Caribbean - Central America Weather

[cycloneye]

Folks,look what is comming to us who live in the Eastern Caribbean by next week. Be on alert for that weather.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
252 PM AST THU OCT 20 2011

.SYNOPSIS...BROAD TUTT AND ASSOCIATED MID TO UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS
THE EASTERN ATLANTIC EXTENDING INTO THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC...WILL
CONTINUE TO DIG WEST SOUTHWEST INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN THROUGH
FRIDAY. THEREAFTER...IT WILL LIFT TO JUST NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA
BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON WHILE WEAKENING. IN THE MEANTIME...THE TUTT
AND THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC WILL
CREATE A FAIRLY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
CARIBBEAN. THIS WILL INDUCE MODERATE NORTHERLY WINDS AND PROVIDE
SUFFICIENT VENTILATION TO AID IN ENHANCING AFTERNOON CONVECTION
TODAY AND SATURDAY. THE TUTT IS FORECAST TO QUICKLY WEAKEN BY
SUNDAY AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER HIGH WILL BUILD
ACROSS THE REGION.IN THE LOW LEVELS...A BROAD TUTT INDUCED LOW TO
MID LEVEL TROUGH SITS TO THE EAST AND NORTHEAST OF THE ISLANDS.
THIS WILL HELP TO MAINTAIN A MODERATE NORTH EASTERLIES ACROSS THE
NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN THROUGH FRIDAY. WINDS ARE THEN TO BECOME
EAST SOUTHEAST BY SATURDAY AS TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN AND LOCAL AREA.

AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE NEAR
47 WEST AND EMBEDDED IN A SURFACE TROUGH...WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
WEST AND REACH THE LESSER ANTILLES BY SUNDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE PREVAILING MODERATE NORTHEAST WIND FLOW WILL
CONTINUE TO TRANSPORT SHALLOW PATCHES OF CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ACROSS
THE ISLANDS AND SURROUNDING WATERS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. AS A
RESULT BRIEF PASSING SHOWERS WILL AFFECT THE NORTH AND EAST COASTAL
SECTIONS OF THE ISLANDS DURING THE LATE EVENING AND EARLY MORNING
HOURS. DURING THE DAYTIME...AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL BE FAST MOVING
AND THEREFORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. ON
FRIDAY HOWEVER EXPECT AVAILABLE MOISTURE TO COMBINE WITH FAVORABLE
UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS AND ENHANCE AFTERNOON CONVECTION OVER PARTS
OF THE ISLANDS.

LOOKING DOWN THE ROAD...MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT LATE SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY THE BEST INFLOW OF TROPICAL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED WITH A
SIGNIFICANTLY WETTER PATTERN...AS THE SURFACE TROUGH APPROACHES THE
REGION. IN ADDITION...THIS WILL BE THEN FOLLOWED BY THE ABOVE
MENTIONED TROPICAL WAVE FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THESE TWO FEATURES WILL EVENTUALLY INDUCE A MOIST
LOW TO MID LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW BRINGING A GOOD INFLUX OF ITCZ
MOISTURE ACROSS THE ISLANDS AND SURROUNDING WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. FOR NOW...WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AND SEE
HOW THIS PATTERN GRADUALLY UNFOLDS...AND WILL REMAIN CONSERVATIVE ON
THE POPS AND WEATHER FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS EXPECTED AT MOST TAF SITES. SCT SHRA/ISOLD
TSRA WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP MAINLY OVER SW PR. AS A RESULT...
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS AND BRIEF MVFR CONDS ARE PSBL ACROSS TJMZ AND
TJPS THRU 20/23Z. AFT 21/02Z A BAND OF MOISTURE EMBEDDED IN THE
NERLY FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FROM 02-10Z. THIS
INCREASE IN MOISTURE WILL BRING SHWRS TO THE WINDWARD SIDE OF THE
ISLANDS AFFECTING MAINLY TIST/TISX AND TJSJ/TJBQ. LLVL WINDS WILL
CONTINUE FROM THE NE AT AROUND 15 KTS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 76 86 74 84 / 60 60 20 30
STT 77 86 75 85 / 40 40 20 20

[Macrocane]

Wow some of those totals are nearly 50" of rain!! That's unbelievable sorry to hear about all the loss of life and damage.

