Caribbean - Central America Weather

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT SAT OCT 15 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED JUST EAST OF BELIZE CONTINUES
TO PRODUCE A LARGE AREA OF DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND ADJACENT LAND
AREAS. ALTHOUGH SURFACE PRESSURES OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA HAVE CHANGED LITTLE DURING THE PAST DAY OR SO...SOME
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS LOW IS POSSIBLE BEFORE THE CENTER MOVES OVER
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA ON SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...THIS DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...CUBA...JAMAICA...
AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. IN
ADDITION...STRONG GUSTY WINDS ARE LIKELY OVER THE SOUTHERN
GULF OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
LOCATED ABOUT 800 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
HAVE DECREASED SINCE THIS MORNING. DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...OF THIS
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR. THIS DISTURBANCE HAS A LOW
CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/BROWN

[cycloneye]

Important for all to read the blue paragraph that talks about the last days of October.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
255 PM AST SAT OCT 15 2011

.SYNOPSIS...A MODERATE TRADE WIND FLOW WILL PREVAIL THRU MUCH OF
NEXT WEEK. RIDGING WILL DOMINATE AT MID AND UPPER LEVELS THEN
WEAKEN MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. BROAD LOW PRES SFC AND ALOFT XPCD TO
ESTABLISH ACROSS THE REGION TOWARD THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A S/W TROUGH EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
EXTENDING FROM 50W TO 60W ALONG 20N WILL PUSH SWD TONIGHT THRU
MON AND BRING A SIG INCREASE IN PW...K INDICES AND H85 THETAE
VALUES TONIGHT THRU SUN. XPC SHALLOW CONVECTION TO BREAK OUT
ACROSS THE LOCAL ATLC WATERS AFTER SUNSET TONIGHT AND AFFECT ERN
PR/USVI OVERNIGHT THROUGH SUN. XPC SCT CONVECTION TO PERSIST MON-
TUE UNDER A COOL NORTHEAST FLOW.

BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK...RIDGE PATTERN WILL BE REPLACED BY BROAD
LOW PRES AT ALL LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WITH AN INVERTED TROF
PATTERN SETTING UP ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES. THIS TO RESULT IN
AN INCREASE IN MORE WIDESPREAD CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION FOR THE
LAST TEN DAYS OF OCTOBER.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS TO PREVAIL THROUGH 16/06Z...WITH SLIGHT INCR N
PASSING SHRA AND CLOUDS AFT 16/10Z. THIS MAY LEAD TO MTN TOP
OBSCURATIONS IN AREAS OF SHRA ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND USVI. WINDS AT
THE SFC ARE EXPECTED TO BE FROM THE EAST TO EAST NORTHEAST AT AROUND
10 KNOTS.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS GENERALLY 4-5 FT MOST OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 76 87 76 86 / 50 50 50 50
STT 79 87 79 87 / 60 60 40 40

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT SAT OCT 15 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A BROAD LOW PRESSURE AREA CENTERED OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF
MEXICO IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND
ADJACENT LAND AREAS. DUE TO THE CENTER BEING OVER LAND...ANY
DEVELOPMENT OF THE LOW SHOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR. THIS SYSTEM HAS A
LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...THIS DISTURBANCE IS
EXPECTED TO PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS OVER THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA...GUATEMALA...HONDURAS...BELIZE...CUBA...JAMAICA...AND
THE CAYMAN ISLANDS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. IN ADDITION...
STRONG GUSTY WINDS ARE LIKELY OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
LOCATED ABOUT 900 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
REMAIN POORLY ORGANIZED. DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...OF THIS SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR...AND IT HAS A LOW CHANCE...
10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS
AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[Macrocane]

Still raining in El Salvador, this map shows the rainfall (in mm) in the last 5 days (not including today's rainfall since 7 am), the highest rainfall has been registered in Juayua with 622 mm/24.49 inches.

[cycloneye]

Good morning.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
418 AM AST SUN OCT 16 2011

.SYNOPSIS...A MODERATE TRADE WIND FLOW IS EXPECTED UNTIL LATE NEXT
WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE IN THE UPPER LEVELS WILL BE THE DOMINANT
FACTOR FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.


