Caribbean - Central America Weather

[Macrocane]

Heavy rains were registered yesterday in El Salvador but not as extreme as Tuesday the highest yesterday was 130 mm/5.12 inches in El Pacayal volcano, by the way it's still raining and we have not seen the sun since Monday, this map shows the rainfall (in mm) in the 24 hours period ending at 7 am today:

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
247 PM AST THU OCT 13 2011

.SYNOPSIS...MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA FROM THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN THEN INTO THE WEST
ATLANTIC. THERE IS ALSO A TUTT LOW LOCATED JUST SOUTHWEST OF
HISPANIOLA. THIS PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER THE AREA FOR
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MUCH DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE
AREA FROM THE NORTHEAST FOR THE WEEKEND WITH PATCHES OF MOISTURE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MOISTURE FROM THE TRAILING TROPICAL WAVE IS STILL
OVER THE AREA...WHICH IS COMBINING WITH THE LOCAL EFFECTS TO
CREATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS DIFFERENT SECTIONS OF
MAINLAND PUERTO RICO WITH A FEW PASSING SHOWERS OVER THE U.S.
VIRGIN ISLANDS. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET
AND ONCE AGAIN HAVE SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ON FRIDAY WITH THE
LINGERING MOISTURE AVAILABLE. FOR THE WEEKEND...WINDS WILL SLOWLY
SHIFT TO THE EAST THEN NORTHEAST...GIVING US A MUCH DRIER AND
STABLE AIR MASS WITH A FEW PATCHES OF MOISTURE WHICH COULD HELP
DEVELOP SOME SHOWERS...BUT OTHERWISE MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED.


&&

.AVIATION...EXPECT PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS AND AT ALL TAF SITES DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER...
BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS AND LOCAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ARE EXPECTED
IN SCATTERED TO LOCALLY NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS...INCLUDING AT LEAST IN THE VICINITY OF TJBQ...TJMZ...
TJSJ AND POSSIBLY TJPS...THROUGH ABOUT 13/22Z.


&&

.MARINE...EXPECT SUBSIDING SEAS OF 6 FEET OR LESS TONIGHT...HOWEVER
INCREASING EASTERLY TRADE WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED ON FRIDAY INTO
THE WEEKEND AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTH OF THE AREA.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 77 88 77 87 / 20 10 10 10
STT 77 88 78 88 / 20 20 20 20

[cycloneye]

TAFB at 18z surface analysis,adds a low pressure just east of Belize.

[BZSTORM]

sorry not been on for a while computer & internet issues (not time of year for these to happen), well we've had allot of rain and thunderstorms since last night, assuming remnants of the tops Depression which made landfall in mexico couple days ago. Took a peak at the thread in talking topics about thew "blob" off the coast of Belize and good job I dont take NAM seriously because the pics posted for those runs looks nasty. October has rep for bad storms in western Carib, sadly my wedding anniversary coincides with a few of them in the last 15 yrs. Seas still very hot here and now we have a strange situation happenign with Queen Conch with them dying off near south waters caye which wasnt badly affected by the alage bloom in the south a couple months ago. Strange times my friends. Meanwhile trust all my other carib friends are having some better weather, you island guys and gals have had a rough time this season.

[cycloneye]

8 PM TWO:

SURFACE PRESSURES ARE FALLING IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA...AND THERE HAS BEEN A SHARP INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.
THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE LITTLE...AND DEVELOPMENT...IF
ANY...WILL BE SLOW TO OCCUR. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE OVER A LARGE PORTION OF CENTRAL
AMERICA...CUBA AND ADJACENT ISLANDS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS
RESULTING IN LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. THIS
SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THIS WEATHER PATTERN IS A COMMON
OCCURRENCE IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA DURING OCTOBER.

