY LIKELY TO MOVE OVER PROGRESSIVELY
   COOLER SFC AIR MASS ADVECTING INTO REGION FROM E.  PER COORD WITH
   MAF...NUMEROUS REPORTS OF MRGLLY SEVERE HAIL WERE RECEIVED IN CNM
   AREA AROUND 02Z.
   
   OCCASIONAL HAIL IS POSSIBLE E OF WW ACROSS REMAINDER S PLAINS REGION
   AND SRN TX PANHANDLE THROUGH 06Z.  RAOB DATA AND FCST SOUNDINGS
   INDICATE ELEVATED MUCAPES UP TO 500 J/KG ATTM ALONG LBB-MAF
   LINE...DIMINISHING TO NEAR ZERO ALONG 100 W LONGITUDE...WITH 60-75
   KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR.  AS DEEP/COLD TROUGH ALOFT OVER GREAT BASIN AND
   FOREGOING PLUME OF LARGE SCALE ASCENT CONTINUE TO ACCELERATE
   EWD...GRADUAL INCREASE IN MUCAPE MAY OCCUR FROM W-E ACROSS REGION
   AND OVER ANY GIVEN LOCALE.
   
   ..EDWARDS.. 03/20/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...MAF...ABQ...
   
   31490468 33690399 34530383 34920258 34790173 34190120
   32970137 31820216 31180315

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0323
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1032 PM CST SUN MAR 19 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS S-CENTRAL/SE TX
   
   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 99...
   
   VALID 200432Z - 200630Z
   
   AS OF 0430Z...TWO POTENTIALLY TORNADIC SUPERCELLS ARE EVIDENT.
   FIRST STORM HAS MOVED ABOUT 200 NM ENEWD FROM ITS ORIGIN OVER NRN
   COAHUILA AND IS CROSSING PORTIONS HAYS/BLANCO/COMAL COUNTIES...WITH
   HISTORY OF PRODUCING BASEBALL SIZE HAIL.  IT SHOULD CONTINUE MOVING
   ENEWD 30-35 KT ACROSS I-35 CORRIDOR BETWEEN AUS AND SAN MARCOS...AND
   EVENTUALLY TOWARD CLL AREA.  SUPERCELL IS MOVING ALONG PRONOUNCED
   SFC BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY -- REINFORCED BY OUTFLOW FROM
   EARLIER/ELEVATED CONVECTION.  LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE...VORTICITY AND
   STORM-RELATIVE INFLOW ARE MAXIMIZED ALONG THIS FRONT.  ALTHOUGH
   RUC/ETA MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE SBCINH...EFFECTIVE LIFTED PARCELS
   MAY REMAIN NEARLY SFC-BASED.  BESIDES TORNADO THREAT...DAMAGING HAIL
   AND SEVERE GUSTS ALSO ARE POSSIBLE.
   
   SECOND SUPERCELL IS EMBEDDED WITHIN LARGE AND EXPANDING AREA OF
   STRONG-SEVERE CONVECTION CENTERED ON ERN UVALDE COUNTY.  THIS
   ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TOWARD SAT METRO AREA WITH RISK OF
   SEVERE WIND...DAMAGING HAIL AND PERHAPS AN EMBEDDED TORNADO.  INFLOW
   LAYER ALONG AND S OF FRONTAL ZONE WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE
   WITH 60-70 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR AND MUCAPES AROUND 2000 J/KG.
   RESULTING MCS MAY PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND...OCCASIONAL HAIL AND A FEW
   TORNADOES WITHIN LONG CORRIDOR ACROSS S-CENTRAL/SERN TX OVERNIGHT.
   ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE NW LRD...HOWEVER SRN EXTENT WILL
   BE LIMITED BY CAPPING EVIDENT IN 00Z CRP RAOB.
   
   ..EDWARDS.. 03/20/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...HGX...FWD...CRP...EWX...
   
   27939999 29549972 30119904 30229820 30959731 31259680
   31139611 30479552 29879570 28769726 27829897

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0324
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1137 PM CST SUN MAR 19 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS W TX AND EXTREME ERN NM
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 100...98...
   
   VALID 200537Z - 200700Z
   
   SVR POTENTIAL SHOULD BE OUT OF WW 98 BY SCHEDULED 07Z EXPIRATION
   TIME...AND HAS EXITED NM WHERE AIR MASS HAS STABILIZED CONSIDERABLY
   AND SUBSTANTIAL DRYING IS UNDERWAY.  CONTINUE WW 100.
   
