Caribbean - Central America Weather

[BZSTORM]

Hi everyone still no got my internet back yet, driving me crazy especially with these 2 invests out there. Trying to monitor best I can when I can grab me some internet. Whatever these systems do cerntral America doesnt need anymore rain adn I figure same for most of the carib islands right now. everyone keep safe. Macrocane its been pretty cold heree on the southern coast of Belize though last night was slightly warmer than the night before but then there was barely any breeze, unlike night before wehn it felt like we had at least 15knot winds.

[Macrocane]

Yep, the cool lows and nice highs are still in place today in our region BZSTORM, this is a summary of the temperatures registered yesterday in Central America:

Minimum Temperatures
Belize city, Belize 20°C (68°F) Coolest since March 22
Mountain Pine Ridge, Belize 15.6°C (60.1°F) Coldest since March 14
Guatemala city, Guatemala 12.2°C (54.0°F) Coldest since March 29
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala 8°C (46°F)
Zacapa, Guatemala 20°C (68°F) Coolest since May 8
San Salvador, El Salvador 18.1°C (64.6°F)
Las Pilas, El Salvador 10.7°C (51.3°F) Coldest since September 10
San Miguel, El Salvador 20.4°C (68.7°F)
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 16°C (61°F)
La Esperanza, Honduras 12°C (54°F)
Choluteca, Honduras 22°C (72°F)
Managua, Nicaragua 22°C (72°F) Coolest since September 14
Jinotega, Nicaragua 19°C (66°F)
San Jose, Costa Rica 16.4°C (61.5°F)
Liberia, Costa Rica 21.9°C (71.4°F)
Irazu volcano, Costa Rica 4.5°C (40.1°F)
Panama city, Panama 22.8°C (73.0°F)
Boquete, Panama 12.4°C (54.3°F)

Maximum Temperatures
Belize city, Belize 28°C (82°F)
Mountain Pine Ridge, Belize 24.1°C (75.4°F)
Guatemala city, Guatemala 22°C (72°F)
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala 21°C (70°F)
Zacapa, Guatemala 29°C (84°F)
San Salvador, El Salvador 27.9°C (82.2°F)
Las Pilas, El Salvador 16.9°C (62.4°F)
San Miguel, El Salvador 30.5°C (86.9°F)
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 23°C (73°F)
La Esperanza, Honduras 16°C (61°F)
Choluteca, Honduras 29°C (84°F)
Managua, Nicaragua 28°C (82°F)
Jinotega, Nicaragua 24°C (75°F)
San Jose, Costa Rica 22.3°C (72.1°F)
Liberia, Costa Rica 27.2°C (81.0°F)
Irazu volcano, Costa Rica 8.7°C (47.7°F) Coolest since July 29
Panama city, Panama 29.9°C (85.8°F)
Boquete, Panama 16.2°C (61.2°F)

[Macrocane]

That's a lot of rain! That's even more rain than Mitch.

Yes Ptarmigan it's astonishing as Dr. Jeff Master mentioned in his discussion today:

Death toll from Central American rains rises to 105
“I want to tell the world that El Salvador is going through one of the most dramatic disasters in its history,” President Mauricio Funes said on national radio and television Wednesday night, as he appealed for international aid. A week of torrential rains across Central America have triggered extreme floods and landslides that have killed 105 people, according to media reports. El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras and Nicaragua have declared states of emergency due to the disaster. El Salvador and Guatemala have seen the worst flooding, with 34 and 38 people killed, respectively. Another 18 have died in Honduras, 13 in Nicaragua, and 5 in Costa Rica. The rains were due to a large area of low pressure that was moistened by the landfall of Tropical Depression 12-E near the Mexico/Guatemala border last week. Contributing to the record-intensity rains were ocean temperatures off the coast of El Salvador that were 0.5 - 1°C above average during the first half of October, allowing more water vapor than usual to evaporate into the air. Over the past ten days, rainfall amounts of over a meter (39.4") have fallen over a large area of southwest El Salvador (Figure 2.) At Huizucar, an astonishing 1.513 meters (4.96 feet) of rain fell in the past ten days.

