Florida Weather

[NDG]

And here's the warning for those cells moving inland:

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SPECIAL MARINE WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA / RUSKIN FL
936 AM EST FRI JAN 15 2016

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN RUSKIN HAS ISSUED A

* SPECIAL MARINE WARNING FOR...
CHARLOTTE HARBOR AND PINE ISLAND SOUND...
COASTAL WATERS FROM BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD FL OUT 20 NM...
COASTAL WATERS FROM ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS FL OUT 20 NM...
WATERS FROM BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD FL OUT 20 TO 60 NM...
WATERS FROM ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS FL OUT 20 TO 60 NM...

* UNTIL 1030 AM EST

* AT 935 AM EST...A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
WATERSPOUTS...WAS LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 26 NM
SOUTHWEST OF SIESTA KEY TO 43 NM SOUTHWEST OF CAPTIVA...MOVING EAST
AT 45 KNOTS.

HAZARD...WATERSPOUTS AND WIND GUSTS 34 KNOTS OR GREATER.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED.

IMPACT...WATERSPOUTS CAN EASILY OVERTURN BOATS AND CREATE LOCALLY
HAZARDOUS SEAS. SMALL CRAFT COULD BE DAMAGED IN BRIEFLY
HIGHER WINDS AND SUDDENLY HIGHER WAVES.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
M6 REEF...SANIBEL...MD2 REEF...M10 REEF...CAPTIVA...DON PEDRO
ISLAND...M9 REEF...M17 REEF...GASPARILLA ISLAND...M13 REEF...MD4
REEF...BONITA BEACH...M5 REEF...BIG SARASOTA PASS...MD3 REEF...M16
REEF...FORT MYERS BEACH...MANASOTA KEY...LYNN SILVERTOOTH REEF AND
M15 REEF.

[psyclone]

Line is through here...heavy rain but no wind...not even a single rumble of thunder. basically a nice, free car wash.

[AdamFirst]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0022
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0912 AM CST FRI JAN 15 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN FL

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 151512Z - 151715Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

SUMMARY...A RELATIVELY NARROW ZONE ACROSS SRN FL MAY SEE A
RELATIVELY HIGHER RISK OF SEVERE WIND OR A BRIEF/WEAK TORNADO
TODAY...AND A WATCH MAY BE CONSIDERED DEPENDING ON CONVECTIVE
TRENDS.

DISCUSSION...A CLUSTER OF CELLS CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNS OF POSSIBLY
BEING SEVERE NOW APPROACHING THE FORT MYERS VICINITY WITH BROAD
MIDLEVEL MESOCYCLONES AND ROBUST LIGHTNING ACTIVITY. AHEAD OF THIS
ACTIVITY...SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A MORE UNSTABLE AIR MASS WITH LOWER
70S TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS APPROACHING 70 F. ALTHOUGH LOW-LEVEL
WINDS ARE FORECAST TO VEER GRADUALLY WITH TIME...FORCING FOR ASCENT
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS SHOULD BE FOCUSED IN A W-E ORIENTED ZONE
WHICH IS ALSO ALONG A WEAK PRECIPITATION ENHANCED BOUNDARY.

EDIT: Just as I posted this, Severe T-Storm Warning is issued for Desoto/Charlotte County around Punta Gorda & Port Charlotte

[AdamFirst]

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 3
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1035 AM EST FRI JAN 15 2016

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
PARTS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH FLORIDA
COASTAL WATERS

* EFFECTIVE THIS FRIDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON FROM 1035 AM UNTIL
500 PM EST.

* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
A COUPLE TORNADOES POSSIBLE
ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE

SUMMARY...CLUSTERS OF STRONG/SEVERE STORMS WILL SPREAD EASTWARD
ACROSS THE CORRIDOR ROUGHLY FROM FORT MEYERS TO WEST PALM BEACH
THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. THE STRONGEST STORMS COULD PRODUCE A TORNADO
OR TWO...AS WELL AS ISOLATED DAMAGING GUSTS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 35 STATUTE
MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 15 MILES SOUTHWEST OF FORT
MEYERS FLORIDA TO 115 MILES EAST NORTHEAST OF FORT MEYERS
FLORIDA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3).

