Texas Summer 2018

[Cpv17]

Over the past few days the GFS has been hinting off and on at a surge of moisture moving up north from the BOC in the long range. Anyone care to elaborate on that?

[Ntxw]

So let me get this straight, you claim the ridge pattern is not 'normal' but at the same time the trough pattern is also bad? So what is normal?

The proper summer pattern would be what was present earlier this month during 4th of July: where the westerlies remain locked up in Canada like they should be, allowing the ridge to settle north and expand longitudinally, bringing tropical easterly disturbances into Texas along the underside.

On the other hand, these type of troughing patterns, with the corresponding subsident ridge across Texas and the SW, are basically just fall/spring/winter patterns carrying into summer. Unless they are super broad, and/or are centered over Texas, these troughing patterns just aren't worth it for summer rain across the state.

I read through the blog and got a couple of impressions from it. First, the blogger does not mention that this is the usual pattern, only that it happens in intervals residing mostly during June-August. In fact from the first line they actually imply the west to east configuration as a general year round phenomenon. Secondly, the blogger is seemingly from the southeast US (Georgia) where they feel this type of ridge configuration the most with easterly flow, not actually in Texas which doesn't seem to me like what the post is aimed towards. So in short, from the link I do not get the perception that said pattern is "normal" but rather of the many different variations of 500mb patterns for a given period.

The 500mb summer ridge through reanalysis exists anywhere from the 4 corners region on the Western Side of the continent. There is also an extension of the eastern ridge (Bermuda) on the eastern side of the continent. It can see-saw between the two and even bridge, so to say one ridge is the "normal" is misleading.

[Ntxw]

In other news the high at DFW today was 93F. Dew-point was mostly in the 50s and actually tasted a little bit like early fall! I can smell it now...

Tomorrow begins August, the final month of the summer meteorological trifecta. Not long now till we move into the Fall Thread

[South Texas Storms]

Over the past few days the GFS has been hinting off and on at a surge of moisture moving up north from the BOC in the long range. Anyone care to elaborate on that?

I hope it happens!

12z Euro hinted at that too by the end of the run. GFS Ensemble has been hinting at it too over the past few days.

It seems like its a reasonable solution and could happen. We just need the ridge to lift far enough north to allow whatever surge of moisture reaches the Bay of Campeche to make it far enough north to impact TX.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

So let me get this straight, you claim the ridge pattern is not 'normal' but at the same time the trough pattern is also bad? So what is normal?

The proper summer pattern would be what was present earlier this month during 4th of July: where the westerlies remain locked up in Canada like they should be, allowing the ridge to settle north and expand longitudinally, bringing tropical easterly disturbances into Texas along the underside.

On the other hand, these type of troughing patterns, with the corresponding subsident ridge across Texas and the SW, are basically just fall/spring/winter patterns carrying into summer. Unless they are super broad, and/or are centered over Texas, these troughing patterns just aren't worth it for summer rain across the state.

I read through the blog and got a couple of impressions from it. First, the blogger does not mention that this is the usual pattern, only that it happens in intervals residing mostly during June-August. In fact from the first line they actually imply the west to east configuration as a general year round phenomenon. Secondly, the blogger is seemingly from the southeast US (Georgia) where they feel this type of ridge configuration the most with easterly flow, not actually in Texas which doesn't seem to me like what the post is aimed towards. So in short, from the link I do not get the perception that said pattern is "normal" but rather of the many different variations of 500mb patterns for a given period.

The 500mb summer ridge through reanalysis exists anywhere from the 4 corners region on the Western Side of the continent. There is also an extension of the eastern ridge (Bermuda) on the eastern side of the continent. It can see-saw between the two and even bridge, so to say one ridge is the "normal" is misleading.

Climatology puts a 500 MB high near the four corner region for the summer months. We can look at reanalysis maps to show this, but thats what it will show. The blog is showing a pattern that occurs but is not normal for the summer. East coast would be muuuuucccchhhhh hotter all the time if that were the case.

[Brent]

In other news the high at DFW today was 93F. Dew-point was mostly in the 50s and actually tasted a little bit like early fall! I can smell it now...

Tomorrow begins August, the final month of the summer meteorological trifecta. Not long now till we move into the Fall Thread

August... The month the averages start dropping!!!

[FunNestlé]

I read through the blog and got a couple of impressions from it. First, the blogger does not mention that this is the usual pattern, only that it happens in intervals residing mostly during June-August. In fact from the first line they actually imply the west to east configuration as a general year round phenomenon. Secondly, the blogger is seemingly from the southeast US (Georgia) where they feel this type of ridge configuration the most with easterly flow, not actually in Texas which doesn't seem to me like what the post is aimed towards. So in short, from the link I do not get the perception that said pattern is "normal" but rather of the many different variations of 500mb patterns for a given period.

The 500mb summer ridge through reanalysis exists anywhere from the 4 corners region on the Western Side of the continent. There is also an extension of the eastern ridge (Bermuda) on the eastern side of the continent. It can see-saw between the two and even bridge, so to say one ridge is the "normal" is misleading.