   WRN MOST BAND OF STRONG FORCING IS EVIDENT AS OF 0530Z FROM ANDREWS
   COUNTY NWD TOWARD BAILEY/LAMB COUNTY LINE...CORRESPONDING TO STRONG
   AND SEVERE CONVECTION. WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS ALSO ARE EVIDENT
   AHEAD OF THAT ACTIVITY...MOVING ENEWD 30-40 KT...INCLUDING NRN
   PORTIONS MAF AREA.  ACTIVITY IN THIS REGION HAS PRODUCED ABUNDANT
   AMOUNTS OF MRGL SEVERE HAIL IN SEVERAL LOCALES.  THREAT FOR HAIL
   WILL CONTINUE AS CONVECTION MOVES NEWD OUT OF WW 98 AND ACROSS WW
   100 DURING NEXT 2-3 HOURS.  AIR MASS OVER W-CENTRAL TX REMAINS QUITE
   STABLE WITHIN 2-3 KM AGL BASED ON MODIFIED 00Z MAF RAOB AND RUC FCST
   SOUNDINGS.  HOWEVER ELEVATED MUCAPES 400-800 J/KG AND EFFECTIVE
   SHEARS OVER 60 KT WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT STORM ORGANIZATION WITH
   INFLOW LAYER ROOTED BETWEEN 700-850 MB.
   
   ..EDWARDS.. 03/20/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...HGX...FWD...CRP...EWX...
   
   27939999 29549972 30119904 30229820 30959731 31259680
   31139611 30479552 29879570 28769726 27829897

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0325
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0126 AM CST MON MAR 20 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF THE MID/UPPER TX COAST INCLUDING ADJACENT
   COASTAL PLAINS
   
   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 99...
   
   VALID 200726Z - 200830Z
   
   NEW WW WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED TO THE E AND NE OF WW 99...PRIMARILY
   FROM THE MID TX COAST REGION NEWD TO THE SABINE RIVER.
   
   07Z SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED A LOW DEVELOPING TO THE NW OF CRP/SW
   OF VCT IN THE COUNTY OF LIVE OAK.  THIS LOW WAS LOCATED ALONG A
   SURFACE BOUNDARY WHICH EXTENDED NEWD INTO EAST CENTRAL TX.  RICH
   MOISTURE S OF THIS BOUNDARY /SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO
   AROUND 70/ COMBINED WITH STEEP MID LAPSE RATES ARE MAINTAINING A
   MODERATELY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT.  ALTHOUGH OBJECTIVE ANALYSES
   INDICATED THIS REGION IS CAPPED...LARGE SCALE ASCENT SPREADING
   ACROSS THIS REGION OVERNIGHT GIVEN CONTINUED HEIGHT FALLS WILL
   LIKELY RESULT IN SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION FOR SURFACE BASED
   ACTIVITY.  06Z RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONVEY THIS SAME SCENARIO. 
   
   STORMS AND NEW DEVELOPMENT ASSOCIATED WITH IMMEDIATE UPSTREAM
   CONVECTIVE COMPLEX WILL TRACK EWD DURING THE EARLY MORNING WITH
   STRENGTHENING DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES MAINTAINING THIS COMPLEX.
   ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL SHEAR IN THE VICINITY OF THE SURFACE LOW AS IT
   TRACKS NEWD ALONG THE SURFACE BOUNDARY AND WITH THE BOUNDARY ITSELF
   WILL SUPPORT A THREAT FOR TORNADOES.
   
   ..PETERS.. 03/20/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD...CRP...EWX...
   
   27819729 27969827 28549901 29959863 30849812 31509677
   32069376 29629372

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0326
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0208 AM CST MON MAR 20 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...NW TX
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 100...
   
   VALID 200808Z - 200915Z
   
   SEVERE STORM THREAT WITHIN VALID PART OF WW 100 WILL CONTINUE TO
   DIMINISH.
   
   ALTHOUGH EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR VALUES REMAIN SUPPORTIVE FOR ORGANIZED
   STORMS...WEAKENING INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO LIMIT THE POTENTIAL
   FOR ADDITIONAL SEVERE STORMS ACROSS NW TX.  LARGE SCALE ASCENT
   WITHIN EXIT REGION OF 75 KT SSWLY MID LEVEL JET EXTENDING INTO SWRN
   OK SHOULD MAINTAIN AREA OF SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED ISOLATED STORMS
   ACROSS TX PANHANDLE/WRN OK NWD TOWARD SWRN KS.
   
   ..PETERS.. 03/20/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...AMA...MAF...
   
   31670093 33460075 34760100 34749986 34199892 32039910
   31549966

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0327
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0336 AM CST MON MAR 20 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...UPPER TX COAST INTO PARTS OF SERN/EAST CENTRAL TX
   AND SWRN LA
   
   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 99...
   
   VALID 200936Z - 201000Z
   
   ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE MORE INTENSE STORMS
   THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS FROM THE UPPER TX COASTAL REGION INTO PARTS
   OF SERN/EAST CENTRAL TX AND SWRN LA.  ADDITIONAL WW IS NOT EXPECTED
   AT THIS TIME...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR ANY
   RE-INTENSIFICATION.
   