[Sanibel]

Severe thunderstorm alert Sanibel by NWS. Straight line winds 60mph torrential rain.

Wind and rain last night. Training rain bands off Gulf. Yards flooded.

Tornado warning issued. Not sure if it was sighted or not.

Like a tropical storm here at the moment. Blasting wind and deluge. Surprised we still have power.

[NDG]

The line came through my area like a monsoon, felt like a tropical storm winds gusting near 40 mph, street flooded.

About time they posted a tornado watch, better safe than sorry.

[NDG]

ORNADO WARNING
FLC071-151615-
/O.NEW.KTBW.TO.W.0003.160115T1552Z-160115T1615Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA / RUSKIN FL
1052 AM EST FRI JAN 15 2016

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN RUSKIN HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
CENTRAL LEE COUNTY IN SOUTHWESTERN FLORIDA...

* UNTIL 1115 AM EST

* AT 1051 AM EST...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A
TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR IONA...OR 8 MILES SOUTHWEST OF CAPE
CORAL...MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH.

HAZARD...TORNADO.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION.

IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT
SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED.
DAMAGE TO ROOFS...WINDOWS AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE
DAMAGE IS LIKELY.

* THIS DANGEROUS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
HARLEM HEIGHTS AND IONA AROUND 1105 AM EST.
CYPRESS LAKE...VILLAS...PINE MANOR AND MCGREGOR AROUND 1110 AM EST.
SOUTHWEST FLORIDA AIRPORT...SAN CARLOS PARK...THREE OAKS AND EAST
DUNBAR AROUND 1115 AM EST.

OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THIS TORNADIC THUNDERSTORM INCLUDE SAINT
JAMES CITY...FORT MYERS VILLAS...ESTERO...PAGE PARK...GATEWAY...PUNTA
RASSA...WHISKEY CREEK...PAGE FIELD AIRPORT...TICE AND FORT MYERS
SHORES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW! MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF YOU ARE OUTDOORS...IN A MOBILE
HOME...OR IN A VEHICLE...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND
PROTECT YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.

IF ON OR NEAR THE WATERS NEAR PUNTA RASSA...GET AWAY FROM THE WATER
AND MOVE TO SAFE SHELTER IMMEDIATELY. IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU
ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN
PRODUCE LARGE CAPSIZING WAVES...EVEN ON SMALL BODIES OF WATER. MOVE
INTO DOCK AND SEEK SAFE SHELTER NOW. DO NOT BE CAUGHT ON THE WATER
IN A THUNDERSTORM.

[AdamFirst]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1005 AM EST FRI JAN 15 2016

.UPDATE...

THE MORE BREAKS OF SUNSHINE WE GET THIS MORNING, THE MORE
PROBABLE SEVERE STORMS WILL BE THIS AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE EAST COAST. ADDITIONAL LIFT WILL BE PROVIDED BY THE NEARING
FRONT, WHICH IS PROGGED A LITTLE FASTER THAN PREVIOUS FORECASTS. A
LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS POSSIBLE, QLCS IN
NATURE. ALTHOUGH SURFACE WINDS WILL BE VEERING TODAY, AN ISOLATED
TORNADO CAN`T BE RULED OUT EVEN ALONG THE QLCS. IN ADDITION, NEAR
TERM MODELS SEEM TO BE FOCUSING ON STRONG CELLS DEVELOPING LATE PM
JUST OFFSHORE EXTREME SW FL, RACING ENE TOWARDS MIAMI-DADE, JUST
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. PRECIP DECREASES RAPIDLY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE THIS PM WITH THE FRONT PERHAPS
CLEARING PARTS OF THE WEST COAST AND THE LAKE BY 0Z.

[NDG]

Wow, this is some of the strongest winds reported so far this morning, I think that tornadic cell went fairly close through the Ft Myers Int'l Airport.

