Florida Weather

[gatorcane]

looks like a pretty intense cell heading towards Palm Harbor. Bulk of the activity is south of Pinellas into Sarasota.

[TheStormExpert]

It's been a rather cool mid-late March day across S. FL with temperatures ranging anywhere from the low-mid 60's across the southern half of the peninsula. What is even more impressive for this time of year are the dewpoints which have ranged anywhere from the mid 20's to low 40's as of 5pm. Relative humidity has been low making it feel pleasant yet cool out with a gusty Northerly wind at about 15-20mph.

Hope everyone is enjoying this last cool blast as much as possible(I know I'm trying to) because at this point this may be our last. Haven't checked the latest model runs yet so you never know if Mother Nature has anymore suprises in store.

[TheStormExpert]

Well most of the Oak Trees have already shed their leaves and are already blooming with new leaves, there are also some that have yet to catch up with the changing season as seen in the picture below and are basically as bare as can be.

[NDG]

That El Niño pattern for sure was very short lived and lasted only about 4-5 weeks. Just as quick as it came it left! Fortunately we will not have to deal with any severe weather it seems during these spring months like originally thought, of course with that comes a price, below average precipitation should be expected nearly statewide through the next month or two until the rainy season starts around mid-late May. I am NOT buying the CPC Precipitation Outlooks as they probably are way too bullish for some reason.

All in all, at least most of the state lucked out with any really significant severe weather unlike the previous strong El Niño, this was all thanks IMO to the Godzilla El Niño dying rather faster than expected. Though Broward County here in S. FL got hit pretty hard back in the early half of February by multiple tornadoes.

As you can see El Niño's lagging effects are not gone yet, they have become less frequent, looking at analog years definitely is not until May or June that the weather turns drier than average.

[gatorcane]

Quite a nasty storm that impacted NE Broward and SE Palm Beach including Boca Raton yesterday evening. Widespread street flooding, lots of lightning and wind gusts up to 40mph. There was rotation noted on radar but it doesn't appear a tornado formed, one of the more intense storms I have seen in a while. So Yes El Nino effects still continue even though El Nino is not as strong as it once was a few months ago.

[psyclone]

Tampa bay folks...get ready to duck and cover as a borderline svr squall line is blasting in from the gulf...

[Sanibel]

Hope that stays above us. We need to dry out.

[gatorcane]

Well more copious amounts of rain for my locale as more storms rolling through in what really is a summer-time-like regime with SW flow and heating of the day triggering storm development. Between today's storms and yesterday evening's storm, we must be over 6+ inches and increasing in just a couple of hours if rainfall. It's been quite dry for the past month so these rains are welcome but maybe would have preferred the rain to be more spread out than all at once!

[NDG]

Big time storms across parts of central Florida today once again, Osceola County hit hard again.


https://www.facebook.com/deedee.ross.12 ... 437548951/

[northjaxpro]

Happy Easter everyone. Still getting off and on periods of rain here across Northern Florida. There is a large area of rain and storms early this morning to our west and southwest moving east, and this will most assuredly bring wet conditions here in Jax by late morning into the afternoon. One good benefit of these periods of rain is that it is effectively washing out the pollen in the air thankfully.

Looking medium range within the next 7-10 days, teleconnections are pointing to a potential -AO and -NAO set up over North America with the potential of the polar vortex sinking south from Hudson Bay to the northern portions of the Great Lakes. This could bring unseasonably cold air, in some areas potentially record breaking cold for this time of year, across the Midwest and Eastern CONUS beginning by next weekend. For now, the core of the coldest air should stay confined to the Great Lakes, Northeast U.S and the Mid-Atlantic regions. I may see a bit cooler weather here in Jax and across the rest of the northern peninsula by early next week. Thankfully, the stronger sun angle and longer days will modify the colder air mass dropping south next week, but the models still show an impressive polar surge nonetheless. This is definitely worth following as time progresses seeing potentially a very significant, late season cold spell across a good portion of the CONUS.

Take these GFS and EURO runs 8 days out for whatever it is worth folks:

[TheStormExpert]

Happy Easter to you too northjaxpro!

According to the teleconnections forecasts on the CPC site there are no signs of the NAO going Negative over the next two weeks. The AO on the other hand trends toward the Neutral mark and possibly into weak Negative territory two weeks out FWIW. Also the PNA stays nearly Neutral over the next two weeks. What are you seeing northjaxpro?