Thanks for those words PTrackerLA, as cycloneye mentioned a drier pattern is now in place, and nice northerly winds have been blowing today, the skies have become a little dark this afternoon but only isolated showers are expected. Anyway the government is still assessing the damage from the rain event that lasted for 10 days and ended yesterday, the death toll increased as 2 people were drowned yesterday, according to the update given by the government today the effects of the disaster are:

-34 fatalities
-Almost 56000 people are in shelters.
-10% (2000 km2) of the territory was flooded
-181 municipalities were affected by mudslides and floods, that's 70% of all the municipalities in the country.
-4 bridges were destroyed and 14 damaged.
-879 significant mudslides occurred, that's 38000 cubic meters of mud.

Here's the link (in Spanish): Informe de acciones y atención de la emergencia

The highest accumulation of rain from this event occurred in Huizucar with 1513 mm/59.57 inches in only 10 days, and as I've said before that's makes this event the wettest in El Salvador's history by far. Just to give you an idea the normal annual rainfall in El Salvador is 1800 mm, so in 10 days it rained almost as much as an entire year. This map shows the total rainfall from this event

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT THU OCT 20 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A BROAD LOW PRESSURE AREA IS LOCATED OVER THE WEST-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
SEA ABOUT 150 MILES EAST OF THE HONDURAS-NICARAGUA BORDER. ALTHOUGH
THIS LARGE DISTURBANCE IS SHOWING SOME SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION...ANY
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT SHOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR DUE TO MARGINALLY
FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS AND PROXIMITY TO DRY AIR. THIS SYSTEM
HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES LITTLE OR DRIFTS SLOWLY
SOUTHWARD.

AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER LOCATED ABOUT 975 MILES EAST OF THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS HAS NOT BECOME ANY BETTER ORGANIZED DURING THE
PAST SEVERAL HOURS...AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE GRADUALLY BECOMING
UNFAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS
AS IT DRIFTS SLOWLY NORTHWARD.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

[Macrocane]

I've been very busy with college projects so I have not been able to post the temperatures in Central America in the last few days, I've only had time to post the updates of the floods and mudslides and the maps of the rainfall, but now that the event is over I can use that time to post the temperatures again, I will start tomorrow. For today I will post a summary of the temperatures in the last 10 days:

-The highs have been cooler than normal in the entire region (actually well colder than normal in some places), only Belize experienced near normal highs during this period.
-The lows were warmer than normal in Panama, Belize, Nicaragua, Honduras and El Salvador; it was until yesterday that they experienced near normal lows. In Guatemala and Costa Rica the lows have been mostly at near normal levels for this time of year but in the last couple of days they have been cooler than normal.

Average minimum temps from Oct 10 to Oct 19 2011

Belize city, Belize 24.8°C (76.6°F)
Mountain Pine Ridge, Belize 20.8°C (69.4°F)
Guatemala city, Guatemala 16.1°C (61.0°F)
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala 10.5°C (50.9°F)
Zacapa, Guatemala 23.4°C (74.1°F)
San Salvador, El Salvador 20.2°C (68.4°F)
Las Pilas, El Salvador 13.5°C (56.3°F)
San Miguel, El Salvador 22.5°C (72.5°F)
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 18.7°C (65.7°F)
La Esperanza, Honduras 15.7°C (60.3°F)
Choluteca, Honduras 23.2°C (73.8°F)
Managua, Nicaragua 23.8°C (74.8°F)
Jinotega, Nicaragua 19.2°C (66.6°F)
San Jose, Costa Rica 17.0°C (62.6°F)
Liberia, Costa Rica 22.3°C (72.1°F)
Irazu volcano, Costa Rica 6.0°C (42.8°F)
Panama city, Panama 23.9°C (75.0°F)
Boquete, Panama 13.5°C (56.3°F)

Average maximum temps from Oct 10 to Oct 19 2011

Belize city, Belize 30.1°C (86.2°F)
Mountain Pine Ridge, Belize 26.1°C (79.0°F)
Guatemala city, Guatemala 21.3°C (70.3°F)
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala 17.4°C (63.3°F)
Zacapa, Guatemala 29.8°C (85.6°F)
San Salvador, El Salvador 23.6°C (74.5°F)
Las Pilas, El Salvador 18.1°C (64.6°F)
San Miguel, El Salvador 26.8°C (80.2°F)
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 24.9°C (76.8°F)
La Esperanza, Honduras 19.3°C (66.7°F)
Choluteca, Honduras 26.6°C (79.9°F)
Managua, Nicaragua 28.5°C (83.3°F)
Jinotega, Nicaragua 22.3°C (72.1°F)
San Jose, Costa Rica 22.1°C (71.8°F)
Liberia, Costa Rica 26.7°C (80.1°F)
Irazu volcano, Costa Rica 15.6°C (60.1°F)
Panama city, Panama 28.0°C (82.4°F)
Boquete, Panama 18.4°C (65.1°F)