I'll have a new post on Sunday.

Jeff Masters

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT SAT OCT 22 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A LOW PRESSURE AREA IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...LOCATED
ABOUT 200 MILES MILES SOUTHEAST OF THE NICARAGUAN/HONDURAN
BORDER...HAS CHANGED LITTLE DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. WHILE
THE SURFACE CIRCULATION IS BETTER DEFINED THAN IT WAS 24 HOURS
AGO...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY REMAINS LIMITED. THIS
DISTURBANCE COULD STILL BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION AS IT MOVES
SLOWLY NORTHWARD AND THEN NORTHWESTWARD INTO FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS
SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO PRIMARILY
AFFECT PORTIONS OF HONDURAS AND NICARAGUA THROUGH MONDAY.

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS PRODUCING CLOUDINESS AND SCATTERED
SHOWERS SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES EAST OF THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD
ISLANDS. THERE CONTINUE TO BE NO SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION...AND ANY
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE IS LIKELY TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR. THIS
SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD
AND THEN WEST-NORTHWESTWARD.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
959 PM AST SAT OCT 22 2011

.DISCUSSION...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO INHERITED FORECAST. MOST
OF ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH
RESPONSIBLE FOR SATURDAY`S AFTERNOON CONVECTION IS LIFTING
NORTHEAST TONIGHT LEAVING MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS FOR PR AND USVI
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. GFS BRINGING RELATIVELY DRY AIR FOR
SUNDAY...BUT SOME LOCALIZED CONVECTION SHOULD BE EXPECTED DURING
THE AFTERNOON. INCREASING MOISTURE IS EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY AHEAD OF A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WHICH IS PRODUCING
CLOUDINESS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES EAST OF THE
SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS. ALTHOUGH THE BRUNT OF THE WEATHER
SHOULD REMAIN OVER THE CARIBBEAN SOUTH OF PR/USVI MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY...ITS NORTHERN FRINGES WILL AFFECT THE AREA
RESULTING IN AN INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS.

[cycloneye]

Good morning.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
538 AM AST SUN OCT 23 2011

.SYNOPSIS...A MID TO UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL LIFT FURTHER NORTH AND
AWAY FROM THE AREA...AND GRADUALLY FILL TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. A
MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL THEN EXTEND ACROSS THE FA TONIGHT
AND MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. AT LOW LEVELS...A BROAD
AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL LINGER ACROSS THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR TODAY THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT...EXPECT SOMEWHAT
LIMITED AVAILABLE MOISTURE TO COMBINE WITH LOCAL EFFECTS TO
PRODUCE SOME CLOUDINESS...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS. THEN...FOR
LATER TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT AND PROBABLY MOST OF
TUESDAY...ALTHOUGH BRUNT OF BROAD AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN SOUTH OF THE FA...MUCH DEEPER MOISTURE WILL
STILL MOVE TOWARD AND THEN ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA...RESULTING IN A
MORE ACTIVE SPELL OF WEATHER...WITH AN OVERALL INCREASE IN
CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FA. FOR
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...A SLIGHTLY DRIER
OVERALL AIR MASS IS INDICATED BUT STILL EXPECT SOME CLOUDINESS...
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOCAL TAF
SITES AT LEAST UNTIL 23/17Z WHEN TSRA ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS TJMZ...
AND IN THE VICINITY OF TJPS...TJBQ AND EVEN TJSJ...CAUSING TEMPO
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE EARLY IN THE
MORNING THEN BECOMING MORE EASTERLY AT 10 KTS OR LESS AFTER
23/13Z.

&&

.MARINE...EXPECT WINDS OF 18 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEAS OF 6 FEET OR
LESS ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY. A SMALL
NORTHEAST SWELL WILL REACH THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS AND THE
CARIBBEAN PASSAGES EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 86 75 88 77 / 20 20 50 50
STT 87 78 88 79 / 20 50 50 60

[Gustywind]

[Gustywind]

Loop.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT SUN OCT 23 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
CENTERED ABOUT 150 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE NICARAGUA AND
HONDURAS BORDER HAVE CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION EARLY THIS
MORNING. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME A
LITTLE MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
COULD FORM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH
CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY NORTHWARD AND THEN NORTHWESTWARD.
REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS
COULD AFFECT PORTIONS OF HONDURAS AND NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA
THROUGH MONDAY.

