STORM2K

DallasAg wrote:

bubba hotep wrote:00z HRRR gets a lot of people rain overnight and into tomorrow morning.

https://m2o.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/hrrr/2024050500/040/qpf_acc-imp.us_sc.png

3.74" IMBY North Dallas about 5 miles ENE from KDAL. Seems like Dallas County has consistently been the winner this spring. Hopefully a drier week ahead.

Tbh, the last 3-4 weeks have reminded me of what I remember spring being like in Texas when I was growing up (Plano), especially with all of the activity that west Texas has been getting. Daily severe weather, mostly way west of us, organizing into squall lines or MCS that sweep in over night. In various forms or fashions through June. In a world where nothing is like it used to be, it's nice to see something familiar.

Now if Mother Nature can find a way to fill in the holes for those who've missed out hopefully we can enter summer with enough of a surplus to stave off the heat dome or at least delay its onset.

Just over an inch at DFW, but Love picked up 3.5"

Looking like another bust in SA and the Hill Country. What a cruel joke. This area just can't catch a break and as a result some areas of severe drought just won't go away.

12z HRRR is just downright nasty with what looks like 2 rounds of supercells for OK with an overnight threat for the eastern half of the state. Also more of a semi-discrete mode in KS. Wouldn't be surprised to see the moderate expanded east. Starting to get a little more concerned now

South Texas Storms wrote:Looking like another bust in SA and the Hill Country. What a cruel joke. This area just can't catch a break and as a result some areas of severe drought just won't go away.

Yeah, it's starting to look like South Texas might have to bet on an active tropical season, which does seem likely.

Well, that’s that for TX for awhile. Yeah, there are “chances” every day this week, but more summer popcorn storms. I’m betting most see nothing. OK and KS will get a lot though.

Hopefully rain comes back before the heat ridge.

South Texas Storms wrote:Looking like another bust in SA and the Hill Country. What a cruel joke. This area just can't catch a break and as a result some areas of severe drought just won't go away.

I wouldn’t write it off yet.

The eastern and northeastern half of the state is doing very well rainfall rise. Most are sitting at 15-25" for the year with several sites already over 30" in east and far southeast Texas.

Mid May will feature an anomalous cutoff trough over the north-central and central conus resulting in cooler than normal period coming up.

While coverage may not be as widespread as models had depicted yesterday, storms are beginning to fire across the SA metro.

The rain is welcomed, but I need a dry slot now. It will take 2 weeks for the ground to dry out. Both front and back yards are standing in 2-3" of water in the lowest spots.

Received about 3" of rain over night, which makes 2 of the last 3 weekend multi inch rains here at the house.

Where the I20/820/287 construction project is, the river under I20 is several feet above out of its banks and the equipment sitting under the bridges are just islands.

Tomorrow certainly seems to be shaping up as a dangerous weather day from the Red River to the north…

 https://x.com/mikemorgankfor/status/1787172489908404514

rwfromkansas wrote:

mmmmsnouts wrote:This is wild - 3 feet of hail east of San Angelo reported by NWS in a flash flood warning:

https://kamala.cod.edu/offs/KSJT/2405050134.wgus54.html

I haven’t seen any photos of this. I call shenanigans.

If there was 3 feet, there would be photos.

3 inches I could see.

It seems to be a wild exaggeration. Is NWS San Angelo now run by clown show storm chasers? They doubled down on their claim with photos that show only a small layer of hail, maybe a few inches. The equivalent of a chaser streaming an EF1 and exclaiming, "Wow! Massive mile wide wedge tornado!"

 https://twitter.com/NWSSanAngelo/status/1786955636598878415




Here's the original source with video that gives better context.

https://www.facebook.com/100029301141196/posts/pfbid02Amw3jh4PgnvjRYrBwV2yD7Hupa9e3qe6fixJEueUjQKySirKfY1ShEYTnMiPDhbTl/?mibextid=WC7FNe

(Facebook, but I was able to click away the login screen to see the videos)

Fifty Rock wrote:Can’t seem to find rainfall totals for shackelford county texas

We had 1.8 inches in one pasture about 8 miles SE of Albany. Eastern part of the ranch only got 1.1 inches. Definitely rained more closer to town.

Anti-freeze wrote:

rwfromkansas wrote:

mmmmsnouts wrote:This is wild - 3 feet of hail east of San Angelo reported by NWS in a flash flood warning:

https://kamala.cod.edu/offs/KSJT/2405050134.wgus54.html

I haven’t seen any photos of this. I call shenanigans.

If there was 3 feet, there would be photos.

3 inches I could see.

It seems to be a wild exaggeration. Is NWS San Angelo now run by clown show storm chasers? They doubled down on their claim with photos that show only a small layer of hail, maybe a few inches. The equivalent of a chaser streaming an EF1 and exclaiming, "Wow! Massive mile wide wedge tornado!"

https://twitter.com/NWSSanAngelo/status/1786955636598878415

Here's the original source with video that gives better context.

https://www.facebook.com/100029301141196/posts/pfbid02Amw3jh4PgnvjRYrBwV2yD7Hupa9e3qe6fixJEueUjQKySirKfY1ShEYTnMiPDhbTl/?mibextid=WC7FNe

(Facebook, but I was able to click away the login screen to see the videos)

I completely agree. That’s not even close to one foot, yet alone 3 feet. They’re trippin balls lol

Navasota River near Easterly crested over 1.5' above the previous record, near Normandy almost 3' above the record.

