Florida Weather

[northjaxpro]

For the 18Z run, indeed StormExpert the GFS trended warmer. Is it a start of a warmer solution, which the EURO flipped again back to since this morning? Possibly. It is also possible GFS could flip back as well. Oh these models. If the warmer trend continues, areas along and south of I-4 would avoid and escape the freeze potential.

North Florida would have lows mainly in the upper 20s to near 30 if this trend continues in the typical colder locales, which is better than the lower-mid 20s, which were projected by yesterday's runs.

We will continue to watch as we get closer to the event in a few days.

[TheStormExpert]

Hmmm...

@ErickBlake12 #Florida could get one of the coldest weeks in the past 5 years coming up- well below average! Love it! #winter

[northjaxpro]

Again we will find out during this weekend for sure just how cold it will get across the peninsula for next week. It is still very possible the GFS could flip back to its colder solution. The model flip flopping is reminding me of tracking tropical cyclones lol... That's the weather for you, the challenges will always be present of course.

[NDG]

Hmmm...

@ErickBlake12 #Florida could get one of the coldest weeks in the past 5 years coming up- well below average! Love it! #winter

That's a bit of exaggerating when saying in "5 years"
At best maybe the coldest since almost exactly a year ago, if that.

[NDG]

Again we will find out during this weekend for sure just how cold it will get across the peninsula for next week. It is still very possible the GFS could flip back to its colder solution. The model flip flopping is reminding me of tracking tropical cyclones lol... That's the weather for you, the challenges will always be present of course.

The Current NAO index and its forecast is not on the side of colder solutions, is what makes me belief that it will be hard for the GFS to turn back to a colder solution as we get closer in time

[northjaxpro]

Again we will find out during this weekend for sure just how cold it will get across the peninsula for next week. It is still very possible the GFS could flip back to its colder solution. The model flip flopping is reminding me of tracking tropical cyclones lol... That's the weather for you, the challenges will always be present of course.

The Current NAO index and its forecast is not on the side of colder solutions, is what makes me belief that it will be hard for the GFS to turn back to a colder solution as we get closer in time

This may be true given the forecasts, but we all have seen stranger happenings before NDG.

[NDG]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
302 AM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

.DISCUSSION...

MON-THU...COOLER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WORK
WEEK AS SERIES OF COLD/REINFORCING FRONTS ALLOW FOR A PREDOMINANT
W/NW FLOW OVER THE REGION. COLD FRONT THAT MOVES THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT MAY GENERATE ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS BUT OTHERWISE MUCH OF THE
WEEK LOOKS TO REMAIN DRY AS WELL. HIGHS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE MID
60S MON...THEN 50S TO LOW 60S TUE/WED AND BACK TO LOW-MID 60S THU.
LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 40S...EXCEPT FOR AREAS OF MID-UPPER 30S
TUE/WED NIGHTS.

[NDG]

The latest MOS guidance for highs and lows, these I am sure will change a couple of degrees + or - over the next few days.

Jacksonville Int'l:

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KJAX   GFSX MOS GUIDANCE   2/05/2016  0000 UTC                       
 FHR  24| 36  48| 60  72| 84  96|108 120|132 144|156 168|180 192     
 FRI  05| SAT 06| SUN 07| MON 08| TUE 09| WED 10| THU 11| FRI 12 CLIMO
 X/N  53| 34  52| 35  58| 34  67| 35  57| 28  58| 38  64| 40  70 43 66

Tallahassee

Code: Select all

KTLH   GFSX MOS GUIDANCE   2/05/2016  0000 UTC                       
 FHR  24| 36  48| 60  72| 84  96|108 120|132 144|156 168|180 192     
 FRI  05| SAT 06| SUN 07| MON 08| TUE 09| WED 10| THU 11| FRI 12 CLIMO
 X/N  56| 30  59| 31  61| 34  64| 31  54| 28  60| 41  65| 40  73 41 66

Orlando:

Code: Select all

KMCO   GFSX MOS GUIDANCE   2/05/2016  0000 UTC                       
 FHR  24| 36  48| 60  72| 84  96|108 120|132 144|156 168|180 192     
 FRI  05| SAT 06| SUN 07| MON 08| TUE 09| WED 10| THU 11| FRI 12 CLIMO
 X/N  61| 48  68| 46  61| 39  68| 45  60| 36  59| 43  70| 47  74 50 74

Tampa:

Code: Select all

KTPA   GFSX MOS GUIDANCE   2/05/2016  0000 UTC                       
 FHR  24| 36  48| 60  72| 84  96|108 120|132 144|156 168|180 192     
 FRI  05| SAT 06| SUN 07| MON 08| TUE 09| WED 10| THU 11| FRI 12 CLIMO
 X/N  62| 45  61| 42  61| 46  65| 52  58| 43  58| 50  68| 52  71 53 72

[Sanibel]

Chill shock again. 64* in dry air and bright sun. Just think how you'll be missing these refreshing cold periods in a few months.


Those lows are average winter cold nights for us. We should get past them and start the slow warm-up soon.

[gatorcane]

The ECMWF running now is a little colder for the I-4 corridor and points north:

[gatorcane]

GFS is not done with the onslaught of cold air into Florida. Look out in the very long-range, here we go again

[psyclone]

it looks like unless we get a freeze by mid month the time for a freeze from the I-4 corridor and south may be finished as the 8-14 day outlook shows normal temps returning. freeze frequency really tapers down rapidly after mid month with Tampa's latest freeze on record occurring March 5. my gut tells me we sneak by yet again this year but we'll see soon enough..