[Macrocane]

NOTABLE TEMPERATURES FROM OCT 10 TO OCT 19 2011

Minimum Temperatures

Some warmer than normal lows were registered during the period but yesterday the first cold surge of the season reached Central America so some of the coldest lows in several months were registered.

Mountain Pine Ridge, Belize 18.5°C (65.3°F) Registered on October 19 Coldest since May 7
Guatemala city, Guatemala 12.4°C (54.3°F) Registered on October 19 Coldest since March 27
Zacapa, Guatemala 21°C (69.8°F) Registered on October 19 Coldest since June 2
San Salvador, El Salvador 18.7°C (65.7°F) Registered on October 19 Coldest since September 11
San Jose, Costa Rica 16.0°C (60.8°F) Registered on October 17 Coldest since August 27
Boquete, Panama 11.9°C (53.4°F) Registered on October 17 Coldest since July 13

Maximum Temperatures

As I’ve mentioned above the highs were colder than normal during the period thanks to those persistent and heavy rains and several locations experienced their coldest maximum for 2011 or at least the coldest high in several months.

Mountain Pine Ridge, Belize 23.1°C (73.6°F) Registered on October 14 it is the coldest high since September 13
Guatemala city, Guatemala 18.0°C (64°F) Registered on October 12 it is the coldest high for 2011
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala 13.9°C (57.0°F) Registered on October 12 it is the coldest high for 2011
Zacapa, Guatemala 26°C (79°F) Registered on October 19 it is the coldest high for 2011
San Salvador, El Salvador 21.7°C (71.1°F) Registered on October 19 it is the coldest high for 2011
Las Pilas, El Salvador 15.6°C (60.1°F) Registered on October 19 it is the coldest high since March 21
San Miguel, El Salvador 24.1°C (75.4°F) Registered on October 19 it is the coldest high for 2011
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 22°C (72°F) Registered on October 19 it is the coldest high since February 13
La Esperanza, Honduras 18°C (64°F) Registered on October 19 it is the coldest high since March 20
Choluteca, Honduras 24°C (75°F) Registered on October 19 it is the coldest high for 2011
Managua, Nicaragua 25°C (77°F) Registered on October 11 it is the coldest high for 2011
Jinotega, Nicaragua 20°C (68°F) Registered on October 15 it is the coldest high for 2011 tied January 4
San Jose, Costa Rica 19.9°C (67.8°F) Registered on October 17 it is the coldest high for 2011
Liberia, Costa Rica 23°C (73°F) Registered on October 16 it is the coldest high for 2011
Panama city, Panama 25.1°C (77.2°F) Registered on October 17 it is the coldest high for 2011
Boquete, Panama 15.9°C (60.6°F) Registered on October 18 it is the coldest high for 2011

[cycloneye]

Good morning.

The forecast continues to be for bad weather for early next week in the Eastern Caribbean.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
535 AM AST FRI OCT 21 2011

.SYNOPSIS...BROAD TUTT AND ASSOCIATED MID TO UPPER LEVEL LOW
WILL CONTINUE TO DIG WEST SOUTHWEST INTO THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN
TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...BEFORE LIFTING TO JUST NORTH OF THE LOCAL
AREA BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...WHILE
SLOWLY FILLING. IN THE LOW LEVELS...A BROAD TUTT INDUCED TROUGH
WILL MOVE SLOWLY WEST ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA TONIGHT THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR TODAY AND SATURDAY...EXPECT SIMILAR CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE FA...WITH TODAY FEATURING SOMEWHAT BETTER MOISTURE AND
LESS FAVORABLE DYNAMICS AND SATURDAY LESS MOISTURE BUT BETTER
DYNAMICS FROM THE LOCATION OF THE TUTT. THIS SHOULD ADD UP TO
BOTH DAYS FEATURING SOME CLOUDINESS AND SUNSHINE WITH ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE
LOCAL ISLANDS. FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AND ESPECIALLY
MONDAY...MUCH DEEPER MOISTURE WILL ADVECT WEST TOWARD AND THEN
INTO THE LOCAL AREA...BEHIND AFOREMENTIONED PASSING SURFACE
TROUGH. THIS MOISTURE SHOULD EVENTUALLY RESULT IN AN OVERALL
INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE FA.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS
AND AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER...BRIEF
MVFR CONDITIONS AND LOCAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ARE EXPECTED IN
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...EXPECT WINDS OF 16 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEAS OF 5 FEET OR
LESS ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 85 74 85 76 / 60 20 20 10
STT 86 75 85 77 / 40 20 20 20

