Texas Fall 2023

[jasons2k]

It has arrived.

[Cpv17]

It has arrived.
https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20231027/ef88ec7f5488378d1777985398076aa9.jpg

Looks much worse a few miles north of you.

[Brent]

I wouldnt be surprised if we stay in the 30s all day Sunday with a cold and windy rain...

It was 80 degrees today... I don't think people realize how cold it's gonna be. Our coldest low so far this season is 40 and we still warmed up into the 60s that day with sunshine

[Ralph's Weather]

Nothing crazy rain wise here in East Texas but nice steady rain with periods of heavier. Great soaking rain which we need. This should continue through weekend. That front looks serious and I will start looking at upper levels now that we are closing in for sleet probabilities on Monday. Will be a chilly but nice Halloween with highs in 40s likely.

[Stratton23]

The NAM has a 1059 MB arctic high centered over colorado at hour 84, thats insane, but i highly suspect the global models are definitely underestimating this front and the associated cold airmass behind it

[gpsnowman]

The NAM has a 1059 MB arctic high centered over colorado at hour 84, thats insane, but i highly suspect the global models are definitely underestimating this front and the associated cold airmass behind it

Wow really?? That's impressive and crazy it is only 84 hours out. I knew colder air was on the way but that is very strong for this time of year if my winter brain is correct.

[Stratton23]

gpsnowman yep! If that verifies, many places wont get out of the 30’s for highs, this front is going to be a doosy

[rwfromkansas]

I am just west of 35W so I can often get to freezing when DFW doesn’t. So maybe I could if it comes in so strong. Crazy to me this early.

Putting down fall preemergent tomorrow. Too late, but the heat earlier led me to wait and then I didn’t want to do so with heavy rain this week. Oops.

[utpmg]

Interesting talk on the news with a hydrologist about Lake Travis. Might fill a foot.

Basically he said two rain events like this over the next two days might fill it up. But two events over two months, not going to change.

https://www.kxan.com/weather-traffic-qa ... ravis/amp/

Well, on the one hand, Travis is already up two feet, with more on the way. The Llano just crested for the second time in Llano, and there's also more coming from the upper Colorado. And some from the Pedernales, not enough though. But on the other hand true; the deficit is so great it'll take a lot to 'fill it up.'

[weatherdude1108]

Interesting talk on the news with a hydrologist about Lake Travis. Might fill a foot.

Basically he said two rain events like this over the next two days might fill it up. But two events over two months, not going to change.

https://www.kxan.com/weather-traffic-qa ... ravis/amp/

Well, on the one hand, Travis is already up two feet, with more on the way. The Llano just crested for the second time in Llano, and there's also more coming from the upper Colorado. And some from the Pedernales, not enough though. But on the other hand true; the deficit is so great it'll take a lot to 'fill it up.'

That's great news! I saw there was a second crest, nice surprise! Yeah, I'm guessing the deficit is a few years in the making. Then the landscape got fried this past Summer, adding insult to injury. Recovery will take some time.

I'm guessing that with vegetation starting to go dormant heading into Fall and Winter, plants and trees won't be sucking up as much water, and it'll run off easier to the lakes and move past roots to get to groundwater where there are aquifers.

Looks like the hill country has a slight risk of excessive rainfall today. Priming the pump!

[Brent]

OKC has already dropped 20 degrees... Final hours of the 70s here. I don't even see a high of 70 anytime soon

[DallasAg]

OKC has already dropped 20 degrees... Final hours of the 70s here. I don't even see a high of 70 anytime soon

Front showing up nicely on KDFW radar. Nice temp contrasts in NW Texas - Wichita Falls 73 degrees...45 miles to the west in Vernon it's 53.

[Ntxw]

Interesting talk on the news with a hydrologist about Lake Travis. Might fill a foot.

Basically he said two rain events like this over the next two days might fill it up. But two events over two months, not going to change.

https://www.kxan.com/weather-traffic-qa ... ravis/amp/

Well, on the one hand, Travis is already up two feet, with more on the way. The Llano just crested for the second time in Llano, and there's also more coming from the upper Colorado. And some from the Pedernales, not enough though. But on the other hand true; the deficit is so great it'll take a lot to 'fill it up.'

That's great news! I saw there was a second crest, nice surprise! Yeah, I'm guessing the deficit is a few years in the making. Then the landscape got fried this past Summer, adding insult to injury. Recovery will take some time.

I'm guessing that with vegetation starting to go dormant heading into Fall and Winter, plants and trees won't be sucking up as much water, and it'll run off easier to the lakes and move past roots to get to groundwater where there are aquifers.

Looks like the hill country has a slight risk of excessive rainfall today. Priming the pump!

Anecdotally from droughts of the recent past, I've noticed there are three trackable phases. First is the atmospheric droughts, that's when the rains become significantly outnumbered by dry days and you see the abnormally dry periods creep up into severe drought or more over time. Which then comes the soil drought, vegetation, ground moisture conditions deteriorate. We're likely deep into this phase. Hydrological (lakes and rivers) is usually the last to go and last to recover. It will take a season or two of much above normal rain to resolve.

[wxman57]

I'm not liking this at all. Heading up to the Red River to reinforce my secondary cold air wall...

[Yukon Cornelius]

Front is coming through earlier than expected. Dropped from 71 this morning to 57 already. Also, looks like a few freezes are on tap for this weekend into early next week.

[Stratton23]

Cant wait for that cold air to reach me here in SE Texas, these 80’s are terrible, cold weather is the best! Its time to break out the fire pit for a change lol

[rwfromkansas]

That front seems to be booking it. I thought I would be able to do lawn work before it gets here. Uh, maybe not.

[Ralph's Weather]

Front very slightly ahead of schedule but nothing major. Monday looks raw with highs in the 30s and low 40s for much of the state and sleet could mix in with the rain showers. Looking like there could be a layer of sub freezing air just above the surface across the northern half of the state with that layer being deeper as you move NW but as usual more moisture SE. I'll enjoy some nominal sleet in October for sure.

[jasons2k]

1.13” here yesterday

[HockeyTx82]

I think the front is through Ponder....