Do note that I refer to "proper patterns" based on what is expected from climate genetics: the paradigm of climates based on wind belts and their associated seasonal shifts. I'm not necessarily referring to "norms" experienced over some years, which may or may not obey the paradigm.

As the paradigm pertains to Texas, the state is located on a subtropical "eastern" coast, due to the Gulf of Mexico. This would call for a humid subtropical influence in the climate, dictated by a normal pattern of winter-time mid-latitude cyclones from the westerlies, convective summer storms from the tropical easterlies (trade winds), and periods of calm in the transition months as the subtropical ridges make their migrations. The semi-arid and arid climates of Texas would obey this pattern as well, just with much less rainfall.
https://books.google.com/books?id=BzK0d ... &q&f=false
https://books.google.com/books?id=sxdqg ... er&f=false
https://books.google.com/books?id=ZJtk1 ... &q&f=false

I linked to the blog more to show an illustration of the pattern that I was referring to. Here is another illustration, but based on the pattern seen earlier in 4th of July:

 https://twitter.com/spann/status/1014585808202985472




But, while the blog does mention westerly influence for fall, spring, and winter...it clearly identifies summer as a time for tropical easterlies. It also mentions the influence such patterns have on Texas, in the paragraph below the graphic. The last paragraph then points out how the jet-stream was farther south than normal for much of the summer so far that year (2013), bringing wetter conditions to the south...and not-so-coincidentally dry conditions in Texas that year.

Obviously, North America, being the volatile continent that it is, would feature many years where the proper pattern isn't obeyed. You get waviness in the jetstream that, in turn, influences the number of cells, expansiveness, positioning, etc of the ridge. But it still stands that a farther north jet stream, as in a true summer pattern, would allow for less centering of the ridge over Texas, so that any variations in the ridge that bring subsidence wind up being transient rather than prolonged and stagnant. As a result, Texas sees more ample rainfall.

[FunNestlé]

Climatology puts a 500 MB high near the four corner region for the summer months. We can look at reanalysis maps to show this, but thats what it will show. The blog is showing a pattern that occurs but is not normal for the summer. East coast would be muuuuucccchhhhh hotter all the time if that were the case.

...Climatology based simply on the patterns that played out over the years, many of which likely did not obey proper paradigms of climate, especially in a continent as volatile as North America (i.e. jet stream farther south and/or amplified than normal).

That ridge pattern shown in the blog is far more aligned with proper climate paradigm than the reanalysis maps you mention, as it features the jet stream well retreated into Canada, where it normally is during summer. And yes, the East Coast (and Eastern US as a whole) would be much warmer: no more worries of delayed seasons due to a stagnant upper trough.

[tolakram]

That ridge pattern shown in the blog is far more aligned with proper climate paradigm than the reanalysis maps you mention, as it features the jet stream well retreated into Canada, where it normally is during summer. And yes, the East Coast (and Eastern US as a whole) would be much warmer: no more worries of delayed seasons due to a stagnant upper trough.

Feel free to start a thread about this but let's keep this one more observational. This is not the place to discuss big picture weather mechanics, just Texas conditions and chat.

[Yukon Cornelius]

63 this morning at the house! Feels wonderful. Bring on fall!

[Ntxw]

DFW had a low this morning of 68F with a slight N breeze. Wonderful!

[SoupBone]

For the sake of my own sanity, I walked around and looked at the different types of leaves, observed yards in the neighborhood, etc. I saw everything from pine needles to oak leaves, and again because my neighborhood is sprinkler heavy, the yards are still green and pristine.

So I guess my neighborhood is an anomaly, but couple the dropped leaves and the temp drop from the "cold front", if I had just awaken from a coma and asked me what season it was, I'd say Fall!

[weatherdude1108]

Even though I didn't get any rain, it felt really nice out this morning walking the dog. The temp was 75 degrees and humidity was only 47%, versus 79 with 80% humidity. It truly felt like a "Fall" morning.

Although the caveat to that is that we need the humidity for it to rain again. But it's a nice break from the norm none-the-less.

[weatherdude1108]

This would be a nice little bullseye to control the wildfires that have been in the hill country recently.

[Haris]

EPS trending wetter day 10-15

[TeamPlayersBlue]

This is the last post i want to make about this subject. I've learned so much from you guys, more than i could imagine. I think we need to set the record straight on the discussion from above. This is the avg. 500 MB heights for the world from 1980 to 2010 over the main summer months of June - August. If he wants to respond, up to the mods, but I won't respond at all. Just want to make sure we are getting the facts straight and there is no confusion.

[Haris]

[Portastorm]

Hmm ... that screams tropical mischief from the Gulf.

[South Texas Storms]

12z Euro Ensemble Mean also trended much wetter across a large part of Texas over the next 2 weeks. Maybe we will have a rare wet August this year?!

[SoupBone]

12z Euro Ensemble Mean also trended much wetter across a large part of Texas over the next 2 weeks. Maybe we will have a rare wet August this year?!

I was going to ask, this doesn't necessarily mean tropical, but just an overall possibility of increased moisture?