&&

.DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS SOME MOISTURE MOVING INTO
OUR AREA FROM THE NORTHEAST...AFTER WHICH A MUCH DRIER AND STABLE
AIR MASS IS PRESENT. IT IS FORECAST FOR SHOWERS TO MOVE INTO OUR
AREA AS WELL AS DEVELOP ACROSS PUERTO RICO WITH THIS MOIST AIR MASS
TODAY AND POSSIBLY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW
PW VALUES GOING UP AS MUCH AS 2.0 INCHES AT 16/18Z THEN SLOWLY
DECREASING TO 1.4 BY 17/18Z. SOME CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE TODAY DUE
TO THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE. HOWEVER...ANY MOISTURE REMAINING FOR
THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL MOST LIKELY BE SHALLOW ENOUGH THAT
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT MAY BE LIMITED.


&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES WITH PASSING
SHOWERS IN AND AROUND TJSJ/TIST/TISX AND TNCM/TKPK THROUGH ABOUT
16/12Z. SCT SHRA/TSRA ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AFT 16/17Z MAINLY IN
W AND SW PR WITH TEMPO MVFR CONDS PSBL AT TJMZ AND TJPS THRU 16/23Z.
WINDS SFC-15K FT FROM THE EAST TO EAST NORTHEAST AT 10-15 KNOTS BCMG
NE AND INCR WITH HGT ABV TO WND MAX NR 50 KTS AROUND 35K FT.


&&

.MARINE...WINDS WILL BE MODERATE AND SMALL CRAFT OPERATORS SHOULD
EXERCISE CAUTION FOR WINDS UP TO 18 KNOTS AND SEAS UP TO 6
FEET...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE ATLANTIC OFFSHORE WATERS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 88 77 86 77 / 50 50 50 20
STT 87 79 87 79 / 60 40 40 20

[cycloneye]

SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
515 AM EDT SUN OCT 16 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...CENTERED ALONG THE COAST OF THE
EASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA ABOUT 60 MILES NORTH-NORTHEAST OF
CHETUMAL MEXICO...IS GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER DEFINED.
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED AND BECOME MORE CONCENTRATED
NEAR THE SURFACE CENTER DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...AND
SATELLITE AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE WINDS NEAR TROPICAL
STORM STRENGTH ARE OCCURRING NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER IN THE YUCATAN
CHANNEL. ALTHOUGH A PORTION OF THIS DISTURBANCE IS OVER LAND...SOME
GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THE LOW IS STILL POSSIBLE. THIS SYSTEM HAS A
MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD. REGARDLESS OF
DEVELOPMENT...THIS DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...GUATEMALA...HONDURAS...
BELIZE...CUBA...JAMAICA...AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. IN ADDITION...STRONG GUSTY WINDS TO TROPICAL STORM
FORCE WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE WATERS OF THE NORTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS.

THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 1100 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE
VERDE ISLANDS. HOWEVER...ANY DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE SHOULD
BE SLOW TO OCCUR DUE TO UPPER-LEVEL WINDS GRADUALLY BECOMING LESS
FAVORABLE. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING
A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT
ABOUT 15 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

[Gustywind]

Loop of the tropical activity...

[Gustywind]

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT SUN OCT 16 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SATELLITE DATA AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE LARGE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED ALONG THE EASTERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA IS SHOWING SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION. IN ADDITION...WINDS
NEAR TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH ARE OCCURRING TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE
CENTER OVER THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND THE EXTREME SOUTHERN GULF OF
MEXICO. ALTHOUGH THIS LOW IS INTERACTING WITH LAND...SOME GRADUAL
DEVELOPMENT IS STILL POSSIBLE. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS
AS IT MOVES SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA AND WESTERN CUBA DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 1500 MILES EAST OF THE LESSER
ANTILLES CONTINUES TO PRODUCE DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME LESS
FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS AS THE LOW MOVES WESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A
LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/PASCH

[Macrocane]

Hi, it's still raining hard in El Salvador and it seems that the death toll has risen, the government will have an official report later this morning. A new ingridient has been added to the mixture: the wind. Since last night strong wind gusts have been registered and there are fallen trees and damaged power lines, some of the wind gusts registered since midnight:

UCA, Antiguo Cuscatlán 61 km/h
El Pacayal 41 km/h
Ilopango 39 km/h
Acajutla 30 km/h

[Macrocane]

DEATH TOLL RISES IN CENTRAL AMERICA

-In Guatemala the death toll reached 28, the number of people affected is 147000, from them 9600 are directly affected.
-In Honduras there are 12 deaths and more than 13000 affected.
-In El Salvador the government has just said that 27 fatalities and 14000 people have been displaced to shelters.