[NDG]

The CPC has been right all along about calling much below temps for the FL Peninsula starting tomorrow through Thursday night with at least couple of nights during the week of lows in the 30s across central FL and widespread 40s for S FL as forecasted by the Euro. But the good news is that the cold biased GFS is turning out to be wrong as time gets closer of its forecast of a widespread freeze for central FL and parts of S FL that it was forecasting a few days ago.

Below are the latest MOS guidance for lows and highs starting tomorrow through Friday, looking at the Euro during the past few runs the MOS guidance should drop a few more degrees, especially for S FL where the Euro is forecasting widespread 40s Monday morning and then again Thursday and Friday mornings as the surface high settles over the State.

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               Sun      Mon       Tues    Wed      Thurs   Frid
Fort Myers:     52  64| 42  66| 55  64| 46  64| 48  74| 50  77
Jax Int'l:      40  54| 34  66| 35  53| 29  60| 33  59| 37  68
Miami:          56  67| 45  67| 55  72| 52  69| 52  73| 60  76
Orlando:        47  59| 39  68| 46  59| 38  59| 41  69| 47  74
Tallahassee:   32  61| 34  63| 33  54| 31  61| 35  62| 39  71
Tampa:         44  59| 46  66| 53  59| 43  59| 47  68| 50  71
W Palm:        52  66| 41  67| 49  68| 48  65| 47  72| 55  75

[psyclone]

We now need low temps of around 20 degrees below normal to get a freeze in central florida and that bar is getting higher each day. I don't see it happening. instead we're likely to experience a much below normal week characterized by a persistent chill rather than a big, harsh freeze.

[TheStormExpert]

The 12z Euro is once again slightly colder for the peninsula of FL for both Tuesday & Wednesday mornings.

Tuesday Morning





Wednesday Morning





Also the 12z Euro shows the extreme Northeast Arctic Outbreak forecasted for Valentine's Day Weekend to propagate more southward in it's latest run, something to keep an eye on IMO even with a +NAO we will still have a -AO and +PNA.

Sunday Morning(Feb. 14th)





Monday Morning(Feb. 15th)

[NDG]

Notice that the core of the coldest air stays to the north of FL, thanks to the +NAO.

[northjaxpro]

Central and South Florida saved by the +NAO once again. Florida's luck continues. Have to have that NAO tank for Florida to get real serious cold. It is amazing how fortunate we keep getting with escaping Old Man Winter's harsh cold and major hurricane strikes from Mother Nature. Enjoy this folks because at some point our luck is going to run out at some point.

[NDG]

As I thought, the MOS guidance for Thursday and Friday mornings have dropped the lows, there could be some widespread frost for central FL and parts of interior S FL as the surface high settles over the Peninsula and skies clear.

Code: Select all

               Sun      Mon       Tues    Wed      Thurs   Frid
Fort Myers:         63| 44  65| 55  66| 47  65| 45  69| 38  64
Jax Int'l:          52| 33  65| 37  53| 27  57| 30  49| 24  54
Miami:              66| 46  66| 54  70| 50  68| 52  71| 48  69
Orlando:            61| 38  66| 46  61| 39  61| 40  54| 36  64
Tallahassee:       61| 33  64| 33  53| 29  60| 30  50| 25  56
Tampa:             60| 45  65| 51  59| 45  59| 44  54| 36  58
W Palm:            65| 40  67| 49  67| 45  63| 47  64| 45  66

The 0z Euro continues to show that by the end of the week into next weekend a huge Arctic surface high to come down from the Arctic down central Canada into the Great Lakes and eastern US, but luckily for us it shows the center of the high to stay to the north of FL and the core of the Arctic air to stay to the north and east of the Peninsula, we have to keep an eye on it. So far the GFS shows the core of the Arctic air for next weekend to stay even further north by the NE US.

[Sanibel]

A front has bellied down on us. It was in the low 50's last night. Bright sun today after a rainy day yesterday (more rain). 59* and cold.


Winter has finally settled on us and it should be a cool week.

[northjaxpro]

Yeah, GFS in earlier runs had a 1050 mb+ Arctic High coming down into Montana for this upcoming week. That is a huge chuck of arctic air coming down, but it does appear for now that the core of that arctic air will stay north of us. We will see freezing temps across North Florida most likely with that upcoming air mass in 10 days, but the rest of the peninsula looks to get spared. BUT, as you astutely cautioned NDG, we still have to monitor that situation closely the next following week in the event if that Arctic High sinks a bit father south than expected.

Meanwhile, for this week, our northwesterly upper level flow will keep peninsula Florida dry, but rather cool the entire week. There will be reinforcing shots of the cold air with the deep upper level trough well entrenched over the Eastern CONUS. We will see a string of days this week in my area seeing near freezing temps early this week, but later this week, looks like possible Hard Freezes with temps projected to be in the mid-upper 20s mid-late week over the colder, interior areas. The Polar High is forecast to get close to being over the region at that time, likely giving way to good radiational cooling conditions later in the week. Frost looks possible even down across Central Florida later this week when the Polar High gets closer in toward the region.

So, a prolonged period of cool, dry conditions are in store this week across the peninsula. This is good in one huge way. This is needed to help keep the mosquitoes from breeding, at least for now, especially given all the rainfall received this winter season thanks to the strong El Nino. The total rain received here at my locale from the storm system currently developing off the SE U.S. coast, measured 1.56 inches ending this morning. The total rainfall this week, including Thursday's system, measured just under 5 inches. I have measured just under 12 inches just since the beginning of January. It has been so wet thanks to sir Nino. LOL... We will get a break from the rain thankfully for this week, thanks to the polar jet and upper level Eastern U.S. upper trough cutting off the moisture from the GOM.