Florida Weather

[psyclone]

well in fairness the probabilities of above aren't great...nevertheless even normal temps mean freeze potential is likely to be nil down the peninsula after the next week or so..and we're now halfway through the freeze season with not even a substantial threat thus far. in addition, the CPC has had a terrific record this winter with their 6-10 and 8-14 day outlooks. works for me.

[northjaxpro]

Currently 31 degrees at this early morming hour and with at least a couple of morr hours for temps to fall, upper 20s look very probable at my locale this morning.

The coldest day of this winter season is on tap today as the cold Polar High Dome entering the Lower MS River Valley will keep cold advection at the maximum across the peninsula today on northwest to notth winds. High temperatures today are only going to reach the upper 40s in most areas of the northern peninsula, and mid-upper 50s across the central peninsula. South Florida will see mainly lower-mid 60s.

Hard freeze looks likely across interior North and Northeast Florida tonight as the Polar High moves in closer to the peninsula . This will provide good radiational cooling across the area. Could be areas of freezing temps up to 10 hours across North Florida tonight into tomorrow morning. Lows are expected to drop well into the 20s, with temps getting likely as low as. low 20s out in the Panhandle, i.e. Crestview.

BTW, it will be a close in terms of the freeze line dropping down close to the I-4 corridor by Wednesday morning. Temps in the mid 30s look very likely tomorrow morning down to interior to interior areas of Volusia, Lake and Seminole counties.

The next in a series of southern stream storm systems along the subtropical.jet looks to arrive rapidly late this week. A potent storm system will develop over the Lower MS Valley eventually to migrate east to the Mid Atlantic region Friday'- Saturday period tthis weekend. There may be another potential of an active significant stormy weather period, although the latest models are showing the best dynamics may stay north of the peninsula with this next storm. We will watch closely late this week. More on this later.

[NDG]

Due to cloud cover temps did not fall as much as forecasted over central FL, a good 5 degrees warmer.
Tonight we may not be so lucky, widespread frost away from tidal waters and urban areas is a sure bet across all of central FL, but at least is not a freeze except for the usual colder spots of the Nature coast.

[northjaxpro]

Temperature bottomed out 28.4 degrees at 7:47 a.m. here at my home base. The fourth freeze this season, all occuring this month.

The coldest temp of the season is expected here tomorrow morning. Expecting mid-upper 20s this time tomorrow morning.

[Sanibel]

Needed a 3rd blanket last night. It was probably only around 49* or so but felt frigid like the worst winter nights. Only around 60* today but the sun came out making it warmer in the sun.

70* predicted for tomorrow and rebounding to 75* Thursday.

TWC says that Low is going to be very similar to the east coast snow storm of 1996 depositing over two feet in western Virginia and eastern West Virginia.

If you look on WV that Nino weather border from the Pacific is still over us and hasn't budged.

[JonathanBelles]

My extensive review of this past weekend's severe weather:
http://jonathanbelles.com/2016/01/19/se ... 17th-2016/

[NDG]

Here are the latest MOS forecasted lows for tomorrow morning:

Tallahassee: 28 F
JAX: 26 F
Daytona Beach: 33 F
Ocala: 27 F
Brooksville: 28 F
Orlando: 36 F
Melbourne: 36 F
Lakeland: 33 F
Tampa: 39 F
St Pete: 40 F
Ft Myers Int'l: 39 F
Naples: 42 F
Miami: 53 F
W Palm: 50 F

Personally I think some of these could be cold biased if the cloud cover does not completely clear out for portions of central and southern FL.

[NDG]

My extensive review of this past weekend's severe weather:
http://jonathanbelles.com/2016/01/19/se ... 17th-2016/

Awesome review!!! Nice job!

[AdamFirst]

Miami-Dade County has reported their first two cases of the Zika virus, a mosquito-borne illness similar to Dengue fever.

Let's hope for a few more prolonged cold spells down here

[NDG]

Miami-Dade County has reported their first two cases of the Zika virus, a mosquito-borne illness similar to Dengue fever.

Let's hope for a few more prolonged cold spells down here

There's actually 3 cases, two in Miami Dade and one in the Tampa area, all three traveled to South America where they acquired the virus, so in another words the mosquitoes in FL are not carrying the Zika virus, at least not yet. But I would not mind if they some do get killed but is not cold enough to kill them, we need a widespread freeze across central and southern FL.