[cycloneye]

This mornings discussion of possible tropical developments in SW Caribbean and Central Caribbean by Rob of Crown Weather.

http://www.crownweather.com/?page_id=4557

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT FRI OCT 21 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A NEARLY STATIONARY AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA BETWEEN NICARAGUA AND JAMAICA IS PRODUCING A LARGE
AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SURFACE PRESSURES ARE FALLING
AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT... OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

A LARGE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER LOCATED A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES
SOUTHEAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS REMAINS DISORGANIZED. ALTHOUGH
SURFACE PRESSURES ARE FALLING...DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...WILL BE SLOW
TO OCCUR. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 10 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. REGARDLESS OF
DEVELOPMENT...CLOUDINESS AND HEAVY RAINS WILL LIKELY SPREAD OVER
NORTHERN VENEZUELA AND THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS DURING THE
NEXT FEW DAYS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA/BLAKE

[Macrocane]

COLDEST LOWS IN SEVERAL MONTHS IN CENTRAL AMERICA

First of all I want to say that yesterday only 2 stations registered rain in El Salvador the highest amount was 1.4 mm/0.06 inches that's nothing compared with the 60 inches of the previous 10 days. Today is a beautiful sunny, windy and cool day thanks to the cold front, that cold front has caused the minimum temperatures to reach their coldest values since April in some locations, the maximum temperatures remain cooler than normal too.

Minimum Temperatures

Belize city, Belize 21°C (70°F) Coolest since March 22
Mountain Pine Ridge, Belize 17.9°C (64.2°F) Coldest since May 7
Guatemala city, Guatemala 12.8°C (55.0°F)
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala 6.1°C (43.0°F) Coldest since August 6
Zacapa, Guatemala 21°C (70°F)
San Salvador, El Salvador 17.4°C (63.3°F) Coldest since April 28
Las Pilas, El Salvador 11.0°C (51.8°F) Coldest since September 10
San Miguel, El Salvador 20.3°C (68.5°F) Coolest since April 16
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 15°C (59°F) Coldest since April 19
La Esperanza, Honduras 13°C (55°F)
Choluteca, Honduras 21°C (70°F) Coldest since April 14
Managua, Nicaragua 23 °C (73°F)
Jinotega, Nicaragua 17°C (63°F) Coldest since September 20
San Jose, Costa Rica 16.3°C (61.3°F)
Liberia, Costa Rica 21.7°C (71.1°F)
Irazu volcano, Costa Rica 5.5°C (41.9°F)
Panama city, Panama 22.6°C (72.7°F)
Boquete, Panama 12.2°C (54.0°F)

Maximum Temperatures

Belize city, Belize 28°C (82°F)
Mountain Pine Ridge, Belize 24.1°C (75.4°F)
Guatemala city, Guatemala 22°C (72°F)
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala 21°C (69.8°F)
Zacapa, Guatemala 27°C (81°F)
San Salvador, El Salvador 27.2°C (81.0°F)
Las Pilas, El Salvador 14.9°C (58.8°F) Coldest since March 21
San Miguel, El Salvador 30.7°C (87.3°F)
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 22°C (72°F)
La Esperanza, Honduras 16°C (61°F) Coldest since February 14
Choluteca, Honduras 30°C (86°F)
Managua, Nicaragua 27°C (81°F)
Jinotega, Nicaragua 22°C (72°F)
San Jose, Costa Rica 24.1°C (75.4°F)
Liberia, Costa Rica 24.3°C (75.7°F)
Irazu volcano, Costa Rica 12.9°C (55.2°F)
Panama city, Panama 28.6°C (83.5°F)
Boquete, Panama 19.1°C (66.4°F)