FORECASTER AVILA/BERG

[cycloneye]

Good morning. Good weather is expected this weekend in PR and adjacent islands.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
532 AM AST FRI OCT 14 2011

.SYNOPSIS...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD INTO THE
NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND MAINTAINING A
MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADE WIND FLOW ACROSS THE REGIONAL
WATERS. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MAINTAIN STABLE ATMOSPHERIC
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. PATCHES OF
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE EASTERLIES WILL AFFECT THE REGION FROM
TIME TO TIME NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A SIGNIFICANT DRYING TREND IS IN STORE FOR PUERTO
RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. LATEST SATELITE IMAGES AS WELL
AS DOPPLER RADAR...SHOWED A DECREASE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE
REGION. A DRIER AIR MASS IS STARTING TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
FROM THE EAST...WHICH WILL PROMISE TO BRING BETTER CHANCES FOR
SUNSHINE ACROSS THE REGION FROM TODAY THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY.
LATEST GFS COMPUTER MODEL INDICATED THETA-E VALUES WILL DROP FROM
335K TO NEAR 323K BY THIS AFTERNOON...AND PW VALUES ARE EXPECTED
TO DECREASE SIGNIFICANTLY FROM NEAR 2.00 INCHES EARLY THIS
MORNING...TO AROUND 1.4 INCHES THIS AFTERNOON. A HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM AT ALL LEVEL OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE THE MAIN WEATHER
FEATURE AFFECTING THE REGION IN THE SHORT TERM...WHICH WILL ALLOW
FOR A DECREASE IN THE PROBABILITY OF RAINFALL ACROSS THE REGION. THE
ONLY POSSIBILITY OF RAINFALL WILL BE AROUND MONDAY...WHEN PATCHES
OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE REGION FROM TIME
TO TIME...BUT OVERALL...A DRY AND STABLE WEATHER PATTERN IS
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD. AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES MID NEXT
WEEK...BUT NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO OUR WEATHER LOCALLY ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM. NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EVENTS ARE
FORECAST TO AFFECT THE LOCAL REGION IN THE LONG TERM RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION...EXPECT VFR CONDS TO PREVAIL THRU AT LEAST 15/02Z...EXCEPT
AT AND VCNTY OF TJMZ AND TJBQ BTW 14/17Z-14/22Z DUE TO PSBL
SHRA/ISOLD TSRA AND MVFR CIGS. MTN TOP OBSCR PSBL VCNTY OF PICO DEL
ESTE PR...DUE TO PASSING LOW CLDS AND SHRA TIL 14/13Z. PREVAILING SE
LOW LVL WNDS WILL BCM MORE EASTERLY LATER TODAY AT 10 TO 20 KTS BLO
26K FT. FEW TO ISOLD PASSING SHRA FCST TIL AT LEAST 14/13Z EN ROUTE
BTW PR AND LESSER ANTILLES. NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT FLYING HAZARDS AT
THIS TIME.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 88 76 86 76 / 10 10 10 30

[cycloneye]

This mornings discussion by Rob of Crown Weather:

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.


Watching The Western Caribbean Closely For Signs Of Tropical Development
Rob Lightbown on October 14, 2011, 5:34 am

I am closely watching an area of disturbed weather in the western and northwestern Caribbean. There is an area of low pressure associated with this disturbed weather and satellite imagery this morning showed some deeper areas of convection about halfway between the Yucatan Peninsula and the Cayman Islands.

The NAM model continues to significantly develop this system into a tropical storm over this weekend and forecasts it to be in the extreme northwestern Caribbean by Monday morning as a 45 mph tropical storm. Models like the European model hints at the possibility of this system becoming more of a sub-tropical system over the weekend. The European model then forecasts this system to shear apart and be entrained into a strong trough of low pressure over the eastern United States around the middle part of next week. It seems that the European and most of the other global model guidance forecasts that this system is not able to focus the energy to spin up a tropical storm, while the NAM model does forecast this scenario.

Environmental conditions are somewhat favorable for development with an area of 10 to 15 knots of wind shear found over the extreme western Caribbean near Belize. The Madden Julian Oscillation is currently in a favorable phase right now and the ocean waters are more than warm enough to support tropical development. Since, environmental conditions are forecast to remain somewhat favorable for development, I think there is a fairly good chance that we will see tropical development in the western and northwestern Caribbean this weekend into early next week. It likely will not be as strong as the NAM model forecasts, however, I think a solution that is a little stronger than the European model seems more likely.

