Florida Weather

[HURRICANELONNY]

Seems like the Miami Discussion is wondering the same thing in the long range. 2/1

Beyond this forecast period, there is a signal of a much stronger
cold front sweeping across Florida during the early to middle part
of next week. Whether this will be a cold event or just a
glancing blow remains to be seen. /Gregor

Dr. Jeff Masters had a good blog on Feb:
http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMa ... y-in-store

[NDG]

12Z GFS has gone colder with a freeze into Central Florida - yes it's still long-range so details need to be worked out but the ECMWF is showing a huge trough setting up to allow the big chill to intrude into Florida. 37F in Miami?!?

Also is that some frozen precip over the NE Gulf?

http://i.imgur.com/cSiucZ5.png
http://i.imgur.com/hxzZpXQ.png
http://i.imgur.com/YMGC07N.png

Those forecasted low temps in the upper 20s/ low 30s for the Orlando area for next week it would be near record lows, with the NAO forecasted to be positive next week I really doubt the GFS is correct.
BTW, 12z Euro is not as cold as the 12z GFS.

[AdamFirst]

18z GFS once again shows wintry precipitation on the Panhandle in the 8-to-9-day range (210 hours). Later in the run (216 hours) also shows wintry precipitation along the Atlantic coast in Southeastern Georgia, very close to the Florida coast.

[northjaxpro]

Well, snow flurries were flying around my locale and all across Northeast Florida and Southeast Georgia on Jan 23, so is it possible again as the GFS is showing? Yes. We will see.

I am taking a wait and see approach to next week's potential cold blast. If the EURO keeps trending toward the GFS by late this week, then I would tend to believe the real cold may be coming.

Also, EURO, CMC have joined with the GFS with regards to the potential coastal storm which will develop Suunday over Florida and intensify off the coast of the Carolinas into Monday. We will have to monitor that system closely this weekend. There may be a potential for more heavy rainfall and potential strong storms across the Florida peninsula this weekend.

[gatorcane]

Yikes and yes that is the GFS...

[AdamFirst]

And the EURO

[TheStormExpert]

Pretty good agreement between the GFS and Euro in terms of the overall pattern with the upcoming potential East Coast troughs. Though they differ slightly in terms of depth, orientation, and location of trough at hours 168 and 192. Just can't remember the last time I've seen this good of an agreement in the medium/long range between the two main global models.

GFS 500mb Heights Hr. 120



Euro 500mb Heights Hr. 120



GFS 500mb Heights Hr. 168



Euro 500mb Heights Hr. 168



GFS 500mb Heights Hr. 192



Euro 500mb Heights Hr. 192



GFS 500mb Heights Hr. 216



Euro 500mb Heights Hr. 216



GFS 500mb Heights Hr. 240



Euro 500mb Heights Hr. 240

[gatorcane]

Could be a widespread freeze as far south as Central Florida or interior south Florida with this kind of setup. Haven't seen this in many years though it's still on the long-range so hopefully these two reliable models are overdoing things.

[TheStormExpert]

Could be a widespread freeze as far south as Central Florida or interior south Florida with this kind of setup. Haven't seen this in many years though it's still on the long-range so hopefully these two reliable models are overdoing things.

Personally I think with the +NAO/AO they're really overdoing it and should start gradually backing off in the next few runs, unless the NAO/AO tank negative abruptly.

[northjaxpro]

Pretty good agreement now with the EURO and GFS that we will see a very significant cold air outbreak across the
Deep South and Florida next week. It is
just the big question and issue as to how severe it will be. If the NAO can briefly dip even slightly negative next week, a freeze down into Central Florida may be a real possibility next week.

[gatorcane]

Latest GFS is out and there is remarkable consistency with the 12Z and previous runs with a freeze down into Central Florida this time next week. Stay tuned, could be the real deal.

[TheStormExpert]

For S. FL overall low temperatures do not look too much cooler or warmer than that of the morning of Sunday January 24th when it bottomed out at 39.9°F at my house in PBG, FL.

Also, this potential cold event is still just over 200hrs. out and things will change and I have a funny feeling with the current state of the teleconnections it will be warmer if not much warmer.

[psyclone]

These modeled freezes (which are frequently overcooked) are no big deal. 31 down to Lakeland? so what? that's inconsequential in the scheme of things. meanwhile the clock is running for a real event... tick tock...

[TheStormExpert]

Interestingly enough with the models going nuts with a huge arctic cool down in the east, the latest CPC Temperature Outlooks released this afternoon shows the core of best potential for below average temperatures over Florida in both it's 6-10 and 8-14 day outlooks. Consequently with that it also shows below normal precipitation for all of Florida in it's 6-10 day outlook and it's 8-14 day outlook below normal precipitation for only north and central Florida and average precipitation expected in S. FL.

CPC 6-10 Day Temperature Outlook Feb. 8-12



CPC 8-14 Day Temperature Outlook Feb. 10-16



CPC 6-10 Day Precipitation Outlook Feb. 8-12



CPC 8-14 Day Precipitation Outlook Feb. 10-16



NAEFS 12z Temperature Outlook Feb. 10-17

[psyclone]

those CPC maps are alarming...I will be paying close attention for sure...

[TheStormExpert]

:uarrow: those CPC maps are alarming...I will be paying close attention for sure...

Of course that is the probability of below normal temperatures, not how cold it will get. But nonetheless they are certainly alarming.

[NDG]

Lol, according to the 18z GFS next week's freezing temps forecast for central FL is nothing compared to its long range forecast of the mother of all freezes for FL for the middle of February. Highs only near 40 for central FL with lows in the mid 20s, freezing temps all the way down to S FL.

[TheStormExpert]

Lol, according to the 18z GFS next week's freezing temps forecast for central FL is nothing compared to its long range forecast of the mother of all freezes for FL for the middle of February. Highs only near 40 for central FL with lows in the mid 20s, freezing temps all the way down to S FL.

You're referring to this crazy GFS idea aren't you?





Just look at how crazy low those Dew Points are! Negative Dew Points all the way almost to the Southern tip of Florida!

[psyclone]

:uarrow: those CPC maps are alarming...I will be paying close attention for sure...

Of course that is the probability of below normal temperatures, not how cold it will get. But nonetheless they are certainly alarming.

I'm familiar with this product and use it all the time...the accuracy is very high when the deviations are significant. I recall 90 percentile warm probs for the eastern US in advance of the mid/late December heatwave...the cold probs...while not as extreme as the maxed out warm numbers in December...are as favorable for cold as we've seen all winter and our averages are only a few degrees above the mid winter mins....it's something to keep an eye on. recall last year our coldest temps of the winter were in late Feb..

[NDG]

That's when you know that GFS is on crack when it shows dewpoints below 0 F all the way down to south FL lol