   AT 0915Z...REGIONAL RADARS INDICATED THE STRONGEST STORMS EXTENDED
   FROM THE TX COUNTIES OF AUSTIN TO WALLER TO MADISON ALONG THE FAR
   ERN PART OF WW 99.  LATEST MESO-ANALYSIS WOULD SUGGEST THIS ACTIVITY
   IS ELEVATED GIVEN ITS LOCATION TO THE WNW OF SURFACE TROUGH/OUTFLOW
   BOUNDARY WHICH EXTENDED FROM THE MIDDLE TX COAST NEWD TO EAST
   CENTRAL TX.  GENERALLY WEAK SURFACE WINDS INDICATIVE OF A DECOUPLED
   BOUNDARY LAYER ALSO SUGGEST THE EWD MOVING CLUSTER OF STORMS SHOULD
   REMAIN ELEVATED.  CURRENT WEAKENING TREND WITH THESE STORMS IS
   EXPECTED TO CONTINUE...WITH A LOW PROBABILITY FOR FEW STRONG WIND
   GUSTS.
   
   ..PETERS.. 03/20/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD...EWX...
   
   28939640 29529696 30459684 31319649 31449524 31429333
   29759328 28659571

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0328
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0421 AM CST MON MAR 20 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF SERN TX/SWRN-CENTRAL LA
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 201021Z - 201045Z
   
   WW MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PARTS OF SERN TX INTO SWRN/CENTRAL LA.
   
   REGIONAL RADARS INDICATED THE STORM THAT MOVED INTO MONTGOMERY
   COUNTY DURING THE LAST 30-45 MINUTES HAS LOW-LEVEL ROTATION.  THIS
   STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR THE INTERSECTION/TRIPLE POINT OF SW-NE
   ORIENTED SURFACE TROUGH/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND WARM FRONT...WHICH
   EXTENDED EWD FROM MONTGOMERY COUNTY INTO WEST CENTRAL/CENTRAL LA TO
   SERN MS.  ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL SHEAR ALONG THESE BOUNDARIES WILL
   SUPPORT A TORNADO POTENTIAL EWD INTO LA THIS MORNING.
   
   ..PETERS.. 03/20/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...JAN...LCH...SHV...HGX...
   
   29939578 31019542 31409520 31599380 31699263 31689188
   30509193 30009357

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0329
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0438 AM CST MON MAR 20 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...WESTERN KS/FAR EASTERN CO AND SOUTHERN NEB
   
   CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW
   
   VALID 201038Z - 201515Z
   
   SNOW WILL STEADILY DEVELOP/INCREASE THROUGH MID MORNING ACROSS MUCH
   OF WESTERN KS/FAR EASTERN CO AND SOUTHERN NEB. SNOW RATES OF 1 IN/HR
   OR GREATER ARE LIKELY BY 15Z.
   
   AS UPPER LOW MOVES EASTWARD OUT OF NM...PRONOUNCED BLOSSOMING/
   COOLING AND IMPLIED ASCENT IS EVIDENT IN WATER VAPOR/INFRARED
   SATELLITE IMAGERY OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS ACROSS THE CENTRAL
   HIGH PLAINS. A CORRESPONDING EXPANSION/INCREASE OF WSR-88D
   REFLECTIVITY RETURNS ACROSS MUCH OF KS/SOUTHEAST CO/SOUTHERN NEB IS
   ALSO NOTED EARLY THIS MORNING. WITH CYCLOGENESIS ACROSS NORTHEAST
   NM...UPPER JET DIVERGENCE JUXTAPOSED WITH LOW LEVEL WARM
   ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AND EASTERLY UPSLOPE WILL CONTRIBUTE TO
   STRONG UVVS AND INCREASING PRECIPITATION RATES THROUGH THE MORNING.
   09Z RUC/00Z 4KM WRF-NMM SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR 1 IN/HR OR GREATER
   SNOW RATES BY 15Z IN A SOUTHWEST-NORTHEAST CORRIDOR FROM SOUTHEAST
   CO/WESTERN KS INTO SOUTH CENTRAL NEB.
   
   ACROSS WESTERN KS/SOUTHEAST CO...ALTHOUGH SURFACE TEMPS ARE
   GENERALLY ABOVE FREEZING AS OF 10Z...ONSET OF HIGHER PRECIPITATION
   RATES/DYNAMIC COOLING WILL RESULT IN A QUICK ONSET OF SNOWFALL EARLY
   THIS MORNING AS BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES COOL TO NEAR/BELOW
   FREEZING. 06Z NAM/09Z RUC SOUNDINGS FURTHER IMPLY THIS IS LIKELY IN
   THE SHORT TERM...GENERALLY BY 12Z.
   
   ..GUYER.. 03/20/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...LBF...DDC...GLD...PUB...
   
   39300256 40430148 41179969 41389671 39619752 37989962
   37220082 37090176 37080253 37700322