Texas Fall 2018

[Jarodm12]

Could be a severe weather outbreak around the 31st I'm eyeing the front following that around the 2nd - 5th could be an interesting time coming up, and everyone stay safe God bless

[Ntxw]

Willa is making landfall now and remnants will overspread the state with ULL. Airmass across the northern half of the state is actually seasonally cool so PWATS are not extreme or very high like prior events. Also the energy will be moving quicker with no merging with a stationary front. However 1-3" widespread is likely locally more is possible. Many sites inland are nearing record October totals if not already passed.

[Brent]

I am still watching the post Halloween weekend with intrigue.

What is so intriguing about it ralph? In all seriousness

There have been some wintry hints but its still pretty far out many scenarios possible not convinced of anything

[Ralph's Weather]

I am still watching the post Halloween weekend with intrigue.

What is so intriguing about it ralph? In all seriousness

There have been some wintry hints but its still pretty far out many scenarios possible not convinced of anything

Yep, my focus is usually on trying to pick up on wintery surprises at long range which is usually a losing proposition but still is fun. This year has been full of extremes so why not have one of the earliest snowfalls on record. The warm GoA with a mild El Nino is a great combo for early season action. I'm sure many N and NE Texans recall 11/17/14 though that had help from a recurving early Nov typhoon (Nuri?).

[Ntxw]

What is so intriguing about it ralph? In all seriousness

There have been some wintry hints but its still pretty far out many scenarios possible not convinced of anything

Yep, my focus is usually on trying to pick up on wintery surprises at long range which is usually a losing proposition but still is fun. This year has been full of extremes so why not have one of the earliest snowfalls on record. The warm GoA with a mild El Nino is a great combo for early season action. I'm sure many N and NE Texans recall 11/17/14 though that had help from a recurving early Nov typhoon (Nuri?).

Maybe a re-curving Super Typhoon Yutu could buckle the jet stream too. Wait and see though with that.

[Brent]

DFW needs 1.79" for wettest October...

the 3km NAM says its gonna be close tomorrow. I also find it ironic that it has the heaviest rain in the state centered again around DFW

The Euro holds off more rain until we flip to November, barely

[Ntxw]

No snow on Euro or GFS but you see a 5h trof. This gloomy, coolish pattern is not going anywhere. We'll see breaks in between but not lasting. Roll it forward and we are likely talking snow/ice threats November and December.

DFW is running -2.2F below normal. Today will be a big high departure. We have not seen a real cool October since October 2009, almost a decade.

[funster]

It looks like the low is tracking a little more to the north than what the GFS had a couple days ago. More like the NAM. Getting the record looks possible. Two inches seems like nothing compared to what we have seen the past few weeks but it still requires some moderate to heavy rain to fall for a while.

[CaptinCrunch]

No snow on Euro or GFS but you see a 5h trof. This gloomy, coolish pattern is not going anywhere. We'll see breaks in between but not lasting. Roll it forward and we are likely talking snow/ice threats November and December.

DFW is running -2.2F below normal. Today will be a big high departure. We have not seen a real cool October since October 2009, almost a decade.

I see that NWS FTW has a forecast high of 79 for Sunday ahead of the next front, with upper 60's to start next week. I could use some mid 70's just to dry out the backyard so I can freaking mow.

[Cpv17]

The CMC & Euro both have a pretty good cold front in 9-10 days from now, but the GFS isn’t seeing it.

[Brent]

The CMC & Euro both have a pretty good cold front in 9-10 days from now, but the GFS isn’t seeing it.

that post-Halloween weekend timeframe still looking curious

[weatherdude1108]

Found a USGS publication of catastrophic storms and floods in Texas, going back to 1869. Been some memorable ones.

https://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2003/ofr03-193 ... patton.htm

[weatherdude1108]

Looking forward to a little dry-out time (never thought I'd say that given the Summer we just had). Wet Halloween?

000
FXUS64 KEWX 241956
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
256 PM CDT Wed Oct 24 2018

.SHORT TERM (Tonight through Thursday Night)...
Continued showers across south central Texas as a trough of low
pressure, interacting with residual moisture from a dissipated
tropical system from the Pacific, moves across the area. Rain rates
have remained relatively low with average rates of 0.10 inch per
hour. The highest rates still remain to the north of our forecast
area, but remain below 0.50 inch per hour. This will remain event, as
thunder is a very low possibility, where chances are primarily along
the coast and east where instability is higher. The rain will
continue this afternoon with sharp clearing from west to east. Radar
is already reflecting this with Val Verde county clear of precip.
Rain will move out of the area this evening around 7-8 PM, with
possible residual light showers to linger. The Flash Flood Watch is
still in effect until 7PM. An update to the watch was sent out to
reflect lower rainfall amounts expected for the rest of the day.

Thursday we will finally get to see the sun again as we kick off a
dry forecast for the next several days. Some patchy fog in the Hill
Country is possible Thursday morning. Highs will be in the upper 60s
to low 70s.


&&

.LONG TERM (Friday through Wednesday)...
Another trough with a weak cold front will pass through on Friday
afternoon, but with insufficient moisture the front will stay dry
with slightly cooler temperatures behind it. The weekend begins to
warm up into the low 80`s coupled with fair weather. Another trough
arrives late in the period just as return flow develops Tuesday. This
could lead to a wet Halloween, but with models not completely
agreeing on timing and placement this far out, will keep chances on
the low side.

[bubba hotep]

18z 3k NAM shows over 2" at DFW. That plus whatever fell before 18z should break the record.

[Brent]

18z 3k NAM shows over 2" at DFW. That plus whatever fell before 18z should break the record.

only need about an inch more now

[bubba hotep]

18z 3k NAM shows over 2" at DFW. That plus whatever fell before 18z should break the record.

only need about an inch more now

As of about an hour ago DFW was past 1" and it's still pouring here in downtown.

[Haris]

Since El Nino will continue to get stronger into next year, (per what I've heard), makes me wonder if we will have another very wet spring

[Ntxw]

18z 3k NAM shows over 2" at DFW. That plus whatever fell before 18z should break the record.

only need about an inch more now

As of about an hour ago DFW was past 1" and it's still pouring here in downtown.

As of 6:57pm the Airport was reporting 13.87" for the month so far.

[Cpv17]

Since El Nino will continue to get stronger into next year, (per what I've heard), makes me wonder if we will have another very wet spring

I sure hope so! I’m ready for a big bad thunderstorm with thunder that shakes my house and torrential downpours. I haven’t had one of those storms in a while. A lot of light to moderate stuff lately.

[Ntxw]

13.9" just past 7pm with one more little round to go. That might get it to 14" and come up a little short. One more shot on Halloween day, last minute field goal for the record.