A BROAD LOW PRESSURE AREA CONTINUES TO PRODUCE DISORGANIZED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES EAST OF THE SOUTHERN
WINDWARD ISLANDS. DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...OF THIS DISTURBANCE IS
LIKELY TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS
AS IT MOVES SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD AND THEN WEST-NORTHWESTWARD.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN/PASCH

[cycloneye]

Interesting discussion of 96L by Rob of Crown Weather.

http://www.crownweather.com/?page_id=4557

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
238 PM AST SUN OCT 23 2011

.SYNOPSIS...RETROGRESSING TUTT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN TODAY...AND GRADUALLY FILL AS IT LIFTS FURTHER
NORTH OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. UPPER HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE WILL THEN BUILD AND REESTABLISHES ITSELF OVER THE NORTHEAST
CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. THE UPPER
TROUGH IS INTERACTING WITH THE ITCZ AND A BROAD SURFACE TROUGH NOW
EXTENDING NORTH AND WEST INTO THE CENTRAL AND EAST CARIBBEAN. THIS
BROAD TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE WESTWARD
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THIS PATTERN WILL HELP MAINTAIN
A FAIRLY WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA... RESULTING IN LIGHT
TRADE WINDS. THE PRESENT WIND FLOW WILL BRING OCCASIONAL SURGES OF
TROPICAL MOISTURE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...AND THUS LEAD TO AN
OVERALL INCREASE IN PWAT VALUES THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE PRESENCE OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND WEAK RIDGING IN
PLACE WILL PROVIDE SUFFICIENT VENTILATION AND SUPPORT FOR SOME
ENHANCED LATE AFTERNOON CONVECTION ONCE AGAIN TODAY. PERIODS OF
MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN ISOLATED AREAS WILL
REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF PUERTO RICO...AND TO A LESSER
EXTENT OVER SOME OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. PREVIOUS GFS MODEL
GUIDANCE INITIALIZED WELL TODAY...AND STILL SUGGEST A FAIRLY MOIST
WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY. GOOD INFLUX OF TRADE
WIND MOISTURE...COMBINED WITH LOCAL AND DIURNAL EFFECTS... AND
ADDITIONAL MOISTURE ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE BROAD SURFACE
TROUGH...WILL AID IN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT EACH DAY
ACROSS THE ISLANDS. THERE IS GOOD LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY AND FAIR
AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...SO EXPECT CONTINUED AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE ENHANCEMENT
ESPECIALLY OVER PUERTO RICO. AS A RESULT PERIODS OF MODERATE TO
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL MAY LEAD TO URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING
IN ISOLATED SPOTS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAY AND LEAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

THEREAFTER...THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE NORTH AND SOUTHWEST
ATLANTIC...IS FORECAST TO BUILD SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION ONCE AGAIN.
THIS WILL BRING A RETURN OF MODERATE EAST TO NORTHEAST TRADE WINDS
ONCE AGAIN OVER THE LOCAL AREA. BY THEN A MORE TYPICAL PATTERN OF
EARLY MORNING PASSING TRADE WIND SHOWERS AND DIURNALLY INDUCED
AFTERNOON CONVECTION IN ISOLATED SPOTS IS FORECAST...BUT NO MAJOR
WEATHER FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE LOCAL AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOCAL
TAF SITES THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. AFTERNOON CONVECTION OVER THE
INTERIOR PORTIONS OF PR COULD RESULT IN MVFR CONDS ACROSS TJMZ LATER
THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL DECREASE RAPIDLY AFT 23/22Z.
LATEST MDCRS SOUNDING AT 09/17Z INDICATED MAINLY VARIABLE WINDS AT
LESS THAN 10 KTS FROM THE SFC TO 20 KFT.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 76 87 76 87 / 20 50 40 40
STT 78 88 79 88 / 50 60 60 60

[cycloneye]

BZSTORM,you are in the cone,so be on alert there for TD18/Rina.