[psyclone]

I recall seeing mosquitoes just 3 days after the great 2003 freeze which was a whopper around here. Any knockdown of the population by a freeze is very brief.

[northjaxpro]

Well, if the GFS is right, Saturday will be a very cold, blustery day as strong cold air advection would come rushing down right down deep into the peninsula behind the potent winter storm forecast to intensify off the Mid-Atlantic coast this weekend. Check out the partial thicknesses, with the 540 thickness line dropping all the way south to the I-4 corridor and the 546 line down into South Central Florida. If this verifies for Saturday, it will be a windy, cold day statewide courtesy of the tight northerly wind pressure gradient with the Polar High dropping south from the Mid-MS River Valley and the intensifying storm off the Mid-Atlantic. Those thickness values shown would likely keep high temps in North Florida mainly in the 40s, especially if there is any wrap-around residual low level cloudiness from the storm off the Mid-Atlantic region on Saturday



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Also, looking a bit farther out about a week from now, the 18Z GFS 204 hr run shows yet another potent storm system among this conveyor belt of southern stream storms along the SJT, looks to move through the SE U.S. and intensify as it moves north up the East Coast.

[northjaxpro]

Currently 33.2 degrees at the home base at this hour. Should be below freezing within the hour. Hard Freeze for sure tonight. Heading way down by tomorrow morning, with nearly 10 hours of freezing temps expected here and all across North Florida into tomorrow morning. NWS Jax office calling for 26 degrees in the morning.

EDIT: As I turn in for the night, temp now below freezing with frost forming outside in the yard. Excellent radiational cooling conditions tonight with that Cold High Pressure dome axis right over our region. Temp dropped 2.5 degrees in the past hour. Currently 30.7 degrees.

[NDG]

S FL and parts of central of FL got saved the high clouds once again this morning, unexpectedly the cloud cover moved in faster than what the models had shown, thus it looks like frost along the southern end of the I-4 corridor may have not formed as much as many thought.

[northjaxpro]

Yeah those high clouds really helped temps from falling at least 3-5 degrees more from the current readings down along the I-4 corridor and points southward.

28.4 degrees at sunrise at the home base this morning. Temps stabilized after I went to bed last night and is currently at the low this morning, altjough it may drop another degree in the next 30 minutes or so. Also, lots of frost across the Jax area this morning.

[Sanibel]

Think we hit 46*. Pretty winter cold. Went from 58* to 70* in 3 hours just now in warm sun.

Those clouds are the Nino weather border from the Pacific that's been in that stationary position for 3 weeks now. They were not at a high level when I put out the trash last night.

[AdamFirst]

NWS Miami barely has West Dade breaking above 60 degrees on Sunday, with lows in the mid 40s for Saturday and Sunday nights. Blustery as well.

[psyclone]

the near shore central leg of NWS Tampa bay's region (Englewood to Tarpon Springs) is calling for seas of 14-18 feet Saturday with 30-40 knot winds.

[northjaxpro]

We will really need to keep an eye on the storm potential on Friday across the peninsula, as a strong cold front, associated with the developing major winter storm moving across to the Mid Atlantic region, rapidly moves in across the state Friday into Friday night. Strong to possible severe thunderstorms may be possible again on Friday again, and another potential could exist in which we may have rotating cells based on CAPE and Helecity levels. Also, a very strong SW Low Level Jet at about 50 KTS is forecast to be over the North Florida region on Friday, which could definitely aid in the development of strong storms as well.

This potential definitely needs to be monitored closely, especially given a similar set-up with a strong Low Pressure area along the SJT caused tornadoes to develop and touch down across the Sarasota area last week, which killed a couple of people tragically.

[northjaxpro]

The Storm Prediction Center in Norman, Oklahoma has increased the potential of severe thunderstorms into the slight risk category for Friday for the Big bend area and much of north and north central Florida peninsula.

We are already seeing tornadic cells in the Lower MS Valley region of Arkansas and Louisiana, well out ahead of the developing storm system currently moving over eastern Texas.

I would not be surprised if the potential increased to a moderate risk in the next 12-24 hours going into Friday for the peninsula.