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT FRI OCT 21 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA IS CENTERED
ABOUT 170 MILES EAST OF THE COAST OF NICARAGUA. THE ASSOCIATED
SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED...AND THERE IS A
LIKELIHOOD THAT A TROPICAL DEPRESSION WILL FORM DURING THE WEEKEND.
LITTLE MOTION IS ANTICIPATED IN THE SHORT TERM...BUT A SLOW
NORTHWARD DRIFT SHOULD BEGIN ON SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH
CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE HAS FORMED ABOUT 350 MILES
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF TRINIDAD IN THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS.
CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW HAVE BECOME A
LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED AND THE POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT HAS
INCREASED. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING
A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. REGARDLESS OF
DEVELOPMENT...CLOUDINESS AND HEAVY RAINS WILL LIKELY SPREAD OVER
NORTHERN VENEZUELA AND THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS DURING THE
NEXT FEW DAYS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA/BLAKE

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
327 PM AST FRI OCT 21 2011

.SYNOPSIS...A BROAD MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR 22N 58W WILL
CONTINUE TO DIG WEST SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE SW NORTH ATLANTIC THROUGH
TONIGHT...AND THEN WILL RELOCATE JUST NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA BY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON WHILE WEAKENING. THIS U/L FEATURE IS FORECAST TO
QUICKLY WEAKEN BY SUNDAY AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER HIGH
WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION. THE DEEP TROUGH PATTERN ALOFT IS
SUPPORTING AN INDUCED LOW THAT IS IN PHASE WITH A TROPICAL WAVE NOW
ENTERING THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. BOTH PERTURBATIONS IN THE EASTERLIES
WILL MOVE JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA LATER THIS EVENING INTO
SATURDAY MORNING. LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL VEER TO THE SOUTHEAST DURING
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS THE TUTT RETROGRESSES...AN INFLOW OF COLD AIR ALOFT
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OVER THE WARMER WATERS OF THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC...TRIGGERING CLOUDS AND SHOWERS OVER THE REGIONAL WATER AND
PARTS OF THE ISLANDS FROM TIME TO TIME. AFTERNOON CONVECTION THAT IS
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OF PUERTO RICO WILL BE FAST
MOVING AND THEREFORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME. SATURDAY AND POSSIBLY SUNDAY...EXPECT AVAILABLE MOISTURE TO
COMBINE WITH FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS TO RESULT IN SLOW
MOVING AFTERNOON CONVECTION MAINLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND NORTHWESTERN
PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO EACH AFTERNOON.

THE MUCH MORE ACTIVE WEATHER IS EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS AN
AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ITS ASSOCIATED
MOISTURE...ALONG WITH THE MARGINAL UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS WILL RESULT
IN ORGANIZED CONVECTION ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. OPERATIONAL MODELS
SHOWING MOST ACTIVE CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER THE LOCAL CARIBBEAN
WATERS AS WELL AS THE WINDWARD SIDE OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS. FOR NOW...
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AND SEE HOW THIS PATTERN GRADUALLY UNFOLDS...
AND WILL REMAIN CONSERVATIVE ON THE POPS AND WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION...PASSING SHOWERS STILL EXPECTED IN AND AROUND TIST/TISX
AND TJSJ/TJBQ THROUGH ABOUT 21/12Z. SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
AFT 21/16Z OVER THE SOUTHERN SLOPES OF PUERTO RICO...INCLUDING TJMZ
AND TJPS THRU 21/23Z. LLVL WINDS WILL CONTINUE FROM THE NE AT AROUND
10 KTS.

