Florida Weather

[gatorcane]

Wow the ECMWF is COLD for the SE United States and Florida for 1 week from now. I don't have access to the PAID ECMWF site, but it looks like a freeze into parts of Central Florida on this run like the last run.

[TheStormExpert]

Well the models seem to be latching onto a more significant cool down coming next late Sunday Night/Monday Morning. The Euro is still the colder solution of the two reliable global models, while the GFS dropped the cooldown in it's 00z run last night and then brought it back(even cooler than the 18z) in it's 06z run early this morning! The Euro hasn't changed much if at all from it's 12z run yesterday showing the core of the cold air being over the Deep South and into portions of Extreme North FL come early next week.

With the NAO looking now to stay negative through month's end and the AO staying extremely negative through the end of the month and possibly beyond, we also have a positive PNA as well! So it looks like the teleconnections are finally coming into position which would favor a significant cold outbreak across the Deep South and into FL and the peninsula in the coming week or so.

Only inhibiting factors I see that could and will influence how cold it may get are cloud cover and precip. from the very active Subtropical Jet typical of a Strong El Niño.

Hope you all are ready for the LONG awaited arrival of 'Ol Man Winter!

[AdamFirst]

NWS Miami disco from this morning

LONG TERM...
THE HIGH OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES WILL MOVE QUICKLY TO
THE EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC WATERS LATE THIS WEEK...ALLOWING FOR
LOW PRESSURE TO DEVELOP OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND MOVE ACROSS
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. HOWEVER...THE LONG RANGE MODELS ARE STILL
SPLIT ON THE TRACK OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA EARLY THIS MORNING.
THE GFS MODEL TAKES THE LOW OVER THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION LATE
THIS WEEK...WHILE THE ECMWF MODEL TAKES THE LOW OVER NORTHERN
FLORIDA. DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF THE LOW...SOUTH FLORIDA COULD
SEE ANYWHERE FROM SHOWERS TO POSSIBLE STRONG TO SEVERE WEATHER.
THEREFORE...POPS WILL REMAIN IN THE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS RANGE
LATE THIS WEEK BUT WILL ONLY CARRY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL THE MODELS AGREE MORE WITH EACH OTHER ON THE
TRACK OF THE LOW.

[Sanibel]

The edge of the cold front settled right over us and isn't plunging too quickly. 67* and sunny. Not too bad but got cool last night.

[gatorcane]

latest ECMWF and the arctic air just misses Florida to the north...

[gatorcane]

I see that NWS Tampa has gone colder for overnight lows tonight:

Tampa - 41F
Clearwater - 44F
St. Petersburg - 47F

Freeze for much of the Nature coast.

So looking back at the models the GFS appears it was too warm around 5 days out for this event...the CMC was too cold.

Latest SAT imagery shows clear skies for Central Florida with a good radiational cooling setup tonight - Could temps bottom out a few degrees cooler than what the NWS is forecasting)?



Dewpoints are quite low for this time of day too across Central Florida, notice the SE Coast of Florida with much higher dew points noticeably higher (and thus noticeably warmer temps for SE Florida compared to the rest of the state). That is because the wind vector is NE off the Gulf stream and there is more moisture around in general.

[gatorcane]

Well the 18Z GFS has gone colder for Florida for the next week chill with temps in the 30s for Central Florida:

[psyclone]

It feels frigid out there tonight. today was like a beautiful, crisp football day up north...perfect clean air, a stellar visibility and a stunning blue sky. I don't think it hit 60 here...but it was great. I prefer it a touch warmer but we could do far worse.

[StormingB81]

It feels frigid out there tonight. today was like a beautiful, crisp football day up north...perfect clean air, a stellar visibility and a stunning blue sky. I don't think it hit 60 here...but it was great. I prefer it a touch warmer but we could do far worse.

I want a couple freezes lol ok let's start with one lol

[TheStormExpert]

The latest CPC Temperature and Precipitation Outlooks put out this afternoon calls for a continuation of Below Normal Temps. and Above Normal Precip. for the southern half of Florida at least.

6-10 Day Temp. Outlook


8-14 Day Temp. Outlook


6-10 Day Precip. Outlook


8-14 Day Precip. Outlook

[AdamFirst]

Cool and dreary here in South Florida as light rains spread over the area. Currently 60 degrees at KMIA.

[NDG]

The Euro remains colder than the GFS for early next but it has trended warmer in the last couple runs.