Conditions at: KRSW (FORT MYERS , FL, US) observed 1621 UTC 15 January 2016
Temperature: 22.8°C (73°F)
Dewpoint: 20.6°C (69°F) [RH = 87%]
Pressure (altimeter): 29.73 inches Hg (1006.9 mb)
Winds: from the SSW (210 degrees) at 40 MPH (35 knots; 18.2 m/s)
gusting to 53 MPH (46 knots; 23.9 m/s)
Visibility: 0.25 miles (0.40 km)
Ceiling: 1300 feet AGL
Clouds: broken clouds at 1300 feet AGL
overcast cloud deck at 2000 feet AGL
Weather: VCTS +RA FG (thunderstorm in vicinity, heavy rain, fog)

[NDG]

Conditions at: KRSW (FORT MYERS , FL, US) observed 1630 UTC 15 January 2016
Temperature: 21.7°C (71°F)
Dewpoint: 20.6°C (69°F) [RH = 93%]
Pressure (altimeter): 29.76 inches Hg (1007.9 mb)
Winds: from the SW (230 degrees) at 40 MPH (35 knots; 18.2 m/s)
gusting to 60 MPH (52 knots; 27.0 m/s)
Visibility: 0.25 miles (0.40 km)
Ceiling: indefinite ceiling with vertical visibility of 1800 feet AGL
Clouds: obscured sky
Weather: VCTS +RA FG (thunderstorm in vicinity, heavy rain, fog)

[AdamFirst]

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1130 AM EST FRI JAN 15 2016

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MIAMI HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHWESTERN COLLIER COUNTY IN SOUTHWESTERN FLORIDA...
GLADES COUNTY IN SOUTHERN FLORIDA...
NORTHERN HENDRY COUNTY IN SOUTHERN FLORIDA...

* UNTIL 1215 PM EST

* AT 1127 AM EST...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A
TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR LEHIGH ACRES...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25
MPH. THERE ARE ADDITIONAL STORMS IN THE WARNING AREA THAT ARE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING TORNADOES.

HAZARD...TORNADO.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION.

IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT
SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED.
DAMAGE TO ROOFS...WINDOWS AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE
DAMAGE IS LIKELY.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
CLEWISTON...LABELLE...MOORE HAVEN...IMMOKALEE AND LAKEPORT.

[Sanibel]

Intense prolonged squall here. 5-6 inch per hour deluge brought pond over berm and into yard in half hour.


Highest water level of year occurring in dry season!

[AdamFirst]

Strong band stretching from Tequesta to Everglades City currently sweeping through.

Tornado warned embedded cell currently moving past Belle Glade toward eastern Palm Beach County

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
111 PM EST FRI JAN 15 2016

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MIAMI HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHEASTERN PALM BEACH COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA...

* UNTIL 145 PM EST

* AT 110 PM EST...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING BOTH
TORNADOES AND EXTENSIVE STRAIGHT LINE WIND DAMAGE WERE LOCATED NEAR
LION COUNTRY SAFARI PARK...OR 13 MILES SOUTHEAST OF CANAL POINT...
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

HAZARD...TORNADO.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION.

IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT
SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED.
DAMAGE TO ROOFS...WINDOWS AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE
DAMAGE IS LIKELY.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
WEST PALM BEACH...JUPITER...PALM BEACH GARDENS...RIVIERA BEACH AND
PALM BEACH.

[AdamFirst]

Reports of funnel clouds in Belle Glade and Loxahatchee

[AdamFirst]

Tornado watch extended south into Broward and Miami-Dade

Line continues to gather strength over Gulf and SW Florida coast as it pushes east

WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION FOR WATCH 3
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
138 PM EST FRI JAN 15 2016

FLC011-086-152200-
/O.EXA.KMFL.TO.A.0003.000000T0000Z-160115T2200Z/

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS EXTENDED TORNADO WATCH 3 TO
INCLUDE THE FOLLOWING AREAS UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON

IN FLORIDA THIS WATCH INCLUDES 2 COUNTIES

IN SOUTH FLORIDA

BROWARD MIAMI-DADE

THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...FORT LAUDERDALE AND MIAMI.

[AdamFirst]

After hours of persistent light to moderate rainfall, the rain has stopped in West Dade and the sun is peeking through the thin clouds.

Still got about an hour, maybe less until the band moves through down here.

[Sanibel]

Sun out here. Warm 70's.