This system, even if it does not develop, will bring very heavy rainfall to Central America, central and western Cuba, Belize, the Yucatan Peninsula and the Cayman Islands from today through this weekend. This heavy rainfall will bring the likelihood of flash floods and mudslides to all of these areas.

[Macrocane]

Still raining in El Salvador, it began on Monday night and only stopped yesterday afternoon and began again last night. I guess Guatemala is suffering the same situation as well, here's a recent IR:

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
251 PM AST FRI OCT 14 2011

.SYNOPSIS...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE WEEKEND...MAINTAINING A MODERATE TO LOCALLY
FRESH TRADE WIND FLOW ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS. UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE WILL MAINTAIN STABLE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
REGION FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN
THE EASTERLIES WILL AFFECT THE REGION FROM TIME TO TIME LATE IN
THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.


&&

.DISCUSSION...MUCH DRIER AIR HAS ENTERED THE AREA AND WITH IT A
MUCH MORE STABLE CONDITIONS. PW VALUES HAVE DROPPED TO 1.4 INCHES
AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT PW VALUES WILL REMAIN AROUND
1.4 OR LESS THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...THEREAFTER...A PATCH OF
MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA AND INCREASE THE PW
VALUES UP TO AROUND 1.9 ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

OTHER THAN THAT PATCH OF MOISTURE ON SUNDAY...THE DRIER AIR MASS
PATTERN IS FORECAST BY THE GFS UNTIL TUESDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES MID NEXT
WEEK...BUT NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO OUR WEATHER LOCALLY ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM. NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EVENTS ARE
FORECAST TO AFFECT THE LOCAL REGION IN THE LONG TERM.


&&

.AVIATION...EXPECT PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS AND AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER...
BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS AND LOCAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ARE EXPECTED
IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR
TWO...MAINLY OVER THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN INTERIOR...WEST...
NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO THROUGH ABOUT
14/22Z.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 76 87 76 86 / 10 10 30 30
STT 78 88 77 87 / 20 20 30 30

[Gustywind]

Cyclonic season: this is far from finished!

B.C. France-Antilles Guadeloupe13.10.2011

(D.R.)
http://www.microsofttranslator.com/bv.a ... 142190.php



Officially, the hurricane season ends in 48 days. The West Indians could soon see: according to the latest forecasts of the University of Colorado, cyclonic activity, between October and November, in the Caribbean basin, should be greater than 200% normal...

Teams working with Dr. Philip j. Klotzbach and William M. Gray, in the Department of atmospheric sciences at the University of Colorado, don't have to hide. September 30, after having refined projections whose reliability is not to demonstrate, they announced an end of season the most active in the Caribbean Basin: "the months of October and November could know a higher activity of more than 200% a normal situation."

Reasons, leaving fear such a scenario, do not get very far: they would first of all to a particularly hot water in the Atlantic as well as in the sea of the Caribbean, where surface temperatures would exceed the 28.5 ° C. Beyond this phenomenon known as "fuel" for depression, would add even the return of la Niña, which is still considered - El Niño - "as a rather favourable to the cyclonic activity factor" and finally the presence of weak trade winds. "This latest trend observed during these past two months, is expected to continue until the end of the cyclone season", confirms weather-France. Not without making explicit his view: "It is now established that weak trade winds favor the formations of cyclones on our region."

Phenomena but not necessarily of hurricanes

Faced with the presence of these three elements, Professor Gray is is decided, for the first time, to establish a specific bulletin for the months of October and November, noting the great novelty: "This is not because the appearance of cyclones in the traditional areas of training (Incidentally, often off the coast of Cape Verde) ends in October, that the cyclonic activity will not continue in the Caribbean in November."

With weather-France, if these forecasts appear to broadly shared, meteorologists relativise all same. On the one hand because "forecasts shall only issue a general trend."