&&

.MARINE...EXPECT WINDS OF 16 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEAS OF 5 FEET OR
LESS ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 74 85 75 86 / 30 30 10 20
STT 75 87 77 87 / 20 20 20 20

[cycloneye]

18z surface analysis by TAFB.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT FRI OCT 21 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA NEAR SAN ANDRES ISLAND...IS PRODUCING WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS AND
SHOWERS. SURFACE PRESSURES ARE FALLING ACROSS THIS REGION...AND
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE FAVORABLE FOR A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION TO FORM OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH
CHANCE...70 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT DRIFTS SLOWLY NORTHWARD DURING THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DECREASED IN ASSOCIATION WITH A BROAD
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST
OF THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE
MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS
AS IT MOVES SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...
CLOUDINESS AND HEAVY RAINS COULD SPREAD OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS
AND NORTHERN VENEZUELA DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN

[cycloneye]

Good morning. Still watching the two invests to see what they will do in the next couple of days.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
537 AM AST SAT OCT 22 2011

.SYNOPSIS...MID TO UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL LIFT WEST NORTHWEST TO A
POSITION JUST NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT...AND WILL THEN LIFT FURTHER NORTH AND GRADUALLY FILL
SUNDAY. A MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL TRY TO EXTEND ACROSS THE
FA SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. AT LOW LEVELS...A
SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE SLOWLY WEST ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA TODAY
THROUGH TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY...WITH BROAD TROUGHINESS
GENERALLY LINGERING ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN LATER SUNDAY
THROUGH MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR TODAY...A DRIER AIR MASS LOCATED JUST NORTH OF
THE LOCAL AREA EARLY THIS MORNING...WILL TRY TO ENCOMPASS THE
FA...BUT THIS WILL BE A SLOW PROCESS AND THERE STILL SHOULD BE
ENOUGH MOISTURE AROUND TO COMBINE WITH LOCAL EFFECTS AND FAVORABLE
UPPER LEVEL SPEED DIVERGENCE...TO PRODUCE SOME CLOUDINESS...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE
LOCAL ISLANDS. MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH
MOST IF NOT ALL OF SUNDAY...BUT STILL WITH SOME LOCALIZED
CONVECTION EXPECTED. THEN...FOR SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT AND PROBABLY MOST OF TUESDAY...MUCH DEEPER MOISTURE
WILL ADVECT WEST TOWARD AND THEN ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA...RESULTING
IN AN OVERALL INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FA.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS
AND AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER...BRIEF
MVFR CONDITIONS AND LOCAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ARE EXPECTED IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...EXPECT WINDS OF 16 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEAS OF 6 FEET OR
LESS ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 86 74 87 77 / 30 10 20 20
STT 86 76 88 78 / 20 20 20 50

[Gustywind]

Loop.

[Gustywind]

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT SAT OCT 22 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A NEARLY STATIONARY
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR SAN
ANDRES ISLAND HAVE NOT BECOME ANY BETTER ORGANIZED SINCE YESTERDAY.
ALTHOUGH SURFACE PRESSURES HAVE CONTINUED TO FALL IN THE
AREA...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE A LITTLE BIT LESS
FAVORABLE FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR
TWO. HOWEVER...THIS SYSTEM STILL HAS A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...
OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES EAST OF
THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED CLOUDINESS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS ACTIVITY HAS BEEN GRADUALLY DECREASING
SINCE YESTERDAY...AND DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...WILL BE SLOW TO OCCUR.
THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT SAT OCT 22 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA IS NOW
LOCATED A LITTLE BIT LESS THAN 100 MILES NORTHEAST OF SAN ANDRES
ISLAND. THE LOW IS CURRENTLY DRIFTING NORTHWARD...BUT STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE NORTH SHOULD FORCE THE LOW TO MOVE TOWARD CENTRAL
AMERICA ON SUNDAY. CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS REMAIN DISORGANIZED...AND
ALTHOUGH THE POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT IS DIMINISHING...THIS SYSTEM
COULD STILL BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION BEFORE IT INTERACTS WITH
CENTRAL AMERICA DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS SYSTEM NOW HAS A
MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT HEAVY RAINS SHOULD
CONTINUE PRIMARILY OVER HONDURAS AND NICARAGUA.

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES EAST
OF THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS. THERE ARE NO SIGNS OF
ORGANIZATION...AND DEVELOPMENT IS UNLIKELY. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW
CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
247 PM AST SAT OCT 22 2011