[NDG]

Hopefully that forecasted big chill for the NE US late next weekend will come down to FL to at least cool us down back down to at least average.

Way too warm and humid for this time of the year, at 10 PM it was still 80 deg F across parts of the Orlando area.


Conditions at: KSFB (SANFORD/ORLANDO , FL, US) observed 0153 UTC 28 March 2016
Temperature: 26.7°C (80°F)
Dewpoint: 19.4°C (67°F) [RH = 64%]
Pressure (altimeter): 30.05 inches Hg (1017.7 mb)
[Sea-level pressure: 1017.3 mb]
Winds: from the WSW (240 degrees) at 8 MPH (7 knots; 3.6 m/s)
Visibility: 10 or more miles (16+ km)
Ceiling: at least 12,000 feet AGL
Clouds: few clouds at 8500 feet AGL
Weather: no significant weather observed at this time

[northjaxpro]

:uarrow: Happy Easter to you too northjaxpro!

According to the teleconnections forecasts on the CPC site there are no signs of the NAO going Negative over the next two weeks. The AO on the other hand trends toward the Neutral mark and possibly into weak Negative territory two weeks out FWIW. Also the PNA stays nearly Neutral over the next two weeks. What are you seeing northjaxpro?

I was referencing the immediate 7-10 day forecast period There are ndications of a -AO developing in this period, but it will be brief. A warm up is anticipated by mid April. My assesment is from now not going past the 10 day point up to April 6. Now, the time thereafter, the indices are forecast to be what you posted above StormExpert. I did accidentally lump the indices tanking together as it is only the -AO, which appears to be briefly tanking this immediate period at the beginning of April. I was not paying attention and did not realize it yesterday. Happens to the best of us every once in awhile..lol.

The NAO refuses to go in the tank for any length of time though, which has been the case seemingly forever. .

[northjaxpro]

Over 2 inches of rainfall was measured yesterday at my ponderosa. Looks like we will get a reprieve from the rain for a few days. At least the pollen has been greatly reduced here with these recent rains.

[northjaxpro]

:uarrow: Happy Easter to you too northjaxpro!

According to the teleconnections forecasts on the CPC site there are no signs of the NAO going Negative over the next two weeks. The AO on the other hand trends toward the Neutral mark and possibly into weak Negative territory two weeks out FWIW. Also the PNA stays nearly Neutral over the next two weeks. What are you seeing northjaxpro?

I was referencing the immediate 7-10 day forecast period There are indications of a -AO developing in this period, but it will be brief. A warm up is anticipated by mid April. My assesment is from now not going past the 10 day point up to April 6. Now, the time thereafter, the indices are forecast to be what you posted above StormExpert. I did accidentally lump the indices tanking together as it is only the -AO, which is briefly tanking this immediate period at the beginning of April. I was not paying attention and did not realize it yesterday. Happens to the best of us every once in awhile..lol.

The NAO refuses to go in the tank for any length of time though, which has been the case seemingly forever. .

[NDG]

Yeap, the NAO refuses to go negative.
Last night's 0z Euro is not as cold for the NE US as previous runs, FL will probably just get some refreshing NE winds off the Atlantic from a back door cold front as it usually happens in April when we see Canadian Highs push off from the Eastern US into the Atlantic Ocean.

BTW, our lows this morning here in the Orlando area only dropped to the low 70s, very muggy and summer like.

[HURRICANELONNY]

Models haven't been doing to well with convection/ storms down here in S.Fl. Lawn could use some rain. Maybe tomorrow. Cold front washing out should lead to some rain.

[TheStormExpert]

Once again the Subtropical Jet can be seen blasting clouds from West to East across S. FL on visible satellite proving that the lagging effects of the once very strong Godzilla El Niño are still present(although weaker).

[psyclone]

tomorrow could get interesting over south florida. the spc has a marginal risk in that area based upon a disturbance in the western gulf propagating eastward. there's been a decent uptick in lightning out there with clusters of storms that are moving in that general direction. I'd be watching tomorrow if I were in the MIA CWA...points north of there may partake as well. these events can sneak up on us and outperform.

[HURRICANELONNY]

I hope I get rain. My car needs a wash. Hopefully not severe but I love the sound of good thunderstorm.