Texas Fall 2018

[utpmg]

Dang, the boil notice didn't hit my phone til I'd already left for work. Got all kinds of water and filters at the house. At work...not so much.

[Ralph's Weather]

The pre Halloween system looks like it is going to not have the SW extension like models had shown last week, but the post Halloween pattern still looks chilly with a -EPO and either a western or plains based longwave trough.

[Haris]

I’m in the boil water area in W Austin too.

No one has ever seen such a widespread notice here before in Austin. But the panic is real! It’s crazy! LOL . Shelves are empty

[South Texas Storms]

A large area of rain is already moving into TX from Mexico. The southern half of the state will likely be quite wet over the next few days, with north TX expected to get into the action on Wednesday.

[Cpv17]

Tbh I really don’t see any strong signs of any significant fronts coming through anytime soon. At least not within the next 10 days.

[weatherdude1108]

I’m in the boil water area in W Austin too.

No one has ever seen such a widespread notice here before in Austin. But the panic is real! It’s crazy! LOL . Shelves are empty

Yeah, I checked out the Cedar Park site, and they said they get their water from a different part of Lake Travis than Austin does, but I think Austin gets theirs mostly from Lake Austin(?). CP gets theirs from the Sandy Creek arm of Travis they said. Crazy about the bottled water! They brought in cases of bottled water for us here at work. I had already filled up a thermos of my filtered water from the house. This panic reminds me of the perceived "gas shortage" situation during Harvey, when everyone and their dog was filling up, going as far as filling up poly tanks in the back of their trucks of gasoline. That's safe!lol Then the panic died down after a week or so.

But this water thing is good to be safe about. The water dept. needs to cover themselves. It's just the world of social media creates these "OH NO!" (clean version) panic reaction events.lol

[Haris]

Models not too impressive... I don't know why...

Most I see is 1.3" here

[lukem]

Models not too impressive... I don't know why...

Most I see is 1.3" here

This is welcome news for most of us. Last week when the GFS was showing 12+ inches for this system on parts of Texas that were already experiencing historic flooding, I thought we were headed for a major disaster this week. Outside of the Upper Colorado lakes, the state is in great shape water wise (they even caught substantial runoff in October).

[Haris]

Models not too impressive... I don't know why...

Most I see is 1.3" here

This is welcome news for most of us. Last week when the GFS was showing 12+ inches for this system on parts of Texas that were already experiencing historic flooding, I thought we were headed for a major disaster this week. Outside of the Upper Colorado lakes, the state is in great shape water wise (they even caught substantial runoff in October).

Agreed... I was referring more to why this storm will produce much lower totals compare to other epac storms? Speed?

[funster]

It looks like models show the storm taking an easterly turn and when the low reaches the gulf it consolidates somewhat and pulls the moisture closer to the low so that most of the heavier rain is in the gulf and along the Texas coast. That might be why the models are showing less rain in central and northern Texas, but I'm mostly guessing here. This might prevent DFW from breaking the October rainfall record although the models could still be underplaying the setup.

Update: Latest GFS run also showing some rain on Halloween that might push DFW over the top.

[Ralph's Weather]

It looks like models show the storm taking an easterly turn and when the low reaches the gulf it consolidates somewhat and pulls the moisture closer to the low so that most of the heavier rain is in the gulf and along the Texas coast. That might be why the models are showing less rain in central and northern Texas, but I'm mostly guessing here. This might prevent DFW from breaking the October rainfall record although the models could still be underplaying the setup.

Update: Latest GFS run also showing some rain on Halloween that might push DFW over the top.

Yep, just like what happens in the winter to take away snow from N TX and bring rain to SE TX. Once a Gulf low forms it consolidates moisture towards it and away from the upper level feature.

[utpmg]

*sigh* collateral damage. Looks like the boil water notice for Austin may continue for another two weeks:
https://www.statesman.com/news/20181023 ... icials-say

We gonna be stinky and thirsty here.

[dhweather]

The 12Z 12km NAM is painting 2" of rain across most of the metroplex.

[dhweather]

The 12Z GFS is not as aggressive with rain in the metroplex, mostly 1/2 to 1"

[Ralph's Weather]

The 12Z GFS is not as aggressive with rain in the metroplex, mostly 1/2 to 1"

http://i64.tinypic.com/r9edg5.png

GFS showing a stronger surface low right on the coast with a weaker upper level shortwave over NW TX. The NAM does not consolidate things quite as fast and it is over SE TX. So it is a question of if the surface low or the shortwave is more dominant.

[Ralph's Weather]

I am still watching the post Halloween weekend with intrigue.

[hamburgerman7070]

I am still watching the post Halloween weekend with intrigue.

What is so intriguing about it ralph? In all seriousness

[weatherdude1108]

*sigh* collateral damage. Looks like the boil water notice for Austin may continue for another two weeks:
https://www.statesman.com/news/20181023 ... icials-say

We gonna be stinky and thirsty here.

Just saw a 12:35pm update that two weeks is a worst case scenario. Ban could be lifted sooner.

12:35 p.m. update: As Travis County prepares for double-digit days without clean water, Austin Water officials said they only think residents will be asked to boil water for a “handful of days.”

“Much of that estimate, however, depends on variables such as weather and consumption demands,” said Austin Water Director Greg Mezaros. “We continue to make long-term plans in the event this situation isn’t quickly resolved. We will continue to monitor the situation and ask that (the) public continue to be diligent in reducing their water usage.”

Earlier in the morning, county officials said they were preparing for 10 to 14 days of the boil order. County Judge Sarah Eckhardt said that estimate is a worst-case scenario, and that the ban could be lifted sooner.

[Portastorm]

Oh ... don't get me started on this ... the whole thing has turned into a classic textbook example on how not to handle an emergency situation. The mayor of Austin and his crew has mismanaged and bumbled and stumbled their way through since the flooding began. It is absolutely ridiculous that a large city with 888,000 people should be under a boil water notice for any length of significant time. In the city's zealous efforts to attract as many people and jobs it could, the city grew much faster than the infrastructure did and now we have way too many people and not enough roads and faulty infrastructure, let alone a piss-poor emergency management planning effort. But I digress ... it's about the weather here.

I'm happy to see the models back off some on the precip amounts they were showing earlier this week for the Hill Country and Austin.

[Cpv17]

Models keep flip flopping on the cold front for the first part of November. One run shows it, the next run will have it east of us and we just get a glancing blow, and then the next run is crickets. Not enough consistency for me to jump onboard yet.