Texas Fall 2019

[rwfromkansas]

I'm just hoping this doesn't end up being the season of the early hard freeze, followed by zonal dry flow with highs in the 70s for two months, then another March freeze.

Tell me about it. I have had a lot of winters that started promising only to die.

I'm a little worried it may be starting too early. The pattern will change, so it could flip Dec-Feb to hot for us and cold east coast. Who knows. I think it's appropriate to be cautiously optimistic though. The more snowcover and such we can build early maybe it will help lock in a pattern longer.

[Brent]

so is the winter weather threat for DFW zero or nonzero for the next few days?

Sorry to say it's pretty much near zero. While you could see your first freeze by the end of this week, the precipitation will be over well before then.

Totally agree have never seen a wintry shot for the metro

[AubreyStorm]

Yessssss! So, I will not work!

[gpsnowman]

Yessssss! So, I will not work!

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EIEzjHNX4AIkiWF.jpg

The wind chill numbers are just incredible to see this early. Wowzers!!!!

[Cpv17]

After this cold shot, it looks like the next one could slide east of us resulting in a glancing blow

[Ralph's Weather]

Yessssss! So, I will not work!

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EIEzjHNX4AIkiWF.jpg

This is what I have been telling everyone.

[Ralph's Weather]

I'm just hoping this doesn't end up being the season of the early hard freeze, followed by zonal dry flow with highs in the 70s for two months, then another March freeze.

Tell me about it. I have had a lot of winters that started promising only to die.

I'm a little worried it may be starting too early. The pattern will change, so it could flip Dec-Feb to hot for us and cold east coast. Who knows. I think it's appropriate to be cautiously optimistic though. The more snowcover and such we can build early maybe it will help lock in a pattern longer.

I like that the pattern has the ridge further west off of the West Coast and a STJ fetch underneath the ridge. Great setup as we get deeper into winter and troughs dig more SW. I think we will be wet with variable but generally cool temps through Christmas. Still unsure of the deep winter.

[Brent]

I'm just hoping this doesn't end up being the season of the early hard freeze, followed by zonal dry flow with highs in the 70s for two months, then another March freeze.

Tell me about it. I have had a lot of winters that started promising only to die.

I'm a little worried it may be starting too early. The pattern will change, so it could flip Dec-Feb to hot for us and cold east coast. Who knows. I think it's appropriate to be cautiously optimistic though. The more snowcover and such we can build early maybe it will help lock in a pattern longer.

Yeah I'm worried the pattern is too early also... and last year with all the hyped predictions is still haunting me too

but I would love for this winter to finally be different, we are so overdue for a good one. It's been a horrible stretch

[Ntxw]

High today at DFW was 49F that occurred after midnight. The true daytime high was 47F. That's a good 10F or so degrees colder than what models had for today last week. The air mass again has been setting record lows to the north. Colder air will filter in tomorrow.

As far as the seasonal outlook, we'll have a general idea once past this cold snap. If the bounce back is way above normal then you know there is still significant background heat around but I don't see that in the forecast. The tropical Pacific has changed, and the warm, humid (the reason for the extreme rains the past few years) air masses is no longer there. The record heavy rains were nice, but to get that kind of rainfall requires warm air masses deep into the cold season. As mentioned before this cold Halloween outlook has been seen well far out in advance. We are seeing fairly big high pressures early in the season over North America, likely because of the North Pacific Oscillation.

[Cerlin]

so is the winter weather threat for DFW zero or nonzero for the next few days?

Sorry to say it's pretty much near zero. While you could see your first freeze by the end of this week, the precipitation will be over well before then.

Totally agree have never seen a wintry shot for the metro

I hadn’t seen one either but I just had to make sure

[Haris]

51F the high at my place in West, Austin.

[hamburgerman7070]

High today at DFW was 49F that occurred after midnight. The true daytime high was 47F. That's a good 10F or so degrees colder than what models had for today last week. The air mass again has been setting record lows to the north. Colder air will filter in tomorrow.

As far as the seasonal outlook, we'll have a general idea once past this cold snap. If the bounce back is way above normal then you know there is still significant background heat around but I don't see that in the forecast. The tropical Pacific has changed, and the warm, humid (the reason for the extreme rains the past few years) air masses is no longer there. The record heavy rains were nice, but to get that kind of rainfall requires warm air masses deep into the cold season. As mentioned before this cold Halloween outlook has been seen well far out in advance. We are seeing fairly big high pressures early in the season over North America, likely because of the North Pacific Oscillation.

Ntxw, is there anyway to tell the likelihood the NPO this winter or is it a two week advance thing only? Also, do you like the 13-14 analog for winter or is there another one?

[Ntxw]

High today at DFW was 49F that occurred after midnight. The true daytime high was 47F. That's a good 10F or so degrees colder than what models had for today last week. The air mass again has been setting record lows to the north. Colder air will filter in tomorrow.

As far as the seasonal outlook, we'll have a general idea once past this cold snap. If the bounce back is way above normal then you know there is still significant background heat around but I don't see that in the forecast. The tropical Pacific has changed, and the warm, humid (the reason for the extreme rains the past few years) air masses is no longer there. The record heavy rains were nice, but to get that kind of rainfall requires warm air masses deep into the cold season. As mentioned before this cold Halloween outlook has been seen well far out in advance. We are seeing fairly big high pressures early in the season over North America, likely because of the North Pacific Oscillation.

Ntxw, is there anyway to tell the likelihood the NPO this winter or is it a two week advance thing only? Also, do you like the 13-14 analog for winter or is there another one?

2013-2014 is not a good analog because it was high solar year, cold neutral, and the PDO was shifting from - to +. However 2019-2020 is likely a shift year much where the PDO is going from + to - transition. Shift years can produce some wild winters.

[Brent]

after a gentle rain all day a really noisy thunderstorm right now at 44 degrees

[weatherdude1108]

Local weather mentioned it will be the coldest Halloween in almost THREE DECADES.

Then highs in the 70s next week.lol

[Portastorm]

Local weather mentioned it will be the coldest Halloween in almost THREE DECADES.

Then highs in the 70s next week.lol

It looks to be the coldest Halloween we (Austin) have had since 1993. And, assuming the temp forecast verifies, it will go down as one of the top five coldest Halloweens on record.

[weatherdude1108]

Local weather mentioned it will be the coldest Halloween in almost THREE DECADES.

Then highs in the 70s next week.lol

It looks to be the coldest Halloween we (Austin) have had since 1993. And, assuming the temp forecast verifies, it will go down as one of the top five coldest Halloweens on record.

All I know is it will be nice not sweating while trick or treating.

[Cpv17]

Local weather mentioned it will be the coldest Halloween in almost THREE DECADES.

Then highs in the 70s next week.lol

It looks to be the coldest Halloween we (Austin) have had since 1993. And, assuming the temp forecast verifies, it will go down as one of the top five coldest Halloweens on record.

They’re saying it’ll be the coldest since 1925 here in southeast TX.

[CaptinCrunch]

Local weather mentioned it will be the coldest Halloween in almost THREE DECADES.

Then highs in the 70s next week.lol

It looks to be the coldest Halloween we (Austin) have had since 1993. And, assuming the temp forecast verifies, it will go down as one of the top five coldest Halloweens on record.

For DFW the coldest Halloween on average was 1993 - 51F/29F
Lowest Maximum temp 41F 1991
Lowest Minimum temp 29F 1993

DFW Halloween forecast is H-51 L-27, if that happens it will be the coldest Halloween on record. As for the first week of November it's looking to be right about average maybe a degree or 2 below average.

[Haris]

43F the high as of noon