Florida Weather

[NDG]

12z GFS is becoming much less enthusiastic with late next weeks cold front for Florida.

Yeap, not surprised at all because of the forecasted teleconnections by the ensembles that it was going start backing away from the forecasted freeze for central and parts of southern FL.

[AJC3]

With the forthcoming peninsular heavy rain event WED-THU (expecting widespread 2-3"), several stations across central and south Florida are likely to have their top 3 wettest Januarys on record. Melbourne (Currently 3rd with 5.92") has a decent shot at its all time wettest January. (8.17"). Vero Beach (currently 7th with 5.39") probably won't reach 1st (9.08") or 2nd (8.91"), but will probably beat the current 3rd place of 7.05". January rainfall across central Florida will in all likelihood wind up 200 to 400 percent of normal. Temperatures at most climate reporting stations are running about 1.0 to 1.5F below normal for the month.

Delayed, perhaps, but definitely not denied. #ElNino2016.

It turns out a couple stations did better than expected.

[TheStormExpert]

Luckily it's just the long range GFS up to it's usual self but it has a extremely significant cooldown for Florida at around 300hrs. or so on both of it's 06z and 12z(though slightly less significant) runs today. Fortunately the NAO & AO are forecasted to remain positive through at least the next 2 weeks, with a gradually trending negative PNA as well.

06z GFS 500mb Heights @ 288hrs.



06z GFS Surface Temps. @ 300hrs.



06z GFS Surface Temps. Anomaly @ 300hrs.



12z GFS 500mb Heights @ 288hrs.



12z GFS Surface Temps. @ 312hrs.



12z GFS Surface Temps. Anomaly @ 300hrs.

[gatorcane]

Yep GFS showing another mammoth trough in the long-range. But more interestingly, the GFS is starting to a show a low that develops in the Gulf which might bring some severe weather to Florida and then becomes a significant weather system for the mid-Atlantic and NE United States...and look at that snow trailing at the end into northern Florida.

[northjaxpro]

Models are beginning to latch onto a solution of a major winter storm system to the impact fhe Southern Plains and Lower Mississippi River Valley long range.

Too early to speculate how it will impact the Florida peninsula. I think from now into next week, the weather will be warm with the +NAO currently. Have to see if the NAO.can dip negative again during the second week of February.

[NDG]

My question is with the GFS being so erroneous on its 7-14 day range on how cold biased it has been in that range, is it even worth it to post such extreme solutions? Now, if the teleconnections would had been in the right phase then they would merit such solutions by the GFS. Not to say that the central and eastern US would not see yet another Arctic invasion in that range but with the positive NAO and active subtropical jet, a freeze for central FL and parts of interior S FL is going to be very low, IMO.

[northjaxpro]

Yeah, NDG I agree. We have to see a least a slight negative dip of the NAO to have a chance of the freeze line to come at least to the I-4 corridor.

Also, the STJ will continue to be active with this super strong Nino. Definitely see more storminess for the peninsula, especially central and southern peninsula, going into February.

[NDG]

Currently the Euro is not agreeing with the GFS with its 240h forecast solution on the location of the trough, keeps FL with higher ridging, which makes sense as mentioned because of the +NAO.

[Sanibel]

The increased sun angle will show up in about 3 weeks to combat the cold fronts. I think we will finally see things dry out when it warms.


That Nino weather border coming over from the Pacific is still over us and making a cooling overcast.

[MetroMike]

The increased sun angle will show up in about 3 weeks to combat the cold fronts. I think we will finally see things dry out when it warms.


That Nino weather border coming over from the Pacific is still over us and making a cooling overcast.

While I would like to believe that but remember about 5 years ago March was the coldest month of the Winter (Cold) season by far for most of Florida.

[NDG]

Chances of a cooler than average February & March are very high considering we will still have the effects of El Nino because of cloud cover and precipitation.

[northjaxpro]

For the month of January, the Fort Myers/Sanibel Island area has received just over 16 inches of rainfall for the month. That is absolutely amazing. Shows just how strong this El Nino has been this winter season. Here at my locale, I have picked up just under 6.5 inches for the month. This amount of rain is well above the normal for this time of year.

Also for this month of January, 6 days of freezing temps were measured at my locale, which included one Hard Freeze(duration of 4 or more hours at or below 28 degrees), with the coldest temperature reading of 26.7 degrees, which occurred last Sunday morning (January 24). The previous day, snow flurries fell at my locale with a max daytime high of 38 degrees.

[northjaxpro]

12Z GEM (Canadian) 500mb run 240 hours out. Shows a broad, positively tilted upper trough retrograding southwest from Northern Plains to the Rockies, and farther south to Texas. Coldest air over the Northern Plains. A big contrast to the GFS in its earlier runs today. GEM still shows 500mb heights over 570 dm over Florida and off the U.S. Eastern seaboard, which suggest ridging influencing these regions. Ridging over the New England region as well. If the GEM verifies, this corresponds well to the +NAO, which is forecast to continue at least into the second week of February. This would keep Florida and parts of the eastern U.S. seaboard mild to warm if GEM is right. I am inclined to side with the Canadian at the moment due to the forecast of the NAO remaining positive.

[Sanibel]

For the month of January, the Fort Myers/Sanibel Island area has received just over 16 inches of rainfall for the month. That is absolutely amazing. Shows just how strong this El Nino has been this winter season. Here at my locale, I have picked up just under 6.5 inches for the month. This amount of rain is well above the normal for this time of year.

We are at crazy flood levels here higher than rainy season with water over the berm from the pond and into the back yard. Normally it would be totally dry in that same place with a sandy receded water line in the pond. I think the Lows from those fronts are encountering Nino moist airmasses and squeezing the moisture out of them.

[gatorcane]

12Z ECMWF shows a significant trough digging into the deep south in the long-range:

[northjaxpro]

0Z GFS shows a bit of a fly in the ointment, as it develops another southern stream Low Pressure system moving through Florida and then intensifies it into quite a potent storm just off the North Carolina coast on Super Bowl Sunday. Looks as if there is not enough of a deep cold pool of air with this potential system, at least for now with this run. But, will watch this closely. It will be interesting to see if GFS continues to hold on to this solution the next couple of days. But, for Florida, more potential for strong storms and heavy rain on Super Bowl Sunday, if the GFS verifies. The El Nino parade of systems continues on if this comes to fruition.


0Z GFS 156 hr 12Z 2/7/15




0Z GFS 174 hr 0Z 2/8/15

[gatorcane]

Yikes

[gatorcane]

12Z GFS has gone colder with a freeze into Central Florida - yes it's still long-range so details need to be worked out but the ECMWF is showing a huge trough setting up to allow the big chill to intrude into Florida. 37F in Miami?!?

Also is that some frozen precip over the NE Gulf?

[northjaxpro]

Both the GFS and EURO have trended much colder since yesterday's runs. I will wait it out a few more days until late this week to see if EURO will stay cold biased with regards to next week's potential arctic spell across the Eastern CONUS.

[Sanibel]

Nice and toasty warm here today and sunny. Upper 70's.