[cycloneye]

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION GETTING BETTER ORGANIZED OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.1N 82.0W
ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM NE OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON NIC/HON BORDER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES

[cycloneye]

8 PM TWO

A BROAD LOW PRESSURE AREA LOCATED ABOUT 185 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF
BARBADOS IS PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS.
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE ONLY MARGINALLY FAVORABLE AND DEVELOPMENT...
IF ANY...OF THIS DISTURBANCE SHOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR. HOWEVER...
THE LOW WILL PRODUCE BRIEF PERIODS OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND
GUSTY WINDS IN THE WINDWARD ISLANDS TONIGHT AND INTO MONDAY. THIS
SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
ABOUT 10 MPH.

[cycloneye]

BZSTORM,it looks liike Rina will track away from your location,but still watch it just in case it moves more closer.

...DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS INTO A TROPICAL STORM OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...HEAVY RAINS AFFECTING NORTHEASTERN
HONDURAS...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.4N 82.2W
ABOUT 115 MI...190 KM NE OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON NIC/HON BORDER
ABOUT 210 MI...340 KM SSW OF GRAND CAYMAN
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES

[cycloneye]

Good morning. Scattered showers for parts of the Eastern Caribbean today as 97L moves thru.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
506 AM AST MON OCT 24 2011

.SYNOPSIS...AN ELONGATED MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL EXTEND
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND PROBABLY
THURSDAY TOO. AT LOW LEVELS...A BROAD SURFACE TROUGH AND AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN THROUGH
TUESDAY...BUT THE LOW ITSELF IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN MAINLY SOUTH
OF THE FA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT AND PROBABLY THROUGH MOST OF
TUESDAY...ALTHOUGH THE BULK OF WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH THE BROAD
AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SOUTH OF THE FA
AND DESPITE EXPANDING MID TO UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE...MUCH
DEEPER MOISTURE WILL STILL MOVE TOWARD AND THEN ACROSS THE LOCAL
AREA AND WILL COMBINE LOCAL EFFECTS TO PRODUCE A MORE ACTIVE
PERIOD OF WEATHER...WITH AN OVERALL INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS...
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FA. THEN...FOR TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...A SLIGHTLY DRIER OVERALL
AIR MASS IS INDICATED BUT THERE WILL STILL BE AREAS AND PATCHES OF
MOISTURE MOVING ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA FROM TIME TO TIME...
RESULTING IN INTERVALS OF CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOCAL TAF
SITES THROUGH AT LEAST MID MORNING. HOWEVER...VCSH WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS TNCM...TKPK...TIST...AND TISX DUE TO PASSING
SHOWERS. THIS AFTERNOON...TSRA ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS TJMZ...AND IN
THE VICINITY OF TJPS...TJBQ AND EVEN TJSJ...CAUSING TEMPO MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE EARLY IN THE MORNING
THEN BECOMING MORE EASTERLY AT 10 KTS AFTER 24/14Z.

&&

.MARINE...EXPECT WINDS OF 19 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEAS OF 6 FEET OR
LESS ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY. SMALL
BOAT OPERATORS SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION ACROSS MOST OF THE LOCAL
COASTAL WATERS TODAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 87 77 88 76 / 50 40 40 30
STT 88 79 88 79 / 60 60 60 50

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT MON OCT 24 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM RINA...LOCATED ABOUT 135 MILES NORTH-NORTHEAST OF THE
NICARAGUA-HONDURAS BORDER.

A BROAD LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS...BONAIRE...AND CURACAO. THESE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE PERIODS OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND
GUSTY WINDS TODAY AND TONIGHT. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE ONLY
MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT AND THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW
CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS/BROWN

[cycloneye]

BZSTORM,continue to be on alert over there.