And on the other hand because nothing says, despite a fairly worrying situation in terms of activity, that hurricanes will form did and on the West Indies: "is to believe that from here to the end of November, the number of 21 cyclonic phenomena have emerged in 2010 could be equalled or even surpassed." Nevertheless, in terms of intensity, less cyclones have reached the stage of Hurricane the previous year. »

-17 cyclones this year including 6 alone in September

Will 2011 swing records in terms of cyclonic activity? Too early to say even if weather-France believes that this season could be comparable and even slightly higher than that of 2010, where 21 phenomena had been identified. For the time being, the Caribbean faced 17 cyclones passage. Only one remained at the stage of mere depression and 12 became tropical storms. On the four hurricanes observed, three were considered major. For the month of September alone, 3 storms tropical (Lee, Nate and Philippe) and 3 hurricanes named Katia, Maria and Ophélia were observed on the Atlantic basins, Caribbean and Gulf of the Mexico.

[cycloneye]

That is a very important piece of information that the people who live in the Caribbean have to read.Thank you Gusty for posting it.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT FRI OCT 14 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...CENTERED NEAR THE GULF OF HONDURAS...
IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND ADJACENT LAND MASSES.
THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS...AND SOME DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE BEFORE THE CENTER
OF THE BROAD CIRCULATION MOVES INLAND OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA BY
LATE SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE OVER CENTRAL AMERICA...THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA...CUBA...AND ADJACENT ISLANDS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...RESULTING IN LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BERG

[cycloneye]

Good morning. Some showers will move thru PR on Sunday.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
518 AM AST SAT OCT 15 2011

.SYNOPSIS...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE WEEKEND...MAINTAINING A
MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADE WIND FLOW ACROSS THE REGIONAL
WATERS. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MAINTAIN STABLE ATMOSPHERIC
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. PATCHES OF
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE EASTERLIES WILL AFFECT THE REGION FROM
TIME TO TIME LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS INDICATED IN YESTERDAY`S DISCUSSION...PATCHES OF
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE THE MAIN RAIN MAKER ACROSS THE LOCAL
AREA DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. FAST MOVING SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO
AFFECT THE REGION TODAY...BUT OVERALL DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.
A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM AT ALL LEVEL OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE THE
MAIN WEATHER FEATURE AFFECTING THE REGION IN THE SHORT
TERM...WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPRESS THE PROBABILITY OF RAINFALL
ACROSS THE REGION. IN FACT...LATEST 15/00Z TJSJ SOUNDING SHOWED PW
VALUES OF 1.3 INCHES...WHICH IS REMARKABLY LOW...COMPARED TO WHAT
WE HAD SEEN IN THE LAST MONTH. LATEST COMPUTER GUIDANCE INDICATED
THAT A SLIGHT INCREASE IN MOISTURE IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY...AS A
BIG AREA OF SHOWERS MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER...NO
SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE SHOWERS. IN THE LONG
TERM...COMPUTER MODELS INDICATED SURFACE PRESSURE WILL FALL ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN...WHICH COULD INDUCE A WETTER PATTERN
ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS TO PREVAIL THROUGH 16/09Z...WITH SLIGHT INCR N
PASSING SHRA AND CLOUDS AFT 15/10Z. THIS MAY LEAD TO BRIEF MTN TOP
OBSCR IN AREAS OF SHRA AND/OR ISOLD TSRA ERN PUERTO RICO. SCT
SHRA/TSRA ALSO FORMING AFT 15/17Z IN W AND SW PR WITH SOME MVFR
CONDS EXPECTED VCNTY TJMZ AND...TJPS W/HIGHER TERRAIN OBSCURED THRU
15/23Z. LLVL WINDS NOW E-NE 5 TO 15 KT BELOW 10 KFT AND NE 15 TO 30
KT BTWN 10-20 KFT THRU 16/00Z.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 87 76 86 76 / 10 30 30 0
STT 87 77 87 78 / 20 30 30 10

[Gustywind]

:uarrow: That is a very important piece of information that the people who live in the Caribbean have to read.Thank you Gusty for posting it.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT FRI OCT 14 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...CENTERED NEAR THE GULF OF HONDURAS...
IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND ADJACENT LAND MASSES.
THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS...AND SOME DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE BEFORE THE CENTER
OF THE BROAD CIRCULATION MOVES INLAND OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA BY
LATE SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE OVER CENTRAL AMERICA...THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA...CUBA...AND ADJACENT ISLANDS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...RESULTING IN LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BERG

Hi Cycloneye . Glad to see that, if i can be informative like you and bring it nicely to the islanders...