Some links for Guatemala and Honduras info:

http://www.prensalibre.com/noticias/comunitario/Gobierno-decreta-Calamidad-pais_0_573542734.html

http://www.laprensa.hn/Secciones-Principales/Honduras/Apertura/Doce-muertos-y-cuantiosas-perdidas-por-lluvias-en-Honduras#panel1-6

http://copeco.gob.hn/n/node/953

I'm waiting for the latest update to post a link for El Salvador.

[Macrocane]

This is the map with the rainfall registered yesterday, the highest accumulation was registered in Huizucar 292.4 mm/11.51 inches, and there were several locations with rains above 8 inches:

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT SUN OCT 16 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE CENTER OF THE LARGE LOW
PRESSURE AREA NEAR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA IS NOT WELL DEFINED BUT
MAY BE REFORMING JUST TO THE EAST OF COZUMEL. THE LOW CONTINUES TO
PRODUCE WINDS TO NEAR TROPICAL STORM FORCE IN THE VICINITY OF THE
YUCATAN CHANNEL AND THE WESTERN STRAITS OF FLORIDA. ALTHOUGH THIS
SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO INTERACT WITH THE LAND MASS OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...SOME GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT IS
POSSIBLE AS THE LOW MOVES SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD. THIS SYSTEM HAS A
MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND
WESTERN CUBA DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 1500 MILES EAST OF THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS CONTINUES TO PRODUCE DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME LESS
FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS AS THE LOW MOVES WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A
LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH/CANGIALOSI

[Macrocane]

RECORD RAINFALL IN EL SALVADOR

This event has been insane, I think it's the wettest weather event ever in El Salvador, not even Mitch, Stan, or Agatha produced so much rainfall in the country and it's also one of the longest lived. Some of the accumulations of the last 6 days:

Huizucar 986.2 mm/38.83 inches (the Highest so far)
Chiltiupan 835 mm/32.87 inches
Juayua 772 mm/30.39 inches
Santiago de Maria 773 mm/30.43 inches
Acajutla 629 mm/24.76 inches
San Salvador 284 mm/11.18 inches

This map shows the total rainfall in the country in the last 6 days:

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
324 PM AST SUN OCT 16 2011

.SYNOPSIS...AN ELONGATED MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL GENERALLY
REMAIN THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE LOCALLY FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL RESULT IN A GENERALLY
FAIR WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. HOWEVER...AS HAS
BEEN THE CASE THE PAST FEW DAYS...AREAS OF MOISTURE WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA FROM TIME TO TIME AND WILL INTERACT WITH
LOCAL EFFECTS...TO PRODUCE SOME CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY
A COUPLE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS...
ESPECIALLY THE INTERIOR AND WEST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

&&

.AVIATION...EXPECT PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS AND AT ALL TAF SITES DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER...
BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS AND LOCAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ARE
EXPECTED IN SCATTERED TO LOCALLY NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY OVER THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN INTERIOR...
WEST...NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO...
INCLUDING TJMZ AND TJBQ...THROUGH ABOUT 16/23Z.

&&

.MARINE...EXPECT WINDS 17 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEAS OF 5 FEET OR
LESS THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 76 86 77 86 / 50 40 20 20
STT 76 87 77 87 / 40 40 20 20

[BZSTORM]