[NDG]

Another round of severe wx for the FL Peninsula tonight and early tomorrow morning. Here is the latest from the SPC.

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0700 AM CST SAT JAN 16 2016

VALID 161300Z - 171200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE CNTRL AND SRN FL
PENINSULA...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE NCNTRL FL PENINSULA...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE CNTRL AND SERN TX
COASTAL AREAS...

...SUMMARY...
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE MIDDLE TO UPPER TEXAS COASTAL
AREAS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SOME RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER. A
MORE SUBSTANTIVE RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED ACROSS
THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA LATE TONIGHT.

...SYNOPSIS...

BROAD CYCLONIC UPPER FLOW PATTERN WILL PERSIST OVER THE ERN TWO
THIRDS OF THE U.S. TODAY. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS
REGIME WILL MOVE THROUGH TX BEFORE EMERGING OVER THE WRN GULF THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NRN GULF TONIGHT
AND APPROACH THE FL PENINSULA TOWARD 12Z SUNDAY. IN RESPONSE TO
FORCING ACCOMPANYING THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH...A CYCLONE WILL DEVELOP
JUST OFF THE TX COAST AND CONTINUE EWD THROUGH THE NRN
GULF...REACHING THE NRN FL PENINSULA BY 12Z SUNDAY. PRECEDING THE
CYCLONE...A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NWD THROUGH THE SRN AND CNTRL FL
PENINSULA LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY.

...CNTRL AND SRN FL PENINSULA...

RICHER GULF MOISTURE WILL BEGIN RETURNING NWD THROUGH SRN AND CNTRL
FL TONIGHT IN ASSOCIATION WITH A STRENGTHENING SLY LLJ ACCOMPANYING
THE PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TROUGH. AT LEAST MID 60S F SFC DEWPOINTS
ARE EXPECTED INTO CNTRL FL WITH NEAR 70F DEWPOINTS LIKELY OVER THE
SRN THIRD OF THE PENINSULA. THE ADVECTION OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
BE THE PRIMARY DESTABILIZATION MECHANISM...BUT OVERALL CAPE VALUES
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOW DUE TO TIME OF DAY AND POOR LAPSE RATES.
MUCAPE AOB 500 J/KG IS EXPECTED OVER CNTRL FL WITH VALUES AOB 800
J/KG FARTHER SOUTH. STORMS SHOULD EVOLVE INTO A LINEAR MCS OVER THE
GULF...REACHING THE WRN FL PENINSULA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
SUNDAY. POTENTIAL WILL ALSO EXIST FOR A FEW DISCRETE STORMS TO
DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE MCS AS THE LLJ INCREASES TO 60+ KT WITHIN
MOISTENING WARM SECTOR. THE RESULTING LARGE 0-1 KM HODOGRAPHS WILL
PROMOTE A THREAT FOR LOW-LEVEL MESOCYCLONES WITH ANY DISCRETE
SUPERCELLS AS WELL AS EMBEDDED MESO-VORTICES WITHIN LINE SEGMENTS.
DAMAGING WIND AND ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS. WILL
MAINTAIN SLIGHT RISK CATEGORY THIS UPDATE GIVEN AN EXPECTED MARGINAL
THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT...BUT AN ENHANCED RISK WOULD BE WARRANTED
IF IT BEGINS TO APPEAR INSTABILITY WILL BE GREATER THAN CURRENTLY
ANTICIPATED.

[NDG]

After the severe wx this weekend the coldest air of the season is coming, thanks to the -AO and -NAO it will will penetrate the peninsula down to S FL, but thankfully not as much as earlier indicated by models. Looks like the west coast of FL will be the coldest Wednesday morning because of the High centered to the north of the Peninsula.

Here are the latest MOS forecasted lows for Tuesday and Wednesday mornings.

Jax: 33, 29
Tallahassee: 31, 26
Ocala: 33, 29
Orlando: 44, 39
Tampa: 43, 38
Ft Myers: 44, 40
Miami: 54, 53
West Palm: 50, 50

[Sanibel]

We got 4 1/4 inches of rain yesterday.

48* predicted for Wednesday morning.