[Gustywind]

Sat pic. Looks like fair weather should continue on most of the islands of the Lesser Antilles

[Gustywind]

Loop of the tropical activity...

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT SAT OCT 15 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED JUST EAST OF BELIZE IS
PRODUCING DISORGANIZED CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS A LARGE
PORTION OF THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND ADJACENT LAND AREAS.
ALTHOUGH SURFACE PRESSURES ARE NOT SIGNIFICANTLY FALLING...SOME
DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE BEFORE THE CENTER MOVES OVER THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA BY LATE SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...
20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS
OF CENTRAL AMERICA...THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...CUBA...JAMAICA...AND
THE CAYMAN ISLANDS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...RESULTING IN
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 675 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS IS SHOWING SOME SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION. SOME GRADUAL
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO
BEFORE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS BECOME LESS FAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
FORMATION. THIS DISTURBANCE HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES
WESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

[cycloneye]

The area in the NW Caribbean has been tagged as invest 95L.Here are the first model plots.

Code: Select all

WHXX01 KWBC 151514
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1514 UTC SAT OCT 15 2011
 
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
 
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
 
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL952011) 20111015 1200 UTC
 
        ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS. ..   ...36 HRS...
        111015  1200   111016  0000   111016  1200   111017  0000
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    17.4N  86.4W   18.5N  87.2W   18.9N  88.5W   19.1N  89.9W
BAMD    17.4N  86.4W   18.8N  87.2W   19.9N  88.3W   20.7N  89.9W
BAMM    17.4N  86.4W   18.7N  87.1W   19.4N  88.2W   19.9N  89.7W
LBAR    17.4N  86.4W   18.8N  87.2W   20.9N  88.0W   23.2N  88.5W
SHIP        25KTS          31KTS          38KTS          45KTS
DSHP        25KTS          31KTS          29KTS          27KTS
 
        ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS. ..   ..120 HRS...
        111017  1200   111018  1200   111019  1200   111020  1200
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    19.1N  91.1W   19.7N  92.3W   18.1N  93.1W   14.9N  95.5W
BAMD    21.0N  91.4W   21.4N  93.2W   21.5N  93.4W   20.4N  90.8W
BAMM    20.0N  91.1W   20.4N  93.1W   19.7N  94.8W   17.7N  97.4W
LBAR    25.3N  88.2W   30.3N  82.7W   38.5N  67.3W   41.7N  59.2W
SHIP        53KTS          63KTS          60KTS          49KTS
DSHP        33KTS          43KTS          40KTS          28KTS
 
         ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR =  17.4N LONCUR =  86.4W DIRCUR =   0DEG SPDCUR =   2KT
LATM12 =  17.0N LONM12 =  86.4W DIRM12 = 360DEG SPDM12 =   2KT
LATM24 =  16.6N LONM24 =  86.5W
WNDCUR =   25KT RMAXWD =   75NM WNDM12 =   25KT
CENPRS = 1006MB OUTPRS = 1008MB OUTRAD =  225NM SDEPTH =   S
RD34NE =    0NM RD34SE =    0NM RD34SW =    0NM RD34NW =   0NM


[Macrocane]

Guess what, it's still raining in El Salvador and other parts of Central America, we have not seen the Sun since Monday and floods and mudslides are still occurring.

-In Guatemala 22 people have died and more than 94000 people have been affected.
-In El Salvador the president declared yesterday the state of emergency in the country, 8 people have died and 8000 have been displaced.
-In Honduras 4 deaths are reported and more than 500 people have been affected.

[Macrocane]

The highest rainfall registered yesterday was in Puerto Parada with 201.6 mm/7.94 inches, this map shows the rainfall in the last 24 hours:

[cycloneye]

Guess what, it's still raining in El Salvador and other parts of Central America, we have not seen the Sun since Monday and floods and mudslides are still occurring.

-In Guatemala 22 people have died and more than 94000 people have been affected.
-In El Salvador the president declared yesterday the state of emergency in the country, 8 people have died and 8000 have been displaced.
-In Honduras 4 deaths are reported and more than 500 people have been affected.

Wow,what a tragedy for those countries. 2011 has been very bad for most of Central America,but hopefully the weather turns for the better over there.