Severe wx still remains the possibility for parts of central and south FL on Friday.

[northjaxpro]

The first real freeze of this season has occured this morning here. Temp dropped down below freezing after 11 p.m. last night and we have been at 7 hours below hours freezing now. Temp at 29.3 degrees. So far the morning low has been 28.7 degrees. A hard freeze occurred in areas in the Suwannee River basin and in SE Georgia.

Also, we have frost here at the ponderosa for the first time this season. Well, this will put a temporary stop with me mowing the grass for the time being..

One more frosty night with a light freeze expected for Wednesday morning here with lows expected in the lower 30s.

The cold High Pressure area shifts east on Thursday and temps briefly modify into Friday as a shortwave moves out of the GOM and brings increased rain chances to the state. Then, a stronger shortwave will swing across the region early Sunday. There is a chance of rain Sunday ss this disturbamce moved through. Colder temps return Monday and Tuesday of this upcoming week with a freeze possible here again by Tuesday morning.

I will discuss the long range outlook again later tonight...

[TheStormExpert]

Even though the teleconnections are favorable for cold arctic air to penetrate down towards the Deep South and FL the models are backing off on their bullish ideas they had just 24hrs. ago.

After trending colder for the morning of Monday January 18th on it's 18z run last night the GFS has backed off several degrees each run since then on how cool or cold it might get next Monday morning.

The Euro as well has backed off on it's very bullish idea it had on it's 00z run yesterday and has since trended with keeping the coldest air north of Florida as a whole now heading basically East/ESE across the Eastern U.S. missing all of Florida, though it is still somewhat more bullish than the GFS is for Monday morning.

IMO the reason being why even with a negative NAO/AO and positive PNA we still can't get any real cold air to penetrate down the spine of FL is the flow across the U.S. has been way too progressive(fast moving). This is not allowing the cold air behind the cold fronts that make it through FL to stick around for more than just a day or two(at most) before the next weather system pushes it out into the Atlantic and the pattern repeats itself again like it has for the past week or so now.

Unlike in winters like 2010 there is no blocking pattern to allow this cold air to just stick around for prolonged periods of time. Instead it is in and out, in and out and so on. This plus the active Subtropical Jet has only allowed places in South FL to bottom out no more than 40's and 50's at best for low's when if things were different it could have been even colder.

At least we are seeing a much different weather pattern than in December when it was just awfully warm and humid and just that! Hopefully in the long range we don't see a return to that eventually for the rest of the winter.

[Sanibel]

Cooler today, thin overcast 61*. Blanket weather.

[FireRat]

We sure have gotten a fair share of cold weather here in west broward. Currently it is 58.6 degrees in my locality with overcast skies and light rain. This is usually the warmest part of the day too, we're forecast to drop to 52 tonight. It's been 60's and 50's for a few days now, feels great vs non stop 80s and 90s.

[TheStormExpert]

The 18z GFS has trended colder again for both Monday and Tuesday mornings, very similar to it's 18z run yesterday.

[Sanibel]

It got to 68* and overcast. When I started my bike ride it felt a little too cool to ride but by the time I was finished it was warm. Felt like good ice cold air conditioning.

That weather border is stationary and sliding over us. Should be cloudy again tomorrow.

[NDG]

The Euro did very well 3 days ago forecasting cloud cover to move over the whole FL Peninsula during the night last night to keep most of us insulated from dropping into the 30s.
Interesting how the NWS office in the Tampa Bay area kept freeze warnings up for its northern zone even when it was evident that cloud cover was going to be in place all night, that's why I have always said that office is cold biased on their forecasts every winter.

While the SPC is not too impressed with the conditions forecasted for a severe wx event for central and S FL FL for late Thursday night/Friday the NWS offices here in our areas are still forecasting a possible strong to severe wx event with the possibility of isolated tornadoes.

Edit: Last night's Euro shows widespread 30s for lows next Tuesday and Wednesday mornings for central FL, widespread freeze for northern FL and as usual for the counties of the Nature Coast.

[gatorcane]

NWS offices appear to be warmer for this next cold event for early next week by about 5F degrees looking at the Euro and GFS solutions. The CMC of course is quite cold with a freeze into Central Florida, though we all know the CMC has a cold-bias. Also long-range, the GFS and Euro show yet another surge of cold Canadian air pushing down into the SE United States and Florida - the below normal weather for Florida might continue for most of this month.