Florida Weather

[psyclone]

An onshore wind kept temps mostly in the low 40's around the bay area. we may be a touch colder tonight. looking forward to a warm up but perfectly content to settle for a reduction in wind in the near term.

[NDG]

No threat of a freeze tonight along the I-4 corridor today but a good chance for frost in sheltered areas, IMO.
With the NAO and AO going positive chances of a freeze for this area are going downhill through at least early next month, this may have been the lowest we will be getting for this entire winter season. Repeat of '82/'83 winter as I have been saying for a while.

[FireRat]

bottomed out at 42* this morning, slowly risen to 53* at this late hour despite sunshine. I doubt we'll get to 60 for a high here in western Broward County! It looks like it will be another cold night. maybe rivaling today's low?

[Sanibel]

Cold but quick and warming up tomorrow. 77* Tuesday.


A real plunger of a front. Almost made it to Jamaica on WV.

[NDG]

bottomed out at 42* this morning, slowly risen to 53* at this late hour despite sunshine. I doubt we'll get to 60 for a high here in western Broward County! It looks like it will be another cold night. maybe rivaling today's low?

Not sure about western Broward County, temps may fall fairly fast after sunset but models show onshore winds above the surface may bring some cloud cover to at least coastal SE FL after midnight, temps may start rising during pre-dawn hours.

[TheStormExpert]

From the NWS: Miami Twitter.

Today's high of 59 in West Palm Bch is the 1st time since 1/7/14 in which high temp doesn't reach 60. Still well above record cold max of 50

[FireRat]

Thanks for the info NDG, temps are in the upper 40s but I do notice dew points aren't much lower, so we may steady off into the overnight before the warm up tomorrow.

[northjaxpro]

30.2 degrees with Heavy frost at my home base this morning. The moderation trend with the temps begins today as the Polar High school shiffts east.

[NDG]

35.8 degrees at my neighborhood with light to moderate frost, grass mowing is officially over, at least for the next few weeks lol.
Yes Northjaxpro. moderating temps are taking over, another cold front in a couple of days but nothing close to this past one, with the NAO and AO continuing to go positive we will catch a nice break from the extreme cold temps.
CFSv2 model shows a wet pattern to continue for the Peninsula.

[AdamFirst]

SPC has posted a Marginal risk for central and southern Florida for Wednesday

....CENTRAL/SOUTHERN FLORIDA...
A NUMBER OF MODELS DO APPEAR SUGGESTIVE THAT A SIGNIFICANT CLUSTER
OF STORMS...DRIVEN BY ONE CONCENTRATED AREA OF FORCING FOR UPWARD
VERTICAL MOTION...MAY SPREAD INLAND ACROSS COASTAL AREAS
AROUND/SOUTH OF TAMPA BAY WEDNESDAY MORNING. GUIDANCE INDICATES
THAT THIS COULD BE ACCOMPANIED BY SUFFICIENT STRENGTHENING OF WIND
FIELDS FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION WITH A RISK FOR SEVERE WIND GUSTS
AND TORNADOES. IT SEEMS AT LEAST IMMEDIATE COASTAL AREAS WILL BE
IMPACTED...AND IF TIMING COINCIDES FAVORABLY WITH AT LEAST WEAK
INLAND DESTABILIZATION OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER...THIS THREAT MAY
EXTEND ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL PENINSULA...INCLUDING THE ORLANDO
METROPOLITAN AREA AND MELBOURNE VICINITY BY LATE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.

SUBSEQUENT WAVES OF VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT APPEAR POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE REST OF CENTRAL INTO SOUTHERN FLORIDA THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD...ASSOCIATED WITH SMALLER-SCALE
PERTURBATIONS PRECEDING THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW.
THESE MAY ALSO BE ACCOMPANIED BY RISKS FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND
TORNADOES. HOWEVER...AT THIS POINT...THE MODEL DISCREPANCIES...AND
OTHER UNCERTAINTIES TYPICAL FOR THIS TIME FRAME /DAY 3/...APPEAR TOO
LARGE TO INTRODUCE CATEGORICAL SLIGHT RISK PROBABILITIES AT THE
PRESENT TIME.

[Sanibel]

We also steadied in the upper 40's.

Quick warm up in bright sun.

[gatorcane]

long-range GFS just out brings a freeze deep into of the FL peninsula on Feb 10th, but it is far out there so let's see if we see any run-to-run consistency or not.

[NDG]

Because of NAO forecasted to stay positive range over the next couple of weeks, I really doubt such a forecast by the GFS will come to fruition, besides being in the fantasy range.

[AdamFirst]

NWS Miami disco

TUESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY... WHILE SOME DIFFERENCES REMAIN, BETTER
CONFIDENCE HAS EMERGED REGARDING THE EVOLUTION OF THE STORMY WEATHER
FOR TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.

ON THE SYNOPTIC SCALE, FULL LATITUDE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE
CENTRAL AND EVENTUALLY EASTERN US WED/THURS WITH AN ENHANCED
SOUTHERN SHORTWAVE DIGGING ACROSS TX/WESTERN GULF. COUPLED WITH THE
150KT PLUS JET STREAMING ACROSS THE GULF, WE WILL SEE ANOTHER GULF
LOW DEVELOPING TUES NIGHT AND MOVING EASTWARDS INTO THE PENINSULA
WED NIGHT. SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW TUESDAY NIGHT WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING IN AN INFLUX OF DEEP MOISTURE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA
WITH GFS ENSEMBLE PWATS AROUND 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL,OR
NEAR THE MAXIMUM FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR, AT 1.75-2". SURFACE
DEWPOINTS LOOK TO CLIMB BACK INTO THE MID-UPPER 60S, AND POSSIBLY
70S ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN PENINSULA.