BULLETIN
HURRICANE RINA SPECIAL ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182011
200 PM EDT MON OCT 24 2011

...RINA QUICKLY BECOMES A HURRICANE...ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS
EXPECTED...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.1N 83.0W
ABOUT 195 MI...310 KM SW OF GRAND CAYMAN
ABOUT 360 MI...580 KM ESE OF CHETUMAL MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.26 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN BELIZE...THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...
AND THE ADJACENT ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF RINA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE RINA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 17.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 83.0 WEST. RINA IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 5 MPH...7 KM/H...AND A TURN TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY.

REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE
THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 75 MPH...
120 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. RINA IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON
THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING
IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AND RINA IS FORECAST TO BECOME
A MAJOR HURRICANE BY LATE TUESDAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES...30 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115
MILES...185 KM.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT WAS 991 MB...29.26 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...RINA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4
INCHES OVER THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN/ROBERTS

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
255 PM AST MON OCT 24 2011

.SYNOPSIS...MID/UPPER HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER
THE NORTH AND SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. AT LOW
LEVELS...A SURFACE LOW OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WILL BRING A SURGE
OF MOISTURE AS WELL AS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOCAL
REGION TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A 1008 MB SURFACE LOW
THAT IS CENTERED OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS JUST W OF GRENADA. THIS
LOW CONTINUES TO PUSH INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN PASSING MAINLY
SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA. ALTHOUGH THE BRUNT OF THE WEATHER SHOULD
REMAIN OVER THE CARIBBEAN SOUTH OF PR AND USVI THROUGH EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING...ITS NORTHERN FRINGES WILL AFFECT THE AREA
RESULTING IN AN INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TONIGHT AND LINGERING THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. LOOK FOR
IMPROVING CONDITIONS LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...AS THE RIDGE
OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC BUILDS...AND SUBSIDENCE CAP STRENGTHENS...
EXPECTING RAPID EROSION OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE. AS A RESULT...A
RETURN OF MODERATE EAST TO NORTHEAST TRADE WINDS ONCE AGAIN OVER
THE LOCAL AREA. BY THEN A MORE TYPICAL PATTERN OF EARLY MORNING
PASSING TRADE WIND SHOWERS AND DIURNALLY INDUCED AFTERNOON
CONVECTION IN ISOLATED SPOTS IS FORECAST...BUT NO MAJOR WEATHER
FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE LOCAL AREA BETWEEN LATE WEDNESDAY
AND THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOCAL TAF SITES
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. HOWEVER...SHRA/TSRA ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
TJMZ...TJPS...AND VCNTY TJBQ AND TJSJ...CAUSING TEMPO MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS TIL AT LEAST 24/22Z. ALSO...PASSING SHRA/ISOLD TSRA EN
ROUTE BTW ERN PR AND THE LESSER ANTILLES ACCOMPANYING AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE MOV ACROSS THE ERN CARIBBEAN.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 87 77 87 77 / 40 40 40 50
STT 88 78 88 78 / 40 60 60 50

[BZSTORM]

BZSTORM,it looks liike Rina will track away from your location,but still watch it just in case it moves more closer.

...DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS INTO A TROPICAL STORM OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...HEAVY RAINS AFFECTING NORTHEASTERN
HONDURAS...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.4N 82.2W
ABOUT 115 MI...190 KM NE OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON NIC/HON BORDER
ABOUT 210 MI...340 KM SSW OF GRAND CAYMAN
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES

Hope to get internet back this evening.............was major shock to hear this was hanging off the coast of Belize. Dont worry watching as Oct storms have habit of tracking South in last 12hrs b4 landfall. Mitch, Iris both did this and today is my wedding anniversay ironic that on this day 13yrs ago I was camped in a car waiting to run in case Mitch stopped drifting south & headed into South Belize. Just saw something on model thread that GFS 12z run has Rina looping back into Belize????? that would be a Hurr Hatti senario, from what the old folk here tell what happened. Atr least these days most people have TV, phone and radio, back then Seine Bight villlage didnt have any warning, which is why so many people died, most didnt even know about surge and were out picking fish when wave came back in.