.SYNOPSIS...A BROAD UPPER LOW/TUTT NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA WILL
CONTINUE TO WEAKEN DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS U/L FEATURE WILL
BE REPLACE BY A MID/UPPER HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EARLY NEXT WEEK. AT
LOW LEVELS...A SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE SLOWLY WEST ACROSS THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY...WITH BROAD
TROUGHINESS GENERALLY LINGERING THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AS WELL AS SATELLITE BLENDED TPW
INDICATED A DRY AIRMASS IN THE MID LEVELS AND MORNING TJSJ SOUNDING
CONFIRMED THIS WITH DRYING ABOVE 800 MB AND PW OF 1.50 INCHES. THERE
IS A SHALLOW LAYER OF MOISTURE BETWEEN 800 AND 1000 MB SEEN IN THE
GFS CROSS-SECTION AS WELL AS IN THE 12Z RAOB. HOWEVER...STRONG
DAYTIME HEATING AND FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS HAVE COMBINED TO
PRODUCE INTENSE AND SLOW MOVING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
PARTS OF THE ISLANDS THIS AFTERNOON...PARTICULARLY OVER THE EASTERN
INTERIOR AND SOUTH OF THE SAN JUAN METRO AREA. THIS ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO DIMINISH NEAR SUNSET TONIGHT. THE WEATHER PATTERN IS
NOT EXPECTED TO CHANGE TOO MUCH TOMORROW...WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
IN THE MORNING AND THEN AFTERNOON CONVECTION ACROSS INTERIOR AND
WEST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO.

MUCH MORE ACTIVE WEATHER IS EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS A BROAD
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE NOW LOCATED SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES EAST OF THE
SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS MOVES OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN JUST
SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ITS
ASSOCIATED MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN ORGANIZED CONVECTION ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK. OPERATIONAL MODELS SHOW THE MOST
ACTIVE CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER THE LOCAL CARIBBEAN WATERS AND
USVI AS WELL AS THE EAST AND SOUTH SECTIONS OF THE PUERTO RICO
STARTING MONDAY MORNING AND THEN SPREADING TO THE CENTRAL AND
WESTERN PUERTO RICO LATE MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...CLOUDINESS ASSOCIATED WITH SCT-ISOLD SHRA/TSRA OVR
INTERIOR SECTIONS OF PR WILL DIMINISH/DISSIPATE AROUND SUNSET
LEAVING MOSTLY CLR SKIES. THEREAFTER...VFR CONDS XPCD AT ALL TAF
SITES DURG THE NXT 24 HRS...WITH FEW PASSING SHRA OVR COASTAL WATERS
BTW PR AND NRN LEEWARDS OVERNIGHT TIL AT LEAST 23/12Z. NO SIG
OPERATIONAL WX HAZARDS ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. A LGT SE WND FLOW
OF LESS THAN 10 KTS BLO 15 KFT BCMG FM W AT 10-15 KTS ABV.

&&

.MARINE...CONDITIONS REMAIN TRANQUIL WITH ESE TO SE WINDS LESS THAN 15
KNOTS THROUGH THE PERIOD AND SEAS OF 2 TO 5 FEET. A SMALL NORTHEAST
SWELL WILL REACH THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS AND THE CARIBBEAN PASSAGE
EARLY MONDAY MORNING.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 74 86 76 87 / 10 20 20 50
STT 75 87 78 88 / 20 20 50 50

[Ptarmigan]

Wow some of those totals are nearly 50" of rain!! That's unbelievable sorry to hear about all the loss of life and damage.

Thanks for those words PTrackerLA, as cycloneye mentioned a drier pattern is now in place, and nice northerly winds have been blowing today, the skies have become a little dark this afternoon but only isolated showers are expected. Anyway the government is still assessing the damage from the rain event that lasted for 10 days and ended yesterday, the death toll increased as 2 people were drowned yesterday, according to the update given by the government today the effects of the disaster are:

-34 fatalities
-Almost 56000 people are in shelters.
-10% (2000 km2) of the territory was flooded
-181 municipalities were affected by mudslides and floods, that's 70% of all the municipalities in the country.
-4 bridges were destroyed and 14 damaged.
-879 significant mudslides occurred, that's 38000 cubic meters of mud.

Here's the link (in Spanish): Informe de acciones y atención de la emergencia

The highest accumulation of rain from this event occurred in Huizucar with 1513 mm/59.57 inches in only 10 days, and as I've said before that's makes this event the wettest in El Salvador's history by far. Just to give you an idea the normal annual rainfall in El Salvador is 1800 mm, so in 10 days it rained almost as much as an entire year. This map shows the total rainfall from this event

http://img249.imageshack.us/img249/3789 ... 0deoct.jpg

That's a lot of rain! That's even more rain than Mitch.