So far the Brazos below the merge is not as bad, Hempstead forecast to crest 9' below record, similar for near I-10 at San Felipe. Richmond projections don't go far enough out for a crest, but on Friday are predicted to be 11' below the record, not quite at the minor flood stage. However, the I-69 crossing is projected to 67.7'' on Friday, within a foot of the moderate flooding stage. Maybe these counties allowing developers to fill in most of the floodplain, leaving just a small levee protected channel, wasn't a wise decision...

Elsewhere, the Trinity may be cresting now at Liberty, about 6 inches below their record. Projected to flirt with the highest level at Moss Bluff, and came within about an inch of the record at US 59 near Shepherd. The San Jacinto is receding at I-45, I-69, and at Sheldon, 5', 10', and 9' below records. E. Fork of the San Jacinto at the Grand Parkway is also receding, it came within 3.5' of the record.

https://water.noaa.gov/

Cpv17 wrote:

South Texas Storms wrote:Looking like another bust in SA and the Hill Country. What a cruel joke. This area just can't catch a break and as a result some areas of severe drought just won't go away.

I wouldn’t write it off yet.

I'm afraid it's over. Same general areas keep getting screwed over. Very frustrating.

South Texas Storms wrote:

Cpv17 wrote:

South Texas Storms wrote:Looking like another bust in SA and the Hill Country. What a cruel joke. This area just can't catch a break and as a result some areas of severe drought just won't go away.

I wouldn’t write it off yet.

I'm afraid it's over. Same general areas keep getting screwed over. Very frustrating.

That MCS hurt us overnight. Worked over/stabilized atmosphere across SA and areas across southern HC. Timing has really hurt our cause as well. If we're not getting much today (seems more likely now), at least areas southwest and south are getting some much-needed rainfall.

South Texas Storms wrote:

Cpv17 wrote:

South Texas Storms wrote:Looking like another bust in SA and the Hill Country. What a cruel joke. This area just can't catch a break and as a result some areas of severe drought just won't go away.

I wouldn’t write it off yet.

I'm afraid it's over. Same general areas keep getting screwed over. Very frustrating.

Most likely, a tropical system will come and flood all of STX in a few months. That’s how it works.

Yeah I don’t think the drought is going away anytime soon down here. As soon as I saw that outflow emerging off the MCS last night I knew we were screwed. Completely stabilized everything.

I was “lucky” enough to still pick up 0.4” at least. Did better than most in my area.

I don’t even care anymore, just ready to get rid of this awful humidity. I’d rather it just be dry if it won’t actually rain.

Was looking forward to the dry out and the WPC drops this on us



Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0229
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
553 PM EDT Sun May 05 2024

Areas affected...central to northeastern TX

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 052152Z - 060200Z

SUMMARY...Highly localized flash flooding may result over the next
3-5 hours from thunderstorms producing 1-2 in/hr rates atop
saturated soils. Coverage of storms and their organization appears
lower end, but recent heavy rainfall has increased the potential
for runoff across portions of central to northeastern TX.

DISCUSSION...Visible satellite imagery and lightning data
indicated widely scattered thunderstorms over portions of central
and eastern TX at 2145Z within a relatively clear region
accompanied by 1000 to 2000+ J/kg MLCAPE over central to
eastern/northeastern TX via the 21Z SPC mesoanalysis. These storms
were forming within a zone of elevated convergence, in the wake of
a departing upper level shortwave over the eastern TX/OK border.
Despite the weak axis of low level forcing, subsidence behind the
shortwave and an unfavorable upper level jet orientation makes
this region of TX hostile to high coverage of thunderstorm
development.

Nonetheless, the zone of elevated convergence is expected to drift
north over the next few hours with additional thunderstorm
development appearing likely via an existing cell over Robertson
County near Hearne (which produced 1.18 inches of rain in an hour
ending 2134Z...via Wunderground.com), and agitated cumulus on
visible imagery. Coverage of cells is likely to remain scattered
in nature through the evening, but some slow movement of any
robust cells that form may support 1-2 in/hr rainfall rates, on a
highly localized basis. Dissipation of any thunderstorms should
occur after sunset with the loss of daytime heating.

Heavy rain over the past 10 days or so across central to
northeastern TX, including 3 to 5+ inches over the past 24 hours
to the west of I-35, has resulted in saturated soils and reduced
infiltration capacity of additional rainfall. Any areas of renewed
flash flooding that occur are expected to remain localized and
likely lower end in magnitude.

Otto

ATTN...WFO...EWX...FWD...HGX...SHV...SJT...

ATTN...RFC...WGRFC...NWC...

What looked like the first stretch of real 90s for DFW has evaporated in the humidity to just upper 80s now. And really just one day.