WHILE IT LOOKS LIKE THE INSTABILITY WILL BE IN PLACE, DIFFERENCES
REMAIN IN THE STRENGTH OF THE WIND FIELDS AND TIMING/STRENGTH OF
SMALLER SCALE FEATURES THAT MAY TRIGGER STRONGER CONVECTION. ALL OF
SOUTH FLORIDA HAS BEEN PLACED UNDER A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE
STORMS FOR WEDNESDAY, WHICH MAY CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY MORNING.

IN ADDITION TO THE SEVERE STORM THREAT, THE POTENTIAL ALSO EXISTS
FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND A RISK OF AT LEAST URBAN TYPE MINOR FLOODING
WITH WPC PLACING THE REGION UNDER A SLIGHT RISK FOR EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL.

[NDG]

Latest from SPC:

THERE REMAINS BETTER CONSENSUS AMONG THE MODELS THAT A PLUME OF
SEASONABLY HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT AIR...EMANATING FROM THE CARIBBEAN
AND SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...WILL SURGE NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS
MUCH OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WELL IN ADVANCE OF THE MAIN IMPULSE. THIS WILL PROBABLY BE
CHARACTERIZED BY PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IN EXCESS OF 1.75 INCHES.
AT THE SAME TIME...SURFACE DEW POINTS MAY INCREASE THROUGH THE
MID/UPPER 60S...AS FAR NORTH AS THE CENTRAL PENINSULA...WHILE
PERHAPS APPROACHING 70F ACROSS THE KEYS AND SOUTHEAST FLORIDA
COASTAL AREAS.

...CENTRAL/SOUTHERN FLORIDA...
GUIDANCE...INCLUDING THE ECMWF/ECENS AND NAM/NCEP SREF...REMAINS
SUGGESTIVE THAT A SIGNIFICANT CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS MAY SPREAD
INLAND ACROSS GULF COASTAL AREAS WEDNESDAY MORNING...NEAR/SOUTH OF
TAMPA BAY. THIS WOULD LIKELY BE SUPPORTED BY LARGE-SCALE ASCENT
FORCED BY LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC WARM ADVECTION...BENEATH AN AREA OF
ENHANCED UPPER DIVERGENCE...WHICH MAY PROGRESS ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PENINSULA /POSSIBLY INCLUDING THE ORLANDO METROPOLITAN AREA AND
MELBOURNE VICINITY/ BY LATE AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH THE MORE RECENT
DETERMINISTIC MODEL RUNS DO NOT APPEAR AS STRONG WITH THE POTENTIAL
CONVECTIVE ENHANCEMENT OF LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELDS WITH THIS
ACTIVITY...DEEP LAYER SHEAR SHOULD STILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED
CONVECTION WITH A RISK FOR SEVERE WIND GUSTS...AND PERHAPS
TORNADOES. THE EXTENT OF THIS THREAT IS EXPECTED TO LARGELY HINGE
ON THE TIMING OF INLAND BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PENINSULA...WHICH REMAINS SOMEWHAT UNCLEAR AT THIS TIME.

SUBSEQUENT WAVES OF VIGOROUS THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY STILL APPEAR
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REST OF CENTRAL INTO SOUTHERN FLORIDA THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. HOWEVER...THE EXTENT OF ANY ASSOCIATED
SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL IS STILL NOT CLEAR ENOUGH TO SUPPORT MORE
THAN 5 PERCENT SEVERE PROBABILITIES...LARGELY DUE TO THE CONTINUING
MODEL DISCREPANCIES.

..KERR.. 01/26/2016

[AJC3]

With the forthcoming peninsular heavy rain event WED-THU (expecting widespread 2-3"), several stations across central and south Florida are likely to have their top 3 wettest Januarys on record. Melbourne (Currently 3rd with 5.92") has a decent shot at its all time wettest January. (8.17"). Vero Beach (currently 7th with 5.39") probably won't reach 1st (9.08") or 2nd (8.91"), but will probably beat the current 3rd place of 7.05". January rainfall across central Florida will in all likelihood wind up 200 to 400 percent of normal. Temperatures at most climate reporting stations are running about 1.0 to 1.5F below normal for the month.

Delayed, perhaps, but definitely not denied. #ElNino2016.

[AdamFirst]

Not only is the SPC maintaining their marginal risk for the central and southern peninsula (with possible upgrade to slight risk if specific parameters verify), the WPC is maintaining their slight risk for excessive rainfall from a line stretching from Tampa Bay-Melbourne to Naples-Fort Lauderdale.

[Sanibel]

We are already at a summer high level in the wetlands during dry season when those same areas should be good and dry.


Nice and warm today. 75* light overcast.

[Ntxw]

El Nino is still recording greater than 2C anomalies, and it's almost Feb! Sure shows it in Florida

[northjaxpro]

The next in a series of El-Nino shortwaves traversing along the southern jet will slide through the peninsula Wednesday through Thursday. We will watch for the potential of strong thunderstorms down state over the central and southern peninsula the next 24 hours. Rainfall amounts could reach 1-2 inches in some spots across the northern peninsula by Thursday evening. However, some areas across Central and South Florida could have the potential to see locally heavier rain amounts the next 24-36 hours.

Temps cool to slightly below average after the front clears the peninsula by late Thursday/early Friday. This next cool down will not be as potent as the last couple of ones which have affected the state. No freezes are anticipated across North Florida this time.

Long range global models show a nice moderation trend for most of next week. Mild temps will return as a deep southerly flow looks to commence across Florida and the SE US going for the first week of February. However, models are hinting at another shift in the pattern toward an amplification of an Eastern U.S. upper level trough after the Super Bowl weekend. It is possible we may see a return to the pattern we have seen for all of January by the second week of February.