Good Evening everyone, saddened to read about all the deaths resulting from the TD system in central America. Belize fortunatly has less likelyhood of landslides. But I can report that from 12 - 15 oct we had extensive rain and thunderstorm primarily along coast, leaving all of coastal flooding (havent seen this mouch flood water in my area since Hurr Mitch), and on thursday night at 10pm lightening stuck oak tree next to my house and grounded throught he roots of the tree (pretty spectacular damage to roots) unfortunalty my phone and dsl cable run underground next to same tree, result was the line has been fried from road to house and the surge down line was enough to incinerate the phone line to the handset and blow of the sockets for phone & DSL in the house. We were very fortunate that the elec got knocked out at same time, else instead of minor fire we could have had a major one. Anyway it could be a week till my dsl is back in as we have to wait for flood water to go down before we can dig new trench and lay new line for phone and dsl. In meantime borrowing a friends internet connection when I can. So really hope nothing major weather wise comes my way over next week as I'm going to hard pushed to monitor it.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT SUN OCT 16 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND RADAR DATA FROM CANCUN MEXICO AND LA BAJADA
CUBA INDICATE THAT THE LARGE AND ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
LOCATED NEAR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA HAS CHANGE LITTLE IN
ORGANIZATION. THE SYSTEM IS PRODUCING WIDESPREAD DISORGANIZED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MOST OF THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA AND ADJACENT LAND AREAS. ADDITIONALLY...WINDS TO NEAR TROPICAL
STORM FORCE ARE OCCURRING IN THE VICINITY OF THE YUCATAN CHANNEL
AND THE WESTERN STRAITS OF FLORIDA. ALTHOUGH THIS SYSTEM IS LIKELY
TO INTERACT WITH THE LAND MASS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA DURING THE
NEXT DAY OR SO...SOME GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE AS THE LOW
MOVES SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND WESTERN CUBA DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 1500 MILES EAST OF THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS CONTINUES TO PRODUCE DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME LESS
FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS AS THE LOW MOVES WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A
LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS/BROWN

[cycloneye]

Good morning. A variable week ahead weatherwise with intervals of sun and rain.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
524 AM AST MON OCT 17 2011

.SYNOPSIS...AT MID AND UPPER LEVELS...A CUT-OFF LOW NORTHEAST OF
THE WINDWARD ISLANDS WILL RETREAT WHILE HIGH PRESSURE OVER CUBA
MOVES NORTHEAST. THIS WILL CAUSE A NEW CUT-OFF TO FORM IN NEARLY THE
SAME AREA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. BY SATURDAY MODELS SUGGEST THAT
NORTH WINDS WILL REACH 40 KNOTS AT 250 MB OVER THE LOCAL AREA
BEFORE THE LOW MOVES NORTH AND AWAY FROM THE AREA.

AT LOWER LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST CENTRAL
ATLANTIC WILL RIDGE SOUTHWEST OVER HISPANIOLA NOW THROUGH
THURSDAY. ON WEDNESDAY LOW PRESSURE WILL BEGIN FORMING IN THE
TROPICAL ATLANTIC AND DRIFT OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS ON SATURDAY.
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL BE FOUND IN CONTROL OF THE CARIBBEAN BY
NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SHOWERS HAVE CONTINUED IN EAST NORTHEAST FLOW ACROSS
THE ATLANTIC AND CARIBBEAN WATERS OVERNIGHT...THOUGH THEY WERE MORE
PREVALENT IN THE ATLANTIC. A FEW HAVE DRIFTED ONSHORE IN PUERTO
RICO...OVER VIEQUES AND IN SAINT CROIX...THOUGH ONLY SAN JUAN
SHOWED RAIN IN THE HOURLY OBSERVATIONS AVAILABLE. THE 17/00Z SOUNDING
SHOWED MUCH DRIER AIR ABOVE 14 THOUSAND FEET AND SOUNDERS SHOWED
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER DECREASING FROM 2 TO 1.6 INCHES
OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL REDUCE THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS DURING THE DAY
TODAY OVER SUNDAY...BUT SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL STILL OCCUR OVER
MUCH OF PUERTO RICO DURING THE DAYTIME HEATING TODAY AND TOMORROW.
AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW GAINS INFLUENCE OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY AND THE LOW PRESSURE TO THE SOUTHEAST AT THE
SURFACE BEGINS TO AFFECT THE AREA...BRINGING MORE NORTHEASTERLY
FLOW...SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE AGAIN...ESPECIALLY ON THE
NORTHEAST COAST OF PUERTO RICO. WITH WEAK MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND A
POSITION ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW FOR MOST OF THE
WEEK HOWEVER...SHOWERS WILL BE MODEST WITH ONLY A FEW AREAS OF URBAN AND
SMALL STREAM FLOODING DURING THE WEEK. THESE WILL BE MAINLY IN THE
WESTERN PORTION OF PUERTO RICO WHERE THE LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE
WILL BE THE BEST.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES WITH PASSING
SHOWERS IN AND AROUND TJSJ/TIST/TISX AND TNCM/TKPK THROUGH ABOUT
17/12Z. SCT SHRA/TSRA ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AFT 17/17Z MAINLY IN
WESTERN PR WITH MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS AND MVFR CONDS EXPECTED AT
TJMZ AND POSSIBLE AT TJPS/TJBQ THRU 17/23Z. WINDS AT THE SFC FROM
THE EAST TO EAST NORTHEAST AT AROUND 10 KNOTS.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS WILL INCREASE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THE TIGHTER GRADIENTS MENTIONED ABOVE...BUT GRADIENTS
WEAKEN WHEN THE LOW PRESSURE FROM THE SOUTHEAST MOVES OVER THE
AREA AND PASSES SATURDAY AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH AGAIN. AT THIS
TIME SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED IN THE AREA
THIS WEEK.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 86 76 86 77 / 30 20 20 10
STT 87 77 87 77 / 40 20 20 20

