Big changes with GFS just in the past 24-36 hours. This morning's 6Z GFS run has really backed off on the magnitude of the cold air and strength of the Low pressure area forecast to develop late Monday into Tuesday over the Deep South. GFS now does not sharpen or amplify that upper level trough over the Eastern CONUS as much as it had shown it doing earlier this week. GFS now depicting a much weaker 1008mb Low moving off the North Carolina coast by 6Z Wednesday morning. So, if this trend continues of showing not as potent as a Low pressure system as GFS was earlier in its runs this week, then the risk of severe weather over Florida and the Deep South will greatly be reduced as well. As a matter of fact, the Storm Prediction Center has already stated earlier today that as of right now, their overall confidence for Tuesday of seeing organized severe weather or tornado outbreaks across Florida and the Deep South as being low. They are for now also seeing the weakening trend as well . Also, 540 and 546 partial thicknesses only drop as far south as Northern Georgia by 12Z next Thursday morning. So, it appears the GFS has fallen in line with the EURO with regards to backing off on the cold next week. The positive NAO continues to reign supreme! Yet again, another winter season we have been saved by the +NAO. Amazing how lucky we continue to be here in Florida. I know you are loving that NDG
Now that the GFS and EURO are now in sync with the northern Florida peninsula not getting a significant late season cold snap next week, we are almost in the clear here of not seeing any more major cold intrusions. Here in Jax, once we get past mid-March, spring will be here for sure!
Generally, late February into early March is the average time when we get the last freeze each winter season. But, remember, we have seen rare exceptions to this in which we can have late season cold spells, with March 1993 being still very fresh on my mind when the great March '93 superstorm occured. That storm still ranks extremely high on my list as one of the greatest weather events I have covered and experienced.
Based on these latest trends with the models, we may end up not getting a freeze into Jax and most of Northern Florida next week after all. But, we still have to monitor this closely going into this weekend as we all know, abrupt changes in the models can still occur.
GFS 500 mb run 6Z Wednesday 2/24/16
EURO 500 mb 0Z Wednesday 2/24/16
I will say that the EURO really backed off its earlier solution a few days back showing the evolution of the Southeast U.S. ridge. Now, the EURO has done a complete 180 the past 36 hours in now developing another sharp upper level trough across the Eastern CONUS in the medium and long range.