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT MON OCT 17 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A LARGE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM LOCATED OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO ABOUT 100
MILES NORTH OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA HAVE CHANGED LITTLE IN
ORGANIZATION DURING THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS. THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES
TO PRODUCE STRONG GUSTY WINDS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO.
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR
DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO BEFORE BECOMING UNFAVORABLE
AFTER THAT. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES
GENERALLY NORTHWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA...WESTERN CUBA...THE FLORIDA KEYS...AND SOUTH
FLORIDA DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE LOW THIS
AFTERNOON.

DISORGANIZED CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE IN ASSOCIATION
WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 1400 MILES EAST OF THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS. SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS UNLIKELY
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS DUE TO UNFAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL
WINDS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 10
TO 15 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH/CANGIALOSI

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
242 PM AST MON OCT 17 2011

.SYNOPSIS...MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN OVR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE ECNTRL ATLC IS TO DEEPEN AS IT
RETROGRESSES TOWARD THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEK AND INDUCE AN
INVERTED TROF PATTERN ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...LOW LEVEL EASTERLIES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MID WEEK
WITH MAINLY SCATTERED SHALLOW CONVECTION XPCD. OVR THE WEEKEND...UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE ECNTRL ATLC WILL AMPLIFY/DEEPEN WITH A
DEEP TUTT LOW FCST TO RETROGRESS TOWARD THE AREA. THIS TUTT WILL
INDUCE AN INVERTED SFC TROF WITH TROF AXIS FCST TO MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA SAT NIGHT. MODELS HOWEVER DO NOT SHOW ANY SIG INCREASE IN
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY AS AREA REMAINS UNDER UPPER CONVERGENT SIDE
OF TUTT. TUTT AXIS THEN LIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST AND AWAY FROM THE
REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK AS POLAR TROUGH PATTERN AMPLIFIES/DEEPEN
ACROSS ERN NOAM. WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE SW CARIBBEAN CLOSELY OVR
THE WEEKEND AS MODELS FCST A BROAD SFC LOW TO SIT THERE FOR SVRL
DAYS WITH UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT BECOMING HIGHLY FVRBL FOR TC
FORMATION. ALTHOUGH NONE OF THE RELIABLE GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE TROPICAL
CYCLOGENESIS OVR THIS AREA OVR THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS...CURRENT H2
VELOCITY POTENTIAL ANOMALIES AND MJO PHASE STRONGLY FAVOR TC
FORMATION ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN BASIN AND REGION CONTINUES TO BE
HIGHLIGHTED UNDER A HIGH POTENTIAL FOR TC FORMATION IN THE LATEST
GLOBAL TROPICS HAZARDS/BENEFITS OTLK FROM CPC UPDATED TODAY. ANY
DEVELOPMENT IN THIS AREA WOULD BE STEERED THIS WAY WITH DEEP TROF
ACROSS THE BAHAMAS AND RIDGE AXIS TO THE EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES.


&&

.AVIATION...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS NEXT FIVE DAYS. SCT SHALLOW
CONVECTION WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE EACH DAY AT JMZ/JBQ.


&&

.MARINE...SEAS GENERALLY 3-5 FT NEXT FIVE DAYS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 77 86 77 87 / 20 20 10 10
STT 78 88 78 87 / 20 20 20 20